Looking ahead to the off-season

[Fixed to Ruin]

This thread already 3 games into the season.

have a bit more faith.

 

[Messrules11]

What a strange thing to say when he has scored 69 and 61 in his 2 most recent seasons. Additionally the 61 point season was shortened by 17 games by COVID, so he likely scored around 70-75 last year. Also, his PPG career pro-rates to exactly 60.25 points/82 GP. What a very, very weird number to pick to "prove a point", when you are wrong in so many ways.

I guess my point was that this team needs defence, Nuges ask is going to be too high for my liking. Deal him by the deadline, add if we have to and get some defensive holes fixed...

Or pay him 7+, remain in cap hell and screw defence.

 

[780il]

Throw money at Dougie. That’s all.

 

[jukon]

Nuge won't cost more than $7M. His figure definitely starts with a six.

 

[Ritchie Valens]

I've climbed aboard the Raanta train. Run him 1A/1B with Kosko next season, and/or the remaining of this one if we can get a trade done there.

Woah, buddy. He is more injury prone than Smith. Best you step off that train at the next stop.

 

[yukoner88]

Woah, buddy. He is more injury prone than Smith. Best you step off that train at the next stop.

I'm not there for the long haul, just short term for the next season n a half until Koskinen becomes a ufa (not that I think he's a huge issue, but it'll be easier to get a long term starter with that contract off the books).

 

[Aerchon]

That d core looks like they'd get caved in against good teams

For better or worse we have hitched our wagon to Nurse as our #1. He is getting 8+ on his next contract if.... if he even stays. Holland walked him to UFA status. A move as stupid as any I have saw a GM make.

Bear hopefully can progress more still and all our young D as well.

We will add a plug or two of course but big game defense hunting seems a fools errand.

Doughty is playing like a pile of crap at 11 mill. I'd rather have Nurse than OEL on his contract. Barrie is too feeble in his own end to even consider signing Long term. Trade or UFA great defense hunting is next to impossible.

That leaves development from within. Sucks but it is what it is.

 

[Weitz]

For better or worse we have hitched our wagon to Nurse as our #1. He is getting 8+ on his next contract if.... if he even stays. Holland walked him to UFA status. A move as stupid as any I have saw a GM make.

Bear hopefully can progress more still and all our young D as well.

We will add a plug or two of course but big game defense hunting seems a fools errand.

Doughty is playing like a pile of crap at 11 mill. I'd rather have Nurse than OEL on his contract. Barrie is too feeble in his own end to even consider signing Long term. Trade or UFA great defense hunting is next to impossible.

That leaves development from within. Sucks but it is what it is.

if we pay nurse 8 might as well pack it in now. That would be a terrible terrible deal.

 

[Canovin]

This is a short season. No reason to buy out Neal this year. Maybe next year if there's no takers.

 

[Oilers in NS]

if we pay nurse 8 might as well pack it in now. That would be a terrible terrible deal.

Ain’t happening. Not in this NHL COVID-19 economy

 

[Drivesaitl]

What a strange thing to say when he has scored 69 and 61 in his 2 most recent seasons. Additionally the 61 point season was shortened by 17 games by COVID, so he likely scored around 70-75 last year. Also, his PPG career pro-rates to exactly 60.25 points/82 GP. What a very, very weird number to pick to "prove a point", when you are wrong in so many ways.

Proration of a player that has also missed ample games due to injuries, and much of who's point totals are driven by other far superior players.

In the last two seasons alone 50 of RNH pts are on the PP and a whole lot of those being 2nd assists or pretty nothing plays while being glued on to one of the best PP's in the world that is great not due to him..

RNH rote play, more often than any other PP play, is a little backwards pass to Klefbom. With some of these even getting picked for opponent breakaways because teams have seen nuge do this butter vanilla play so often. His other patented play is being absolutely wide open on a PP, having all kinds of time, walking into a shot, and still having a poor shooting % on PP. His contribution in the last game was getting a perfect feed from Drai, flubbing a wide open net tap in, instead loses the puck clean on what should have been a goal, and Habs move the puck and rush up ice to put the game out of reach. Nuge with his usual aw shucks expression going to the bench but couldn't give a shit. That one failure was a two goal swing. Nor did Nuge do anything in the game subsequently to even exhibit he felt guilty letting the team down.

Indeed Nuge only has 296EV pts in his entire damn career, and he's playing his 10th season. More than 1/3 of his career pts are on the PP.

