Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVII (continued)

[CDN24]

Leafs were better off sitting Willy and not burning a year of his contract for nothing.

No NHL player has missed more than a month of the season and came back to put up great stats. Historically, sitting out is a stat killer.

There have been some. In 1993-94 Steve Larmer skipped camp and sat out a bit more than a month demanding a trade from the Hawks. He went on to put up .88 PPg with the rangers and win the cup compared to .83PPG the year before. Had he not sat out he probably would have beaten jarvis' iron man streak that year.

In 1998 Pavel bure sat out most of the year demanding a trade out of Vancouver. Finally in the winter he was traded to the Panthers only playing 13 games that year after sitting out. He scored 16 goals in those 13 games- didn't seem too rusty. Traded in January but limited to 13 games because of an injury I think.

Edit Paul Coffey held out with edm for a trade. Traded at end of November. put up 1.46 PPG with pitt compared to 1.13 PPG year before.

 

[AustrianHockeyfan]

This is only my opinion: Marner is not worth what Matthews is worth. I know he had more points but he played with a superstar whilst Matthews had to carry his linemates. Also Matthews is a Franchise Center they are worth more than wingers. Could live with 10 mill plus but never 11 mill... 4 Firsts won't be bad either. Or getting a second very good D Men. I think I would actually do Marner and a First for Seth Jones.

I hate this offseason at the moment. You finally have a filthy team and then all those young guys pretenting to be superstars already start bitching around for 1 mill. Heck 10 mill is more then enough. Imagine getting that shit for 1 year. One year! No it's not enough I want 11. f*** off men they don't see how lucky they are do they?

 

[Confucius]

Next CBA has Arbitration rights for ELC expiring players.

Problem solved.

Just like that?What would the players giveup for that?

 

[CDN24]

Just like that he? What would the p,Ayers giveup for that?

Probably nothing, I think arbitration rights (either side can elect) benefits owners just as much as players.

 

[Confucius]

Leafs have all the power here, if Mitch doesn't sign by opening night, he could be very well sitting on the sidelines for 2 years. And if he ever comes back he still owes 4 rfa years.

Not to mention he isnt doing his team any favors by dragging this out.

 

[Confucius]

Probably nothing, I think arbitration rights (either side can elect) benefits owners just as much as players.

No it doesn't, not having arbitration rights is a big plus to management

 

[CDN24]

No it doesn't, not having arbitration rights is a big plus to management

In this situation I think the Leafs would love to be able to push this to arbitration to get one year resolved at least.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

This is only my opinion: Marner is not worth what Matthews is worth. I know he had more points but he played with a superstar whilst Matthews had to carry his linemates. Also Matthews is a Franchise Center they are worth more than wingers. Could live with 10 mill plus but never 11 mill... 4 Firsts won't be bad either. Or getting a second very good D Men. I think I would actually do Marner and a First for Seth Jones.

I hate this offseason at the moment. You finally have a filthy team and then all those young guys pretenting to be superstars already start *****ing around for 1 mill. Heck 10 mill is more then enough. Imagine getting that **** for 1 year. One year! No it's not enough I want 11. **** off men they don't see how lucky they are do they?

It would be pretty close to one-for-one if it was a Marner-Jones deal. The Leafs would not be adding a 1st that's for sure.

The Leafs would probably add Ceci to the deal, and take back some salary with assets (i.e. a Dubinsky) from Columbus so they can afford them. Combined CBJ is likely looking at 15 mill for the two, which is the rest of their cap space, but subtracting Jones and Dubinsky would give them more than enough to get Werenski locked up. The only thing is that Columbus would have a lot of money tied up in wingers so I don't know why they'd be interested in Marner in the first place.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Leafs have all the power here, if Mitch doesn't sign by opening night, he could be very well sitting on the sidelines for 2 years. And if he ever comes back he still owes 4 rfa years.

Not to mention he isnt doing his team any favors by dragging this out.

Team? He cares not for team!

 

[SeaOfBlue]

In this situation I think the Leafs would love to be able to push this to arbitration to get one year resolved at least.

Marner probably wouldn't want it though. He's almost certainly going to get less than he would want in arbitration. He would make more money by agreeing to a reasonable bridge at that point.

 

[Randy Randerson]

In this situation I think the Leafs would love to be able to push this to arbitration to get one year resolved at least.

I don't agree in this situation, I would in the case of a non-premier player who was overvaluing himself. If I'm Leafs management, I don't want any avenue available that gives the player deals that eat RFA years that I can use for leverage and walks them close or to UFA status

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Thanks, I think that pretty much sums up what is out there. So basically what has been said/confirmed from Marner's camp:

a) Marner will not take a discount. That's pretty understandable
b) Proud dad thinks son is a winner and is captain material

In media speculation, we have:

a) Bob MacKenzie believes Marner camp feels Marner is worth as much as Matthews

It didn’t say Bob MacKenzie “believes”. It said Bob MacKenzie “reported” that Marner wants Matthews money.

 

[81Leafs50]

Why because an AHL call up would have done better? This makes no sense.

its a waste of a year of the contract. Leafs basically signed Willy for 5 years.

 

[81Leafs50]

There have been some. In 1993-94 Steve Larmer skipped camp and sat out a bit more than a month demanding a trade from the Hawks. He went on to put up .88 PPg with the rangers and win the cup compared to .83PPG the year before. Had he not sat out he probably would have beaten jarvis' iron man streak that year.

In 1998 Pavel bure sat out most of the year demanding a trade out of Vancouver. Finally in the winter he was traded to the Panthers only playing 13 games that year after sitting out. He scored 16 goals in those 13 games- didn't seem too rusty. Traded in January but limited to 13 games because of an injury I think.

