Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Winter is coming

[WTFMAN99]

Yes.

ES P/GP over their ELCs:

Marner - 0.63
Point - 0.59
Rantanen - 0.55

Marner has also produced at the best rate on the PP of the 3, and has had the worst linemates of the 3. Don't let a team stat like PP opportunities skew your perception of the players.

Last 2 seasons Point has more production then Marner

Rantanen out produced Marner 2 seasons ago, and last season if not hurt, would have as well, better pt/game.

Trending up at a higher trajectory than Marner.

 

[DarkKnight]

Mirtle "both sides have been quite lately".

Let the baseless speculation continue....

 

[KingJoffrey]

Dubas didn’t cave to Nylander. Willy called him at the last minute to accept the leafs final offer.

He did cave to Matthews IMO with the 5 year term on his contract which is creating problems with Marner.

Final offer which was trash

 

[Stephen]

The more I think of this, the more I see the genius of Marner's position to force a crazy lucrative deal.

On the surface it seems like Marner has minimal leverage. But maybe he has the most important leverage of all--the Leafs can't replace him if they don't sign him. They simply cannot replace him as a player and as an asset.

What if Marner insists on Matthews' contact? Or 3 years x $11 million? Too rich? Ok, what do you do?

There is no offer sheet coming, so no 4 unprotected first rounders. With those crazy demands you probably can't trade him for fair value. What if the best trade you can pull off is a first and a handful of decent prospects?

So you let him sit and rot. But then you're without one of your best players in a Cup window year. And his absence is a dark cloud hanging over the team all year. If you bring him back late, you don't get full value out of Year 1 (if Nylander is any indication). And if he sits out the year, you probably can't ever bring him back. And his value will just continue to decline. Whenever you finally move him, you're getting 75 cents on the dollar.

So Marner is betting that Dubas won't have the stones to be "the guy who lost Mitch Marner." And eventually Dubas will figure out a way to pay Marner's ransom demands. And we are not going to like the contract when it finally gets done.

It's not exactly genius. It's just using a petulant stance to get what you want or else you're going to take your ball and go home.

In the long run, it's going to significantly shorten the Leafs window and force them to blast apart the core.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Last 2 seasons Point has more production then Marner
Rantanen out produced Marner 2 seasons ago, and last season if not hurt, would have as well, better pt/game.
Trending up at a higher trajectory than Marner.

ES P/GP:

Marner - 0.63
Point - 0.59
Rantanen - 0.55

ES P/GP, 1st ELC year excluded:

Marner - 0.68
Point - 0.66
Rantanen - 0.66

ES P/GP, Contract year:

Marner - 0.85
Rantanen - 0.73
Point - 0.72

ES P/GP (1st ELC year weighted at 14.29%, 2nd ELC year weighted at 28.58%, 3rd ELC year weighted at 57.16% - each year worth double the last)

Marner - 0.71
Point - 0.64
Rantanen - 0.64

 

[RoadWarrior]

It's not exactly genius. It's just using a petulant stance to get what you want or else you're going to take your ball and go home.

In the long run, it's going to significantly shorten the Leafs window and force them to blast apart the core.

Or they could trade him for useful pieces and eliminate the problem altogether. Better that than sign an absurd contract.

 

[ACC1224]

You keep saying it was reported Marner would have signed for 8 times 9. Where did you hear this? I keep hearing their camp had zero interest in negotiating until this summer.

8.5 x 8 was the number.
They were speaking last summer, they didn't want to negotiate in season.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Mirtle "both sides have been quite lately".

Let the baseless speculation continue....

But because Mirtle says it it’s not baseless?

 

[Dekes For Days]

8.5 x 8 was the number.

No, 8 x 9m was the speculated number, like 8+ months after the fact (which makes no sense), with absolutely no details (including when this would have happened), which completely contradicts everything we know about Marner's wants, which would have been an insane deal for somebody with his production and play at that time, and raised the price of every single other RFA we have.

 

[ACC1224]

No, 8 x 9m was the speculated number, like 8+ months after the fact (which makes no sense), with absolutely no details (including when this would have happened), which completely contradicts everything we know about Marner's wants, which would have been an insane deal for somebody with his production and play at that time, and raised the price of every single other RFA we have.

This was prior to camp opening up last year.

 

[SprDaVE]

I don't understand at all what Marner and his camp are even thinking. This is not even slightly rational.

This isn't a disagreement about 1M per year, which is pretty standard in negotiations.. This is 3-4M or so. Per year.

 

[egd27]

A close friend of mine played with Mitch back in junior, said his dad is a nut case. Im sure thats already been mentioned.

If Marner is being greedy, Dubas will have to make a tough call and possibly trade him.

Any stud defencemen available?

Or they could trade him for useful pieces and eliminate the problem altogether. Better that than sign an absurd contract.

IMO, Marner is essentially untradeable.

To trade him, you would need to find a team that not only wants to meet his (alleged) outrageous contract demands, but also one that Marner will agree to sign with, and is willing to give up something close to fair compensation to Leafs.

I know there are some stupid GM's out there, but to severely overpay a player, while giving up valuable assets for that privilege, may even be too dumb for even the the most inept GM.

 

[Burnie97]

Again... regardless of talent... do we need a guy with parents like that... he needs to put pen to paper. Yeah I'm aware that's why you have an agent... but if they're pulling the strings and not Marner... do the Leafs want to deal with this forever... what's that like in a dressing room. Its partly on Marner too... and its getting more clear that he's more interested in money then anything else.

Dubas needs to draw a line in the sand and say here's your options... call me or enjoy the alps.... but we won't be budging.

Talent is an amazing thing... so is the right attitude. Chemistry off the ice is important too.