Without being on the allstar PP of the Oilers he's seeing 40some pts per season. Some stud.

 

[GOilers88]

Little early and baseless to be getting down about Nurse's next 8 million dollar contract, no?

This is the kind of stuff I just don't understand. It's like getting worked up about a hurricane blowing through because it got a little cloudy out...

 

[McJadeddog]

I guess my point was that this team needs defence, Nuges ask is going to be too high for my liking. Deal him by the deadline, add if we have to and get some defensive holes fixed...

Or pay him 7+, remain in cap hell and screw defence.

I agree with you if your point is that this team needs defensive help more than it does winger help. If signing RNH prevents us from improving our defence, then I would agree that we don't sign him. However, our cap is in a really good spot next year (assuming a Neal buyout), so I think we can actually do both things (sign RNH and improve defence). When you consider that Bouchard, Broberg, and Samorukov are all bubbling under and will all be cheap for the next 3-4 years, I think that opinion is warranted.

I think the bigger problem though is that we won't be able to actually fix the defence unless we trade for it. I agree that Hamilton is very unlikely to sign here, and there isn't another D on the market next year that can be thought of as a 1st pairing guy. So that leaves us with trade options only. We don't have a plethora of forwards to offer up in a trade. Our best forward prospect is likely Holloway, and that isn't saying much, even though I really like the player. What does Holloway + Broberg get you back? It doesn't land you a top-pairing guy unfortunately. I think we are going to have to hope for the all-too-elusive "growth from within" to fix our defence. I don't think this will happen either, as we don't have a single player that looks like he'll be a top-pairing D in the McDrai years (next 5 years). So we have to hope somebody dramatically improves.

The other option is to keep our powder dry for the 2022 off-season, where maybe Seth Jones shakes loose. We have his brother on our team, and Columbus doesn't look like world-beaters. I think there isn't a great chance of that occurring either to be honest, but there is a bigger chance of that occurring than Hamilton leaving a good team.

 

[McJadeddog]

Proration of a player that has also missed ample games due to injuries, and much of who's point totals are driven by other far superior players.

In the last two seasons alone 50 of RNH pts are on the PP and a whole lot of those being 2nd assists or pretty nothing plays while being glued on to one of the best PP's in the world that is great not due to him..

RNH rote play, more often than any other PP play, is a little backwards pass to Klefbom. With some of these even getting picked for opponent breakaways because teams have seen nuge do this butter vanilla play so often. His other patented play is being absolutely wide open on a PP, having all kinds of time, walking into a shot, and still having a poor shooting % on PP. His contribution in the last game was getting a perfect feed from Drai, flubbing a wide open net tap in, instead loses the puck clean on what should have been a goal, and Habs move the puck and rush up ice to put the game out of reach. Nuge with his usual aw shucks expression going to the bench but couldn't give a shit. That one failure was a two goal swing. Nor did Nuge do anything in the game subsequently to even exhibit he felt guilty letting the team down.

Indeed Nuge only has 296EV pts in his entire damn career, and he's playing his 10th season. More than 1/3 of his career pts are on the PP.

Without being on the allstar PP of the Oilers he's seeing 40some pts per season. Some stud.

I quickly grabbed RNH's P/60 at ES over the past most recent 3 seasons. For all players in the league, he was 94th. Of the 3 forwards in front of RNH and the 3 forwards behind him that signed their current deals as UFA players, those players averaged $6.575 M/year. I did the same thing on the PP. RNH was 46th in the league on the PP. Using the same math, $6.1625 M/year was the average.

So there appears to be a slight discount for players that are PP specialists maybe? This is small sample size, but it gives a ballpark for expectations.

 

[Aerchon]

if we pay nurse 8 might as well pack it in now. That would be a terrible terrible deal.

Little early and baseless to be getting down about Nurse's next 8 million dollar contract, no?

This is the kind of stuff I just don't understand. It's like getting worked up about a hurricane blowing through because it got a little cloudy out...

We most likely have lost Klefbom permanently. You can see the results on the ice and we have a ton of historical evidence how bad this team fairs without him. Now imagine losing Nurse on top of that...

Nurse, while an underperforming top 3 defender imo, manages to get 5.6 plus a free walk to UFA status. What little "leverage" Holland may have had is gone and then some. OEL got locked up at 8.25 per as a UFA... I think there are arguments Nurse is closer to him than any of us care to admit. I was being hyperbolic at 8... I hope... but we need to keep his next gross contract in perspective.

