Line Combos: Lineup if Playoffs Start in August

[kb]

I'd considered that and forgot to include it in my earlier reply because my stubby fingers couldn't keep up with my rambling brain. Time to cut back on the coffee.

I legitimately laughed there. I know that feeling all too well.

 

[biotk]

Sandin-Barrie: 88:19, 73.21ozs%, 52.7cf%, 45.4xgf% ---> What the hell happened? Not sure you can get much more sheltered when it comes to zone starts.

May just come down to chemistry and Sandin needing that solid defensive player back there. I do wonder if Ceci doesnt go down, are we talking about Sandin starting in the playoffs? For all the bizarre cheering when Ceci got hurt, I know Sandin wasnt happy about it.

Should we be giving this kid a hard look at a larger role in the playoff?

Barrie's partners throughout his career:
2011/12 - Shane O'Brien - Big, physical, experienced, defensively minded D.
2012/13 - Greg Zanon - Experienced, physical, defensively minded D.
2013/14 - Nate Guenin and Nick Holden. Neither had much experience, but both were big, physical, defensively minded D.
2014/15 - Nate Guenin - Big, physical, defensively minded D.
2015/16 - Nick Holden - Big, physical, defensively minded D.
2016/17 - Fedor Tyuntin - Big, physical, experienced, defensively minded D.
2017/18 - Nikita Zadorov and Patrik Nemeth - Big, physical, defensively minded D.
2018/19 - Ian Cole and Nikita Zadorov - Big, physical, defensively minded D (and experienced in the case of Cole).
2019 Playoffs - Nikita Zadorov - Big, physical, defensively minded D.

When I say defensively minded D, it would be a bit like calling Barrie an offensively minded D. Barrie is all offense and bad defensively. These D were all essentially all defense and offensive black holes.

The only D that Toronto has that was anything like all of Barrie's normal partners is Muzzin - and most of the 8 D listed above were bigger than Muzzin. But the problem with using Muzzin as Barrie's partner is that you want Muzzin to be taking on tough competition and you can't do that with Barrie. Barrie's QoC numbers are always in the low end of 2nd pairings, high end 3rd pairings...and even that kind of overstates who he goes up against. Barrie is a dwinger. It is not that he doesn't want to play the defensive side of things (although I wouldn't be surprised if that is the case) it is that he completely sucks at it. So Barrie should never have a partner like Sandin who is not big, or physical* or experienced or defensively minded. (*Sandin throws some really good hits, but he does not have the size or experience to tie up or remove players in front of the net - and neither does Barrie which is why the two of them allowed so many HDCAs when playing together.)

Sandin did best (and looked best) when playing with Ceci because Ceci was the only player he played with (he also looked really good with Marincin in the pre-season) that was even remotely like Barrie's Colorado partners (and Sandin would look even better with a partner that is more like those old Colorado partners than Ceci - bigger, more physical, more experienced etc - as has been the case with all other young talented D when they join the league - including for Dermott whose main partner was Polak). Neither Sandin or Liljegren should be playing in the NHL without having someone like that (big, physical, experienced, defensively minded) as their partner. The farther away from that kind of partner the worse they will look and the more their development will be stifled. I don't think that they need those types of partners forever as they are not dwingers and will gain experience while also developing their defensive ability and strength to the point where they can probably play well with any type of partner, but it will take a couple years to get there.

But regardless, Ceci is much, much better than the fanbase believes and there is zero chance he is coming out of the lineup if healthy.

 

[FraumBallard]

They actually performed quite well but sure pal. You also think Kapanen, Johnsson and Kerfoot are AHL players so take it as you will.

Engvall as well.
I think all 4 are wasted roster spots.
With the talent we have , I just think they are the wrong support players.
Not sure why you think they are good.
We need guys who go to the dirty areas.
None of them do.
Johnsson tries.
Easily pushed off the puck.
Same for Kerfoot.
Kapanen still hasn't figured out that consistent physicality is his ticket to a long career.
Engvall is incredibly frustrating.
Big/Strong/Fast and wouldn't give or take a hit if his life depended on it.
King of the flybys.
That's quite a feat on this super soft Team.
Just my opinion.
Are we pals?
I'd be okay with that.
Maybe even Almost Best friends?

