LW Quentin Musty - Sudbury Wolves, OHL (2023, 26th, SJS)

[WeThe North]

Because the vast majority of the IIHF U18 team is the NTDP U18 team by default. They will occasionally add players from outside the program but not usually a lot and often times they're adding players for specific roles.

To add players, the NTDP has to 'demote' players, and while they do so, they don't add /demote all the guys they could. They're fairly loyal to the program guys, although not completely.

IMO they should have added Musty as there are a couple of forwards who are still passengers on the team. But I'd imagine they saw Musty as a purely offensive guy and they felt they didn't need more offense with Smith, Perreault, Leonard, Hagens, Moore, Eiserman already on the team. So they went with the more versatile add (Terrance) and kept the guys more suited for 4th line / PK roles (i.e., Guzzo, Slaggert).

All this and you have no clue if he was invited or not. Funny.

 

[William H Bonney]

All this and you have no clue if he was invited or not. Funny.

Do you have any real insight? If you have verifiable information thay Musty was invited and declined, please, feel free to enlighten us. It'd be an extremely rare occurrence. Otherwise, bug off.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Snuggerud was always an extremely smart hockey player.

Not sure where that comes from. It's always been the best part of his game.

Not in my viewings.. he constantly focused solely on the puck and ran into Logan Cooley constantly, when Cooley had the better attack angle on the puck and a better play ahead of him.

 

[luapejrug]

EP put him at 12 in their final rankings

 

[Hollel]

EP put him at 12 in their final rankings

I like that. Seems he’s very underrated around these parts. He’s been so good the 2nd half of the season

 

[WeThreeKings]

I ended up putting Musty at 16.. the frame, the skills and the attitude on ice is all there. Hockey IQ is an issue but players of his athletic and skill profile tend to do something at the NHL level unless they are brain dead like Puljujarvi

 

[Castle8130]

EP put him at 12 in their final rankings

Interesting... I see him as a slower skater, but the size and offensive skill combination is really impressive. If he were a bit faster, I think he'd be in the top 10 conversation

 

[Rabid Ranger]

He reminds me a bit of Ryan Getzlaf. The size, strength, skill combo will be awfully tempting. May go higher than some of the pundits on HF think.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

He reminds me a bit of Ryan Getzlaf. The size, strength, skill combo will be awfully tempting. May go higher than some of the pundits on HF think.

The only knock on Getzlaf heading into the draft that I remember hearing about was skating; he had everything else in spades and he certainly proved it during his career.

I've never seen Musty play but what I've read suggests they are very different players. However, I rarely know what I'm talking about.

 

[bigdog16]

I definitely think he is someone the Rangers would be all over if he is still there

 

[1909]

The only knock on Getzlaf heading into the draft that I remember hearing about was skating; he had everything else in spades and he certainly proved it during his career.

I've never seen Musty play but what I've read suggests they are very different players. However, I rarely know what I'm talking about.

The other knock was his atttitude. He did not impress in the interviews with many teams.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

The only knock on Getzlaf heading into the draft that I remember hearing about was skating; he had everything else in spades and he certainly proved it during his career.

I've never seen Musty play but what I've read suggests they are very different players.

It's not a perfect comparison. Getzlaf was a much more "powerful" presence on the ice. I just think they are similar in the fact they are bigger guys who tend to slow the play down and are excellent playmakers.

 

[majormajor]

I ended up putting Musty at 16.. the frame, the skills and the attitude on ice is all there. Hockey IQ is an issue but players of his athletic and skill profile tend to do something at the NHL level unless they are brain dead like Puljujarvi

I'm curious what IQ issue is supposed to mean with respect to Musty. Like with the puck on his stick I see someone with impressive vision and good play selection. It's his unwillingness to engage around the wall that is the problem, and I can see how that makes him look like he has a poor mental makeup for the pro game.

Musty is an interesting comparison with Will Smith, a guy who some say has the highest IQ, but he has the same problem as Musty where he has a mental off switch when the puck isn't in his team's control. Musty has the much better frame and Smith the best deception, but both are similar to me as brilliant scoring machines with the puck that turn off without it. I don't know why one is high IQ and the other low.

 

[Frk It]

Musty is an interesting comparison with Will Smith, a guy who some say has the highest IQ, but he has the same problem as Musty where he has a mental off switch when the puck isn't in his team's control. Musty has the much better frame and Smith the best deception, but both are similar to me as brilliant scoring machines with the puck that turn off without it. I don't know why one is high IQ and the other low.

