Marek Schwarz by the numbers

[Levitate]

i could be totally wrong on this, could just be a faulty memory...i thought i remember dan blackburn saying once (when he was in the midst of playing 18 straight games for the rangers) that he played like 40 straight games for kootenay once

maybe it wasn't 40, maybe it wasn't straight...dunno, that's what i remember though.

 

[degroat*]

Which is why he dropped in the draft and was clearly not considered a better prospect than Montoya or Dubnyk. Hell the rumour out there was that St Louis was going to take Dubnyk if he was available.

LOOKING like a great goalie is different than BEING a great goalie - and until he fixes his fundementals Schwarz will continue to look good while fishing pucks out of the back of the net.

"Was clearly not considered a better prospect than Montoya or Dubnyk"? By who? You? Becuase the ONLY thing the draft tells us is that the 16 teams that picked before the Blues liked the ONE player they drafted better than Schwarz. Why you and many others have such a problem understanding this is downright hillarious.

Anyone that is using draft position as their reason for saying that one goaltender is better than the other must believe that Blake Wheeler is the 4th best prospect from the 2004 draft.

Care to explain that one?

 

[degroat*]

You're the biggest homer here and get offended when someone, God forbid, even thinks that a Blues prospect isn't something awesome. You are a joke. Please hit the x in the upper right corner and forget the URL here.

Seriously.

Do you realize how ridiculous you are? You're accusing me of being the joke when you have provide absolutely NOTHING of any value to this thread. All you have done is attack me. And I'm the joke?

I love that I'm considered a homer around here.

How does thinking that Montoya is not 26 spots better than Schwarz make me a homer?

How does thinking that Balej is not 'easily' better than Sejna make me a homer?

Or were you not able to comprehend that those were in fact the arguments that I was making? Given your displayed level of maturity, that's probably the case.

 

[degroat*]

That comment shows me you know absolutely nothing about the game of hockey and math for that matter!!

First of all, I'll be glad to share my college transcript for you if you want to check my Calculus grades. :lol

As for my comments about shots and save percentage, Feel free to actually educate yourself before you insult someone when you are the one with no clue.

 

[degroat*]

All I know is the stats, those say that Marek has played 325 minutes (5.4 games) more than Nastiuk, 218 minutes (3.6 games) more than Price, and 246 minutes (4.1 games) more than Dubnyk. Plus it looks like he's already played more minutes this year with the Giants (1343) than he did last year in the Czech league (the whole year) http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/teams/player_bio.asp?player_id=4788&hubName=STL.

I dont really know (since I cant watch the Giants ) but if you add these minute factors (huge workload which it doesent look like he is used to) to the culture/ice size problems and it looks like his poor performance might be due to outside factors more than lack of ability.

I agree with other posters who have written that its too early to tell, give him time to adapt to NA and maybe rest a little and we might see a diffrent Schwarz.

( 7 shutouts already for Nastiuk? Oh, and I had started this post before others replied.)

None of that matters. Schwarz is already a bust because his numbers suck in his first 20 or so games after being drafted. We all just need to accept that.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Do you realize how ridiculous you are? You're accusing me of being the joke when you have provide absolutely NOTHING of any value to this thread. All you have done is attack me. And I'm the joke?

I love that I'm considered a homer around here.

How does thinking that Montoya is not 26 spots better than Schwarz make me a homer?

How does thinking that Balej is not 'easily' better than Sejna make me a homer?

Because you sit here and try to dis people and use stupid smilies and bold text to make up your points and claim all these anonymous sources that say x is better then y. Its getting old, fast.

PS I only said Balej was EASILY better then Sejna last year, and for you to deny that DOES make you a homer.

 

[dawgbone]

How come? Let's say a goalie let's in an average of 2 goals per game. If he faces 35 shots, that's a save percentage of .943. If he faces 20 shots a game, that's a save percentage of .900.

Quite an easy illustration of how more shots can give you a higher save percentage. So is my math wrong or do I know nothing about hockey?

Like I said, only if you stop them...

Facing more shots doesn't help your sv% unless you are actually stopping those shots.

If you give up 2 goals on 20 shots, or 3 on 30, it's still the same %... just assuming those extra shots are there to be stopped isn't very practical. Just because you face an extra 10 or 11 shots per game, it doesn't mean you will automatically stop them.

That being said, Dub only faces an average of 2 more shots per game (or something like that).

 

[Slats432]

First of all, I'll be glad to share my college transcript for you if you want to check my Calculus grades. :lol

As for my comments about shots and save percentage, Feel free to actually educate yourself before you insult someone when you are the one with no clue.

Glad to see you just proved that Roman Cechmanek is one of the best 5 goalies in the NHL. :lol

Montoya/Schwarz will be debated for a long time. Save up some of your energy for gloating if you are right later.

 

[degroat*]

Because you sit here and try to dis people and use stupid smilies and bold text to make up your points and claim all these anonymous sources that say x is better then y. Its getting old, fast.

PS I only said Balej was EASILY better then Sejna last year, and for you to deny that DOES make you a homer.

