Salary Cap: Little to no cap increase the next four years

[Shaman464]

When was the last time they raised the dues? Do you have a source showing that as salaries increase so do the dues?

It just seems like you're trying to make the union bent out of shape about something with zero evidence.

Unions dues definitely rise. I can say that having worked for the AFLCIO for a few years. How often and how much? No idea. The union will definitely not be happy even if the dues don't change at all. Their interests are to make sure the players get the best deal possible. The cap not raising means that salaries will likely drop on average (as most long term deals are made with the idea the cap will rise).

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Unions dues definitely rise. I can say that having worked for the AFLCIO for a few years. How often and how much? No idea. The union will definitely not be happy even if the dues don't change at all. Their interests are to make sure the players get the best deal possible. The cap not raising means that salaries will likely drop on average (as most long term deals are made with the idea the cap will rise).

ok, so your saying the NHLPA is going to have a shit fit is based on zero information.

Thanks.

 

[Shaman464]

ok, so your saying the NHLPA is going to have a shit fit is based on zero information.

Thanks.

They have a fiduciary duty to look out for the best interests of the players of the NHL. Salaries likely stagnating if not dropping in and of itself is enough reason for them to throw one.

 

[Winger98]

People hated when Holland spent to the cap and we still sucked.

Isn’t this better? Why should we be spending to the cap right now?

It seems like being less trigger happy in free agency and having more cap flexibility is a good thing right now. To me it’s being “smart”, not “cheap”.

Depends how long you want the Wings to be this bad. Covid put the Wings in a position where they could have probably had a few doors open to them that normally wouldn't have been, had they been willing to spend a bit. I don't think the next few summers are going to be nearly as favorable for them in that regard, as teams are going to acclimate themselves to the new cap reality and new contracts will be made with the flat cap in mind. Tampa might look to shed some salary, but they might pull that off with Seattle. Other than them, I'm not sure how many teams are are really tight going into this off-season. And if they're not busting their cap this summer, I really doubt a GM is going to screw himself going into the next couple of summers already knowing the cap is unlikely to move.

Being "smart" probably locked us into five years as a lotto team.

 

[Winger98]

They have a fiduciary duty to look out for the best interests of the players of the NHL. Salaries likely stagnating if not dropping in and of itself is enough reason for them to throw one.

If it means they get bit far less by escrow then a flat cap could very likely be in their best interest.

 

[Frk It]

Depends how long you want the Wings to be this bad. Covid put the Wings in a position where they could have probably had a few doors open to them that normally wouldn't have been, had they been willing to spend a bit. I don't think the next few summers are going to be nearly as favorable for them in that regard, as teams are going to acclimate themselves to the new cap reality and new contracts will be made with the flat cap in mind. Tampa might look to shed some salary, but they might pull that off with Seattle. Other than them, I'm not sure how many teams are are really tight going into this off-season. And if they're not busting their cap this summer, I really doubt a GM is going to screw himself going into the next couple of summers already knowing the cap is unlikely to move.

Being "smart" probably locked us into five years as a lotto team.

What was the alternative scenario that didn’t lock us into five years as a lotto team?

 

[Tetsuo]

Depends how long you want the Wings to be this bad. Covid put the Wings in a position where they could have probably had a few doors open to them that normally wouldn't have been, had they been willing to spend a bit. I don't think the next few summers are going to be nearly as favorable for them in that regard, as teams are going to acclimate themselves to the new cap reality and new contracts will be made with the flat cap in mind. Tampa might look to shed some salary, but they might pull that off with Seattle. Other than them, I'm not sure how many teams are are really tight going into this off-season. And if they're not busting their cap this summer, I really doubt a GM is going to screw himself going into the next couple of summers already knowing the cap is unlikely to move.

Being "smart" probably locked us into five years as a lotto team.

I don't know if you've looked into it, but there is still going to be a fair few teams that are going to be in pretty difficult circumstances this off-season. Tampa, the Islanders, Vancouver, Washington, Chicago, Dallas, Vegas, Pittsburgh and Toronto are all going to be in some Cap-distress, while Edmonton, St. Louis and Philly will be pretty close. Seattle is going to be a magic wand for everyone of those teams so there will be plenty of room for Detroit to take on a bad contract.