I think it's the motor/compete that comes into question with these guys, specifically when the other team has the puck.

And I think Musty is less interested in trying when the other team has the puck than Smith is, although I think both need to improve in that area.

He is going to need a lot of work in that regard, and some teams might not have the patience for it. He is the kind of guy you might see get healthy scratched as a pro, despite being a really talented player.

 

[Hollel]

Something else I’ve noticed with Musty is that a lot of the ‘prospecting models’ are very high on his production output (league + size + late birthday) relative to the rest of the class. He also had mono to start the year.

Which leads me to an interesting comparison…I’m not saying they are identical by any measure…but I’m getting strangely similar vibes to Matthew Knies in his draft year. Larger player who dealt with sickness and big expectations early on, dealt with big learning curve to put his many tools together, big upswing in second half that should be showing big positive indicators but hasn’t convinced a lot of scouts who still fixate on flaws.

I see a similar guy that is on the path now to big things and not this risk/project as some fear. Couple years to marinate and he’ll be a force.

 

[weems]

Something else I’ve noticed with Musty is that a lot of the ‘prospecting models’ are very high on his production output (league + size + late birthday) relative to the rest of the class. He also had mono to start the year.

Which leads me to an interesting comparison…I’m not saying they are identical by any measure…but I’m getting strangely similar vibes to Matthew Knies in his draft year. Larger player who dealt with sickness and big expectations early on, dealt with big learning curve to put his many tools together, big upswing in second half that should be showing big positive indicators but hasn’t convinced a lot of scouts who still fixate on flaws.

I see a similar guy that is on the path now to big things and not this risk/project as some fear. Couple years to marinate and he’ll be a force.

Nice comparison with Knies.
I posted this a few weeks back.

 

[Osakahaus]

First ballot for the Hall of hilarious surnames, but is he expected to be a late 1st rounder? I think someone like Carolina or Seattle takes him

 

[Hollel]

Nice comparison with Knies.
I posted this a few weeks back.

View attachment 715911

Great minds!!

 

[Dominance]

The comparison to Michael Dal Colle is pretty compelling. Less than 10 years ago, Musty would be seen as a slam-dunk top-10 pick; now, his set of strengths and flaws has been present in enough flops that it’s probably near even odds he is taken in the first round. But while that bust potential is now widely seen, the boom potential is also there in spades.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I'm curious what IQ issue is supposed to mean with respect to Musty. Like with the puck on his stick I see someone with impressive vision and good play selection. It's his unwillingness to engage around the wall that is the problem, and I can see how that makes him look like he has a poor mental makeup for the pro game.

Musty is an interesting comparison with Will Smith, a guy who some say has the highest IQ, but he has the same problem as Musty where he has a mental off switch when the puck isn't in his team's control. Musty has the much better frame and Smith the best deception, but both are similar to me as brilliant scoring machines with the puck that turn off without it. I don't know why one is high IQ and the other low.

See that's where I have the problem, when the puck is on his stick, he can do things against junior players because he's talented but a lot of things he does, there are better options available to him and he will choose the high skill play every time even though the success rate will go less and less as he goes up ranks.

I wouldn't say Smith turns off without the puck, I think that is getting beat into the ground, he had free license in the NTDP to fly the zone early. But in the U18s, I didn't see any of those problems. He came back, he's a stick first defender, very adept at stealing pucks, and he would go to the front of the net and score from in tight.

Smith's high IQ comes from the fact that everything he does has a purpose. He is always deceiving and manipulating, he is reading the entire defense, and making plays off of it and the motion of his team. You don't see that same level of orchestration with Musty, he is only thinking about the play directly ahead of him.

 

[Hollel]

The comparison to Michael Dal Colle is pretty compelling. Less than 10 years ago, Musty would be seen as a slam-dunk top-10 pick; now, his set of strengths and flaws has been present in enough flops that it’s probably near even odds he is taken in the first round. But while that bust potential is now widely seen, the boom potential is also there in spades.

I just don’t see why the failure of Dal Colle has much to do with Musty. I can find endless examples of player archetypes for why you shouldn’t draft player X, Y or Z. If we really want to break down some parts of their games, Musty is a better skater at the same age, and far and away the better play maker and passer. His physical engagement + skating need to and should hopefully continue to develop, but again are we saying it can’t or won’t because Dal Colle got drafted once? And if it doesn’t are we suggesting that Musty is simply incapable of still finding a way to be an effective NHLer?