Let me see if I'm following you correctly... when someone tries to say that one of their prospects (Balej) is EASILY better than one of my prospects (SEJNA), I'm not allowed to debate that? I just have to say yes sir you are correct sir?

I'm just curious... what higher power decided that everything that you say is correct and that anyone that argues with you is wrong? Huh? Nobody. You are no more qualified than anyone else on these boards so quit trying to act like anyone that argues with your homer-ish point with their own homer-ish point is any more of a homer than you are.

PS - YOU may not have said that he was only easily better last year, but there were plenty of people who said that he was EASILY better overall.

PSS - Funny how my point about Balej not being easily better than Sejna is turning out to be quite true.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

PS - YOU may not have said that he was only easily better last year, but there were plenty of people who said that he was EASILY better overall.

PSS - Funny how my point about Balej not being easily better than Sejna is turning out to be quite true.

People who said he is easier better overall should just be ignored.

And funny on how he's playing on probably one of, if not the least offensive teams in the entire AHL.

 

[degroat*]

Glad to see you just proved that Roman Cechmanek is one of the best 5 goalies in the NHL. :lol

I don't think that's what the link says at all.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Let me see if I'm following you correctly... when someone tries to say that one of their prospects (Balej) is EASILY better than one of my prospects (SEJNA), I'm not allowed to debate that? I just have to say yes sir you are correct sir?

I'm just curious... what higher power decided that everything that you say is correct and that anyone that argues with you is wrong? Huh? Nobody. You are no more qualified than anyone else on these boards so quit trying to act like anyone that argues with your homer-ish point with their own homer-ish point is any more of a homer than you are.

Hey, I only claimed he was easily better then Sejna last year and that's pretty much a fact. Sejna struggled the year in the AHL and Balej outright dominated. I mean, are you really still trying to compare them last year?

 

[degroat*]

Like I said, only if you stop them...

Facing more shots doesn't help your sv% unless you are actually stopping those shots.

If you give up 2 goals on 20 shots, or 3 on 30, it's still the same %... just assuming those extra shots are there to be stopped isn't very practical. Just because you face an extra 10 or 11 shots per game, it doesn't mean you will automatically stop them.

That being said, Dub only faces an average of 2 more shots per game (or something like that).

Just assuming that those extra shots aren't going to be stopped might not be practical, but that is in fact what happens.

 

[degroat*]

Hey, I only claimed he was easily better then Sejna last year and that's pretty much a fact. Sejna struggled the year in the AHL and Balej outright dominated. I mean, are you really still trying to compare them last year?

Am I still trying to compare them last year? When did I ever compare them last year? I conceded in that thread that there was no question which player had the better year last year. But, the thread in question here was about who was better or who you would rather have, not who had the better year. My stance in that thread was that I had no problem with someone thinking that Balej was better but that to say that he was 'easily' a better player than Sejna was simply not true.

 

[dawgbone]

Just assuming that those extra shots aren't going to be stopped might not be practical, but that is in fact what happens.

No it doesn't.

Not for every goalie. If you usually face 30 shots and give up 3 goals, on a day you get 40 shots you won't necessarily stop them all, or 50 shots... chances are you'll be giving up 4, 5, 6 goals...

In the end, it balances out fairly well. You may have a busy night and kick away 36 shots and get a shutout, but at some other point during the season, you'll get pulled after 4 goals on 14 shots (or something like that).

I certainly don't buy into this line of thinking, and it certainly doesn't pertain to the difference in numbers between Dubnyk and Schwarz...

 

[degroat*]

I'm not saying that it pertains to these two particular goaltenders, but the stats show that facing more shots is good for your save percentage. This isn't my opinion. This is what the stats say.

 

[Bileur]

.

Pep pills?

 

[dawgbone]

I'm not saying that it pertains to these two particular goaltenders, but the stats show that facing more shots is good for your save percentage. This isn't my opinion. This is what the stats say.

I'd argue that stopping more shots is good for your save %... not necessarily facing them. I mean Fleury last year faced 38 shots per game and had a sv% in the low .880's... the extra shots sure didn't help him.

And I don't see how the stats say anything...

[pre]
Goalie Shots/game Sv%

Roloson 27.9 .933
Kipper 25.2 .933
Luongo 31.4 .931
Raycroft 27.8 .926
Aebischer 27.6 .924
Nabakov 28.0 .921
Theodore 28.2 .919
[/pre]

I am not finding where the stats are that the more shots you face, the better your save %... unless you are saying if each goalie faced more shots, his sv% would be better, but that's not proven, that's an opinion.

IMO, it all evens out at the end of the long season.

 

[degroat*]

I'm curious what I have said in this thread that made you believe that I think that shots faced is the only factor determining save percentage? Common sense suggests that player ability might be a factor.

I'm also curious if you actually clicked on the link I posted above. In case you didn't, here's the important information:

Shots Faced, Save Percentage
Less than 20, .889
20-24, .901
25-29, .915
30-34, .919
35+, .929

If shots facing more shots wasn't good for your save percentage, then why was the leaguewide save percentage for facing 35 or more shots 40 points higher than facing less than 20 shots in 2002-03?

