Marek Schwarz by the numbers

[degroat*]

Even the WHL stat system must have a bias against Blues prospects! Probably God does as well! Hell, my grandma hates Blues prospects, too even if she's never watched a game!

BIAS BIAS BIAS!!!!!

I think I speak for everyone when I say that I have no clue what HFBoards.com would do without your quality contributions. Keep 'em coming!

:lol

 

[HabLover]

Facing more shots is GOOD for a goaltenders save percentage.

That comment shows me you know absolutely nothing about the game of hockey and math for that matter!!

 

[Asiaoil]

Feel free to go back and show me where I made an excuse for Schwarz's numbers. The only thing I have said about them is that they're not surprising given the fact that it was and still is rather well known that his fundamentals need work.

Which is why he dropped in the draft and was clearly not considered a better prospect than Montoya or Dubnyk. Hell the rumour out there was that St Louis was going to take Dubnyk if he was available.

LOOKING like a great goalie is different than BEING a great goalie - and until he fixes his fundementals Schwarz will continue to look good while fishing pucks out of the back of the net.

 

[HabLover]

Have to keep in mind this is Dubynk's 4th year in the WHL.

Schwarz will probably need time to adept, and if he is getting overworked and hung out to dry it won't help.

Can you explain to me how this is Dubnyk's 4th season in the WHL??

and Carey Price in Tri Cities, is a 17 yr old with close to the same minutes played, better numbers and playing on a crappy team. So don't come with the overworked, hung out to dry comment!

 

[littleHossa]

Schwarz does have some good technical skills, one of the fastest gloves, very agile, he can be taught positioning. Maybe he's not strong mentally, that could be a problem, but could also be sorted out with a good goalie coach. The Blues now have a good scouting staff and their picks should be looked at that way, their scouting staff knows more than we do.

 

[Ruckus007]

There is no denying it, Schwartz hasn't been the goalie that he Giants hoped so far. They are struggling on the whole, but Marek needs to be better, and I'm sure he'd be the first to tell you. However there are a lot of intangibles to consider first before you label him a bust, new culture and all...

I would say from what I have seen his positioning is the problem (at least from highlights) seems he's always got to dive across the net. I have only watched one game live, and Schwartz struggled. I don't know who the Giants have as a goalie coach, but someone has to teach this kid some positioning. Fast and agile, but needs to make himself bigger and have to move less.

I agree with Levitate that you make a strong point here. I'm no goalie prospect expert but from watching Mika Noronen as a rookie in Rochester and Kari Lehtonen last year in preseason there's at least evidence to support that these young, uber-talented goalies tend to have somewhat questionable positioning fundamentals when they come over to NA. It's like they're just getting by on pure skill alone. The jury's still out on Noronen though his positioning is far improved. Lehtonen's not just a reflex goalie anymore. Schwarz can easily adapt.

 

[Narnia]

Can you explain to me how this is Dubnyk's 4th season in the WHL??

and Carey Price in Tri Cities, is a 17 yr old with close to the same minutes played, better numbers and playing on a crappy team. So don't come with the overworked, hung out to dry comment!

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php3?pid=00062478

 

[Flames Draft Watcher]

That comment shows me you know absolutely nothing about the game of hockey and math for that matter!!

How come? Let's say a goalie let's in an average of 2 goals per game. If he faces 35 shots, that's a save percentage of .943. If he faces 20 shots a game, that's a save percentage of .900.

Quite an easy illustration of how more shots can give you a higher save percentage. So is my math wrong or do I know nothing about hockey?

 

[Senor Rational]

I wouldn't put much stock into Schwarz's numbers, so Blues fans can step back from the ledges and release the sharp objects.
QUOTE]


:beatup: ........





...I wasnt gunna do anything.....

 

[MaV]

these young, uber-talented goalies tend to have somewhat questionable positioning fundamentals when they come over to NA. It's like they're just getting by on pure skill alone.

I'd like to think it's mainly because of the questionable rink size and questionable decisions the forwards make with the puck.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

I think I speak for everyone when I say that I have no clue what HFBoards.com would do without your quality contributions. Keep 'em coming!

:lol

You're the biggest homer here and get offended when someone, God forbid, even thinks that a Blues prospect isn't something awesome. You are a joke. Please hit the x in the upper right corner and forget the URL here.

Seriously.

 

[Cerebral]

How come? Let's say a goalie let's in an average of 2 goals per game. If he faces 35 shots, that's a save percentage of .943. If he faces 20 shots a game, that's a save percentage of .900.

Quite an easy illustration of how more shots can give you a higher save percentage. So is my math wrong or do I know nothing about hockey?

The problem is that the goaltender will likely give up more than 2 goals a game if he faces 35 shots/game rather than 20. Are these 15 shots you hypothetically suggest automatically going to be saved? More shots do give you a higher save percentage but only if you save those shots.

 

[Epsilon]

Oh man, not a save percentage vs. shots allowed debate. This thread will last 15 posts tops before it turns into Luongo vs. Brodeur, Panthers homers vs. Devils homers.

 

[Greg7]

^haha, agree

Let's get back to Schwarz. His play has been subpar, and say what you want, he has been overworked. Only a fool would deny that. He just finished playing all 3 games of a back to back to back weekend. As evidence of fatigue: at the start of the year, he was making ridiculous saves and lots of big saves, but of late he has been unable to make any big saves at all. HE IS TIRED. However, this is not the only reason for his poor numbers. He has struggled adjusting to his new reference points in the narrower North American rink and his positioning has suffered, and he goes down too much and relies too much on pure reflex saves (which he hasn't been able to make lately, presumably because he's too tired).

