Management Thread - The Beat Goes On

[Jack Burton]

Cap space doesn't matter...

I love this post!


Pretty much sums up the last 6 years.

 

[vanuck]

Would pasta of had the same success on the canucks if we drafted him?

Why not?

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

Would pasta of had the same success on the canucks if we drafted him?

Maybe his production would be a little lower, but he would still be an elite player. People said the same thing about Panarin's production being a result of playing with Kane.

Playing here wasn't a problem for Horvat, Boeser or Pettersson.

 

[CpatainCanuck]

So the Canucks are up against the cap while rebuilding and with their two best players on entry level contracts.

 

[F A N]

So the Canucks are up against the cap while rebuilding and with their two best players on entry level contracts.

Over the years there are many posters who thought the key was to win when your best players are on their ELC like when Kane/Toews and Malkin/Staal (Penguins went to the Finals when Crosby were in the 3rd year of his ELC). Of course, in order to do that you have to make moves to win in the short term after you draft those players.

Regardless, the most important contract going forward will likely be Petey's. When Hughes ELC expires, Edler's contract expires as well. Myers is currently the only other big ticket contract on D. Unless Hughes is point per game and contends for the Norris next year, his contract will likely be under $8M. Provorov, for example, signed a 6 year $6.75M contract last summer. The Canucks can also wait on Makar's contract which is unlikely to go over that $8M AAV mark.

 

[Peter10]

Over the years there are many posters who thought the key was to win when your best players are on their ELC like when Kane/Toews and Malkin/Staal (Penguins went to the Finals when Crosby were in the 3rd year of his ELC). Of course, in order to do that you have to make moves to win in the short term after you draft those players.

Regardless, the most important contract going forward will likely be Petey's. When Hughes ELC expires, Edler's contract expires as well. Myers is currently the only other big ticket contract on D. Unless Hughes is point per game and contends for the Norris next year, his contract will likely be under $8M. Provorov, for example, signed a 6 year $6.75M contract last summer. The Canucks can also wait on Makar's contract which is unlikely to go over that $8M AAV mark.

I dont think Provorov is a good example, his point production is far worse than Hughes although he is better in other areas of the game. Chabot scored at a similar rate in his second season and the contract he got is 8m/y. His rookie season was less impressive than Hughes. Anything below 8m for Hughes would be a huge surprise unless of course he takes a short term deal of 2 or 3 years.

 

[bandwagonesque]

I dont think Provorov is a good example, his point production is far worse than Hughes although he is better in other areas of the game. Chabot scored at a similar rate in his second season and the contract he got is 8m/y. His rookie season was less impressive than Hughes. Anything below 8m for Hughes would be a huge surprise unless of course he takes a short term deal of 2 or 3 years.

Zach Werenski, generally considered the best young two-way defenceman in the league, got 5m on a three-year term. You're ignoring the contracts young players are actually getting in order to rationalize undue pessimism.

 

[Bob Long]

I think the Benning hate is a little over the top at times. I think the Benning support is a lot over the top at times.

Many posters have broken down Benning’s contributions over his tenure and the fact of the matter is, he’s done some good, but more bad.

Shouldn’t we want someone in the big seat that does more good than bad?

Is wanting that “hating”? Seems more like logic.

no its not hating if its done reasonably.

 

[rypper]

Zach Werenski, generally considered the best young two-way defenceman in the league, got 5m on a three-year term. You're ignoring the contracts young players are actually getting in order to rationalize undue pessimism.

Werenski signed a bridge deal, which is what @Peter10 allowed for (...unless he takes a short term deal of 2 or 3 years...)

In his final year the salary goes up to 7 million which is where his next, longer term deal will start.

Both are reasonable examples of each kind of contract to expect for Hughes. Personally I'd rather lock him up with the long term Chabot style deal but that might not be realistic with our cap situation.

 

[Bob Long]

You’re arguing the degree of the reaction rather than the cause for the reaction. The cause is what is important. I'm not too worried about the degree because there will be hyperbole, it's a message board after all.

