GDT: Maple Leafs (31-21-8) @ Penguins (36-15-6) | 7:00 PM EST | SN, NBCSN

[MSZ]

Not sure I agree with the player deployment by Keefe here.

Does he have a choice? This is what it is until Reilly is available.

 

[biotk]

GSAA is what you're looking for and Freddy is well below average there as well. He's 10th last and has saved 8-9 goals less than a league average goaltender would be "expected" to on the volume and quality of shots faced.

For context, Rask is outperforming his expected goals against by 8-9, he's helping Boston's D roughly to the same degree that Andersen is letting his down.

Andersen's save percentage on just HD shots is .768%, Rask's is .882%. I get that our defense is bad, but for our defense to be the reason for Freddy's numbers being what they are, we wouldn't just have to be the worst defense in the league, we'd have to be the worst defense in the league by an ENORMOUS margin even compared to lottery teams.

GSAA doesn't actually look at quality of shots, such as high danger, just the quantity. The idea of GSAA is that, for instance, a goalie who has a 0.925 SV but faces 35 shots a game is probably better than a goalie who has a 0.930 but faces 20 shots a game - so it makes an adjustment that way - calculating what the average goalie would allow if facing 35 shots in a game, or what the average goalie would allow if facing 20 shots in a game etc.

When I want to look at goalies based on shot quality I usually compare GA vs xGA (I have to calculate this myself as no site does the comparison). So for instance Freddie has allowed 1.166 GA per xGA. That is 43rd among the 62 goalies with the most minutes this season. Freddie was 20th last year allowing 1.009 GA per xGA. That is a massive difference between seasons. (Note xGF and xGA have been skewed over the years due to the reduced size of goalie equipment etc. The league average is probably around 1.09 or 1.1 GA per xGA).

 

[tmlfan98]

Nightmare timeline: Gauthier scores and Leafs lose.

 

[lottster14]

People are acting as if Anderson can't bounce back to his regular, above average play that CAN get the leafs a series win in the playoffs. He's playing tonight and will remain the starter from here on if deserved. He needs to pick himself back up and get his confidence back, we can't just switch to Campbell now expecting him to be the leafs 2020 playoff Messiah.

 

[Kiwi]

Imagine if Florida wasn’t tanking hard.

We'd be ******, they have done us a favor and it's time to make it count for something

 

[DarkKnight]

We'd be ******, they have done us a favor and it's time to make it count for something

Urgency, that’s my word for the year. Lack thereof...

Let’s see some fire in our game.

 

[DarkKnight]

Marincin is like a toe fungus.

 

[tom leafers]

We'd be ******, they have done us a favor and it's time to make it count for something

Toronto has done fine keeping pace with the wildcard teams as well though so I don’t think the situation is as dire as some people are making it out to be.

I agree though, we better get our shit together or were done.

When was the last time Toronto even best one of the top teams in the league? Feels like a long time ago

 

[GardinerTheForward]

We shoulda got Demelo

 

[Al14]

We shoulda got Demelo

If all it cost was a 3rd rounder, why not?

Dubas has to have his heart set on a bigger fish. Unless, he missed out because he was taking his afternoon nap.

 

[Mess]

If all it cost was a 3rd rounder, why not?

Dubas has to have his heart set on a bigger fish. Unless, he missed out because he was taking his afternoon nap.

Leafs don't have any 3rd round picks until 2022 as Dubas already trade away his 2020, 2021 & conditional 3rd bringing in Campbell and Clifford and Barrie.

 

[Al14]

Leafs don't have any 3rd round picks until 2022 as Dubas already trade away his 2020, 2021 bringing in Campbell and Barrie.

Go figure. I forgot that fact.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Is Marincin confirmed in for Liljegren? If so what the actual f***. No other organization would do this because it's a player's birthday. We need to be icing our best guys if making the playoffs is the goal. Jesus

 

[GardinerTheForward]

Leafs don't have any 3rd round picks until 2022 as Dubas already trade away his 2020, 2021 & conditional 3rd bringing in Campbell and Clifford and Barrie.

This is a case to me where we probably tried to give them an equivalent package but Eugene Melnyk is a bitch and doesn’t want his players traded within the division

 

[Kamiccolo]

Is Marincin confirmed in for Liljegren? If so what the actual ****. No other organization would do this because it's a player's birthday. We need to be icing our best guys if making the playoffs is the goal. Jesus

Yeah seriously. There is a lack of urgency all around this org. Over confident and over inflated self worth top to bottom it seems.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Where do the Leafs rank in HD chances against?

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Is Marincin confirmed in for Liljegren? If so what the actual ****. No other organization would do this because it's a player's birthday. We need to be icing our best guys if making the playoffs is the goal. Jesus

Its because they want Marincin for the PK.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Leafs don't have any 3rd round picks until 2022 as Dubas already trade away his 2020, 2021 & conditional 3rd bringing in Campbell and Clifford and Barrie.

I doubt leafs are looking for depth. They are looking for a long term solution to pair with Rielly.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Its because they want Marincin for the PK.

I get that but at least with Liljegren you can be confident he won't get buried in any other situation.

 

[MapleLeafs9]

Where do the Leafs rank in HD chances against?

27th with 548 against. 1st is the Wild with 369 against, 31st is the Jets with 633 against.

But to put HDCA in context, we're actually 11th in HDCF% at 51.29%. We give up a lot, but give more.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

Yay for 10 game sample sizes to paint a bad picture..

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Is this better. Stats compiling the entire season showing Andersen to be 42 in HDSV% at .812, 1 spot up and .002 above Quick's .810. Hutchinson is 48 at .805, just .007 difference between the 2. Campbell over the season is even worse than this, but in the 4 games for the Leafs he has a .912 HDSV%.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Is there a stat that adjusts for High Danger chances?

I feel like it's a lot easier to be be a .920 goalie on certain other teams.

We've been around the middle of the pack in high danger chances given up. Freddie has been baddd.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Where do the Leafs rank in HD chances against?

Even-strength:
HDCA/60: 21st out of 31 teams (Better than Washington, Vancouver, Florida, Islanders, etc surprisingly).
xGA/60: 18th out of 31 teams

Those are stats for the full-season ^. They're better since Keefe got hired, but still not great tbh (average to a little below average).

 

[Kamiccolo]

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Is this better. Stats compiling the entire season showing Andersen to be 42 in HDSV% at .812, 1 spot up and .002 above Quick's .810. Hutchinson is 48 at .805, just .007 difference between the 2. Campbell over the season is even worse than this, but in the 4 games for the Leafs he has a .912 HDSV%.

I don't get why Freddy is the one untouchable on here and in the media. I am a huge fan, I know he is much better than he has been. That doesn't mean he hasn't been utter garbage this year.

 

[IPS]

Where do the Leafs rank in HD chances against?

It's been rehashed several times.

The Leafs aren't surrendering anything out of the ordinary as far as middle of the pack defensive teams go.

Goaltending is 100% our biggest obstacle nowadays.