The point... is that Nurse holds all the cards and dislike him for not developing into a legit Uber top pairing defenseman will not stop him from holding Holland over a barrel. Not signing Nurse is not an option either barring some fantastic UFAs.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I quickly grabbed RNH's P/60 at ES over the past most recent 3 seasons. For all players in the league, he was 94th. Of the 3 forwards in front of RNH and the 3 forwards behind him that signed their current deals as UFA players, those players averaged $6.575 M/year. I did the same thing on the PP. RNH was 46th in the league on the PP. Using the same math, $6.1625 M/year was the average.

So there appears to be a slight discount for players that are PP specialists maybe? This is small sample size, but it gives a ballpark for expectations.

For those seasons the vast majority of his GP are with the two best players in hockey. Whether that be getting them in PP, or EV.

How many of the top 100EV scorers get to play with either McD, or Drai, or both almost exclusively?

You can't look at his points in isolation and not also consider that he doesn't drive the vast majority of those results, and that he's just a complimentary player. Nuge could have been a perennial star in this league. He self settled for less. it kind of annoys me. Also that of all of Hall, Eberle, he's the one left, the only one that didn't drive offense.

look at a guy like Philip Danault. has exactly the same number of EV pts last 3 seasons and is making half of what Nuge is making. At this point he's probably an equal or better player, harder to play against.

look at David Perron, a better winger (thats what we use Nuge for) stonger, intense, great on forecheck, faster, can play a harder game and put up more goals. We gave him up for no good reason, hes a better player than nuge, and making 4M

 

[Aerchon]

For those seasons the vast majority of his GP are with the two best players in hockey. Whether that be getting them in PP, or EV.

How many of the top 100EV scorers get to play with either McD, or Drai, or both almost exclusively?

You can't look at his points in isolation and not also consider that he doesn't drive the vast majority of those results, and that he's just a complimentary player. Nuge could have been a perennial star in this league. He self settled for less. it kind of annoys me. Also that of all of Hall, Eberle, he's the one left, the only one that didn't drive offense.

He is also the only one of those three that seem to grasp defense. He is the only center. The only PKer. And also out of those three the only one to have chemistry with McDavid.

I agree RNH should have been a star. Between watching him closely in junior and his rookie year... I am shocked he didn't develop into much more of an offensive threat than he is. I do think, this is nothing but speculation, he stunted his own growth with poor offseason training and maybe lower self expectations.

But for winning hockey games. I still take RNH over Hall or Eberle 7 days a week and twice on Sunday.

 

[Ritchie Valens]

I'm not there for the long haul, just short term for the next season n a half until Koskinen becomes a ufa (not that I think he's a huge issue, but it'll be easier to get a long term starter with that contract off the books).

I didn't know this before hand but after checking, Raanta is a UFA after this season as well. Looking at the list, there are some good goalies potentially coming available for free this offseason.

Tuuka Rask (highly doubtful he'd sign in Edmonton)
Fred Andersen
Gruebauer
Halak...he's getting older but I'd take him as a solid reduced action 1B/backup

Gruebauer would be my target. He's 29, is pretty decent and I'm sure having Draisaitl and posssibly Kahun as teammates would be attractive to him.

 

[yukoner88]

We most likely have lost Klefbom permanently. You can see the results on the ice and we have a ton of historical evidence how bad this team fairs without him. Now imagine losing Nurse on top of that...

Nurse, while an underperforming top 3 defender imo, manages to get 5.6 plus a free walk to UFA status. What little "leverage" Holland may have had is gone and then some. OEL got locked up at 8.25 per as a UFA... I think there are arguments Nurse is closer to him than any of us care to admit. I was being hyperbolic at 8... I hope... but we need to keep his next gross contract in perspective.

The point... is that Nurse holds all the cards and dislike him for not developing into a legit Uber top pairing defenseman will not stop him from holding Holland over a barrel. Not signing Nurse is not an option either barring some fantastic UFAs.

Nurse doesn't hold nothing and is no where near the level of Klefbom, let alone OEL.

Just because Nurse is currently the unofficial #1 dman on this roster does it mean he's getting that kind of raise. If he doesn't smarten up soon, he won't get any raise at all. In fact if Nurse goes to UFA with out a contract, he's risking a pay cut more than anything with the flat cap.

So no, Nurse doesn't hold squat when it comes to negotiating a new deal

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Why are we talking about the off season after Game 1 of the regular season?

 

[McJadeddog]

He is also the only one of those three that seem to grasp defense. He is the only center. The only PKer. And also out of those three the only one to have chemistry with McDavid.