If there is fabrication here regarding Brackett’s departure, without sourced material, please show it. Show your homework.

That Brackett thread which is now closed shut the door on a select contingent of posters here. It was amazing. The amount of material referenced in that thread to legitimate media members, in such a short span, is really unprecedented here on HF VAN. It was like full access behind the scenes.

If there are enough (quantity) mistakes to be mad about (emotion), then why question the emotion? Question the quantity! Question why the mistake maker is still employed.

I'd argue how 'amazing' it was. The majority of all that twitter spin was people repeating the same rumours. There was literally nothing else to talk about at the time thanks to covid. So I don't put any stock into the amount of coverage given how unique a time we're in.

No one named a source. No one stepped forward with a provable piece of info. Some guy says some former scout said someone wasn't Jim's pick. Thats about the extent of the so-called reporting.

If you want to believe that level of speculation thats OK, I don't care. But the Judd speculation is a lot like the Pasta speculation going on again in this thread. We have one camp of reporters saying Jim didn't listen to his scouts, we have another saying Jim was mad his scouts didn't identify Pasta as a good pick. Who's right? you can't split the difference on that one and believe a little of column a and a little of column b.

 

[Bob Long]

Over the years there are many posters who thought the key was to win when your best players are on their ELC like when Kane/Toews and Malkin/Staal (Penguins went to the Finals when Crosby were in the 3rd year of his ELC). Of course, in order to do that you have to make moves to win in the short term after you draft those players.

Regardless, the most important contract going forward will likely be Petey's. When Hughes ELC expires, Edler's contract expires as well. Myers is currently the only other big ticket contract on D. Unless Hughes is point per game and contends for the Norris next year, his contract will likely be under $8M. Provorov, for example, signed a 6 year $6.75M contract last summer. The Canucks can also wait on Makar's contract which is unlikely to go over that $8M AAV mark.

The cap crunch problem isn't going to be for Petey and Hughes renegotiation years. 21/22 has us today at 40 mil in cap space, so as long as there are no more Loui type mistakes there's no reason to think we'd risk losing these two guys whatsoever due to todays roster issues.

The big problem is next season. Benning needs to find a way to shed Loui's deal, I still think thats possible.

 

[rypper]

I'd argue how 'amazing' it was. The majority of all that twitter spin was people repeating the same rumours. There was literally nothing else to talk about at the time thanks to covid. So I don't put any stock into the amount of coverage given how unique a time we're in.

No one named a source. No one stepped forward with a provable piece of info. Some guy says some former scout said someone wasn't Jim's pick. Thats about the extent of the so-called reporting.

If you want to believe that level of speculation thats OK, I don't care. But the Judd speculation is a lot like the Pasta speculation going on again in this thread. We have one camp of reporters saying Jim didn't listen to his scouts, we have another saying Jim was mad his scouts didn't identify Pasta as a good pick. Who's right? you can't split the difference on that one and believe a little of column a and a little of column b.

Iain Macintyre, since moving to Sportsnet, and even prior to, has written articles and has had tv spots that are generally neutral to favorable with regards to this management group -- I don't think that's debatable.

He's come out and said that:

But Juolevi was Benning’s choice back in 2016 because the GM wanted a defenceman and loved what he saw from the Finn at the world juniors. He could have chosen Mikhail Sergachev or Charlie McAvoy. Benning is believed to have gone with Brackett’s first-round recommendation ever since.

If you can't trust Iain Macintyre then there isn't anyone's word you will trust. No writer is going to ever say so and so scout for this team, named directly, told me this. Never. They will never burn their sources. You just have to look at the writer and their reputation.

 

[Bob Long]

Iain Macintyre, since moving to Sportsnet, and even prior to, has written articles and has had tv spots that are generally neutral to favorable with regards to this management group -- I don't think that's debatable.

He's come out and said that:



If you can't trust Iain Macintyre then there isn't anyone's word you will trust. No writer is going to ever say so and so scout for this team, named directly, told me this. Never. They will never burn their sources. You just have to look at the writer and their reputation.

