Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion Part XIX - Bert's Back in the Thread Title Game

[ACC1224]

They can't have another Nylander situation this year.

If it gets past say halloween, let him sit out the year. This team CANNOT afford another distraction.

The only way to avoid a distraction is to sign him.

 

[Marshy]

***** Marner is done in this city.

Are all other RFAs done in their cities too? Laine? Rantanen? Point? Tkachuk?

Maybe we can swap disgruntled RFAs.

 

[stickty111]

 

[18leafsfan18]

2017-2018 - 37 G 47A - 84 Points
2018-2019 - 47G 41A - 88 Points

3% Increase over his career best points total.

He might be alright without his "Source of hockey power"

 

[stickty111]

2017-2018 - 37 G 47A - 84 Points
2018-2019 - 47G 41A - 88 Points

3% Increase over his career best points total.

He might be alright without his "Source of hockey power"

The tweet was sarcasm. It's poking fun at the people who thing Tavares is useless without Mitch.

 

[18leafsfan18]

The tweet was sarcasm.

Okay, sounds good.

Can't tell on here most of the time.

Carry on.

 

[stickty111]

Okay, sounds good.

Can't tell on here most of the time.

Carry on.

No worries. It happens to me as sometimes.

 

[ACC1224]

2017-2018 - 37 G 47A - 84 Points
2018-2019 - 47G 41A - 88 Points

3% Increase over his career best points total.

He might be alright without his "Source of hockey power"

You be mistaken if you don't think the entire organization doesn't want Marner in the lineup from opening day.

This entire Marner/Tavares crap is such an idiotic spinoff of this entire situation.

 

[18leafsfan18]

That is correct as LTIR does not accrue, so $10.55 mil [Horton + Clarkson] total is same on day #1 of the season and Dec 1st, but the cap hit for a player in year #1 goes up significantly if they sign late.

If Marner was signed in the offseason they could use the full $10.5 mil LTIR, however by Dec 1st a $10 mil AAV would have a $14-15 AVV cap hit.. Willy's $7.5 mil AAV contract became $10.27 mil in year #1 and $6.96 in all the other years due to how the CBA handles these late signings.

So Leafs could need to find +$5 mil more cap space above LTIR if Marner held out until Nov 3oth.

PS. The Ottawa Senators acquired forward Ryan Callahan and a fifth-round pick in 2020 from the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday for goaltender Mike Condon and a 2020 sixth-round pick. Callahan announced earlier this off-season he will not play again after being diagnosed with a degenerative back disease. He will join Marian Gaborik and Clarke McArthur on long-term injured reserve with the Senators, raising their LTIR total to $15.3 million.

Maybe Dubas should have helped out TB and acquired Callanhan's LTIR dead contract [$5.8 mil AAV LTIR] also to up their own LTIR by +5.8 mil to allow Marner to sign by Dec 1st.

Cap hit accrues over the season. I'm no expert but I just want to make sure I understand this stuff correctly.

The way I understand it Nylander's cap hit wasn't actually 10.27 in year 1. In year 1 he was owed his full 6.9, but since that didn't start until December, they had to pay him his 6.9 in less time. So on the cap of the team he only ever hit the cap for 6.9.

The 10.27 you see on capfriendly is taking that daily cap hit multiplied by the number of days in the season.

That season there was no cap issues at all, so they didn't have to worry about LTIR etc.

LTIR overage can't be used unless you hit the cap ceiling, so if the Leafs kept approx 10 mil open for Marner the LTIR guys they don't do anything (not at cap so no relief). This is why they went and got another LTIR contract that will push them to the cap, so they can use the LTIR for at least 1 player.

With all that said, If Marner signs for 10 on December 1st, the team will be over the limit by the end of the year because they only got to use 1 of the LTIR guys' relief from day 1 of season to Dec 1st.

They would basically have to shread a bunch of salary after Dec 1st if Marner signed then (or pick up more LTIR players).

 

[Nineteen67]

Hope I'm wrong but IMO. Not going to happen any time soon. I'll be surprised if this is done by training camp.

Don’t worry, it’s already done.

 

[18leafsfan18]

You be mistaken if you don't think the entire organization doesn't want Marner in the lineup from opening day.

This entire Marner/Tavares crap is such an idiotic spinoff of this entire situation.

I would assume absolutely everyone wants Marner playing from opening day.

I agree that the Marner/Tavares stuff is idiotic, which is why I said Tavares would do fine without him. He has proven it for 9 seasons before he played in Toronto.

 

[ACC1224]

I would assume absolutely everyone wants Marner playing from opening day.

I agree that the Marner/Tavares stuff is idiotic, which is why I said Tavares would do fine without him. He has proven it for 9 seasons before he played in Toronto.

Of course, he's a great player.
Marner would also be fine without Tavares.

Fine isn't going to take this team anywhere though.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Of course, he's a great player.
Marner would also be fine without Tavares.

Fine isn't going to take this team anywhere though.

I agree again.

But that's not what we were discussing, and the tweet that was posted was sarcasm anyway, so none of this really matters.

 

[ACC1224]

I agree again.

But that's not what we were discussing, and the tweet that was posted was sarcasm anyway, so none of this really matters.

Tweets are idiotic as well but there are a few posters who can't help themselves.

It doesn't take much knowledge to know that neither player was carried, they were great together.

 

[PromisedLand]

Hometown discount coming up

Nice one

Not sure what is it that the fans want.

Nylander fiasco went till December

Matthews did not give any discount at all

Why is Marner expected to be different than the Nylander and Matthews negotiations?

 

[18leafsfan18]

Tweets are idiotic as well but there are a few posters who can't help themselves.

It doesn't take much knowledge to know that neither player was carried, they were great together.

Agree, neither was carried and they were fantastic together.