 

[FraumBallard]

Spezza should play centre, good on faceoffs, and maybe 3rd line

Good call.
He has been great for us.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Barrie's partners throughout his career:
2011/12 - Shane O'Brien - Big, physical, experienced, defensively minded D.
2012/13 - Greg Zanon - Experienced, physical, defensively minded D.
2013/14 - Nate Guenin and Nick Holden. Neither had much experience, but both were big, physical, defensively minded D.
2014/15 - Nate Guenin - Big, physical, defensively minded D.
2015/16 - Nick Holden - Big, physical, defensively minded D.
2016/17 - Fedor Tyuntin - Big, physical, experienced, defensively minded D.
2017/18 - Nikita Zadorov and Patrik Nemeth - Big, physical, defensively minded D.
2018/19 - Ian Cole and Nikita Zadorov - Big, physical, defensively minded D (and experienced in the case of Cole).
2019 Playoffs - Nikita Zadorov - Big, physical, defensively minded D.

When I say defensively minded D, it would be a bit like calling Barrie an offensively minded D. Barrie is all offense and bad defensively. These D were all essentially all defense and offensive black holes.

The only D that Toronto has that was anything like all of Barrie's normal partners is Muzzin - and most of the 8 D listed above were bigger than Muzzin. But the problem with using Muzzin as Barrie's partner is that you want Muzzin to be taking on tough competition and you can't do that with Barrie. Barrie's QoC numbers are always in the low end of 2nd pairings, high end 3rd pairings...and even that kind of overstates who he goes up against. Barrie is a dwinger. It is not that he doesn't want to play the defensive side of things (although I wouldn't be surprised if that is the case) it is that he completely sucks at it. So Barrie should never have a partner like Sandin who is not big, or physical* or experienced or defensively minded. (*Sandin throws some really good hits, but he does not have the size or experience to tie up or remove players in front of the net - and neither does Barrie which is why the two of them allowed so many HDCAs when playing together.)

Sandin did best (and looked best) when playing with Ceci because Ceci was the only player he played with (he also looked really good with Marincin in the pre-season) that was even remotely like Barrie's Colorado partners (and Sandin would look even better with a partner that is more like those old Colorado partners than Ceci - bigger, more physical, more experienced etc - as has been the case with all other young talented D when they join the league - including for Dermott whose main partner was Polak). Neither Sandin or Liljegren should be playing in the NHL without having someone like that (big, physical, experienced, defensively minded) as their partner. The farther away from that kind of partner the worse they will look and the more their development will be stifled. I don't think that they need those types of partners forever as they are not dwingers and will gain experience while also developing their defensive ability and strength to the point where they can probably play well with any type of partner, but it will take a couple years to get there.

But regardless, Ceci is much, much better than the fanbase believes and there is zero chance he is coming out of the lineup if healthy.

Between Barrie and Ceci there are good reasons neither is wanted by us next season. With barrie we prefer Reilly over him. With ceci he is just too much CAP. Both have bad warts. Either could play themselves out of playoff lineup with a couple bad shifts. But lets hope both bring their A games and help us out. They both need good playoffs to get contracts next year.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Judging by Keefe’s actions so far, I think the defence shakes out as:

Rielly-Ceci
Muzzin-Holl
Dermott-Barrie
Sandin-Liljegren

Keefe overplays Ceci way too much, it will be addition by subtraction when he’s gone next season.

 

[Mess]

Judging by Keefe’s actions so far, I think the defence shakes out as:

Rielly-Ceci
Muzzin-Holl
Dermott-Barrie
Sandin-Liljegren

Keefe overplays Ceci way too much, it will be addition by subtraction when he’s gone next season.