But what I don't buy especially is the sentiment that our rebuild timeline was altered by a lack of moves. This team is going to remain non-competitive until multiple young players emerge for us as elite talents at the NHL level. Free Agency or Trades are simply not the way contenders are built in the NHL. So until a few of our prospects exceed their draft projection, or we pick a stud prospect, the best we can do is try to accumulate talent on our roster that is either cheap, short-term, or both. If we get really lucky, maybe some team gives up too much for Mantha or Bert, and that might move the needle for us a few years down the road, but that is both a big if and would take awhile for it to happen.

To reiterate: we are going to be bad until 2023 at least, and we still might only be mediocre by then if we are unlucky.

 

[raymond23]

Depends how long you want the Wings to be this bad. Covid put the Wings in a position where they could have probably had a few doors open to them that normally wouldn't have been, had they been willing to spend a bit. I don't think the next few summers are going to be nearly as favorable for them in that regard, as teams are going to acclimate themselves to the new cap reality and new contracts will be made with the flat cap in mind. Tampa might look to shed some salary, but they might pull that off with Seattle. Other than them, I'm not sure how many teams are are really tight going into this off-season. And if they're not busting their cap this summer, I really doubt a GM is going to screw himself going into the next couple of summers already knowing the cap is unlikely to move.

Being "smart" probably locked us into five years as a lotto team.

You think signing any of those top ufa's would have that big of an impact?

I think you could make that argument with Pietrangelo but nobody else really is close to that type of player. And what top ufa would want to sign with a team that just had a historically bad season?

Unless you were willing to pitch out 7x8 for a guy like Krug or Hall, they weren't going to consider coming here. If that's the case, being smart was definitely the right decision. There will be players of that caliber in ufa most years.

 

[Tetsuo]

You think signing any of those top ufa's would have that big of an impact?

I think you could make that argument with Pietrangelo but nobody else really is close to that type of player. And what top ufa would want to sign with a team that just had a historically bad season?

Unless you were willing to pitch out 7x8 for a guy like Krug or Hall, they weren't going to consider coming here. If that's the case, being smart was definitely the right decision. There will be players of that caliber in ufa most years.

Only guy we should be offering the world to in the next few Free Agencies is Barkov. I would offer $11.5M x 7 for him pretty comfortably, maybe even more if it came to it.

And I'm someone who would have liked Krug to have been brought in order to help our team score more and make our assets look more appealing on the open market. But definitely not for the term he signed for.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Even if we have to outbid every team, it'd be worth it to...

Add Werenski '22 UFA $8.5m x 7 ?
Add Barkov '23 UFA $10 x 7 ?


Normally I shudder at the idea of overpay/outbid, but these are the types to do it on. Youngish Elite 1C & Good 1D. We're easily a playoff bubble team w/these 2, assuming improvement from our current young roster core + Seider/Raymond/JV/Berggren/Lindstrom/AlJo + ? (McIsaac, Wallinder, Viro, Tuo, Soderblom) etc. Goalies can be found in FA every offseason, worst case sign (2) 1B's a la Greiss & Bernier.

 

[Gniwder]

Actually, we do not know how willingly C. Illitch will spend money yet, since the Red Wings and the Tigers have been to bad to invest larger amounts for players. But for what it’s worth, the Red Wings recently took Staal‘s contract for a pick and the Tigers spent € 16m to improve the return in the Verlander trade.

Gruß,
BSHH

I don't think he's gonna spend money until arena attendance is allowed again. He's a business guy through and through, he looks at each individual business on its own, he's not gonna rob Peter to pay Paul like everyone wants him to.

He'll eventually spend more money because successful teams make more money in terms of both attendance, TV deals, and merchandise.

So in other words, probably not going big on free agency this offseason, but maybe the next.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

This gon b good for us!

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

What a time to be a dumpster fire!

And have an infinite amount of cap space after this year

 

[MBH]

People hated when Holland spent to the cap and we still sucked.

Isn’t this better? Why should we be spending to the cap right now?

It seems like being less trigger happy in free agency and having more cap flexibility is a good thing right now. To me it’s being “smart”, not “cheap”.

It might be smart to spend some of that money on underpriced UFAs this offseason.
They'll never be cheaper.

My problem this year was signing shit guys to do jobs rookies or youngsters could do.

Taylor Hall could be a nice add at a very reasonable price.

