Prospect Info: Logan Stanley - Part III

[DeepFrickinValue]

I'm guessing because he was playing junior in Ontario, not on the farm team in Winnipeg with Jets staff. Likely they told him what they wanted him to improve on, but that is much different than having True North staff working with you everyday to make the changes.

Always figured trainers would be quite close to the junior picks. Visit a few times a year make sure players are following what they are supposed to.

Value of a First round pick is probably a few million dollars, I am sure you spend a few pennies to ensure they are Developing properly

 

[ps241]

TBL have maybe been better - and mostly in the later rounds where it is just pure chance - but, whatever works.

Lightning are quirky and at some point I will dig in more to explain but their drafting results confuse me.

 

[Huffer]

It's definitely discouraging to see Cholowski doing so well. We could have had him with our pick and left Stanley for Detroit.

Cholowski was my pick when we did our poll. I hope Stanley can develop, but watching Cholowski move out there really hurt. I'd play Cholowski right now over every LHD we have besides Morrissey.

 

[White Out 902]

This pick has Chevy thinking hes a genius written all over it.

Such an obvious reach and blunder in the first round, a real shame.

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

Cholowski and Clague would solve our concerns on Ld

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This pick has Chevy thinking hes a genius written all over it.

Such an obvious reach and blunder in the first round, a real shame.

I wouldn't put it that way. To me it has all the earmarks of Chevy allowing himself to be talked into something.

In the end the decision is made by a committee and we will probably never know who pushed for Stanley. That doesn't entirely let Chevy off the hook. The final decision is his but he is influenced by the others. They made the very common mistake of drafting size. It happens. Just hope they have learned.

 

[Daximus]

I wouldn't put it that way. To me it has all the earmarks of Chevy allowing himself to be talked into something.

In the end the decision is made by a committee and we will probably never know who pushed for Stanley. That doesn't entirely let Chevy off the hook. The final decision is his but he is influenced by the others. They made the very common mistake of drafting size. It happens. Just hope they have learned.

They've made the mistake before. I'd imagine it was the same group that pushed for Coburn and Valabik. I remember Garret saying there was a pretty big divide among the Jets scouts about Stanley. Chevy eventually landed on the For Stanley side rather then the against Stanley side. And here we are. Hopefully this will be their final lesson in the size over skill debate. 3rd times the charm I suppose.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

They've made the mistake before. I'd imagine it was the same group that pushed for Coburn and Valabik. I remember Garret saying there was a pretty big divide among the Jets scouts about Stanley. Chevy eventually landed on the For Stanley side rather then the against Stanley side. And here we are. Hopefully this will be their final lesson in the size over skill debate. 3rd times the charm I suppose.

Nothing wrong with size. I like players who can dominate physically or who just don't need to worry about being pushed around - but the skill has to be there first. I don't think you should expect to be able to add skill to a big man. It may happen once in a while but it is the exception, not the rule.

 

[Daximus]

Nothing wrong with size. I like players who can dominate physically or who just don't need to worry about being pushed around - but the skill has to be there first. I don't think you should expect to be able to add skill to a big man. It may happen once in a while but it is the exception, not the rule.

Yeah I mean a guy like Wheeler is a good example of being a big guy with obvious skill that needed to unlock it. I'm not opposed to drafting for size but I expect a certain level of production right off the bat if we are doing it in the 1st round.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah I mean a guy like Wheeler is a good example of being a big guy with obvious skill that needed to unlock it. I'm not opposed to drafting for size but I expect a certain level of production right off the bat if we are doing it in the 1st round.

If the big guy is already = to the smaller guy in skill, I would take the bigger guy. But how often does that happen? It is the same as avoiding high skill players because they are small. How many bargain players have been picked in the 5th rd because they were 'only' 5'10?

I think the key at both ends of the size range is skating. look at speed and quickness. If you have to say that the player is quick/fast for his size, think twice. The opposite is probably true for the small guys. If you say he is slow, lacks quickness for his size, you should also think twice. While I'm on the subject, skating speed and quickness are not the same thing. IMO, the quickness is more important than speed. Quick feet & hands/reflexes can make up for a lot of slow.

A guy like Stanley can look slow but if he has that quickness he can still be good. That's harder to have when everything is heavier and has to move farther though.

 

[Daximus]

If the big guy is already = to the smaller guy in skill, I would take the bigger guy. But how often does that happen? It is the same as avoiding high skill players because they are small. How many bargain players have been picked in the 5th rd because they were 'only' 5'10?