Not having a top pairing Dman that can play opposite Rielly on the RH side and play big minutes against the opposition better players that can be trusted is a problem.

Expectations are the both Ceci and Barrie are let walk as UFA and we'll be back to the drawing board next year trying to rebuild the defense core. However this is the hand were dealt for this year so hopefully we see both Ceci and Barrie step up in the short-term. Perhaps a strong playoff might see Leafs reconsider that and attempt to resign one.

However something I have thought of though is players that are pending UFAs like Ceci and Barrie and looking for new contracts beyond this year, and the unique situation of this year being playoffs played in August - September with next year without a summer of free agency and recover time and next year starting Oct-Nov.

How motivated are players going to be to risk personal injury that need those new contracts? Block a shot and break a bone, take a big hit and dislocate a shoulder and out for months in recovery without your next contract/paycheque, is going to make for a situation we have not seen in the past as it will effect those players livelihoods going forward.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Judging by Keefe’s actions so far, I think the defence shakes out as:

Rielly-Ceci
Muzzin-Holl
Dermott-Barrie
Sandin-Liljegren

Keefe overplays Ceci way too much, it will be addition by subtraction when he’s gone next season.

I think so too ... but training is Rielly Dermy and then Muzzy and Ceci ... Holl and Barrie should be done 14 day quarantine soon so maybe they will change up workout groups when they come back to rink

 

[IPS]

Engvall as well.
I think all 4 are wasted roster spots.
With the talent we have , I just think they are the wrong support players.
Not sure why you think they are good.
We need guys who go to the dirty areas.
None of them do.
Johnsson tries.
Easily pushed off the puck.
Same for Kerfoot.
Kapanen still hasn't figured out that consistent physicality is his ticket to a long career.
Engvall is incredibly frustrating.
Big/Strong/Fast and wouldn't give or take a hit if his life depended on it.
King of the flybys.
That's quite a feat on this super soft Team.
Just my opinion.
Are we pals?
I'd be okay with that.
Maybe even Almost Best friends?

Wrong support players? Can absolutely agree there. AHL players? No, definitely not.

 

[biotk]

Between Barrie and Ceci there are good reasons neither is wanted by us next season. With barrie we prefer Reilly over him. With ceci he is just too much CAP. Both have bad warts. Either could play themselves out of playoff lineup with a couple bad shifts. But lets hope both bring their A games and help us out. They both need good playoffs to get contracts next year.

There is almost no chance that either could play themself out of the lineup. Neither will have their next contracts based off their playoff performance. I don't think that there is any chance either would be willing to come back under any circumstances. Barrie will look fine again next year on another team when he is put back with the kind of partner he traditionally has always succeeded with. The Leafs' did not have the type of partner Barrie needs to succeed. We blamed him for that, not managment. Ceci did everything that was asked of him. He played against top competition in a mainly defensive role and stopped them from scoring better than anyone else on the team. Dubas think highly of him. He will always be dumped on by fanbases who have been misled by advanced stats and yet will always be screaming that they need defensive D to succeed. No one in NHL management for any team and not a single player in the NHL who should care what the advanced stats crowd thinks about anything. He will be fine and well paid next year when he chooses a team next year that is out of spot light.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

There is almost no chance that either could play themself out of the lineup. Neither will have their next contracts based off their playoff performance. I don't think that there is any chance either would be willing to come back under any circumstances. Barrie will look fine again next year on another team when he is put back with the kind of partner he traditionally has always succeeded with. The Leafs' did not have the type of partner Barrie needs to succeed. We blamed him for that, not managment. Ceci did everything that was asked of him. He played against top competition in a mainly defensive role and stopped them from scoring better than anyone else on the team. Dubas think highly of him. He will always be dumped on by fanbases who have been misled by advanced stats and yet will always be screaming that they need defensive D to succeed. No one in NHL management for any team and not a single player in the NHL who should care what the advanced stats crowd thinks about anything. He will be fine and well paid next year when he chooses a team next year that is out of spot light.