 

[Dominance]

I just don’t see why the failure of Dal Colle has much to do with Musty. I can find endless examples of player archetypes for why you shouldn’t draft player X, Y or Z. If we really want to break down some parts of their games, Musty is a better skater at the same age, and far and away the better play maker and passer. His physical engagement + skating need to and should hopefully continue to develop, but again are we saying it can’t or won’t because Dal Colle got drafted once? And if it doesn’t are we suggesting that Musty is simply incapable of still finding a way to be an effective NHLer?

I’m impressed by how you completely missed the point of my post

 

[Hollel]

I’m impressed by how you completely missed the point of my post

Lol how so? I get that you aren’t saying you dislike Musty, I just disagree with saying the comparison to Dal Colle is compelling and that previous flops are why he is being lowered on draft rankings. The reason Musty isn’t a top 10 lock is not because of Dal Cole or similar types… or it not being 10 years earlier, it’s because the strength of the draft and early season struggles. Guarantee in a weaker year the hype is rising fast. And I presented my thoughts on why his profile is IMO more bust proof than MDC or “similar players”. But okay.

 

[djscooter]

See that's where I have the problem, when the puck is on his stick, he can do things against junior players because he's talented but a lot of things he does, there are better options available to him and he will choose the high skill play every time even though the success rate will go less and less as he goes up ranks.

I wouldn't say Smith turns off without the puck, I think that is getting beat into the ground, he had free license in the NTDP to fly the zone early. But in the U18s, I didn't see any of those problems. He came back, he's a stick first defender, very adept at stealing pucks, and he would go to the front of the net and score from in tight.

Smith's high IQ comes from the fact that everything he does has a purpose. He is always deceiving and manipulating, he is reading the entire defense, and making plays off of it and the motion of his team. You don't see that same level of orchestration with Musty, he is only thinking about the play directly ahead of him.

Curious how much you've seen Musty play. So many of the words you use to describe Smith can be used to describe Musty as well. Saying Musty is only thinking about the play directly ahead of him could not be more wrong this year. He was the best playmaker on the team often setting up one and two-touch plays to open up space for teammates.

His skating is definitely a weakness, but he 100% turned into a takeaway machine this year, there's lots of video to back it up as well. Is he a perfect prospect? Definitely not, but I'd say he's easily a mid-first-round talent with a ton of upside if he can improve his skating a bit and get a bit more consistency to his defensive zone game. I can't compare him to Smith as I've only seen him play a handful of games, but from what I've seen, Smith is definitely the better prospect, but I don't think anyone is arguing otherwise, just think you're a bit off the trail with your assessment of Mustys game.

 

[UpsideHockey]

Our profile on Q at Upside Hockey:

23. Quentin Musty​

"Quentin Musty. I love this kid, and I want you to as well. 78 points in 53 games for the middling Sudbury Wolves, who drafted the American-born LW first overall in the 2021 Priority Draft. Pro-rated to 65 games, would give him 95 points. 78.6% of his points came at 5 vs 5. Musty is a supremely skilled offensive player, but some aspects of his play in the other 2 zones have scouts very divided. Musty is listed at 6'2" (some say 6'3"), and plays a power-forward style- he doesn't often throw big hits, but he bulls his way around the ice, using his size and strength to impose his will, be it along the boards, or attacking the net. Coming in to the year, Musty was known as a goal-scorer, with an NHL-calibre wrister and one-timer that he needs no time or space to get off, but he's added a top-tier playmaking dimension to his repertoire that rivals most of his contemporaries in this draft. Makes high quality plays off the rush. He has the gift of finding the open space in any situation, for shots, passes through traffic, or a lane to maneuver, and has a deft arsenal of stick moves, toe drags, jukes, dekes and fakes to get around in traffic. Supreme puck skills, puck protection, and stickhandling. Here's where it gets muddy. Musty is knocked in most scouting reports for his off-puck game, some aspects of his defense, and often his effort and engagement when not in the offensive zone. Much of his problem is that while he possesses a good straight-away power stride, his lateral movement is very lacking. He loses power in his crossovers, and his acceleration needs work. I believe that due to this, he tries to avoid overextending himself. It can hurt him when defending the rush, and he sometimes has to defer to teammates to do some of the dirty work. Many believe that if he can fix his speed, he will be an imposing force who will dominate games with his playmaking and power game, and some have questioned his hockey sense. I think he will be considered a steal in a few years."

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