Prospect Info: Logan Stanley: How has he progressed?

[surixon]

Yeah our rural areas seem to be getting hit to. Regina just had a bloop on the radar but a lot of it has to do with people in rural areas travelling out of province.

Yeah pretty much the area around Brandon has been are hardest hit.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the CHL will play in front of fans or they won't play at all so the question comes down to whether provinces and municipalities let them. The AHL will likely follow the NHL's lead but the sportsnet has never had more viewership in their history as a percentage of the population as they had in August. So you have to wonder if broadcasters aren't going to want that sweet sweet ad revenue.

Maybe the NHL just does what the NFL is doing and plays in empty buildings and hopes that people are still bored enough to watch. Because they are watching, so far this is the most watched playoffs of all time. Will that carry over into a shortened season next year? Maybe. Depends on if anything else is going on in the world because right now people are bored and they are watching sports in record numbers.

I doubt any jurisdiction in Canada will allow games in front of fans unless it is an extremely limited number. Could CHL teams pay the bills playing in front of 800 fans?

With less entertainment choices available, I'm not surprised that NHL on TV is getting high ratings. That will continue for some time and works in favour of an NHL season. I don't think it helps AHL and CHL, although there could be some TV money even for them.

Not sure but isn't the NBC TV contract up for re-negotiation now? Or does it still have some term? The SN contract still has at least a couple of years. Will they agree to re-negotiate under Covid? I think they lost money on it the first year. Don't know about subsequent years. If they have been losing till now and suddenly have the chance to recoup their losses, they are not going to give up too much. But the NHL can offer them the choice between no season at all and re-negotiation, so maybe the NHL can get the TV money up into the level they will need. This all remains to be seen. I don't think the NHL can make ends meet under existing TV contracts.

 

[Daximus]

I doubt any jurisdiction in Canada will allow games in front of fans unless it is an extremely limited number. Could CHL teams pay the bills playing in front of 800 fans?

With less entertainment choices available, I'm not surprised that NHL on TV is getting high ratings. That will continue for some time and works in favour of an NHL season. I don't think it helps AHL and CHL, although there could be some TV money even for them.

Not sure but isn't the NBC TV contract up for re-negotiation now? Or does it still have some term? The SN contract still has at least a couple of years. Will they agree to re-negotiate under Covid? I think they lost money on it the first year. Don't know about subsequent years. If they have been losing till now and suddenly have the chance to recoup their losses, they are not going to give up too much. But the NHL can offer them the choice between no season at all and re-negotiation, so maybe the NHL can get the TV money up into the level they will need. This all remains to be seen. I don't think the NHL can make ends meet under existing TV contracts.

Can the CHL afford to not play at all? No concert revenue coming in. Most teams don't own their buildings so it's not a huge hit to them not to play. So likely just paying staff, player wages are a pittance. But they lose out on a lot of revenue by sitting on the sidelines. Gate, concessions, merchandise. That's a lot of money not coming in, while still spending.

NBC contract runs through 2020/21 season, so expires after this year. Have to wonder what will happen if the NHL doesn't have anything to present while under contract. Does Rogers and NBC sue the NHL for breach of contract, is there a pandemic stipulation? You would have to think Rogers would love to renegotiate, the NHL not so much. That's a cash cow for them, that contract is massive. Can the NHL afford to not have that contract? I seriously doubt it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Can the CHL afford to not play at all? No concert revenue coming in. Most teams don't own their buildings so it's not a huge hit to them not to play. So likely just paying staff, player wages are a pittance. But they lose out on a lot of revenue by sitting on the sidelines. Gate, concessions, merchandise. That's a lot of money not coming in, while still spending.

NBC contract runs through 2020/21 season, so expires after this year. Have to wonder what will happen if the NHL doesn't have anything to present while under contract. Does Rogers and NBC sue the NHL for breach of contract, is there a pandemic stipulation? You would have to think Rogers would love to renegotiate, the NHL not so much. That's a cash cow for them, that contract is massive. Can the NHL afford to not have that contract? I seriously doubt it.

CHL is not a big money maker to begin with. More or less a break even proposition from what I have heard. They can cut expenses to zero if necessary.