Edit Paul Coffey held out with edm for a trade. Traded at end of November. put up 1.46 PPG with pitt compared to 1.13 PPG year before.

those are 3 outliers in most probability. I cant find any that have posted these numbers in the cap-era

 

[Confucius]

Just like if they let Nylander sit out the year - noone wins

Sure there is a winner, the player may play for a reasonable amount, and that amount would be determined by the team.

 

[CDN24]

Marner probably wouldn't want it though. He's almost certainly going to get less than he would want in arbitration. He would make more money by agreeing to a reasonable bridge at that point.

Exactly which is why I don't think the players have to give up anything to get arbitration right of ELC. If you give both sides the right to elect arbitration of ELC, both are giving up something and both are gaining something.

In fact the treat of a 1 or 2 year arbitration deal and associated career ending injury risk probably puts more pressure on the player to accept a bit less on a LT deal.

Arbitration is always a risk for both sides but it would allow these standoffs to be resolved by August and like most current cases they probably don't get to arbitration that often as the risk of the arbitrated settlement pushes both sides to come to a negociated settlement before. The current system where a players only options are holdout or offersheet doesn't help either side. teams with significant high end RFAs have no certainity to fill out their rosters until these big dollar cases are resolved. Its not just the Leafs, its jets, Bolts Avs (albeit with plenty of cap space).

Arbitration rights of ELC probably benefits the owners more, I'm fine with that.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Just like if they let Nylander sit out the year - noone wins

Disagree.

Leafs lost in the first round anyways.

If the leafs made Nylander sit out, it would have helped in the Matthews and Marner negotiations. Dubas wouldn’t have the reputation as a lightweight that caves.

 

[Pookie]

Just like that?What would the players giveup for that?

The low to mid tier player might like Arbitration. No more two ways. Close the gap between rich and poor a little.

They can’t hold out as easily and replace the income. Gives them a little more bargaining power.

 

[CDN24]

those are 3 outliers in most probability. I cant find any that have posted these numbers in the cap-era

The point is arbitrary statements like its never happened that a player has played well after sitting out are flat out wrong. I was able to provide 3 examples easily by thinking of high profile guys who sat out. I am sure there are more examples. What about injuries? Shea Weber missed pretty much a full calendar year to injury and campe back at the same time as Nylander last year with no production drop off.

Saying no one comes back as good after sitting out for more than a month and missing camp is excusing Nylander for last years disaster of a season. Willie might be the outlier here. Maybe he will be better this year, can't be much work. Thedifference between Coffey/Larmer/ Bure/and weber to Nylander is what? Maybe they were willing to put in the work while sitting out or injured. Seems like Willie coasted or he can't produce at all with out Matthews at centre, neither alternative seems to be worth 6.96AAV.

I hope Marner does not sit out but if he does I'm willing to bet he comes back just as productive as last year.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

It would be pretty close to one-for-one if it was a Marner-Jones deal. The Leafs would not be adding a 1st that's for sure.

The Leafs would probably add Ceci to the deal, and take back some salary with assets (i.e. a Dubinsky) from Columbus so they can afford them. Combined CBJ is likely looking at 15 mill for the two, which is the rest of their cap space, but subtracting Jones and Dubinsky would give them more than enough to get Werenski locked up. The only thing is that Columbus would have a lot of money tied up in wingers so I don't know why they'd be interested in Marner in the first place.

You are kidding yourself. A top 3 dman who could be #1 right now has never and will never ever be traded straight up for a top 10 winger. Leafs would have to add at minimum a 1st rounder prospect like Lily and a 1st rounder. And even then I think Columbus would pass.

 

[Trapper]

Just like that?What would the players giveup for that?

Perhaps next CBA they should look to other leagues and adopt some new ways of doing things.
Soft cap perhaps. Luxury tax.
ELC to RFA seems to be changing. Adopt an NFL style.

NFL:
Under the new CBA, changes were made to the structure of NFL rookie contracts. These changes largely favor the NFL clubs, as one of the big factors during negotiation of the new CBA, was suppressing rookie salaries. Under the new CBA, rookies that are drafted receive four-year contracts. If a rookie is drafted in the first round, clubs can exercise a fifth-year option for the player’s rights. According to Slough, “In all likelihood, unless [the player] flames out, it will be a five-year deal for first rounders.” If a rookie is undrafted, he will receive a three-year contract.
Then UFA in 6 years.

Forget the over 35 contract penalty. Give long term vets a break. Anyone over 35 can be bought out at any time with no penalty. Gives guys a chance to jump on, make some money and try to win a Cup.
Give and take.

 

[RoyalCitySlicker]

You are kidding yourself. A top 3 dman who could be #1 right now has never and will never ever be traded straight up for a top 10 winger. Leafs would have to add at minimum a 1st rounder prospect like Lily and a 1st rounder. And even then I think Columbus would pass.

Columbus would also have to pay Marner what he wants.....I'm not sure they would.

 

[Mess]

You are kidding yourself. A top 3 dman who could be #1 right now has never and will never ever be traded straight up for a top 10 winger. Leafs would have to add at minimum a 1st rounder prospect like Lily and a 1st rounder. And even then I think Columbus would pass.

Leaf might have better luck trying Werenski for Marner.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Disagree.

Leafs lost in the first round anyways.

If the leafs made Nylander sit out, it would have helped in the Matthews and Marner negotiations. Dubas wouldn’t have the reputation as a lightweight that caves.

Criticism based on hindsight is meaningless. If only we could find a GM somewhere who can see the future ...

 

[Legion34]

You are kidding yourself. A top 3 dman who could be #1 right now has never and will never ever be traded straight up for a top 10 winger. Leafs would have to add at minimum a 1st rounder prospect like Lily and a 1st rounder. And even then I think Columbus would pass.

You do realize this exact player was traded for a barely top 20 if that C right?