All that tells us is two things, 1) Benning is the type of guy that will listen to his staff (which is a good thing btw), and 2) we don't know that Jim was wrong about Juolevi's talent level, the guy has been injury prone we don't know what he could have been without the injuries.

What is it I'm supposed to 'trust' here? that some other guy on tweety is correct too?

 

[bandwagonesque]

Werenski signed a bridge deal, which is what @Peter10 allowed for (...unless he takes a short term deal of 2 or 3 years...)

In his final year the salary goes up to 7 million which is where his next, longer term deal will start.

Both are reasonable examples of each kind of contract to expect for Hughes. Personally I'd rather lock him up with the long term Chabot style deal but that might not be realistic with our cap situation.

I'm aware of this. The poster's implication seemed to be twofold -- that a long-term deal under 8m would be extremely unusual for a player like Hughes, and that a bridge deal might come in a little under 8m. Neither of these things would seem to be plausible based on other recent contracts.

 

[Fatass]

The cap crunch problem isn't going to be for Petey and Hughes renegotiation years. 21/22 has us today at 40 mil in cap space, so as long as there are no more Loui type mistakes there's no reason to think we'd risk losing these two guys whatsoever due to todays roster issues.

The big problem is next season. Benning needs to find a way to shed Loui's deal, I still think thats possible.

Loui plus Jake and sign Tofoli with the six mil.
Sutter plus Juiolevi and sign Tanev with the 4.5 mil
These are not things (to resolve cap issues) fans want to see, but they need to be done as soon as trades are allowed. The longer JB waits to get past these bad contracts the more the cost, because we need to factor in the loss of Tofoli and Tanev.

 

[rypper]

All that tells us is two things, 1) Benning is the type of guy that will listen to his staff (which is a good thing btw), and 2) we don't know that Jim was wrong about Juolevi's talent level, the guy has been injury prone we don't know what he could have been without the injuries.

What is it I'm supposed to 'trust' here? that some other guy on tweety is correct too?

You're supposed to trust a guy who's been covering the team for 29 or so years. Perhaps in that time he's built up sources within the organization and is trustworthy.

Jim has definitely shown in the past that he will defer to his scouting team. With juolevi it's an example of tunnel vision. Drafting by position, seeing a player have a good WJC and having that boost his value in his eyes.

Rumors of this rearing it's head at the 2019 draft as well, but he again went with his team's decision.

 

[Peter10]

The cap crunch problem isn't going to be for Petey and Hughes renegotiation years. 21/22 has us today at 40 mil in cap space, so as long as there are no more Loui type mistakes there's no reason to think we'd risk losing these two guys whatsoever due to todays roster issues.

The big problem is next season. Benning needs to find a way to shed Loui's deal, I still think thats possible.

Thats not quite correct. 21-22 is a huge issue. While there are 40m in cap space, there is half a roster to fill. Here just a quick roster I did on capfriendly


FORWARDS (13)
Right wing: Brock Boeser ($5,875,000) - Jake Virtanen ($2,800,000) - Tyler Motte ($1,500,000) - Zack MacEwen ($1,000,000)
Centre: Elias Pettersson ($8,500,000) - Bo Horvat ($5,500,000) - Adam Gaudette ($1,500,000) - Jay Beagle ($3,000,000)
Left wing: J.T. Miller ($5,250,000) - Loui Eriksson ($6,000,000) - Micheal Ferland ($3,500,000) - Antoine Roussel ($3,000,000) - Nils Höglander ($891,667)
DEFENSE (7)
Right: Tyler Myers ($6,000,000) - Jalen Chatfield ($800,000) - Jett Woo ($891,666)
Left: Quinn Hughes ($8,500,000) - Brogan Rafferty ($1,000,000) - Olli Juolevi ($1,000,000) - Oscar Fantenberg ($1,500,000)
GOALTENDER (2)
Thatcher Demko ($2,000,000) - Jacob Markström ($6,000,000)
DETAILS
Roster Size: 22
Salary Cap: $81,500,000
Cap Hit: $79,041,539
Cap Space: $2,458,461
- deferred Bonus (EP,QH): $1,700,000

Cap Space: $758,461

That team is terrible in particular on defence and its not like I have calculated with big extensions, actually I think Hughes and Pettersson might get more.

