GDT: Maple Leafs (31-21-8) @ Penguins (36-15-6) | 7:00 PM EST | SN, NBCSN

[MapleLeafs9]

Been a while since I've done a GDT, why not. If anyone's wondering, I was '4uston Matthews', 'MapleLeafs9' was my original name before I changed to that in 2016. Changed it back sometime in December.

Toronto Maple Leafs (31-21-8) @ Pittsburgh Penguins (36-15-6)
PPG Paints Arena
7:00 PM EST
TV: Sportsnet, NBCSN
Radio: SN590

Big game, need to bounce back after the embarrassing loss to Buffalo and answer Florida's W last night. Time to start consistently showing up to games or we WILL miss the playoffs. Marchment was reassigned to the Marlies earlier today, Korshkov and Liljegren are healthy scratches in favour of Timashov and Marincin. Freddy Andersen gets the start.

Projected Lineups:


Forwards
Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Nylander - Tavares - Kerfoot
Engvall - Gauthier - Kapanen
Clifford - Spezza - Timashov

Defence
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Barrie
Dermott - Marincin

Goalies
Andersen
Campbell

Extras/injuries
Rielly (ankle)
Mikheyev (wrist)
Ceci (ankle)
Johnsson (knee)
Liljegren (healthy scratch)
Korshkov (healthy scratch)



Forwards
Zucker - Crosby - Simon
McCann - Malkin - Rust
Tanev - Blueger - Hornqvist
Kahun - Agozzino - Lafferty

Defence
Johnson - Letang
Pettersson - Schultz
Riikola - Ruhwedel

Goalies
Jarry
Murray

*leafs lines taken from @markhmasters on twitter, pens lines taken from their GDT, could be changes


GO LEAFS GO!​

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[ShaneFalco]

 

[tmlms13]

On paper that Pitt lineup isn't really any better than the Leafs. Says a lot about the character of the Leafs team.

 

[MapleLeafs9]

On paper that Pitt lineup isn't really any better than the Leafs. Says a lot about the character of the Leafs team.

See the above post by @SAMCRO44 on why we're struggling so much lately.

 

[tmlms13]

See the above post by @SAMCRO44 on why we're struggling so much lately.

I made that post before I saw that reply.... Posts here happen fast.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

On paper that Pitt lineup isn't really any better than the Leafs. Says a lot about the character of the Leafs team.

It actually says a lot about goaltending and having a good coach for the entire season

 

[MapleLeafs9]

It actually says a lot about goaltending and having a good coach for the entire season

Yup, other than November, Fred hasn't been reliable for literally the entire season, Babcock was Babcock and Hutchinson was Hutchinson. All huge parts of why we are where we are currently.

 

[ACC1224]

Any confirmed lines? Starting goalie?

 

[MattySnipes]

Hey looks guys, it's the Maple Leafs multi-nominated MVP according to some here. 57th overall in Even Strength SV% since Jan 6th. Where would we be this year with goalies that gave us a chance?

 

[Martin Skoula]

Yup, other than November, Fred hasn't been reliable for literally the entire season, Babcock was Babcock and Hutchinson was Hutchinson. All huge parts of why we are where we are currently.

Those are some really unfair expectations. You're telling me you expect better than worst in the league goaltending down the stretch?

 

[leafsfan5]

Holy shit Rask is insane lol

hopefully Freddy is solid tonight and we actually show up for more than 10 minutes. Saying all that, just get the win anyway you can. I’d rather play ass and win than play amazing and lose at this stage of the season

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Yup, other than November, Fred hasn't been reliable for literally the entire season, Babcock was Babcock and Hutchinson was Hutchinson. All huge parts of why we are where we are currently.

Hutch was bad, but I don't think in the grand scheme of things it will make a difference as long as we make the playoffs. I mean Tampa and Boston were still going to be 1/2 in the division even if we had a proper backup, because they are currently 1/2 in the NHL.

Andersen has been the main concern. Hutch sucking is one thing, but Andersen being marginally better is another. If Andersen plays like he did last year, we are comfortably in a playoff spot and one of the top teams in the NHL, even with our defense. Andersen is below average even taking our defense and injuries into account.

Iffy defense is hard, but still manageable. Especially since our iffy defense is still average (once fully healthy anyways). What Andersen has been giving is absolutely unacceptable.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Any confirmed lines? Starting goalie?

The lines posted are what is to be expected barring any last minute changes due to illness or something.

 

[MapleLeafs9]

Any confirmed lines? Starting goalie?

The lines in OP look to be the lines tonight for both the Leafs and Pens

 

[Merrrlin]

Hey looks guys, it's the Maple Leafs multi-nominated MVP according to some here. 57th overall in Even Strength SV% since Jan 6th. Where would we be this year with goalies that gave us a chance?

View attachment 322705

Is there a stat that adjusts for High Danger chances?

I feel like it's a lot easier to be be a .920 goalie on certain other teams.

 

[IPS]

Hey looks guys, it's the Maple Leafs multi-nominated MVP according to some here. 57th overall in Even Strength SV% since Jan 6th. Where would we be this year with goalies that gave us a chance?

Wow, that is mind-blowing.

Bobrovsky - who has been horrible this year - still has a significantly higher ES SV% than Freddy. Florida's GA are about as bad as ours too.

This can't be defended, Freddy has been horrific.

 

[ACC1224]

The lines in OP look to be the lines tonight for both the Leafs and Pens

So Andersen starts and Marincin is playing?

 

[Dave92]

Goaltending has been garbage, but team defense does it no favors. Rask would not have a .930 on the Leafs.

 

[GoonieFace]

Is there a stat that adjusts for High Danger chances?

I feel like it's a lot easier to be be a .920 goalie on certain other teams.

Yeah a little more context would be nice. Andersen has not been good, but he doesnt get much help either.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Is there a stat that adjusts for High Danger chances?

I feel like it's a lot easier to be be a .920 goalie on certain other teams.

GSAA is what you're looking for and Freddy is well below average there as well. He's 10th last and has saved 8-9 goals less than a league average goaltender would be "expected" to on the volume and quality of shots faced.

For context, Rask is outperforming his expected goals against by 8-9, he's helping Boston's D roughly to the same degree that Andersen is letting his down.

Andersen's save percentage on just HD shots is .768%, Rask's is .882%. I get that our defense is bad, but for our defense to be the reason for Freddy's numbers being what they are, we wouldn't just have to be the worst defense in the league, we'd have to be the worst defense in the league by an ENORMOUS margin even compared to lottery teams.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Must be up there with first shot of the game/period goals against too

 

[tom leafers]

how does trading Nylander have anything to do with it though?

 

[ShaneFalco]

how does trading Nylander have anything to do with it though?

He's being facetious as many people constantly talk about trading him

 

[tom leafers]

He's being facetious as many people constantly talk about trading him

ahh okay. the sarcasm eluded me on that one.

thanks

 

[MapleLeafs9]

So Andersen starts and Marincin is playing?

Yup, those were the lines at morning skate today, and it's apparently Marincin's birthday today. Keefe being a player's coach and all.