 

[Shaman464]

If it means they get bit far less by escrow then a flat cap could very likely be in their best interest.

What? Not sure you've been following it, but Bettman has been pushing for more escrow over the next 3 years.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

It might be smart to spend some of that money on underpriced UFAs this offseason.
They'll never be cheaper.

My problem this year was signing shit guys to do jobs rookies or youngsters could do.

Taylor Hall could be a nice add at a very reasonable price.

Sign Taylor Hall for next season to improve our odds at the lottery.

 

[MBH]

Sign Taylor Hall for next season to improve our odds at the lottery.

Just to have someone with watchable level of skill

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Just to have someone with watchable level of skill

I’m speaking purely of his draft lottery record. 5 times how, and possibly 6 with Buffalo this year.

 

[Tetsuo]

I’m speaking purely of his draft lottery record. 5 times how, and possibly 6 with Buffalo this year.

If there was ever a year to try to get some of his lottery magic, it would be 2022. Wright and Lambert are probably the best Center prospects since Matthews (and maybe McDavid for Wright depending on how much of a believer you are), so snagging one of them would do wonders for our rebuild. There's also a pretty outstanding crop coming out the US, and Savoie is still highly regarded too, but none of them are as tantalizing.

 

[Gniwder]

It might be smart to spend some of that money on underpriced UFAs this offseason.
They'll never be cheaper.

My problem this year was signing shit guys to do jobs rookies or youngsters could do.

Taylor Hall could be a nice add at a very reasonable price.

If there was ever a season to play all of the youngsters, it'll be next season. The team needs to tank next season, and there will be better UFAs in 2022 anyways.

 

[Pavels Dog]

If there was ever a season to play all of the youngsters, it'll be next season. The team needs to tank next season, and there will be better UFAs in 2022 anyways.

No, this team needs to improve next season. Not "sell our futures" type of aggressive approach to improving, but we can't head into next season without the goal to improve.

 

[Winger98]

What was the alternative scenario that didn’t lock us into five years as a lotto team?

The alternative is that you sign a meaningful player or two to supplement the kids we have coming up and push that five year window of crap to three years, and then maybe guys like Mantha and Bert play meaningful games here rather than be trade chips to bring in help for years after that five years of losing. Instead of bringing in staal you go after Krug. You go out and get a guy who plugs into the top half of your lineup and stays there.

I'm not saying we fix everything over the one summer. I'm saying this last summer we had an opportunity to supplement our kids with a quality player or two, and that the cumulative addition of a quality vet or two every summer and moving kids in over the next few years, could have shortened the ugly part of this rebuild a couple of years.

I don't know if you've looked into it, but there is still going to be a fair few teams that are going to be in pretty difficult circumstances this off-season. Tampa, the Islanders, Vancouver, Washington, Chicago, Dallas, Vegas, Pittsburgh and Toronto are all going to be in some Cap-distress, while Edmonton, St. Louis and Philly will be pretty close. Seattle is going to be a magic wand for everyone of those teams so there will be plenty of room for Detroit to take on a bad contract.

But what I don't buy especially is the sentiment that our rebuild timeline was altered by a lack of moves. This team is going to remain non-competitive until multiple young players emerge for us as elite talents at the NHL level. Free Agency or Trades are simply not the way contenders are built in the NHL. So until a few of our prospects exceed their draft projection, or we pick a stud prospect, the best we can do is try to accumulate talent on our roster that is either cheap, short-term, or both. If we get really lucky, maybe some team gives up too much for Mantha or Bert, and that might move the needle for us a few years down the road, but that is both a big if and would take awhile for it to happen.

To reiterate: we are going to be bad until 2023 at least, and we still might only be mediocre by then if we are unlucky.

A bit of a strawman and also not really true. Go back over the past several cup winners and find how many guys were brought in from outside of their organizations. Also, that 2023 date you're throwing around is just two years out and you are being more optimistic than I am arguing for here. Back that up to 2026 for five years and ask yourself how being a losing club for another five years can affect an organization. You know what the Wings look like at that point? Buffalo. Arizona. Edmonton before Holland showed up.

And I have looked at those teams. Tampa is the only one I see a significant issue with and I'd bet they aren't exactly gutted getting cap compliant. Hell, I expect they still find a way to re-sign Coleman. The flat cap is not going to cause teams to purge talent or assets.