I think the key at both ends of the size range is skating. look at speed and quickness. If you have to say that the player is quick/fast for his size, think twice. The opposite is probably true for the small guys. If you say he is slow, lacks quickness for his size, you should also think twice. While I'm on the subject, skating speed and quickness are not the same thing. IMO, the quickness is more important than speed. Quick feet & hands/reflexes can make up for a lot of slow.

A guy like Stanley can look slow but if he has that quickness he can still be good. That's harder to have when everything is heavier and has to move farther though.

I also think it's far tougher for big guys like Stanley to gain more quickness over a smaller guy because of their reach. They get lazy because they can reach so far. I see it with Myers all the time and have already seen it with Stanley in the A. They reach out to try and make plays rather then skate to make plays and it often leads to them being out of position. Whereas smaller guys have to learn quickness to adapt or they will never make it.

 

[JetsUK]

I wouldn't put it that way. To me it has all the earmarks of Chevy allowing himself to be talked into something.

In the end the decision is made by a committee and we will probably never know who pushed for Stanley. That doesn't entirely let Chevy off the hook. The final decision is his but he is influenced by the others. They made the very common mistake of drafting size. It happens. Just hope they have learned.

I don't have it in me to plod through the Stanley threads, but IIRC this is what happened, a narrative backed up by Garret9. Recent drafts indicate that the Jets are more interested in drafting Morrisseys than Stanleys.

I don't think he'll ever skate like Myers but he's a smarter player, I think, and may yet turn out as an intimidating D with good positioning and some offence. Given ChiaMorrow's ice-time already this year, having a Stanley in the wings may still end up as a positive. Someday.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't have it in me to plod through the Stanley threads, but IIRC this is what happened, a narrative backed up by Garret9. Recent drafts indicate that the Jets are more interested in drafting Morrisseys than Stanleys.

I don't think he'll ever skate like Myers but he's a smarter player, I think, and may yet turn out as an intimidating D with good positioning and some offence. Given ChiaMorrow's ice-time already this year, having a Stanley in the wings may still end up as a positive. Someday.

Anything can happen. He is progressing at an adequate pace. Barely adequate. But as long as that continues he remains a prospect.

 

[garret9]

There are some who liked Stanley, who still like him.
There are some who disliked Stanley, who still dislike him.
There are some who have switched sides.

There are those that think his progression proves the first group.
There are those that think his progression proves the second group.
There are those that think his progression does not prove either group.

 

[Daximus]

Anything can happen. He is progressing at an adequate pace. Barely adequate. But as long as that continues he remains a prospect.

Yeah at this point he's pointless with a -1 through 5 games. Hasn't looked great in the games I've seen. Though the Moose in general haven't been great IMO.

 

[KingBogo]

Cholowski and Clague would solve our concerns on Ld

I think Niku and Samberg will solve any concerns on LHD. If we lose Trouba RHD becomes a much bigger long term concern.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I think Niku and Samberg will solve any concerns on LHD. If we lose Trouba RHD becomes a much bigger long term concern.

We don't want to trade a forward who is playing less than their best as not as good of a return. But may have to consider trading Connor or Ehlers and get a good D.

 

[KingBogo]

We don't want to trade a forward who is playing less than their best as not as good of a return. But may have to consider trading Connor or Ehlers and get a good D.

I'm big fans of both, but I especially think trading Connor would be a mistake. I think there is a really good possibility he spends his career as a 40-50 goal man, that does a whole lot of good things on the ice.

 

[Daximus]

I'm big fans of both, but I especially think trading Connor would be a mistake. I think there is a really good possibility he spends his career as a 40-50 goal man, that does a whole lot of good things on the ice.

Connor seems like the type to flirt with it every once in awhile but being a 40-50 goal man means you are among the NHL's elite goalscorers every season. I could see a 40 goal season maybe once in his career but likely a 30-35 goal guy for the majority of his prime.

 

[KingBogo]

Connor seems like the type to flirt with it every once in awhile but being a 40-50 goal man means you are among the NHL's elite goalscorers every season. I could see a 40 goal season maybe once in his career but likely a 30-35 goal guy for the majority of his prime.

I think Connor will be, going back to his historic NCAA season. I just see a player that ticks off just about everything you need to do to be a goal scoring machine.

 

[garret9]

For fun...

Looking at the Jet picks outside of the top 20 slot, blind draft by numbers makes Jets miss out on Poolman, Copp, and (the a big one) Lowry...