And people will say... hey what about Nylander ... but approx 7 mil at 6 years ... is a lot more reasonable... especially if he gets around 70 points.

Defend Marner all you want with fancy stats etc... if these numbers are in fact in that ballpark... its beyond ridiculous. 1 year does not make you a top winger.

 

[PromisedLand]

I don't understand at all what Marner and his camp are even thinking. This is not even slightly rational.

This isn't a disagreement about 1M per year, which is pretty standard in negotiations.. This is 3-4M or so. Per year.

Love Marner. He is my favourite Leaf; but this ask is ridiculous. I cheer for the team first. Marner can’t sit for the season if he is not going to be reasonable.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I don't understand at all what Marner and his camp are even thinking. This is not even slightly rational.

This isn't a disagreement about 1M per year, which is pretty standard in negotiations.. This is 3-4M or so. Per year.

Marner is 100% claiming "I am better than McDavid".

 

[ULF_55]

If the Friedman reports are true, that short-term contract is the most insane demand I've heard of since I first started to seriously follow the contract market some 5-6 years ago.

And if any of the recent reports are true, I sincerely doubt that Marner actually was going to take that deal last season that has been rumored. That was at least rather reasonable, in a 'overpay me, but have faith that I can live up to it' way. I don't see a player go from that to something like this over one season.

Based on the speculation, marner would have NEVER signed before knowing what Matthews got.

This really shouldn't be true: I can't make less than him. He can't be made captain because I deserve it.

We just have to wait for the reasonable and fair contract to be signed and then we move along.

 

[WTFMAN99]

ES P/GP:

Marner - 0.63
Point - 0.59
Rantanen - 0.55

ES P/GP, 1st ELC year excluded:

Marner - 0.68
Point - 0.66
Rantanen - 0.66

ES P/GP, Contract year:

Marner - 0.85
Rantanen - 0.73
Point - 0.72

ES P/GP (1st ELC year weighted at 14.29%, 2nd ELC year weighted at 28.58%, 3rd ELC year weighted at 57.16% - each year worth double the last)

Marner - 0.71
Point - 0.64
Rantanen - 0.64

There a reason you're punishing other players for producing? Let's look at overall PT/Game. No one cares how people got their points unless you're going for a specific narrative.

17/18 PT Game

Point - .8 Pt game
Rantanen - 1.03 pt game
Marner - 0.84 pt game

18/19 PT Game

Point 1.16 pt/game
Rantanen 1.17 pt/game
Marner 1.14 pt/game

Point gets a premium for playing centre although tax situation and internal cap structure of Tampa Bay may change things but Marner is clearly #3 of these 3 players.

 

[Dekes For Days]

This was prior to camp opening up last year.

Technically yes, if it was true, but we don't know how long before.

It's a little weird that your last few posts are ridiculing the credibility of these types of rumours, but you take this one comment said in a very non-committal way long after it supposedly happened to be 100% confirmed fact.

Why was that not "reported" 4-6 months prior?

 

[SprDaVE]

Mirtle reported on TSN earlier that Marner rejected a 3 year 8.83 AAV contract (oddly specific number).

Friedman reported that Marner rejected a 7 year 11M AAV contract as well. (Not mentioned when it was rejected)

I'm all for players getting as much money as possible... but... this isn't really reasonable based on market value.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Based on the speculation, marner would have NEVER signed before knowing what Matthews got.

This really shouldn't be true: I can't make less than him. He can't be made captain because I deserve it.

We just have to wait for the reasonable and fair contract to be signed and then we move along.

Also based on the speculation, it seems like Marner was never going to consider an 8 year deal, which makes me wonder why there are a bunch of people who thought that Marner was going to rush to signing an 8x8 deal last year when he knew that even with a similar season as to the two he put up without Tavares, he'd likely get a similar AAV for only 5 or 6 years.

 

[PromisedLand]

Mirtle reported on TSN earlier that Marner rejected a 3 year 8.83 AAV contract (oddly specific number).

Friedman reported that Marner rejected a 7 year 11M AAV contract as well. (Not mentioned when it was rejected)

Hypothetically speaking if Mitch believes he is going to be a consistent 90+ point player then why not accept this AAV and then go to arbitration to get that big dollar after the bridge is done? Leafs either pay him that big dollar after the bridge or he becomes UFA.

It’s simple!

 

[Burnie97]

Mirtle reported on TSN earlier that Marner rejected a 3 year 8.83 AAV contract (oddly specific number).

Friedman reported that Marner rejected a 7 year 11M AAV contract as well. (Not mentioned when it was rejected)

If that's not good enough... what a joke.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Mirtle reported on TSN earlier that Marner rejected a 3 year 8.83 AAV contract (oddly specific number).

Friedman reported that Marner rejected a 7 year 11M AAV contract as well. (Not mentioned when it was rejected)

I'm all for players getting as much money as possible... but... this isn't really reasonable based on market value.

And I would think the Leafs have pulled that offer after seeing what Aho and Werenski got. Marner should be rushing to sign for that, but he probably wants 2 mill more for the same term.

 

[SprDaVE]

Hypothetically speaking if Mitch believes he is going to be a consistent 90+ point player then why not accept this AAV and then go to arbitration to get that big dollar after the bridge is done?

Because he wants over 10M on a 3 year bridge, so that he can get a 15M+ QO when the bridge is done.

 

[Dekes For Days]

This isn't a disagreement about 1M per year, which is pretty standard in negotiations.. This is 3-4M or so. Per year.

That is speculation from months ago, and is even said to be irrelevant in that quote. It's also not a difference of 3-4m. This is the same 3 x 10m offer that was speculated before (7.5, 7.5, 15), when it was speculated that the Leafs were at 8.7m x 3 (a 1.3m difference).