I agree RNH should have been a star. Between watching him closely in junior and his rookie year... I am shocked he didn't develop into much more of an offensive threat than he is. I do think, this is nothing but speculation, he stunted his own growth with poor offseason training and maybe lower self expectations.

But for winning hockey games. I still take RNH over Hall or Eberle 7 days a week and twice on Sunday.

Yeah, I couldn't agree with this more. I'm a huge fan of Hall, but RNH wins you more games than Hall does (assuming same salary).

RNH is roughly a $6-7 M player for his production/age/contract status/usage on the team/etc. You can like that or not, but that is what the market is going to pay him. If you think the team should move on from him at that price point, that is fine, everybody is entitled to their opinion. But who do we replace him with that will produce more, but at a lower cost?

 

[yukoner88]

I didn't know this before hand but after checking, Raanta is a UFA after this season as well. Looking at the list, there are some good goalies potentially coming available for free this offseason.

Tuuka Rask (highly doubtful he'd sign in Edmonton)
Fred Andersen
Gruebauer
Halak...he's getting older but I'd take him as a solid reduced action 1B/backup

Gruebauer would be my target. He's 29, is pretty decent and I'm sure having Draisaitl and posssibly Kahun as teammates would be attractive to him.

Yeah I looked at that list last night. I highly doubt Colorado lets Grubauer walk. Andersen more than likely gets re-signed as well.

That brings us down to Raanta and Halak.

That's why I brought up that now might be the time to gamble on Raanta for the season. He won't command a large price ticket, and the ufa market looks pretty thin after this season, and we typically don't do well with signing ufa goalies traditionally.

 

[McJadeddog]

Why are we talking about the off season after Game 1 of the regular season?

I think because people are smart enough to know that this team isn't winning anything this year. They might make the playoffs, sure, but that is about it.

 

[GOilers88]

We most likely have lost Klefbom permanently. You can see the results on the ice and we have a ton of historical evidence how bad this team fairs without him. Now imagine losing Nurse on top of that...

Nurse, while an underperforming top 3 defender imo, manages to get 5.6 plus a free walk to UFA status. What little "leverage" Holland may have had is gone and then some. OEL got locked up at 8.25 per as a UFA... I think there are arguments Nurse is closer to him than any of us care to admit. I was being hyperbolic at 8... I hope... but we need to keep his next gross contract in perspective.

The point... is that Nurse holds all the cards and dislike him for not developing into a legit Uber top pairing defenseman will not stop him from holding Holland over a barrel. Not signing Nurse is not an option either barring some fantastic UFAs.

My point was that I think people spend too much time worrying about what MIGHT happen, and end up coming to crazy, long term conclusions based on what is essentially nothing at all.

You can already see it. People basically ready to move on from two of our core pieces in Nurse and RNH because they assume the asks are going to astronomical, and then proceed to make elaborate plans based on nothing but a factless opinion.

Especially in a covid cap that has seen lots of good players dealt far less money, I don't know how people are arriving at conclusions that price some of our better players out of town because they think our guys are going to be the ones that cash in huge.

Basically I agree that 8 is too much for Nurse, and anything over 7 is too much for Nuge, but if these guys end up having a good enough season to warrant raises I think we need to be less willing to toss them aside for the myriad of options that would apparently be available. Because if the last 15 years have shown us anything it's that the Edmonton Oilers have no problem attracting top end talent without massively overpaying for it.

Could potentially clear 22 million off the roster for next year with Neal possibly being bought out and Klef possibly LTIRing. Nurse is still under contract for another year at 5.6 and if he hasn't proven by the end of this year he's worth a 2.4 million dollar raise he likely won't do it next year. Even giving RNH 7 still leaves you with 11 million to spread out without actually making any real moves.

We have to see how Kahun pans out, and potentially lock up or bridge Yamo which shouldn't be overly expensive. I don't feel like resigning both guys is a problem so long as a couple of Bouchard/Broberg and Samorukov work out in a year or two. If none of the prospects have played their way onto the team by then we have far bigger problems than Nuge and or Nurse making 1-1.5 more than they should.

 

[barry halls]

I think this team really lacks confidence. They keep telling themselves and the press that they're a good team but I don't think they really believe it. Just watch how every time they score you can expect a fire drill in their own end for the next two minutes. They bend and allow huge pushbacks because they are an insecure group mentally. And why wouldn't they be? The core has had more failure than success. They could use some good veteran leadership.