But, they gain Bjorkstrand, Nick Shore (who I think is a NHL talent, IMO), McCabe, Gostisbehere... plus *I believe* DeBrincat and Clague instead of Stanley.

Now, would you make that trade? Stanley, Poolman, Copp, and Lowry for Bjorkstrand, Shore, Gostisbehere, DeBrincat, and Clague?

Also, I would argue that not-blind numbers doesn't make those misses... Poolman (doesn't have comps because of age in league), Copp (using his second half of season when on top line instead of first half with 4th line minutes gives him a PCS rating numbers would draft at his spot), and Lowry (mononucleosis kills player's PCS all the time) might make a smarter model.

 

[garret9]

Connor seems like the type to flirt with it every once in awhile but being a 40-50 goal man means you are among the NHL's elite goalscorers every season. I could see a 40 goal season maybe once in his career but likely a 30-35 goal guy for the majority of his prime.

This is old (2013), but I once said this:

How reasonable is it to expect a 40 goalscorer from a player?
Well over the last three seasons, a consistent 40 goal scorer would need to put up at least 103 goals total due to the shortened 2012-13 season. Only Steven Stamkos (114) and Alex Ovechkin(121) have reached that level, with neither player posting above the 40 goal (or 23 for pro-rated short season) in all three times. The next closest in goal totals is Corey Perry, whose 95 goals averages out to just slightly better than a 36 goal scorer per a season.
If looking at per game pace instead, a 40 goal scorer would need to pace at 0.49 goals per game or higher. We find again that over the last three seasons only Stamkos (0.68) and Ovechkin (0.59) have paced above that. There are two players who have matched that pace in James Neal and Evgeni Malkin, although neither one of them have matched it in all 3 seasons.
A thirty goal scorer is essentially what the old 40 was in the previous NHL era. A 30 goal scorer pro-rated with the short season would be 78 or more goals over the last 3 seasons. Yet, only 15 players have totalled 78 or more over the last three seasons combined.​

 

[Daximus]

This is old (2013), but I once said this:

How reasonable is it to expect a 40 goalscorer from a player?
Well over the last three seasons, a consistent 40 goal scorer would need to put up at least 103 goals total due to the shortened 2012-13 season. Only Steven Stamkos (114) and Alex Ovechkin(121) have reached that level, with neither player posting above the 40 goal (or 23 for pro-rated short season) in all three times. The next closest in goal totals is Corey Perry, whose 95 goals averages out to just slightly better than a 36 goal scorer per a season.
If looking at per game pace instead, a 40 goal scorer would need to pace at 0.49 goals per game or higher. We find again that over the last three seasons only Stamkos (0.68) and Ovechkin (0.59) have paced above that. There are two players who have matched that pace in James Neal and Evgeni Malkin, although neither one of them have matched it in all 3 seasons.
A thirty goal scorer is essentially what the old 40 was in the previous NHL era. A 30 goal scorer pro-rated with the short season would be 78 or more goals over the last 3 seasons. Yet, only 15 players have totalled 78 or more over the last three seasons combined.​

Exactly. 40 goals scorers are essentially the elite of the elite in the world now. Like 5 guys tops every year. Ober the last 4 season only 15 times has the 40 goal mark been hit. Only Ovechkin has done it more than once in that time period.

This year is crazy out of the gate though. Lots and lots of guys seem to be scoring above .50 GPG rates. Though that should slow down as the season goes on.

 

[Adam da bomb]

For fun...

Looking at the Jet picks outside of the top 20 slot, blind draft by numbers makes Jets miss out on Poolman, Copp, and (the a big one) Lowry...

But, they gain Bjorkstrand, Nick Shore (who I think is a NHL talent, IMO), McCabe, Gostisbehere... plus *I believe* DeBrincat and Clague instead of Stanley.

Now, would you make that trade? Stanley, Poolman, Copp, and Lowry for Bjorkstrand, Shore, Gostisbehere, DeBrincat, and Clague?

Also, I would argue that not-blind numbers doesn't make those misses... Poolman (doesn't have comps because of age in league), Copp (using his second half of season when on top line instead of first half with 4th line minutes gives him a PCS rating numbers would draft at his spot), and Lowry (mononucleosis kills player's PCS all the time) might make a smarter model.

Wow that makes drafting easy if they just go by the numbers. You can skip money on scouting departments.

 

[Daximus]

Definitely need a good blend of eyes, stats and deeper analysis. But simply drafting for size I think is the dumbest thing one can do.