Man Mountain's partner

[LaP]

+/- is a team stat. You'd be hard-pressed to find a regular player on a basement team with a positive +/-, and the inverse is true for players on champion teams.

Adam Larsson was +15. Their good players were pretty much all in the +. Larsson, Cammalleri, Zajac, Henrique, Palmieri, Elias, Andy Greene. All players outside of Schlemko, Josefson and Tootoo were -15 and better. With a goalie like Schneider it's not surprising. Technically speaking you should not be -22 with a goalie like that behind you even while playing for a bad team.

But that's not the point i'm trying to make anyway. My point is mostly he can't be considered a realistically good option. A 30 years old guy who played top 4 only one season in his career, for a losing team and whose pairing statistically did a poor job can't be considered a good option to play with Weber.

Just to be clear the losing team part is not me blaming Schlemko for NJ losing. It's me saying he was top 4 because the team was not good.

 

[76]

The plan about Weber's partner is however so simple to understand.

Alzner gets some ES only on specific defensive situations with Weber and plays PK with Weber. When paired, these two become the best shutdown pair in the entire league. Huge asset for the team.

Jerabek plays the rest of ES with Weber (about 15-16 min) + PP. As long as Jerabek is not ready, Streit takes those minutes. Yes Streit, who brings about what Markov would have brought, for 700K.

After that, if neither Jerabek or Streit is able to suit in for some reasons, Julien still has Schlemko (a more experienced and sounded version of Beaulieu) who can help for stretch, only if necessary (injuries, bad performances from the others,).

At this time, even a guy like Morrow (another version of Beaulieu) could be ready to help, who knows.

If nothing works as hoped, Bergevin will bring a new dman for the job by January.

There is currently no need to spend big money and trade good assets on a star LD as long as you didn't see if the initial plan works. If it works, it's a genius move that will put the Habs in an amazing situation, you still have your cap space, assets and options to enhance elsewehere during the season.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Caveat: Longer pressure has been proven to result in more goals..... because the players who apply the most pressure are the most talented! And, the players who are the most exciting to watch are also, again, generally the better players.

In the offensive zone, maybe. But you'll have a hard time proving that it has been proven with the total lack of possession time as a stat (regardless of zone). There are also plenty of flashy players who aren't as productive or "better" than guys like, say, Patrice Bergeron, for example. Furthermore, I challenge you to qualify OR quantify "applying pressure", then tying it back to actual goal scoring/point production in a way that permits individual player comparisons.

You're essentially arguing that:

-Having the puck for a long time is either bad, or equivalent to short bursts
-Long times in the offensive zone are bad ("constant pressure") or in equivalence to short bursts of offensive zone time
-Having the skill to retain the puck for longer periods of time results in less offense.

All 3 are very, very inaccurate statements.

And not at all what I've argued. But in order:

- Overplaying the puck or "holding onto it too long" are definitely issues that continue to frustrate coaches to this day.
- don't know where the F you got that from, as I have mentioned multiple times that a lot of the offensive value of guys like Weber (and Chara) that gets lost on stats guys (because this stat doesn't exist on the publicly accessible internet) comes from their ability to keep the puck in the offensive zone and thus extend possession/increase scoring opportunities
- moving the puck more efficiently as a group results in more scoring opportunities in the long run than relying on one player, particularly a defenseman, to keep the puck on his stick as long as possible trying to make things happen. The classic example to make the point (though an outlier in many senses) is the "Russian 5", who moved the puck around like wizards and scored in bunches, and didn't rely on constant end-to-end rushes from a legend like Fetisov. The key was always get the puck into the hands of talented forwards and provide support/options, instead.

 

[RickP]

Then provide numbers to support it instead of just offering an opinion to counter an opinion. That's all I ask. Put numbers to "drive the play forward better". Because I see a guy who scores more goals AND points than most other defensemen year in, year out, despite not carrying the puck all over the place, so I'd like to see the value of skating around with the puck on your stick quantified in a way that I can actually compare peers.



Same answer goes to you. Offer something more than just opinion to counter an opinion, and we'll get somewhere. Actual data/facts, not just opinions/impressions.

I'm curious to see Weber's production this year. I think he'll get more PP points, playing with Drouin. But overall, I'm curious to see how many points he'll get, now that he will clearly not play with an elite partner (unless there is a trade soon).

Last year was weird. He had an amazing first 8-10 games. Very solid numbers after 20. But after that, his production slowed down drastically. Not even 0.5 points per game for the last 58 games.