Re-negotiated contracts would be for a lot more money, not less. Based on the expectation of much higher ratings while people are stuck at home. Without a lot more TV money, how can the NHL have a season? The TV money they get now is nowhere near the normal gate revenue. They just signed a new CBA that promised the players pretty much business as usual.

I keep asking and not getting any answers. Where will the money come from?

 

[Daximus]

CHL is not a big money maker to begin with. More or less a break even proposition from what I have heard. They can cut expenses to zero if necessary.

Re-negotiated contracts would be for a lot more money, not less. Based on the expectation of much higher ratings while people are stuck at home. Without a lot more TV money, how can the NHL have a season? The TV money they get now is nowhere near the normal gate revenue. They just signed a new CBA that promised the players pretty much business as usual.

I keep asking and not getting any answers. Where will the money come from?

You think? Why would NBC renegotiate when they get the games anyways? I can't see Rogers finally saying sure lets renegotiate for more, now that they are finally making money. Neither of them are going to renegotiate at this time.

 

[TS Quint]

thats a real bummer especially for a 1st rd pick

Not all first round picks are equal. Sure I wish the Jets found a way to not trade up and pick Girard or Hronek but other than DeBrincat at 39 and those two defensemen the rest aren’t great Players in that area of the 2016 draft.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You think? Why would NBC renegotiate when they get the games anyways? I can't see Rogers finally saying sure lets renegotiate for more, now that they are finally making money. Neither of them are going to renegotiate at this time.

Then the NHL is not going to have a season.


And that is why NBC and Rogers would re-negotiate. Maybe.

There isn't enough money in the current TV contracts to pay the bills. The only other way to have a season is for every NHL owner to dig into his own pocket and ante up the amount they would normally get from ticket sales. In the Jets case, that would be about 75 million US $. Give or take. They would need to borrow that against the equity they have in their franchises, if they could find the lenders.

 

[Daximus]

Then the NHL is not going to have a season.


And that is why NBC and Rogers would re-negotiate. Maybe.

There isn't enough money in the current TV contracts to pay the bills. The only other way to have a season is for every NHL owner to dig into his own pocket and ante up the amount they would normally get from ticket sales. In the Jets case, that would be about 75 million US $. Give or take. They would need to borrow that against the equity they have in their franchises, if they could find the lenders.

With a shortened season does that mean they pay less in contracts though. Season likely won't start until January now. In all likelihood that means 41 games, half a season, playoffs start on normal time. Draft is at the normal date.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

With a shortened season does that mean they pay less in contracts though. Season likely won't start until January now. In all likelihood that means 41 games, half a season, playoffs start on normal time. Draft is at the normal date.

From what I read about the new CBA they promised the players near full pay. Players are paid by the season, not by the game.

TV contracts, OTOH, almost certainly would pay half for half a season.

I could be completely wrong, but I have been assuming that all of the optimism coming from the league has to be based on an expectation of more TV money. I just can't see any other source for the kind of revenue they will need. I haven't seen any sign of cost cutting on a large scale. Some office, administration and marketing people have been laid off. That is peanuts compared to player salaries. They can hire a whole support staff for the price of 1 or 2 players at league minimum salary.

 

[Daximus]

From what I read about the new CBA they promised the players near full pay. Players are paid by the season, not by the game.

TV contracts, OTOH, almost certainly would pay half for half a season.

I could be completely wrong, but I have been assuming that all of the optimism coming from the league has to be based on an expectation of more TV money. I just can't see any other source for the kind of revenue they will need. I haven't seen any sign of cost cutting on a large scale. Some office, administration and marketing people have been laid off. That is peanuts compared to player salaries. They can hire a whole support staff for the price of 1 or 2 players at league minimum salary.

I've read all kinds of conflicting things on how they get paid. I think the players only get played if they play, so I could see the league and PA trying to come together on a lower amount to enable the league to operate. Otherwise the players go without pay for the season, the owners go without any revenue with a bunch of overhead still. Especially those that own their own buildings with literally no other revenue streams coming in from concerts and events.

A dead season will cost teams millions still with absolutely no revenue coming in, have the league leaving millions on the table and have players leaving millions on the table as well. I see absolutely no way in hell this season won't happen regardless of fans not being in attendance.