What? Not sure you've been following it, but Bettman has been pushing for more escrow over the next 3 years.

He has pushed for more money to be set aside at the beginning of the year. That's not the same as what the players lose at the end. Their best hope to not have their contract gains from the past decade gutted while also not losing their butts to escrow in the next three years is that flat cap.

Just to have someone with watchable level of skill

It's not just that, though. It's putting quality players around the young guys, giving them good players to learn from and to have a mentality in the locker room and the organization that is more conducive to quality hockey. The farther you allow an organization to fall, I think it just gets harder to build it back up and that you start having to fight problems that go beyond a talent gap.

 

[Shaman464]

The alternative is that you sign a meaningful player or two to supplement the kids we have coming up and push that five year window of crap to three years, and then maybe guys like Mantha and Bert play meaningful games here rather than be trade chips to bring in help for years after that five years of losing. Instead of bringing in staal you go after Krug. You go out and get a guy who plugs into the top half of your lineup and stays there.

I'm not saying we fix everything over the one summer. I'm saying this last summer we had an opportunity to supplement our kids with a quality player or two, and that the cumulative addition of a quality vet or two every summer and moving kids in over the next few years, could have shortened the ugly part of this rebuild a couple of years.



A bit of a strawman and also not really true. Go back over the past several cup winners and find how many guys were brought in from outside of their organizations. Also, that 2023 date you're throwing around is just two years out and you are being more optimistic than I am arguing for here. Back that up to 2026 for five years and ask yourself how being a losing club for another five years can affect an organization. You know what the Wings look like at that point? Buffalo. Arizona. Edmonton before Holland showed up.

And I have looked at those teams. Tampa is the only one I see a significant issue with and I'd bet they aren't exactly gutted getting cap compliant. Hell, I expect they still find a way to re-sign Coleman. The flat cap is not going to cause teams to purge talent or assets.



He has pushed for more money to be set aside at the beginning of the year. That's not the same as what the players lose at the end. Their best hope to not have their contract gains from the past decade gutted while also not losing their butts to escrow in the next three years is that flat cap.



It's not just that, though. It's putting quality players around the young guys, giving them good players to learn from and to have a mentality in the locker room and the organization that is more conducive to quality hockey. The farther you allow an organization to fall, I think it just gets harder to build it back up and that you start having to fight problems that go beyond a talent gap.

The way I’ve heard it talked about the escrow increases would be an alternative to a cap reduction, not a flat cap. So it’s possible that both happen.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

One way to look at it is like this:

With a flat cap and the insane amount of expiring contracts we have coming off the books Detroit may find itself with a unique opportunity to rebuild from zero almost like it were an expansion team.

With the mix of kids we have coming in hopefully over the next 2 seasons, plus the number of FAs and buyouts over the next 2-3 years as well as "Please take my trash!" trades, we might be able to Vegas our way into being a good team again quickly.

 

[Frk It]

The alternative is that you sign a meaningful player or two to supplement the kids we have coming up and push that five year window of crap to three years, and then maybe guys like Mantha and Bert play meaningful games here rather than be trade chips to bring in help for years after that five years of losing. Instead of bringing in staal you go after Krug. You go out and get a guy who plugs into the top half of your lineup and stays there.

I'm not saying we fix everything over the one summer. I'm saying this last summer we had an opportunity to supplement our kids with a quality player or two, and that the cumulative addition of a quality vet or two every summer and moving kids in over the next few years, could have shortened the ugly part of this rebuild a couple of years.

Why would the free agents that would actually elevate this team want to sign here?

I would have loved to sign Torey Krug last off-season. Why would he sign here over St. Louis? I would have loved to sign TJ Brodie. Why would he want to sign here over Toronto?

The last time we were hellbent on spending to the cap in the off-season was 2016. We made a run at guys that would actually make a splash like Stamkos, then when they turned us down we resorted to signing Nielsen, and extending Helm and Dekeyser. That is most likely what is going to happen if we spend to the cap in our current situation. Sign middling UFAs and overpay our own guys. Been there, done that.

I don't think this is a necessarily good alternative to what we have done, or would lead to us being in a different place than where we are. The only thing that would keep this team from continuing to be in the basement is better lottery luck, and we haven't gotten it.