 

[PromisedLand]

@Notsince67
"Size is a bit over rated in projecting players. It helps but a lot of projections were made on size alone and they were wrong."

I didn't say a thing about making projections on size alone. You decided to compare Marner to Jagr. I said that it was a bad comparison. I also said that your claim that Jagr came into the NHL as a tank was wrong. He was big, but didn't use his size. He relied on talent and finesse when he entered the NHL - which had been more than enough to bring him success before he made it to the NHL. It took him several years to both develop strength and learn how to use his size.

I watched almost every NHL game Mario played. I watched almost every game Jagr played for the Pens. I have watched almost every game Matthews has played in the NHL. Lots of people made the claim - for each of them - that because of their size when they entered the NHL that they were near full potential (although oddly the opposite claim was made for Laine). That claim was completely wrong for Mario and Jagr (and I suspect will be just as wrong for Matthews) who were actually further from their peak potential than most other stars who are able to step into a big role in their D+1.

"Gretzky was 145 lbs soaking wet when he played his first pro game, in a much more physical era. Crosby is a lot smaller than Matthews. Players who aren't big just play a different game."

This has nothing to do with what I said. I never said that smaller players couldn't play in the NHL. I said that a small player like Marner shouldn't be compared to a big player like Jagr when it comes to development. Just as you shouldn't compare Marner to a late developing player when it comes to development.

Martin St. Lous, Patty Kane, Crosby, are a few players that aren't as big and still had tremendous NHL success.

I don't think size is as important as much as hockey IQ, skill and most importantly "Heart" when it comes to success in NHL

 

[Kiwi]

Not sure what is it that the fans want.

Nylander fiasco went till December

Matthews did not give any discount at all

Why is Marner expected to be different than the Nylander and Matthews negotiations?

I couldn't care less what he does

If he stays that's great if he wants every dollar and forces his way out i honestly couldn't give a ****

That's up to him, just don't expect me to care

 

[Notsince67]

2017-2018 - 37 G 47A - 84 Points
2018-2019 - 47G 41A - 88 Points

3% Increase over his career best points total.

He might be alright without his "Source of hockey power"

So Marner gets the blame for his fall in powerplay situations? They way I see it, Marner suffered in a worse way on the powerplay year over year.
As for the differences you cited, perhaps you want to look at 5x5...which is the pairing you were attempting to mislead at.
With Marner, Tavares scored 50% more goals than his career high. Pointwise he increased 25% from his career high.
Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out

 

[Sypher04]

Not sure what is it that the fans want.

Nylander fiasco went till December

Matthews did not give any discount at all

Why is Marner expected to be different than the Nylander and Matthews negotiations?

I think people just get worked up by reading all the so-called reports out there in the media.
I also believe most people, smart people, would want a deal to get done and at fair value. The problem comes from what represents fair value. If Marner's camp believes fair value is Auston Matthews' contract and no less then we have a problem, because nothing about them as comparables actually supports that, but the ask is the ask. If Marner's ask is more in line with fair market value based on true comparables then a deal should be able to get done in time.

 

[Mess]

Not sure what is it that the fans want.

Nylander fiasco went till December

Matthews did not give any discount at all

Why is Marner expected to be different than the Nylander and Matthews negotiations?

Marner would like something close the Matthews contract, and likely willing to wait it out like Nylander did in order to get it.

Marner is simply following the examples of the previous contracts to get paid..

Dubas is the one moving the goal posts as he wants Marner for longer term for less money and because of the Teams Cap needs him signed before the season starts.

That is what some would call the perfect storm on this contract stalemate situation. Neither side seeing eye to eye on $$ or term or timing.

 

[PromisedLand]

I think people just get worked up by reading all the so-called reports out there in the media.
I also believe most people, smart people, would want a deal to get done and at fair value. The problem comes from what represents fair value. If Marner's camp believes fair value is Auston Matthews' contract and no less then we have a problem, because nothing about them as comparables actually supports that, but the ask is the ask. If Marner's ask is more in line with fair market value based on true comparables then a deal should be able to get done in time.

I think the problem is that given Marner's production last season and the trend in his production regardless of the line he plays I don't think there is comparative contract out there for comparable

Rantanen is probably the closest and he does not PK while Marner does

 

[PromisedLand]

Marner would like something close the Matthews contract, and likely willing to wait it out like Nylander did in order to get it.

Marner is simply following the examples of the previous contracts to get paid..

Dubas is the one moving the goal posts as he wants Marner for longer term for less money and because of the Teams Cap needs him signed before the season starts.

Agreed here. Dubas messed up by handing out inflated contracts but by the same token I would also argue that Marner's camp should shoulder some of the blame as they wanted to go last. I mean if you want bigger share of the pie don't be last...

 

[18leafsfan18]

So Marner gets the blame for his fall in powerplay situations? They way I see it, Marner suffered in a worse way on the powerplay year over year.
As for the differences you cited, perhaps you want to look at 5x5...which is the pairing you were attempting to mislead at.
With Marner, Tavares scored 50% more goals than his career high. Pointwise he increased 25% from his career high.
Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out

Yes, if you nit pick certain stats, you can see that Tavares' stats increased.

Look I can do it too:

Marner's points went up 27% because of Tavares

Marner's assists went up 30% because of Tavares

At the end of the day, actual points in actual games Tavares has proved for 9 years before he played with the Leafs that he is capable of >80 point seasons.

You can spin this anyway you want, but the only real evidence and real numbers are past seasons, where Tavares has proven he is that type of player.

Again, I have to say this, I am not diminishing Marner in any way. He is a great player and may continue to be. The conversation was about Tavares.

 

[ZEBROA]

Vancouver laughs at this proposal tbh

If Marner is better than Matthews as some thinks they should think about it. But if i was Van i would say no.