That is your opinion and it is fine. I disagree with it. I don't go off of advanced stats. I go off of watching these guys live at games. Ceci does some things very well as does Barrie but overall both need massive shelter. You just can't have too many guys like that in a lineup and win. And neither guy will get what he thinks he is worth next year. I see both of them sitting and taking less, much like Gards, next year.

 

[biotk]

That is your opinion and it is fine. I disagree with it. I don't go off of advanced stats. I go off of watching these guys live at games. Ceci does some things very well as does Barrie but overall both need massive shelter. You just can't have too many guys like that in a lineup and win. And neither guy will get what he thinks he is worth next year. I see both of them sitting and taking less, much like Gards, next year.

Ceci was not sheltered at all. That is not an opinion.

 

[zeke]

The good news is that with Muzzin-Holl taking the toughest matchups now (and handling them very well), both ceci and barrie will both be in smaller and easier roles than they've been in for most of the season - and most of their careers. They will both likely be splitting #4/#5 dman duties (based on situational usage), which is by far the lowest they've been slotted in any lineup in years.

 

[FraumBallard]

Wrong support players? Can absolutely agree there. AHL players? No, definitely not.

Okay.
I'm good with that.
Fair point.
They could be valuable trade chips.
We'll see what Dubas thinks.

 

[Zybalto]

The good news is that with Muzzin-Holl taking the toughest matchups now (and handling them very well), both ceci and barrie will both be in smaller and easier roles than they've been in for most of the season - and most of their careers. They will both likely be splitting #4/#5 dman duties (based on situational usage), which is by far the lowest they've been slotted in any lineup in years.

As much as I was hoping for a return for the healthy D pairings that went on a run after Keefe took over, Keefe does seems to be going this way:

Muzzin/Holl -One of the better shutdown tandems this season.
Rielly/Ceci - Healthy Rielly and lesser QoC may make this combo dominant against 2nd lines while holding their own against first lines to give Muzzin/Holl a break when needed.
Dermott/Barrie - Dominant offensive 3rd pairing to feast on the other teams 3rd/4th lines

Throw Barrie out with Rielly to catch teams by surprise with their 4th lines out or when pushing for a goal and give him decent minutes on the PP
Throw Ceci out to close out games with Muzzin and have them both out there on the top PK unit of course.

So basically the 4/5 duties you are predicting as well as maximizing their strengths.

 

[4thline]

The good news is that with Muzzin-Holl taking the toughest matchups now (and handling them very well), both ceci and barrie will both be in smaller and easier roles than they've been in for most of the season - and most of their careers. They will both likely be splitting #4/#5 dman duties (based on situational usage), which is by far the lowest they've been slotted in any lineup in years.

The impact of Holl's emergence (if he can keep it up) on our playoff D group is so underrated.

If we run
Rielly-Ceci
Muzzin-Holl
Dermott-Barrie

we've got two pairs that are more than adequate in matchup minutes. Two pairs like that allows them to share the load, making the matchup game much easier and setting the table for a 3rd pair that can absolutely crush sheltered minutes.

Or we could go
Muzzin-Holl
Rielly-Barrie
Dermott-Ceci

lean hard on Muzzin-Holl in the matchup role, use Dermott-Ceci somewhat defensively and Rielly-Barrie to carry the game at the other team.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Hyman Matthews Marner
Mikyeyev Tavares Nylander
Kerfoot Spezza Kapanen
Clifford Gauthier Engvall


Rielly Ceci
Muzzin Holl
Dermott Barrie

 

[kb]

The impact of Holl's emergence (if he can keep it up) on our playoff D group is so underrated.

If we run
Rielly-Ceci
Muzzin-Holl
Dermott-Barrie

we've got two pairs that are more than adequate in matchup minutes. Two pairs like that allows them to share the load, making the matchup game much easier and setting the table for a 3rd pair that can absolutely crush sheltered minutes.