 

[surixon]

CHL is not a big money maker to begin with. More or less a break even proposition from what I have heard. They can cut expenses to zero if necessary.

Re-negotiated contracts would be for a lot more money, not less. Based on the expectation of much higher ratings while people are stuck at home. Without a lot more TV money, how can the NHL have a season? The TV money they get now is nowhere near the normal gate revenue. They just signed a new CBA that promised the players pretty much business as usual.

I keep asking and not getting any answers. Where will the money come from?

They haven't promised the players full pay. The players have to pay back what they owe this year or any other short falls over the life of the CBA.

What they have done is essentially deferred when the players have to owe that cash to until when league revenues improve after a vaccine comes out.

Holding the cap flat with an escrow cap helps the players in the beginning but once revenue gets back to and exceeds current highs the flat cap helps the owners recoup what they are owed over the past year and a half.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I've read all kinds of conflicting things on how they get paid. I think the players only get played if they play, so I could see the league and PA trying to come together on a lower amount to enable the league to operate. Otherwise the players go without pay for the season, the owners go without any revenue with a bunch of overhead still. Especially those that own their own buildings with literally no other revenue streams coming in from concerts and events.

A dead season will cost teams millions still with absolutely no revenue coming in, have the league leaving millions on the table and have players leaving millions on the table as well. I see absolutely no way in hell this season won't happen regardless of fans not being in attendance.

They just recently signed a new CBA. It was negotiated in response to Covid-19 and the "pause". The negotiation between the league and NHLPA is done.

If there are no fans in the seats, the problem of revenue for the arena's owned by teams is unchanged. Those teams that don't own, or at least operate, the arenas might be larger. The owners of those arenas will want their rent whether there are fans or not. Otherwise, go play somewhere else.

What are these millions in expenses with a dead season? What activities will the teams be engaged in that have large costs?

You are talking about teams and players leaving millions on the table. Where are those millions going to come from if not fans and TV? They aren't leaving any money on the table if that money doesn't exist. It has to come from somewhere. In the NHL, that somewhere is ticket sales.

If they play the current TV money will be there. What is that? 20-25% as much as ticket sales, if that? That won't come close.

I was expecting the players to agree to accept something like 50-60% escrow. Because half a salary is better than none. That would be the way to adjust to the reduced HRR - still split 50/50. But in the new CBA, they capped escrow at a max of 20%, IIRC. It has been almost that high in other recent years. I don't see the money to allow them to operate. Player salaries are by far the biggest expense and ticket sales are by far the biggest revenue. They can't lose that revenue and still keep that expense. The consequences of a lost season are nothing compared to that.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

They haven't promised the players full pay. The players have to pay back what they owe this year or any other short falls over the life of the CBA.

What they have done is essentially deferred when the players have to owe that cash to until when league revenues improve after a vaccine comes out.

Holding the cap flat with an escrow cap helps the players in the beginning but once revenue gets back to and exceeds current highs the flat cap helps the owners recoup what they are owed over the past year and a half.

OK, makes some sense. That still means the owners are 'loaning' a helluva pile of money to the players. It also means that future players are subsidizing current players. The cap may need to stay at current level for a lot longer than 2-3 years.

 

[surixon]

OK, makes some sense. That still means the owners are 'loaning' a helluva pile of money to the players. It also means that future players are subsidizing current players. The cap may need to stay at current level for a lot longer than 2-3 years.

I believe they said they are holding it flat for 4 years.

Yup essentially future players are subsidizing current players. Not all that unheard of for a union to shift the burden to new/future members.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I believe they said they are holding it flat for 4 years.

Yup essentially future players are subsidizing current players. Not all that unheard of for a union to shift the burden to new/future members.

Given the size of the likely deficit in HRR, I wouldn't be surprised if it took 10 years to repay.

 

[surixon]

Given the size of the likely deficit in HRR, I wouldn't be surprised if it took 10 years to repay.

Ultimately depends on what type of year the NHL will be able to run next season. Will they be able to get fans in stands. Even 25% capacity will soften the blow a decent amount.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Given the size of the likely deficit in HRR, I wouldn't be surprised if it took 10 years to repay.

regardless of the cap, the players aren't going to get more than 50% of HRR, are they?

 

[surixon]

regardless of the cap, the players aren't going to get more than 50% of HRR, are they?

