This is my end of the year prospect breakdown. These are subject to change if the hockey season resumes. I will start at the bottom at #20 and make my way to the top. There will be a separate post for every prospect. I will try to make one daily. By my criteria, Liljegren and Sandin are still prospects so they will be included in this one. I will also be revealing who I feel took the biggest step, dropped the most, and most underrated prospect and so on.
#1. RHD.
Timothy Liljegren
Overview
Let the controversy begin! Liljegren is our top prospect, but anyone who had read my posts on the boards shouldn’t be surprised. I do feel Sandi might offer a little more upside, key word is might, but Liljegren also has top pair potential. Lilly has had a lot of hype around him even just 2 years before to getting drafted. He was labelled as a top 3 picks right up there with Nolan Patrick in his draft year, but Lilly had an uneven draft season where he missed a significant amount of time with Mono, and when he came back, he looked off and not the same player we had seen. Scouts still felt he should be close to a top 10 pick though, however he ended up slipping where the Leafs were glad to take him 17th overall in 2017. With him not being from the CHL, Lilly had the option of either returning to the SHL in his D+1, head over to Niagara to play in the OHL, all though this was extremely unlikely, or join the Marlies in the AHL. Liljegren chose the Marlies,, where he played well for a teen defencemen. He played a sheltered 3rd pairing role for them in the Playoffs en route to a championship. Leafs decided to test him the next season, and give him tough matchups. In the first couple months of the season, he struggled in the role, and it didn’t help he got a major injury when he started to get going. After he returned, Lilly took major steps in his defensive game, even though he sacrificed offense in return as was intended. In the playoffs, Lilly was fantastic in his top pair matchup role, and was arguably the Marlies non goalie MVP, and he was a big reason Marlies made an unexpected run to the Conference Finals. This season the goal was to get his offensive game going while being reliable defensively, and he did just that. He was the Marlies best defenseman, while producing offensively and terrific on the other side. Even after the Marlies team just collapsed under new coach Greg Moore, Lillegren was single handily keeping the Marlies defence afloat. Lilly played a few games for the Leafs as well, where he looked fine but nervous. He will challenge for a spot on the Leafs defence next season, but with the depth and Leafs looking to make an upgrade on the right side, he might go to the Marlies to start.
Stats
2018/2019
AHL
GP: 43
Goals: 3
Assists: 12
Points: 15
Rating: -8
2019/2020
AHL
GP: 40
Goals: 5
Assists: 25
Points: 30
Rating: -4
NHL
GP: 11
Goals: 0
Assists: 1
Points: 1
Rating: -5
CF%: 43.65
Statistical Analysis
In his 2nd season, Lilly’s production was pretty much equal to his rookie season. As mentioned, he sacrificed offense that season, and it shows here. All though his ES P1/GP actually improved from his rookie season, but his PP numbers in the same stat dropped, which is kind of expected since Lilly’s PP time was way down. In the playoffs, his scoring still wasn’t great, but he was amazing, and this was shown in his possession stats done by Jeffler. His CF% was in the mid to high 60’s if I remember correctly, and his OZS% was 2nd lowest among defensively. Lilly now needed to take a step offensively the next season which he did. He was 21st in points despite playing less games than most of the leaders, and overall 7th PPG among defensemen who played at least 40 games. His ES P1/GP bascally tripled from the previous season. This put him 9th among all defensemen in the league. His PP numbers in the same stat also jumped now getting more PP time, and also placed him 9th in the same category. Add to that he still played great defensively. It was a terrific season for Lilly, and he did it as 20 year old. He just turned 21 on April 30th.
Talent Analysis
Breakdown of grades:
1- Poor
2- Below average
3- Average
4- Good
5- Great
Player Grades: Present/Future
Skating: 3.5/4
Shot: 4/4
Puck Skills: 4/4
Defence: 4/4.5
Compete: 3.5/3.5
IQ/Smarts: 4/4
This is an aspect I feel people have overstated for Liljegren. I have heard some say he is an elite skater. He isn’t. He skates pretty well and moves well across the ice. There is a bit of a hitch still which has improved, but it won’t hurt him in the NHL. His North South skating isn’t good as his lateral skating, and that’s where the hitch comes in. His first few steps are good, but after he looks a bit awkward, and as a result, his top speed is average. He has solid edge work though which helps him turn away from pressure. I don’t think he is an amazing skater, but he is more than fine.
He has some nice tools offensively. First of all is his passing. His stretch passes are probably the best in the organization, and they are incredibly accurate. He can make these passes no matter how he is skating. Backward, laterally, or under pressure, he makes these passes so the offense keeps moving. It’s to where his teammate is going. This also applies when he is in the rush as well. His backhand passes are just as good too. As a result, his transition game is really good when you have his passing ability. Last season, Lilly was a little too conservative in the offensive zone, and this season he has improved, but he won’t be the “attack the defensive kind of guy” in the offensive zone. I like his game in the blueline. He can hand on to the puck for long stretches, and can beat players with fake while moving across the line. He then sends a nice pass to a teammate for a good opportunity. His shot does have some power which surprised me. He gets some nice velocity on his one timer, and it does become a difficult shot to face for the goalie.
This is the biggest gain he has made in his game. He has now becomes a very good defensive player, and borderline dominant in the AHL. I would have given him a 2 in his rookie season, but he really has taken enormous steps. He can read plays that are coming fast, and seems to think a step ahead on what he should do. He will go to one man, but after reading there may be danger in another area near to him, and he has to make a read to stop the attack, he tells his teammate to take him, and then Lilly goes to the other situation to stop that play. It’s tough to understand here, but basically Lilly is aware of things around him, and reads plays, and then communicates well to his teammate on what to do. He also intercepts pucks well. He can look at the puck carrier’s position, and than based on that, he cuts them off and pokes the puck. He is constantly reading defensively. He is also really when defending on the puck. He closes gaps well, and looks to contest every shot that is coming. Related to his lateral mobility, he can get to loose pucks and looks for options to get away, while using his body. Sometimes when on the rush, he can get flat footed and let his man get away, but these are rare.
You get the required effort from Liljegren in the game. He also has a high effort level when defending in his zone, whether he defending the puck carrier, or just batting in the corners.
Liljegren is a smart player on the ice. His reads are usually correct on defense, and is aware of the situation around him. Yes at times he makes a bad turnover, but those are uncommon, and it doesn’t mean you need to drop a player's grade for it.
My future projection: He should be a solid NHL defenseman, and could play in the league now under sheltered minutes. I see him in time being a top 4 defenseman who can play on both special teams, and give you reliable minutes.
NHL Player? Yes
Surprise surprise
@Kiwi @SeaOfBlue, Lilly at #1. Thoughts?
I will add
@TheGoldenJet to this. Do you agree with the talent analysis?