He had to play with Emelin most of the time, which didn't help, but even when he played with Markov, he didn't get more points. The pairing was very effective overall though, and Markov was driving the offense, so as a pairing, they were great.

But he probably won't play with someone as great as Markov, offensively, next year, so I don't know what kind of numbers Weber will get.

 

[Constable]

The plan about Weber's partner is however so simple to understand.

Alzner gets some ES only on specific defensive situations with Weber and plays PK with Weber. When paired, these two become the best shutdown pair in the entire league. Huge asset for the team.

Jerabek plays the rest of ES with Weber (about 15-16 min) + PP. As long as Jerabek is not ready, Streit takes those minutes. Yes Streit, who brings about what Markov would have brought, for 700K.

After that, if neither Jerabek or Streit is able to suit in for some reasons, Julien still has Schlemko (a more experienced and sounded version of Beaulieu) who can help for stretch, only if necessary (injuries, bad performances from the others,).

At this time, even a guy like Morrow (another version of Beaulieu) could be ready to help, who knows.

If nothing works as hoped, Bergevin will bring a new dman for the job by January.

There is currently no need to spend big money and trade good assets on a star LD as long as you didn't see if the initial plan works. If it works, it's a genius move that will put the Habs in an amazing situation, you still have your cap space, assets and options to enhance elsewehere during the season.

I reiterate: I don't see any defenseman from the west coast or Carolina here.

Streit brings what Markov would bring without legs, talent, and generally being a 1999 Ford Focus to Markov's 2005 Escalade.

Morrow is like Beaulieu except Beaulieu is an actual NHL level defenseman.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

He had to play with Emelin most of the time, which didn't help,

Understatement among understatements.

but even when he played with Markov, he didn't get more points. The pairing was very effective overall though, and Markov was driving the offense, so as a pairing, they were great.

But he probably won't play with someone as great as Markov, offensively, next year, so I don't know what kind of numbers Weber will get.

We'll see. As long as he's playing with partners at least the equal of Beaulieu and Emelin, he should be just fine.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Same answer goes to you. Offer something more than just opinion to counter an opinion, and we'll get somewhere. Actual data/facts, not just opinions/impressions.

It's been done over and over again. You demand it and when it's produced, dismiss it.

Sorry, but Weber doesn't move the needle on his teammates when he's on the ice. It's an empirical truth that's been shown repeatedly. I'm not going on Corsica to show it again. Esp since you will then just go back to the nonsense you continue to bring up with last years' GA/60....

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

This thread is going to be open for years and years before we find our Man Mountain a suitable partner.

Honestly, it's a pretty bleak situation on that front right now.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

It's been done over and over again. You demand it and when it's produced, dismiss it.

The only thing that has been done over and over again is me prove you wrong about your characterization of Weber as:

- overrated
- only a PP specialist
- having little/no value beyond his shot
- "not even close" to someone like Chara in measurable on-ice impact

etc.

Sorry, but Weber doesn't move the needle on his teammates when he's on the ice. It's an empirical truth that's been shown repeatedly. I'm not going on Corsica to show it again. Esp since you will then just go back to the nonsense you continue to bring up with last years' GA/60....

Sorry, but nothing you've shown from Corsica has said what you want it to, let alone provided anything remotely approaching "empirical truth". You still haven't even realized that if you have two guys with the same GF/60 and/or GA/60 numbers, the guy who plays more and tougher minutes is decidedly performing better, for starters.

"Doesn't move the needle on his teammates", "shown repeatedly", but is used more than any other player on his team, in all situations, by every coach he has played for, with the results to show for it... and you accuse ME of nonsense.

 

[Price is Wright]

Gotta say, much respect to the 4 people who voted Morrow. In one way it's taking the worst odds and banking on it, but on the other... It's not entirely impossible to imagine Julien throwing everything against the wall and actually trying Morrow with Weber, almost to tell Bergevin, "You need to get me a real LD to play with Weber or I'm gonna move to trying forwards with him next."

 

[Captain Mountain]

The plan about Weber's partner is however so simple to understand.

Alzner gets some ES only on specific defensive situations with Weber and plays PK with Weber. When paired, these two become the best shutdown pair in the entire league. Huge asset for the team.

Debatable. Alzner's net front presence is bad:

And breaking cycles is a problem with both on the ice at the same time (lack of mobility, puck movement as a pair). Weber is good enough to cover Alzner's flaws a little, but their effectiveness as a pair really only works in a shorthanded game state.

Jerabek plays the rest of ES with Weber (about 15-16 min) + PP. As long as Jerabek is not ready, Streit takes those minutes. Yes Streit, who brings about what Markov would have brought, for 700K.

