Lineup as of now with caphit??

[Suntouchable13]

We've got $6.6 mil cap space including Nathan Horton's cap hit. And a further $5.3m to play with as Horton is on Long-term Injury Reserve (LTIR). LOL.

I don't understand what Leafs management is trying to accomplish.

1) If you want to bring in vets to make it hard for the prospects to compete for a roster spot, you can say good bye to Auston Matthews. Making our team more competitive reduces our chance of drafting 1st overall. Some people are saying this is a 60 point team. But it seriously isn't. This team is going to surprise people. A bunch of hungry cheap vets on 1-2 year contracts that provide value and have something to prove.

2) If you want to make the team competitive, the Leafs could have done a much better job in free agency. We have so much cap space. We could have spent more to get better (but still reasonably priced) vets on 1-2 year deals.

It seems to me like the Leafs aren't going all-in into anything. They're not committing to anything. They're just doing things half-assed. They aren't going all-in competitively. Nor are they going all-in with the tanking.

You can't have a team full of rookies. Although, I do think that this team is too veteran heavy for a supposedly rebuilding team.

 

[ScJeff]

We've got $6.6 mil cap space including Nathan Horton's cap hit. And a further $5.3m to play with as Horton is on Long-term Injury Reserve (LTIR). LOL.

I don't understand what Leafs management is trying to accomplish.

1) If you want to bring in vets to make it hard for the prospects to compete for a roster spot, you can say good bye to Auston Matthews. Making our team more competitive reduces our chance of drafting 1st overall. Some people are saying this is a 60 point team. But it seriously isn't. This team is going to surprise people. A bunch of hungry cheap vets on 1-2 year contracts that provide value and have something to prove. Our defense is still mostly the same (Phaneuf, Gardiner, Rielly, Polak, Robidas, Brennan are all back. Marincin and Hunwick are the only changes) but a lot of changes were made up front (P-A Parenteau, Nick Spaling, Mark Arcobello, Shawn Matthias, Taylor Beck. Daniel Winnik is back and he was one of the guys on our roster last year who was actually making our team better). And we've got a new coach in Mike Babcock. And the management culture has changed. Gone are Burke and Nonis and their old assistants.

2) If you want to make the team competitive, the Leafs could have done a much better job in free agency. We have so much cap space. We could have spent more to get better (but still reasonably priced) vets on 1-2 year deals.

It seems to me like the Leafs aren't going all-in into anything. They're not committing to anything. They're just doing things half-assed. They aren't going all-in competitively. Nor are they going all-in with the tanking.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/free-agency

What player who signed a 1-2 year deal on that list would you have prefered? keep in mind they have a choice where they sign its not just money, and we want deals that are tradeable. We want to be a proper hockey team not a ****show to build the proper atmosphere and work ethic.

Oduya? Williams? Horcoff? Probably wouldnt concider us he wants to win.
Vermette basicly went back where he wanted.
Chris Stewart? MAYBE but i dont really want him near our team.
Id concider Brodziak but dont think hes an upgrade over Mathias (he was cheaper) and i think he went to a contender by choice.

I think we did a good job adding competition and giving us some chips to try and turn into assets at the deadline.

 

[likeabosski]

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/free-agency

What player who signed a 1-2 year deal on that list would you have prefered? keep in mind they have a choice where they sign its not just money, and we want deals that are tradeable. We want to be a proper hockey team not a ****show to build the proper atmosphere and work ethic.

Oduya? Williams? Horcoff? Probably wouldnt concider us he wants to win.
Vermette basicly went back where he wanted.
Chris Stewart? MAYBE but i dont really want him near our team.
Id concider Brodziak but dont think hes an upgrade over Mathias (he was cheaper) and i think he went to a contender by choice.

I think we did a good job adding competition and giving us some chips to try and turn into assets at the deadline.

Did Oduya (Dallas), Williams (Washington) and Horcoff (Anaheim) all say they wanted to sign with contenders?

Justin Williams for $3.25m per for 2 years seems like good value for him. And would have been one of the guys I would have wanted to target in free agency if I knew he was available at that price and that term. Though I have a feeling he might be overrated by his fans on the internet (he's a good Corsi player). His goalscoring rate in the past 3 seasons is on the level of a second-liner. Which is good because we need another Top 6 guy. But only 44% of his assists on the 5v5 are first-assists. The rest are secondary assists. That is a red flag to me. An average Top 6 forward has a first assist rate of 60-62%. His assist rate is good. But it's padded with secondary assists. His first assist rate is somewhere between a third-liner and a fourth-liner. Secondary assists have very low predictability from year-to-year for forwards while first assists have almost as high of a predictability as goals from year-to-year. So secondary assists are way more random for forwards and not indicative of player skill. Therefore they are a lot less important than first assists for forwards.

