Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Winter is coming

[Dekes For Days]

just the variance in PP TOI among top players can result in as much as a 10 points difference.

Even more than that...

From an earlier post of mine:

There still seems to be a lot of confusion about why it's important to separate ES and PP production when determining quality of player.

To help illustrate how much PP TOI affects raw production:

Let's say we had two players that played the exact same amount of time at ES (let's say 15:22 (awkward TOI I know but trying to not have half a point in the result)) and have the exact same rate of production at ES (let's say 3.0 P/60). They also produce at the exact same rate on the PP (let's say 8.0 P/60). Both of these values represent elite players. They both play all 82 games in the season.

If Player A gets around 2:30 in PP TOI/GP and Player B gets around 4:00 PP TOI/GP, because the team they were on placed 1st and 31st respectively in PP opportunities (like we saw with Marner and Rantanen this year), Player A will get 90 points and player B will get 107 points.

This is a 17 point swing based on a difference of 1 and a half minutes in the least tiring and least intensive time you can play, because of a team stat, for players that are 100% identical in every other way.

 

[ULF_55]

So looks like Marners camp did reject 11M per year on a long-term contract.

You know this is straight from Ferris/Paul because who else would still talk about ELC bonuses 3 years later?

I'm speechless.

A leopard doesn't change its spots.

Looking like Leafs should demand a long term deal, or deal him.

That might be why the Leafs are pushing for the 7 or 8 year deal. They know the future is going to repeat itself and if they don't get a long term deal done they'll face this same issue in the near future.

Trade him to Lou.

 

[taurine330]

Last year me and my brother got the Arenas jerseys for cheap from Real Sports. There were two options left. Marner and Matthews. I chose Marner. I chose wrong.

 

[Bomber0104]

hilarious you can read that and blame dubas. They turned down $11M AAV, $11M!!!

The only person laughing at this is probably Marner's agent, who cannot believe Dubas is actually going along with it and got him hook line and sinker.

 

[Dekes For Days]

For the salary I think the rule is

1. Be within 33% on a year over year basis (up or down)
and
2. And any year in the duration of the contract cannot be more than 50% of the lowest salary

That is for front-loaded deals only. I made the same mistake.

The discussion is back like 10 pages in this thread.

 

[Leafidelity]

Trade him. 11/7 was an overpay as it stands.

Can’t believe I’ve come to this point about one of my favs last year, but here we are. This guy doesn’t want to win as much as he wants money.

 

[kb]

IMO, Marner is essentially untradeable.

To trade him, you would need to find a team that not only wants to meet his (alleged) outrageous contract demands, but also one that Marner will agree to sign with, and is willing to give up something close to fair compensation to Leafs.

I know there are some stupid GM's out there, but to severely overpay a player, while giving up valuable assets for that privilege, may even be too dumb for even the the most inept GM.

I think you are looking at this from the wrong angle. If he forces his way out of Toronto because of outrageous demands, there will be many suitors lining up because they will all know that if he tries it again, he will blackball himself right out of the league. He's not getting another chance if he does this to a second team.

Plus he will have basically screwed his brand forever. No one will want him to endorse anything, because no company will ever want to be associated with his name and what he stands for.

If I'm GM, I stop playing nice and ram these facts down his throat as I reduce my offers daily.

But that's just me.

 

[Dayjobdave]

I don’t see how the team meets any of these suggested contract prices without destroying their structure.

Either Marner or Matthews would have to go if they are true.

 

[ULF_55]

The bolded is a big and common problem in forward evaluation. Nobody really cares whether someone got their total by their own offensive play, by superior linemates, or by excessive riches of opportunity. The latter is such a huge factor, yet people are usually called homers for bringing it up. The truth is that even if you accept the theory that per minute-stats get worse with additional minutes, just the variance in PP TOI among top players can result in as much as a 10 points difference.

Put today's Marner on the 30th place Leafs, and I'm not sure he breaks 70 points. He's just as good of a player, but context matters.

Compared to the other two, Marner gets almost as strong results while working with much less. Point has equal linemates and a greater opportunity. Rantanen has both.

Since most of the focus is on his most recent 94 points:

Playoffs matter.

Rantanen 14 points 12 games
marner 4 points 7 games
Point 1 point 4 games

We know why marner didn't pile up points in the post season, Tavares 5 points 7 games (2 goals).

 

[Walshy7]

The only person laughing at this is probably Marner's agent, who cannot believe Dubas is actually going along with it and got hooked line and sinker.

going along with what? not overpaying them?

if he was "going along with it" Marner would be signed

 

[Walshy7]

IMO, Marner is essentially untradeable.

To trade him, you would need to find a team that not only wants to meet his (alleged) outrageous contract demands, but also one that Marner will agree to sign with, and is willing to give up something close to fair compensation to Leafs.

