Lottery or Playoffs?

[Ladyfan]

They aren't going to win the draft lottery if they do miss the playoffs.

Give me the extra hockey

^this

 

[Gee Wally]

Boy, has this place gone to ****.

 

[JAD]

Let me see if I understand - your one of 30 people chosen by your boss at work from which the boss is going to choose 16 people to be promoted to varying levels with one person chosen to be VP from the group, and all you have to do is show up and do your best work.

But you would rather give your 2 week notice because you bought a lottery ticket and if you win you would be set for life.

Yeah that makes sense.

I would rather take my chances on the Bruins in the playoffs then not .

 

[Trap Jesus]

1% chance? No thanks, this current edition of the Bruins has more than a 1% chance of winning the Cup if they make the playoffs.

 

[RedBruin]

If you make it to the playoffs anything can happen, as LA has proved, so would you give up a shot at the payoffs if you knew you had a chance at drafting McDavid?

If it's like a 50% chance at McD then yes. If it's the chance you normally get when you finish 9th in your conference then hell no, I'd much rather have a shot in the playoffs.

 

[dredeye]

Although I'd hate to miss the post season it would be epic to win the draft lottery after getting bumped from the post season. The conspiracy theorists in regards to the bruins falsely perceived preferential treatment would lose their minds.

 

[Ten Thousand Hours]

If it's like a 50% chance at McD then yes. If it's the chance you normally get when you finish 9th in your conference then hell no, I'd much rather have a shot in the playoffs.

Sure. But nobody has a 50% chance at McDavid.

 

[RedBruin]

Sure. But nobody has a 50% chance at McDavid.

I know. I took the question completely hypothetical. Knowing that you have like a 1% chance finishing 9th I obviously prefer the playoffs.

 

[Meusoc]

The Bruins are in the lower half of the league and are only going lower. Time to regroup, and the draft is the best way.

 

[Meusoc]

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/#/

 

[JoeIsAStud]

Embarrassing that we have to have a thread about the .0001% chance of getting McDavid. That shouldn't be on anyone's radar.

Embarrassing would be the match that comes up with 0.0001% chance of winning the lottery.

The simplest estimator would have Boston as having a 0.46% chance of getting the # , if you accept the fact that Boston has a 54% chance of making the playoffs.

if you factor in possibility that Boston could still finish anywhere from 10 pick backward, then the odds increase a good bit, and are calculable, I'm do lazy to do the math, but I suspect the current odds of Boston getting the #1 pick are around 1%

 

[Rubber Biscuit]

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/#/

I ran it 100 times. LA at 1% didn't win it once.

edit- I ran it 145 times before they won

 

[ashnathan]

That is disturbing

Okay, if we pick second (not gonna happen) and McDavid is gone, I say we #BoycottEichel

 

[TheReal13Linseman]

If you're a patient investor, interested in long term gain (i.e., the long term interest of the team) rather than the speculative chance at a short term kill (i.e., the short term selfish interest of the gambling fan), then you clearly would opt for the draft.

This team has a TON of problems that need solving; might as well do our best to maximize our potential to score talent in this strong draft.

Clearly, I prefer the Warren Buffett approach.

 

[ashnathan]

ps i just ran the lottery 5 times

Flordia
Leafs
Leafs
Leafs
Avs

 

[Trap Jesus]

ps i just ran the lottery 5 times

Flordia
Leafs
Leafs
Leafs
Avs

This would be worse than the Oilers.

 

[LouJersey]

ps i just ran the lottery 5 times

Flordia
Leafs
Leafs
Leafs
Avs

Leafs
Yotes
Leafs
Sabres
Flyers

 

[LouJersey]

Would love the Devils to win it...I'd buy some sort of season ticket package no doubt.

 

[Caper Bruins fan]

So if we win tomorrow,are we only two points behind Detroit ?

 

[PIMsCup]

A toast to the Red Wings passing the torch: May the Bruins make the playoffs for a year of years.

This generation of Boston fans require nothing less.

 

[Lobster57]

You have run the simulator 300 times.

Buffalo Sabres (20%)
Wins: 55
Win %: 18.3%

Edmonton Oilers (11.5%)
Wins: 40
Win %: 13.3%

Toronto Maple Leafs (9.5)
Wins: 36
Win %: 12%

Arizona Coyotes (13.5%)
Wins: 35
Win %: 11.7%

Carolina Hurricanes (8.5%)
Wins: 26
Win %: 8.7%

Columbus Blue Jackets (7.5%)
Wins: 23
Win %: 7.7%

Philadelphia Flyers (6.5%)
Wins: 19
Win %: 6.3%

Dallas Stars (5.0%)
Wins: 15
Win %: 5%

New Jersey Devils (5.5%)
Wins: 14
Win %: 4.7%

Florida Panthers (3.5%)
Wins: 11
Win %: 3.7%

Colorado Avalanche (2.5%)
Wins: 10
Win %: 3.3%

Ottawa Senators (2.0%)
Wins: 9
Win %: 3%

San Jose Sharks (3.0%)
Wins: 6
Win %: 2%

Los Angeles Kings (1.0%)
Wins: 1
Win %: 0.3%

 

[LouJersey]

Ran it 100 times.

Kings never won.

Sabres 16 times...Leafs 14 times...

So for all you that would rather miss for a one percent chance , how about NOT making the playoffs AND the Leafs winning McDavid?

 

[LouJersey]

You have run the simulator 300 times.

Buffalo Sabres (20%)
Wins: 55
Win %: 18.3%

Edmonton Oilers (11.5%)
Wins: 40
Win %: 13.3%

Toronto Maple Leafs (9.5)
Wins: 36
Win %: 12%

Arizona Coyotes (13.5%)
Wins: 35
Win %: 11.7%

Carolina Hurricanes (8.5%)
Wins: 26
Win %: 8.7%

Columbus Blue Jackets (7.5%)
Wins: 23
Win %: 7.7%

Philadelphia Flyers (6.5%)
Wins: 19
Win %: 6.3%

Dallas Stars (5.0%)
Wins: 15
Win %: 5%

New Jersey Devils (5.5%)
Wins: 14
Win %: 4.7%

Florida Panthers (3.5%)
Wins: 11
Win %: 3.7%

Colorado Avalanche (2.5%)
Wins: 10
Win %: 3.3%

Ottawa Senators (2.0%)
Wins: 9
Win %: 3%

San Jose Sharks (3.0%)
Wins: 6
Win %: 2%

Los Angeles Kings (1.0%)
Wins: 1
Win %: 0.3%

So cool. The Devils won it 9 times in my 100 simulator runs.

 

[Lobster57]

So cool. The Devils won it 9 times in my 100 simulator runs.

I'd run it about 150 times before Buffalo was ahead of the Oilers. The answer to the question is; get in the playoffs. There are less busts at the top of the draft than there used to be, and i really doubt McDavid busts, but he may not become a SUPERstar.

 

[Odie]

I'd rather make the playoffs 100% of the time.