In terms of Corsi and goal differential in the past three seasons, the stats suggest he's worth the contract. He has a reputation for being a great two-way forward and driving possession. But driving possession doesn't mean much if you're not making plays or scoring goals (Justin Williams does only one of those two things well). At any rate, $3.25m/yr for 2 years seems quite fair for Justin Williams. I see Justin Williams as more of a third-liner whose responsible in his own end and can provide second-line upside on the goalscoring front.

 

[senor martinez]

Remember y'all that with Michael Babcock behind the wheel he might do our first line a whole different scenario now.
He might like that first line center being that defensive forward type. So the only way to go then would be JVR - Komarov - Winnik/different sucker

Komarov can play the first line unit. He was on our first line center one time last season in one of our horrible games we had. kommy also has done it in the KHL and there he scored the most points of that team playing a full season on that first line center role. He was the best player of one of the best teams in the skilly KHL league. Komarov scored the most points in one of the best teams in the KHL. What does that tell us and babcock? Komarov can play that two way game in the first line. With still scoring points with the best players.

Komarov would be a dream come true playoff first liner for us. Like that bryan trottier type of stanley cup action two way hockey you heard me.

 

[Menzinger]

I like him as a player but Komarov is nothing more than an NHL 3rd liner at his best.

His NHL stats don't suggest anything else than that

 

[Gary Nylund]

Remember y'all that with Michael Babcock behind the wheel he might do our first line a whole different scenario now.
He might like that first line center being that defensive forward type. So the only way to go then would be JVR - Komarov - Winnik/different sucker

Komarov can play the first line unit. He was on our first line center one time last season in one of our horrible games we had. kommy also has done it in the KHL and there he scored the most points of that team playing a full season on that first line center role. He was the best player of one of the best teams in the skilly KHL league. Komarov scored the most points in one of the best teams in the KHL. What does that tell us and babcock? Komarov can play that two way game in the first line. With still scoring points with the best players.

Komarov would be a dream come true playoff first liner for us. Like that bryan trottier type of stanley cup action two way hockey you heard me.

LOL what? I'm speechless.

 

[senor martinez]

LOL what? I'm speechless.

I know right, he could really do us good in the playoffs when our time is. Komarov has playyed that first line role all season long with the best team in the KHL league. That's a league they have in russia. Some think its clearly the best league in the world right after the NHL league. It's interesting. If a komarov can play the whole long season first line there, why couldn't he dominate here in the NHL: That two way game and role. He would still score a lot just like in the KHL. He was the best scorer there then and they still won a lot. Some action jackson like carl weathers back in the big days.

 

[senor martinez]

I like him as a player but Komarov is nothing more than an NHL 3rd liner at his best.

His NHL stats don't suggest anything else than that

I know right, he hasn't gotten the right chance yet. Not yet say they in the gladiator film with russel crowe... not yet". But yeah he would score a lot with the right guys just like in the russia league. Kommy played that first line hero there the whole season and scored the most points there. He played with suckers too. He can do that here also. Still be that hitting hero y'all already know.

 

[Diatomic]

I know right, he could really do us good in the playoffs when our time is. Komarov has playyed that first line role all season long with the best team in the KHL league. That's a league they have in russia. Some think its clearly the best league in the world right after the NHL league. It's interesting. If a komarov can play the whole long season first line there, why couldn't he dominate here in the NHL: That two way game and role. He would still score a lot just like in the KHL. He was the best scorer there then and they still won a lot. Some action jackson like carl weathers back in the big days.

Komarov is not an NHL top 6 player. He plays his role as a checker very well and that's where he's best suited going forward.

 

[senor martinez]

Komarov is not an NHL top 6 player. He plays his role as a checker very well and that's where he's best suited going forward.

I think he clearly is and Babcock might think so too. Just like they did in the KHL where they said komarov might explode big time with the first lines in the nHL too.

But yeah come playoff time komarov would serve us greatly. Remember that two way hockey is way more important than like the way kessel and JVR play the game. That's one dimensional. Komarov thinks two ways and speaks seven languages.

 

[Diatomic]

I think he clearly is and Babcock might think so too. Just like they did in the KHL where they said komarov might explode big time with the first lines in the nHL too.

But yeah come playoff time komarov would serve us greatly. Remember that two way hockey is way more important than like the way kessel and JVR play the game. That's one dimensional. Komarov thinks two ways and speaks seven languages.

When you think of 1st line wingers does komarov come to mind?

 

[senor martinez]

When you think of 1st line wingers does komarov come to mind?

No sir. Only the center thing. He can do it both ways then. As a winger... not at all. Should be center from the beginning, just like in russua he was the whole season and still scored the most points.

Babcock might try something real spectacular with komarov next season be warned y'all. Babcock really studies the game at the same time and he knows what kommy did back in russia... that might work out with us too y'all never know.