 

[rypper]

I'm aware of this. The poster's implication seemed to be twofold -- that a long-term deal under 8m would be extremely unusual for a player like Hughes, and that a bridge deal might come in a little under 8m. Neither of these things would seem to be plausible based on other recent contracts.

You say that a long term deal for Hughes under 8m would be extremely unusual but provide a bridge deal as an example. If Hughes signs long term it's (in my opinion) far more likely to be in the vein of Chabot's deal or more.

And I didn't read anywhere in the original post about a bridge deal coming in a little under 8m, that was your own interpretation.

 

[Fatass]

Thats not quite correct. 21-22 is a huge issue. While there are 40m in cap space, there is half a roster to fill. Here just a quick roster I did on capfriendly


FORWARDS (13)
Right wing: Brock Boeser ($5,875,000) - Jake Virtanen ($2,800,000) - Tyler Motte ($1,500,000) - Zack MacEwen ($1,000,000)
Centre: Elias Pettersson ($8,500,000) - Bo Horvat ($5,500,000) - Adam Gaudette ($1,500,000) - Jay Beagle ($3,000,000)
Left wing: J.T. Miller ($5,250,000) - Loui Eriksson ($6,000,000) - Micheal Ferland ($3,500,000) - Antoine Roussel ($3,000,000) - Nils Höglander ($891,667)
DEFENSE (7)
Right: Tyler Myers ($6,000,000) - Jalen Chatfield ($800,000) - Jett Woo ($891,666)
Left: Quinn Hughes ($8,500,000) - Brogan Rafferty ($1,000,000) - Olli Juolevi ($1,000,000) - Oscar Fantenberg ($1,500,000)
GOALTENDER (2)
Thatcher Demko ($2,000,000) - Jacob Markström ($6,000,000)
DETAILS
Roster Size: 22
Salary Cap: $81,500,000
Cap Hit: $79,041,539
Cap Space: $2,458,461
- deferred Bonus (EP,QH): $1,700,000

Cap Space: $758,461

That team is terrible in particular on defence and its not like I have calculated with big extensions, actually I think Hughes and Pettersson might get more.

Take out Virtanen (as sweetener) and Loui, and put Ferland on LTI.
12 million saved.
Put Tanev in at 4.5 million (take out Chatfiekd and Woo) and put Rafferty on the right side, which is his natural side (RHS)
Now we have 10 million in cap to sign Tofoli.
The lineup becomes pretty good, but we must sacrifice Jake to dump Loui.

 

[Peter10]

Take out Virtanen (as sweetener) and Loui, and put Ferland on LTI.
12 million saved.
Put Tanev in at 4.5 million (take out Chatfiekd and Woo) and put Rafferty on the right side, which is his natural side (RHS)
Now we have 10 million in cap to sign Tofoli.
The lineup becomes pretty good, but we must sacrifice Jake to dump Loui.

The bottom 6 is still extremly terrible and there is still a top 6 forward missing. Also that defense is quite bad after Hughes. It will take quite some luck to have that team competing for a playoff spot.

 

[Fatass]

The bottom 6 is still extremly terrible and there is still a top 6 forward missing. Also that defense is quite bad after Hughes. It will take quite some luck to have that team competing for a playoff spot.

Top six looks good
D looks strong
Goalie is great
Plus there is available cap room to sign a UFA, or to trade (Demko?) for an upgrade at a skater spot.
We can be a stronger team, but I have zero confidence in Benning/Wisebrod being able to accomplish anything but making us worse.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

I'd argue how 'amazing' it was. The majority of all that twitter spin was people repeating the same rumours. There was literally nothing else to talk about at the time thanks to covid. So I don't put any stock into the amount of coverage given how unique a time we're in.