Highly optimistic of Jerabek. And comparing Streit and Markov is insane.

After that, if neither Jerabek or Streit is able to suit in for some reasons, Julien still has Schlemko (a more experienced and sounded version of Beaulieu) who can help for stretch, only if necessary (injuries, bad performances from the others,).

Schlemko is a very good bottom pair D. Don't expect more.

At this time, even a guy like Morrow (another version of Beaulieu) could be ready to help, who knows.

If nothing works as hoped, Bergevin will bring a new dman for the job by January.

Morrow has proven significantly less than Beaulieu at the same age, that comparison makes no sense. And it's incredibly difficult to acquire quality D-men.

There is currently no need to spend big money and trade good assets on a star LD as long as you didn't see if the initial plan works. If it works, it's a genius move that will put the Habs in an amazing situation, you still have your cap space, assets and options to enhance elsewehere during the season.

So your:

a) assuming this was the plan all along;
b) taking it on faith and nothing else that management's plan is a good one; and
c) hoping everything works out.

That's fair. But its equally fair to point out the clear problems with Montreal's D-core.

 

[LaP]

Gotta say, much respect to the 4 people who voted Morrow. In one way it's taking the worst odds and banking on it, but on the other... It's not entirely impossible to imagine Julien throwing everything against the wall and actually trying Morrow with Weber, almost to tell Bergevin, "You need to get me a real LD to play with Weber or I'm gonna move to trying forwards with him next."

Well we got to assume Julien had a say about Morrow. I highly doubt MB was "omg Morrow is available that's impossibru i must sign him". Morrow on paper is just one of those many kids who busted with another team. I don't think it's a coincidence MB decided to bet on the one CJ happens to know well. So it's not impossible that Morrow will have his chance.

 

[76]

(mod)
The only thing Markov did better last season than Streit is to produce a bit more at ES. In the end the difference points production is 0.58 PPG vs 0.40 PPG.

Streit got more point on PP with less PP minutes.

Streit is also more mobile and quicker than Markov. Yes he is.

You would pay 5M more to get Markov back instead of Streit?

And you ask me if I'M ok? lol

EDIT: And I said Streit is there until Jerabek is ready. Jerabek is the top option and a very interesting one. I prefer by far betting on this plan than having a old slow Markov at 6M, who isn't even a good fit along Weber.

 

[Wats]

I'm great thank you.
The only thing Markov did better last season than Streit is to produce a bit more at ES. In the end the difference points production is 0.58 PPG vs 0.40 PPG.

Streit got more point on PP with less PP minutes.

Streit is also more mobile and quicker than Markov. Yes he is.

You would pay 5M more to get Markov back instead of Streit?

And you ask me if I'M ok? lol

EDIT: And I said Streit is there until Jerabek is ready. Jerabek is the top option and a very interesting one. I prefer by far betting on this plan than having a old slow Markov at 6M, who isn't even a good fit along Weber.

Why didn't you mention ES minutes and defensive effectiveness?

 

[Belial]

That's fair. But its equally fair to point out the clear problems with Montreal's D-core.

The only problem with Montreal's D-core is you assuming that everybody sucks.

You build your whole argument on assumptions that everybody's going to fail and no one's going to do well.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

The only thing that has been done over and over again is me prove you wrong about your characterization of Weber as:

- overrated
- only a PP specialist
- having little/no value beyond his shot
- "not even close" to someone like Chara in measurable on-ice impact

etc.



Sorry, but nothing you've shown from Corsica has said what you want it to, let alone provided anything remotely approaching "empirical truth". You still haven't even realized that if you have two guys with the same GF/60 and/or GA/60 numbers, the guy who plays more and tougher minutes is decidedly performing better, for starters.

"Doesn't move the needle on his teammates", "shown repeatedly", but is used more than any other player on his team, in all situations, by every coach he has played for, with the results to show for it... and you accuse ME of nonsense.

Tougher minutes is fine and good. Most number ones have tough minutes. And it's been acknowledged that Weber's are esp tough. But it's not enough to explain why there's no discernable difference in his teammates numbers. It's not enough to explain why his advanced numbers are so poor vs elite performers.

Your GA/60 is bunk. Again, you are cherrypicking numbers that make the guy look good rather than being consistent on a position.

 

[CauZuki]

The only problem with Montreal's D-core is you assuming that everybody sucks.

You build your whole argument on assumptions that everybody's going to fail and no one's going to do well.

No his argument is that you have too many players in the wrong seats.