Giants just picked up a backup goalie from AJHL that used to play for Red Deer, Adam Jennings. Hopefully Hay will have more confidence in him and play him once in a while to rest Schwarz.

As the season goes on, I think it's safe to say Schwarz's numbers will improve.

 

[letterH]

Tired??????????? Give me a break, most number 1 guys play a whack of games at this level. Guard played game after game last year, as will Nastiuk etc this year. Why all the excuses, he has played poorly and underchieved so far. Man, I bet him and Hay would be the first to admit it.

 

[Greg7]

Schwarz has played EVERY SINGLE GAME, including 3 nights in a row twice. That is absolutely ridiculous. I'm not denying he's underachieved, read my post again. His positioning is poor, he leaves the top half of the net open too often, and he relies too much on pure reactions. There is no denying, however, that his play has steadily deteriorated over the course of the season, and I have to believe fatigue is a part of that. The only point I was really making is that I expect him to improve.

 

[Winston Wolf]

Tired??????????? Give me a break, most number 1 guys play a whack of games at this level. Guard played game after game last year, as will Nastiuk etc this year. Why all the excuses, he has played poorly and underchieved so far. Man, I bet him and Hay would be the first to admit it.

That's a lot of games for a North American goaltender, for a European that's a ****load. He'll gain endurance over the years as he gets used to more games.

 

[The Boot]

Tired??????????? Give me a break, most number 1 guys play a whack of games at this level. Guard played game after game last year, as will Nastiuk etc this year. Why all the excuses, he has played poorly and underchieved so far. Man, I bet him and Hay would be the first to admit it.

Perhaps the fact that he is new to playing so many games could make a big difference? He played a total of 23 games in the 2003-2004 season excluding the WJC's. He does have to make that adjustment. At this point i'm not going to rag on him all that much for his poor play. However if he continues to play this way later in the season and especially if it continues next season I think it would be a cause for concern.

 

[NYRangers]

Being tired could be a small part of it. But you cannot blame his stats on that alone.

 

[Bileur]

Tired??????????? Give me a break, most number 1 guys play a whack of games at this level. Guard played game after game last year, as will Nastiuk etc this year. Why all the excuses, he has played poorly and underchieved so far. Man, I bet him and Hay would be the first to admit it.

All I know is the stats, those say that Marek has played 325 minutes (5.4 games) more than Nastiuk, 218 minutes (3.6 games) more than Price, and 246 minutes (4.1 games) more than Dubnyk. Plus it looks like he's already played more minutes this year with the Giants (1343) than he did last year in the Czech league (the whole year) http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/teams/player_bio.asp?player_id=4788&hubName=STL.

I dont really know (since I cant watch the Giants ) but if you add these minute factors (huge workload which it doesent look like he is used to) to the culture/ice size problems and it looks like his poor performance might be due to outside factors more than lack of ability.

I agree with other posters who have written that its too early to tell, give him time to adapt to NA and maybe rest a little and we might see a diffrent Schwarz.

( 7 shutouts already for Nastiuk? Oh, and I had started this post before others replied.)

 

[Boondock Saint]

Can you explain to me how this is Dubnyk's 4th season in the WHL??

and Carey Price in Tri Cities, is a 17 yr old with close to the same minutes played, better numbers and playing on a crappy team. So don't come with the overworked, hung out to dry comment!

Devan Dubnyk

19GP 6W 11L 2T 2.35GAA .918SV%

Carey Price

19GP 8W 8L 3T 2.72GAA .913SV%

And as has been pointed out, this is Dubnyk's fourth season in the 'Dub.

Maybe you should just stick to the Habs boards and do some homework before commenting on other teams' prospects.

 

[Oiltalk]

Devan Dubnyk

19GP 6W 11L 2T 2.35GAA .918SV%

Carey Price

19GP 8W 8L 3T 2.72GAA .913SV%

And as has been pointed out, this is Dubnyk's fourth season in the 'Dub.

Maybe you should just stick to the Habs boards and do some homework before commenting on other teams' prospects.

He was referring to Mr. Schwarz when mentioning the numbers.

 

[Boondock Saint]

He was referring to Mr. Schwarz when mentioning the numbers.

Well, shame on me.

I assumed that with the first comment about Dubnyk, he was also the goalie referred to in the second part of the post.

 

[HabLover]

Schwarz has played EVERY SINGLE GAME, including 3 nights in a row twice. That is absolutely ridiculous. I'm not denying he's underachieved, read my post again. His positioning is poor, he leaves the top half of the net open too often, and he relies too much on pure reactions. There is no denying, however, that his play has steadily deteriorated over the course of the season, and I have to believe fatigue is a part of that. The only point I was really making is that I expect him to improve.

Isn't Schwarz like 18 or 19?? I could see if he was in his early 50's then you could use the fatigue factor as an excuse, but c'mon, the guy is young and should be full of piss and vinegar!!

 

[HabLover]

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php3?pid=00062478

look at the stats genius.....it makes it pretty tough for Dubnyk to play in 2001/2002 when he's only 15!....and 3 games hardly makes up a season in my books!