No one named a source. No one stepped forward with a provable piece of info. Some guy says some former scout said someone wasn't Jim's pick. Thats about the extent of the so-called reporting.

If you want to believe that level of speculation thats OK, I don't care. But the Judd speculation is a lot like the Pasta speculation going on again in this thread. We have one camp of reporters saying Jim didn't listen to his scouts, we have another saying Jim was mad his scouts didn't identify Pasta as a good pick. Who's right? you can't split the difference on that one and believe a little of column a and a little of column b.

I guess everyone is going to continue ignoring that Linden admitted it himself.

Thats not quite correct. 21-22 is a huge issue. While there are 40m in cap space, there is half a roster to fill. Here just a quick roster I did on capfriendly


FORWARDS (13)
Right wing: Brock Boeser ($5,875,000) - Jake Virtanen ($2,800,000) - Tyler Motte ($1,500,000) - Zack MacEwen ($1,000,000)
Centre: Elias Pettersson ($8,500,000) - Bo Horvat ($5,500,000) - Adam Gaudette ($1,500,000) - Jay Beagle ($3,000,000)
Left wing: J.T. Miller ($5,250,000) - Loui Eriksson ($6,000,000) - Micheal Ferland ($3,500,000) - Antoine Roussel ($3,000,000) - Nils Höglander ($891,667)
DEFENSE (7)
Right: Tyler Myers ($6,000,000) - Jalen Chatfield ($800,000) - Jett Woo ($891,666)
Left: Quinn Hughes ($8,500,000) - Brogan Rafferty ($1,000,000) - Olli Juolevi ($1,000,000) - Oscar Fantenberg ($1,500,000)
GOALTENDER (2)
Thatcher Demko ($2,000,000) - Jacob Markström ($6,000,000)
DETAILS
Roster Size: 22
Salary Cap: $81,500,000
Cap Hit: $79,041,539
Cap Space: $2,458,461
- deferred Bonus (EP,QH): $1,700,000

Cap Space: $758,461

That team is terrible in particular on defence and its not like I have calculated with big extensions, actually I think Hughes and Pettersson might get more.

8.5 is low for Pettersson. That is what Aho got on a 5 year deal. Pettersson is going to be 9.5 at minimum, unless he takes a bridge deal.

 

[Peter10]

Top six looks good
D looks strong
Goalie is great
Plus there is available cap room to sign a UFA, or to trade (Demko?) for an upgrade at a skater spot.
We can be a stronger team, but I have zero confidence in Benning/Wisebrod being able to accomplish anything but making us worse.

Top 6 is ok, but bottom 6 is Motte, McEwen, Beagle, Roussell, Hoglander (who likely wont be ready for the NHL). That is an atrocious bottom 6.

On the D there is Hughes who is fantastic and then you got Myers who is arguably not even a top 4 defenseman right now and will be another year older by then. Tanev is likely broken down by then and of all the others only Rafferty might have NHL potential, Fantenberg is a #7. And there is no cap room to sign a UFA even if one did what you said, thats barely 1.5m in capspace. Dont forget you will have to go with at least 21 players on the roster, 22 is more likely.

 

[Peter10]

8.5 is low for Pettersson. That is what Aho got on a 5 year deal. Pettersson is going to be 9.5 at minimum, unless he takes a bridge deal.

Well I actually think he is getting Marner like money, also Hughes might be in for 9m. Just wanted to show how tight 2021 already is after someone claimed it will be far more relaxed than next season.

 

[Bob Long]

Loui plus Jake and sign Tofoli with the six mil.
Sutter plus Juiolevi and sign Tanev with the 4.5 mil
These are not things (to resolve cap issues) fans want to see, but they need to be done as soon as trades are allowed. The longer JB waits to get past these bad contracts the more the cost, because we need to factor in the loss of Tofoli and Tanev.

those are good ideas. At the end of the day these are the kinds of moves that must happen. When the dust settles I'm sure there will be a full accounting of the cost of all of it.