Unproven Morrow to produce as much as Beaulieu.
Alzner playing 1st pairing minutes and succeeding despite his career going in the exact opposite direction.
Streit who can barely crack a depleted Pens line-up all of a sudden is a wash when compared to Markov.
Jerabek hasn't played a day in the NHL yet some are slotting into the first pairing with Weber.
The delusion that Weber is going to somehow age like fine wine when it's more likely that he will age like milk. (Heaven forbid that we mention that it's not likely for Weber to keep at his level (top pairing D worth the 10 million price tag) well into his mid 30's)


What an absolute farce the lengths we go to , in order to believe that our team is in capable hands.

 

[76]

No his argument is that you have too many players in the wrong seats.

Unproven Morrow to produce as much as Beaulieu.
Alzner playing 1st pairing minutes and succeeding despite his career going in the exact opposite direction.
Streit who can barely crack a depleted Pens line-up all of a sudden is a wash when compared to Markov.
Jerabek hasn't played a day in the NHL yet some are slotting into the first pairing with Weber.
The delusion that Weber is going to somehow age like fine wine when it's more likely that he will age like milk. (Heaven forbid that we mention that it's not likely for Weber to keep at his level (top pairing D worth the 10 million price tag) well into his mid 30's)


What an absolute farce the lengths we go to , in order to believe that our team is in capable hands.

At the same period last summer 90% of the fans had Beaulieu paired with Weber, and nobody was crying.

Even if Jerabek never played in the NHL, I would think from what I saw, heard and read on him, that he is aready a much better option than Beaulieu.

Jerabek has not started playing hockey last year you know. He was one of the best dmen in the KHL. From former NHL dman Spacek who knows what is about and others players who played against him in the KHL comments, I don't understand why so many fans can't imagine Jerabek succeed in a top4 role in the NHL. Specially playing 15-16 ES minutes along an elite defensive dman like Shea Weber.

Zaitsev averaged 22:01 TOI/G in his first season in the NHL last season. I don't even ask that much from Jerabek to become a successful plan in his first season with the Habs.

 

[CauZuki]

At the same period last summer 90% of the fans had Beaulieu paired with Weber, and nobody was crying.

Even if Jerabek never played in the NHL, I would think from what I saw, heard and read on him, that he is aready a much better option than Beaulieu.

Jerabek has not started playing hockey last year you know. He was one of the best dmen in the KHL. From former NHL dman Spacek who knows what is about and others players who played against him in the KHL comments, I don't understand why so many fans can't imagine Jerabek succeed in a top4 role in the NHL. Specially playing 15-16 ES minutes along an elite defensive dman like Shea Weber.

Zaitsev averaged 22:01 TOI/G in his first season in the NHL last season. I don't even ask that much from Jerabek to become a successful plan in his first season with the Habs.

Beaulieu has proven 10x more than Jerabek and his career has been trending up whether you want to acknowledge it or not. Beaulieu had his worms but he was in no way as bad as it was reported around here. Whether or not "90% of fans" sloted Beaulieu on the top pair is irrelevant to my argument as even then he had more of a chance to succeed in that role than the unknown Jerabek. The Zaitsev comparison means nothing to me , he is the exception not the rule. The second you start betting on the least probable scenario is when we are in trouble.

Putting way too much faith in the unknown and stats that are in no way comparable. I can easily bring out the many players that played very well in the KHL only to come here and fail miserably. Nigel Dawes is tearing up the KHL but no one is suggesting he can produce anything similar in the NHL.
I'd be more than happy to get a D that can produce in a top 4 role and not skip a beat when transitioning from the KHL , is it likely? I don't think so and my scenario is much more likely to occur than the exceptional one you presented.

 

[Price is Wright]

At the same period last summer 90% of the fans had Beaulieu paired with Weber, and nobody was crying.

Jerabek has not started playing hockey last year you know.

In one paragraph you compare one guy who hasn't played a game in the NHL yet to be the same as a guy who had already played 150 NHL games.

In a later paragraph you try to school a guy in saying Jerabek didn't start playing hockey last year.

 

[Peanut]

Tougher minutes is fine and good. Most number ones have tough minutes. And it's been acknowledged that Weber's are esp tough. But it's not enough to explain why there's no discernable difference in his teammates numbers. It's not enough to explain why his advanced numbers are so poor vs elite performers.

Your GA/60 is bunk. Again, you are cherrypicking numbers that make the guy look good rather than being consistent on a position.

I always thought GA/60 was pretty random year to year and based heavily on goaltending?

 

[76]

In one paragraph you compare one guy who hasn't played a game in the NHL yet to be the same as a guy who had already played 150 NHL games.