Short term yes with escrow being capped. Over the long term the owners will make that back.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Ultimately depends on what type of year the NHL will be able to run next season. Will they be able to get fans in stands. Even 25% capacity will soften the blow a decent amount.

Any number of fans will help quite a bit. I expect they would charge premium prices - and get them - if they could only sell, say 3500 tickets.

Lets see how we manage with Covid once school starts. If it doesn't get much worse than it is now it may be possible for a limited number of fans. Of course, we will also have to see how the US is doing at the same time. Their numbers have improved over the last couple of weeks but they are still 7-10 times as bad as Canada's per capita. And you can be confident that as soon as they see a little progress, they will rush to re-open and start partying again.

As I said before, I am hopeful they will be able to make it work. But there are a lot of roadblocks to overcome.

I remember being the pessimist here thinking that they would be able to restart the season about mid May. A lot of people thought the pause would last a month or less. What did we know?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

regardless of the cap, the players aren't going to get more than 50% of HRR, are they?

Without fans, 50% is going to be a long way below the cap. It is going to be a long way below 80% of the cap. They have been guaranteed 80% of 81.5 mil. But Surixon has explained that making up the difference will be deferred until the paying fans are back. So they will actually get more than 50% of HRR but it will have to be repaid over some number of years.

 

[Daximus]

They just recently signed a new CBA. It was negotiated in response to Covid-19 and the "pause". The negotiation between the league and NHLPA is done.

If there are no fans in the seats, the problem of revenue for the arena's owned by teams is unchanged. Those teams that don't own, or at least operate, the arenas might be larger. The owners of those arenas will want their rent whether there are fans or not. Otherwise, go play somewhere else.

What are these millions in expenses with a dead season? What activities will the teams be engaged in that have large costs?

You are talking about teams and players leaving millions on the table. Where are those millions going to come from if not fans and TV? They aren't leaving any money on the table if that money doesn't exist. It has to come from somewhere. In the NHL, that somewhere is ticket sales.

If they play the current TV money will be there. What is that? 20-25% as much as ticket sales, if that? That won't come close.

I was expecting the players to agree to accept something like 50-60% escrow. Because half a salary is better than none. That would be the way to adjust to the reduced HRR - still split 50/50. But in the new CBA, they capped escrow at a max of 20%, IIRC. It has been almost that high in other recent years. I don't see the money to allow them to operate. Player salaries are by far the biggest expense and ticket sales are by far the biggest revenue. They can't lose that revenue and still keep that expense. The consequences of a lost season are nothing compared to that.

I'd imagine if other leagues get going which it seems like they may try and Europe is in full swing they will still have scouting staff, not sure if the coaches still get paid so there is that. The arena lights will still be on so there is that as well.

So without fans the NHL is dead in the water is what you are saying. What if we don't find a vaccine that allows for adequate fans for another 2 or 3 years. Unlikely but what if?

Does the NHL just sit on it's hands while literally every single other league in the world plays? The money just won't be there from Rogers or NBC or anyone. Hockey had a big return because it was one of the few sports on but that is still a drop in the bucket compared to what the NFL is likely to bring, compared to what the NBA brings. Who takes the L here? I seriously doubt the players are budging.

 

[Daximus]

Without fans, 50% is going to be a long way below the cap. It is going to be a long way below 80% of the cap. They have been guaranteed 80% of 81.5 mil. But Surixon has explained that making up the difference will be deferred until the paying fans are back. So they will actually get more than 50% of HRR but it will have to be repaid over some number of years.

What we're hearing about the 2020-21 NHL season

This ESPN article makes it seem like the owners are prepared to take the L if it means returning to play.

60-65 game schedule, limited fans, likely a bubble situation for the players again (many may opt out), I could see some of the older guys like Chara walking away from this season.

 

[garret9]

thats a real bummer especially for a 1st rd pick

As the first guy to be on the Jets are going to draft Stanley and it's not a smart move... depth players are first round misses more often than people tend to think.

 

[Teemusalami204]

How has he progressed ??? Way to slow...

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

As the first guy to be on the Jets are going to draft Stanley and it's not a smart move... depth players are first round misses more often than people tend to think.

Any rumblings of what fresh hell we can expect from this year's pick?