Or we could go
Muzzin-Holl
Rielly-Barrie
Dermott-Ceci

lean hard on Muzzin-Holl in the matchup role, use Dermott-Ceci somewhat defensively and Rielly-Barrie to carry the game at the other team.

I like the first set of combos best, but with Muzzin - Holl doing the heavy lifting in the matchup role. That would leave Rielly - Ceci to face the occasional tough matchup, but for the most part would allow Rielly to do Rielly things - a healthy Rielly. That 3rd pair should be able to do a lot of damage with Dermott having a coming out party of sorts in the last 20-25 games, and Barrie put up 34 points in his last 49 games.

I actually like their chances now that everyone is healthy and ready.

 

[zeke]

With the way Dermott played at the end there I've tossed around the idea of a Dermott-ceci "secondary shutdown" pairing, leaving rielly-barrie to dominant even easier matchups.....but when I think about it that really just ends up with Rielly getting less ice time, which is only a bad thing, even if dermott has improved.

So yeah i lean towards rielly-ceci as a pair keefe can use in defensive zone starts without worrying too much, and then sub in barrie when it's an o-zone start, especially against a non-1st line.

 

[zeke]

The impact of Holl's emergence (if he can keep it up) on our playoff D group is so underrated.

If we run
Rielly-Ceci
Muzzin-Holl
Dermott-Barrie

we've got two pairs that are more than adequate in matchup minutes. Two pairs like that allows them to share the load, making the matchup game much easier and setting the table for a 3rd pair that can absolutely crush sheltered minutes.

Or we could go
Muzzin-Holl
Rielly-Barrie
Dermott-Ceci

lean hard on Muzzin-Holl in the matchup role, use Dermott-Ceci somewhat defensively and Rielly-Barrie to carry the game at the other team.

There's always the worry with Holl's lack of track record, but given his all around skillset, and that his play has just continued getting better the tougher the usage, and dubas' faith in his minor league performance....I'm feeling pretty comfortable with him in that role.

There's really no glaring weakness to worry about....and indeed the only actual worry spot with him simply comes down to Mike Babcock deciding to never play him, despite having a right side of Hainsey/Zaitsev/Polak (at best).

Kinda gets me angry again thinking Babs let us have such a horrid right side when he had this guy here the whole time and never even gave him a chance.

 

[kb]

Take this with a truckload of salt but.....if so, good.

 

[crump]

Ceci for all his warts was a welcome back addition when the options were Marincin Rosen or calling up Gravel due to injuries. Still I think the Penalty Kill was best with him and Muzzin on it.

We’ll see who is in shape and has their mind working to determine who plays I think. Don’t have much time to wait for people to catch up. All that being equal....Sandin and Dermott battle it out for the last spot.

Rielly (1st PP-2nd PK) - Ceci (1PK)
Muzzin (1PK). - Holl (2nd (PK)
Dermott/Sandin - Barrie (2nd PP)

 

[Koolboss]

Wait. Kinda thought that any third line without Kadri - and with Kerfoot - was as good as any 2nd line

Huh.

Corrected

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Ceci for all his warts was a welcome back addition when the options were Marincin Rosen or calling up Gravel due to injuries. Still I think the Penalty Kill was best with him and Muzzin on it.

We’ll see who is in shape and has their mind working to determine who plays I think. Don’t have much time to wait for people to catch up. All that being equal....Sandin and Dermott battle it out for the last spot.

Rielly (1st PP-2nd PK) - Ceci (1PK)
Muzzin (1PK). - Holl (2nd (PK)
Dermott/Sandin - Barrie (2nd PP)

Ceci on the first pair was horrible. He was actually pretty decent on the third pair with Dermott though. Rielly and Barrie were pretty good together too.

I would go:

Muzzin-Holl-shutdown pair.
Rielly-Barrie-ozs and high 5 on 5 minutes
Dermott-Ceci -fill in gaps

 

[ShaneFalco]

Take this with a truckload of salt but.....if so, good.

He would add a needed dimension