In a later paragraph you try to school a guy in saying Jerabek didn't start playing hockey last year.

Fine for you if you believe Jerabek can't be better than the 150 NHL games Beaulieu. I just disagree.

 

[Belial]

No his argument is that you have too many players in the wrong seats.

Unproven Morrow to produce as much as Beaulieu.
Alzner playing 1st pairing minutes and succeeding despite his career going in the exact opposite direction.
Streit who can barely crack a depleted Pens line-up all of a sudden is a wash when compared to Markov.
Jerabek hasn't played a day in the NHL yet some are slotting into the first pairing with Weber.
The delusion that Weber is going to somehow age like fine wine when it's more likely that he will age like milk. (Heaven forbid that we mention that it's not likely for Weber to keep at his level (top pairing D worth the 10 million price tag) well into his mid 30's)


What an absolute farce the lengths we go to , in order to believe that our team is in capable hands.

This is exactly what I'm talking about, everybody's going to fail and we're ****ed!

Alzner's been playing first pair minutes for his entire career but now that Bergevin signed him he's done.

Morrow was used for 22:12 minutes per night on average in Boston during their PO run, in a heavy defensive role with 41 starts in his own end vs only 14 starts in the offensive zone and looked really solid! At the same time, Beaulieu looked like a chicken without a head out there for us...

I just watched Markov playing in the KHL and let me tell you the level of play is high, the game is really physical and the players are skating hard and fast, he looked fine out there but nothing more.

There's nothing delusional in thinking that Jerabek could step in and have a positive impact.

You have plenty of examples lately where players jump from KHL into NHL and don't miss a beat.

Can we start talking about Weber's decline when it actually happens?

 

[CauZuki]

This is exactly what I'm talking about, everybody's going to fail and we're ****ed!

Alzner's been playing first pair minutes for his entire career but now that Bergevin signed him he's done.

Absolutely untrue , 4th last year , 3rd the year before , 4th the year before that.

Morrow was used for 22:12 minutes per night on average in Boston during their PO run, in a heavy defensive role with 41 starts in his own end vs only 14 starts in the offensive zone and looked really solid! At the same time, Beaulieu looked like a chicken without a head out there for us...

If he was so great why did they not re-sign him since they have many young stud D's that are still developing? Also why did he barely play top 6 minutes during the season (during the 1/4 of the season he did play)?

I just watched Markov playing in the KHL and let me tell you the level of play is high, the game is really physical and the players are skating hard and fast, he looked fine out there but nothing more.

Evaluating a player in his first game in the KHL when he has been playing 18 years in the NHL...You must be kidding. (especially when we know first hand the impact he has on the team , shall I bring up the record of Habs play without Markov?)

There's nothing delusional in thinking that Jerabek could step in and have a positive impact.

You have plenty of examples lately where players jump from KHL into NHL and don't miss a beat.

Well see that's not true there are many more cases of players doing poorly then succeeding. It's absolutely delusional to think that it's likely for Jerabek to succeed in a top 2/4 role in a new league that he has 0 experience in. I seriously hope none of you work in finance as negating all the risks and focusing only on the potential is a scary mentality.

Can we start talking about Weber's decline when it actually happens?

Yeah why bother talking about the future on this board (it's not like future is in the name or anything)

Can't you see the irony that you are claiming others are being overly negative (i.e: The sky is falling) vs your overly optimistic view? (i.e: All the best possible scenarios will occur)

 

[Captain Mountain]

I'm curious to see Weber's production this year. I think he'll get more PP points, playing with Drouin. But overall, I'm curious to see how many points he'll get, now that he will clearly not play with an elite partner (unless there is a trade soon).

Last year was weird. He had an amazing first 8-10 games. Very solid numbers after 20. But after that, his production slowed down drastically. Not even 0.5 points per game for the last 58 games.

He had to play with Emelin most of the time, which didn't help, but even when he played with Markov, he didn't get more points. The pairing was very effective overall though, and Markov was driving the offense, so as a pairing, they were great.

But he probably won't play with someone as great as Markov, offensively, next year, so I don't know what kind of numbers Weber will get.

Do people really think Alzner is going to be significantly better than Emelin?

Emelin was better than Alzner last season at defending the blueline.

Emelin's net-front presence was better:

Alzner faced tougher competition, but not significantly tougher (and Emelin got buried more in the D-Zone.

Alzner has a much better track record for actual GF%, but he's also played with much better players than Emelin.

Alzner's a much safer player and clearly a better player, but let's not pretend he's a Hjarmalsson or a Brodin.