I know there are some stupid GM's out there, but to severely overpay a player, while giving up valuable assets for that privilege, may even be too dumb for even the the most inept GM.

this is my concern too, not only do you have to significantly overpay him on a contract but give up fair value too?

We would have to hope a team that doesn't have a lot of offensive talent and a desperate get involved.

 

[ACC1224]

Technically yes, if it was true, but we don't know how long before.

It's a little weird that your last few posts are ridiculing the credibility of these types of rumours, but you take this one comment said in a very non-committal way long after it supposedly happened to be 100% confirmed fact.

Why was that not "reported" 4-6 months prior?

I trust who gave me the information.

The latest 'thoughts' I don't buy because they make very little sense.

Anyway, it'll get done and all this will be long forgotten (by most).

 

[Burnie97]

Regardless of production so far... I find it much easier to understand Nylanders ask than this bullshit.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Playoffs matter.

There's not much evidence they do. It's a tiny sample, and everybody has wildly different opportunities.

We know why marner didn't pile up points in the post season

Probably because he was playing against one of the best lines in hockey, with a guy with a torn ACL requiring surgery and 6 months recovery on his other wing.

 

[BlueForever75]

To be honest I getting pretty sick of hearing what Marner camp is turning down supposedly.

If Dubas has any guts and this is actually true. Which I am skeptical on. Then he has every right to hold firm. cause the numbers in my eyes being floated as already turned down is an extreme overpayment if Marner would accept.

I would let him sit, let other RFA's sign and dictate market. Once Point and Rantanen sign the Leafs can use those as comparables. He definitely is not an 11 million a year player. And a deal for 3 years eclipsing 8 million a season is also an overpayment.

Its in the Leafs best interest to let others set the market. Once set, leverage is back in the Leafs court. But if these numbers are true no Leaf fan should be ok with it. If you think Nylander was overpaid, then sorry Marner isn't that much better then Nylander.

 

[Walshy7]

I don’t see how the team meets any of these suggested contract prices without destroying their structure.

Either Marner or Matthews would have to go if they are true.

what an easy decision. Been looking for a franchise center since Sundin now we have one, we have had elite wingers before and will again

 

[moon111]

Remember the good old days when discussions of Marner going to $9 million were considered ludicrous?

 

[ACC1224]

Paul with an update

Why would this be assumed to be from Ferris?
Makes more sense that Dubas would leak that, IMO.

 

[kb]

I don’t see how the team meets any of these suggested contract prices without destroying their structure.

Either Marner or Matthews would have to go if they are true.

Move the small one trick pony winger all day every day.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I trust who gave me the information.

The latest 'thoughts' I don't buy because they make very little sense.

Frankly, neither make sense. Every Toronto fan should know to take anything you hear from Toronto sports media with a grain of salt.

Anyway, it'll get done and all this will be long forgotten (by most).

I agree it will get done, but you give this fanbase too much credit.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

I feel a sense of foreboding, we can already see us needing to let players walk or trade them because we can't afford to keep them...Before even winning one playoff round.

 

[Walshy7]

Last year me and my brother got the Arenas jerseys for cheap from Real Sports. There were two options left. Marner and Matthews. I chose Marner. I chose wrong.

Rookie mistake, never get a current player jersey. Either a leaf legend (Gilmour, Sundin etc) or blank. Even through no fault of the players own they could be traded tomorrow if the right deal came up.

Could you pay to have the name and number changed or removed? I don't know if they do that. Anyway Marner will be leaf it will still be usable just a bit of a bad taste in the mouth

Blank has the bonus of being cheaper too I suppose

 

[ULF_55]

There's not much evidence they do. It's a tiny sample, and everybody has wildly different opportunities.

Probably because he was playing against one of the best lines in hockey, with a guy with a torn ACL requiring surgery and 6 months recovery on his other wing.

Playoffs are the only things that matter ... you aren't a winner unless you do something in the playoffs.

And yes, he faced a challenge in the playoffs and came up short. He didn't produce because Tavares scored at 50% of his regular season pace. Tavares made the difference in the regular season, but couldn't do it in the post season.

 

[inthe6ix]

KD needs to hold firm on this - it's not like people will revolt and boycott coming out to Scotia if Mitchy doesn't sign in time for the opener; at this point he's gotta sit back (like he's doing) and let the other GM's set the market first with their own RFA numbers.

You have all the leverage Kyle, don't screw this up.

 

[kb]

Rookie mistake, never get a current player jersey. Either a leaf legend (Gilmour, Sundin etc) or blank. Even through no fault of the players own they could be traded tomorrow if the right deal came up.

Could you pay to have the name and number changed or removed? I don't know if they do that. Anyway Marner will be leaf it will still be usable just a bit of a bad taste in the mouth

Blank has the bonus of being cheaper too I suppose

Just get a jersey that says EVERYONE for the player name, and $$$ where the numbers go.

It's universal.