 

[Levitate]

sweet jesus i can't believe you two are still arguing over balej and senja

 

[dawgbone]

I'm curious what I have said in this thread that made you believe that I think that shots faced is the only factor determining save percentage? Common sense suggests that player ability might be a factor.

You said it was statistically proven that if you face more shots, you will have a higher save%...

I'm also curious if you actually clicked on the link I posted above. In case you didn't, here's the important information:

Shots Faced, Save Percentage
Less than 20, .889
20-24, .901
25-29, .915
30-34, .919
35+, .929

If shots facing more shots wasn't good for your save percentage, then why was the leaguewide save percentage for facing 35 or more shots 40 points higher than facing less than 20 shots in 2002-03?[/QUOTE]

I'm sorry, I must have missed where degroat.net became a reliable source for hockey information... forgive my skepticism.

That's fine and dandy, but lets answer the real question... the more shots you face the higher your save %... which is still wrong. If it were true, the goalies who faced the most shots per game would have, on average, the highest save %... it's simply not true (30 goalies who faced the most shots this season):

[pre]
GP Saves Shots MP SA/G Sv% Sv% Rank

LUONGO 72 2303 2475 4,251 34.93 0.931 2
CARON 40 1041 1179 2,212 31.98 0.883 30
KOLZIG 63 1778 1958 3,738 31.43 0.908 22
DENIS 66 1808 1970 3,795 31.15 0.918 8
GIGUERE 55 1483 1623 3,210 30.34 0.914 12
BURKE 47 1183 1302 2,620 29.82 0.909 20
LEIGHTON 34 888 987 1,987 29.80 0.900 27
FERNANDEZ 37 966 1056 2,166 29.25 0.915 11
BOUCHER 40 1042 1150 2,363 29.20 0.906 24
BIRON 52 1317 1442 2,971 29.12 0.913 14
DUNHAM 57 1363 1522 3,148 29.01 0.896 29
NURMINEN 64 1619 1792 3,738 28.76 0.903 26
THEODORE 67 1710 1860 3,960 28.18 0.919 7
NABOKOV 59 1483 1610 3,455 27.96 0.921 5
ROLOSON 48 1234 1323 2,846 27.89 0.933 1
VOKOUN 73 1780 1958 4,221 27.83 0.909 21
RAYCROFT 57 1469 1586 3,420 27.82 0.926 3
AEBISCHER 62 1574 1703 3,702 27.60 0.924 4
DIPIETRO 50 1149 1261 2,843 26.61 0.911 17
CECHMANEK 49 1085 1198 2,701 26.61 0.906 23
CLOUTIER 60 1420 1554 3,539 26.35 0.914 13
WEEKES 66 1506 1652 3,764 26.33 0.912 16
LEGACE 41 937 1019 2,325 26.30 0.920 6
KHABIBULIN 55 1287 1414 3,273 25.92 0.910 18
BELFOUR 59 1361 1483 3,444 25.84 0.918 9
SALO 49 1041 1160 2,790 24.95 0.897 28
OSGOOD 67 1460 1604 3,861 24.93 0.910 19
BRODEUR 75 1691 1845 4,554 24.31 0.917 10
LALIME 57 1207 1334 3,324 24.08 0.905 25
TURCO 73 1504 1648 4,359 22.68 0.913 15
[/pre]

As we can see, that isn't the case.

[pre]
Shots sv% Average Rank sv%

30 + 14.8 .914
28.5-30 21.6 .906
27-28.5 9.5 .921
25-27 14.5 .913
under 25 19.4 .909
[/pre]

The average NHL goalie faces an average of 26 shots per game (completely rounded). And it is in that area where the save % is the highest. Between 25-28 shots per game.

Like I said, in the end, it all evens out. If it truely was that the more shots you faced, the better your save%, then the goalies facing 30+ shots every night would be the ones who had the best sv%... and they don't.

 

[degroat*]

If it were true, the goalies who faced the most shots per game would have, on average, the highest save %

The only way that statement is true is if you don't believe that factors such as physical ability and talent factor into a goaltenders save percentage.

Is that you what you believe?

 

[JR#9*]

Stitch...how many times have you actually seen this kid play with your own 2 eyes?

 

[degroat*]

Stitch...how many times have you actually seen this kid play with your own 2 eyes?

Exactly zero times. Your point? I have absolutely no problem admitting that because there is plenty of evidence to support my claim that Montoya should not be 26 spots higher than Schwarz.... like the opinion of every reputuable scouting publication just 5 months ago.

I'm sorry if I put more into those opinions than the opinions of some people that have maybe seen each of them play a handful of times.

 

[JR#9*]

My point is your making a HUGE deal comparing and contrasting 2 players very much in their developmental stages and aside from that it is hard to take seriously an arguement put forth with such resounding conviction when in fact the person trying to sell this arguement has never actually seen the player play!!

Selectively picking from scouting reports can lend support to most any arguement one wants to make here in regards to prospects.

That is my point.