 

[TheProspector]

I know right, he could really do us good in the playoffs when our time is. Komarov has playyed that first line role all season long with the best team in the KHL league. That's a league they have in russia. Some think its clearly the best league in the world right after the NHL league. It's interesting. If a komarov can play the whole long season first line there, why couldn't he dominate here in the NHL: That two way game and role. He would still score a lot just like in the KHL. He was the best scorer there then and they still won a lot. Some action jackson like carl weathers back in the big days.

No, not even close. He's not even a second liner. He's not even a particularly talented 3rd liner.

 

[senor martinez]

No, not even close. He's not even a second liner. He's not even a particularly talented 3rd liner.

Oh no no no... not at all like that sir. These are just stats, this is hockey and I have evidence from russia that Komarov can play a first line role the WHOLE season long. And still score more points than anybody with one of the best teams in the league then. (He was their first line center.)

So yeah, given the chance in the NHL he would do the same thing and still play that selke type of defensive game. Trottier type.

You only have calculations and stats, Komarov has never given the chance in the nhl, yet. "Not yet" they said in the gladiator film. Not yet... but wait and see. Babcock is the coach and he'll decide. Not us.

 

[TheProspector]

Oh no no no... not at all like that sir. These are just stats, this is hockey and I have evidence from russia that Komarov can play a first line role the WHOLE season long. And still score more points than anybody with one of the best teams in the league then. (He was their first line center.)

So yeah, given the chance in the NHL he would do the same thing and still play that selke type of defensive game. Trottier type.

You only have calculations and stats, Komarov has never given the chance in the nhl, yet. "Not yet" they said in the gladiator film. Not yet... but wait and see. Babcock is the coach and he'll decide. Not us.

No, if he really were a better player, but just wasn't given the right icetime, it would show up in these stats. The whole point to these measurements is to see through usage, actually.

And when it comes to his KHL performance, there's around a 0.8x coefficient on productivity. Apply that to his most recent and best season (34P in 52GP): 34/52 * 0.8 * 82 = 43 points. So, no, his KHL production is not at all consistent with a 1st line NHLer. It's about that of a 3rd liner. His actual performance last year was at a 35P pace. So he's even underperformed that.

Komarov is not even a 2nd liner on any decent team in the NHL.

 

[RayNibbs]

 

[RyanOhReally]

Looking at Hunwick, it seems like management saw him as a player who will compete for the last spot on the roster, hoping he cracks the line up. If he doesn't, well then the Marlies get another top AHL defenceman alongside TJ Brennan.

So it's either him at the 6/7 with Robidas, or it's Loov, Percy, Harrington or Granberg if he can be healthy by then. Not a bad situation.

Outside of not having a #1 defenceman, we have:

#2/3 - Dion Phaneuf
#3/4 - Jake Gardiner
#3/4 - Morgan Rielly
#4/5 - Roman Polak
#5/6 - Martin Marincin
#6/7 - Stephane Robidas
#6/7 - Matt Hunwick/Viktor Lööv/Stuart Percy/Scott Harrington/Petter Granberg

Not TOO bad of a defence. With extra focus on defensive and possession play in Babcock's system, maybe players move up a spot or two through development/proper scheme fitting. I think Babs is gonna love Dion. When he is on, he is on. He hits like a truck and has a ridiculously hard shot. When he isn't though, he misses assignments and can't hit the broad side of a barn with his shot. Hopefully the game gets simplified for him.

 

[senor martinez]

No, if he really were a better player, but just wasn't given the right icetime, it would show up in these stats. The whole point to these measurements is to see through usage, actually.

And when it comes to his KHL performance, there's around a 0.8x coefficient on productivity. Apply that to his most recent and best season (34P in 52GP): 34/52 * 0.8 * 82 = 43 points. So, no, his KHL production is not at all consistent with a 1st line NHLer. It's about that of a 3rd liner. His actual performance last year was at a 35P pace. So he's even underperformed that.

Komarov is not even a 2nd liner on any decent team in the NHL.

Nah nah nah man.. Given the chance there are some rare players that would do that scoring while defending just like he DID in the KHL league. (world's second best league after the NHL league). That there some cold rock solid type of action you heard me. But we is not tripping over that, I'ma see to it. Babcock might put that sucker out there on the first line unit for a long ass time. Then we'll see it just like they did in the KHL league. Komarov played the whole season on the first line center.

 

[PuckMagi]

I think our best forwards last year were Winnik, Santorelli, and Komorov (and I'd add Kadri to that list but I think he can get better still). Holland I think did pretty well all things considered (like playing with Clarkson).

None of those three (Winnik, Santorelli, and Komorov) are the most talented, or the most skilled. But I think they probably worked the hardest out there and that's what made the difference.

Loading your top 6 up with all your skill players, and having all your bottom 6 players be grinders isn't necessarily the optimal strategy.

If our top line is going up against someone else's top line, maybe we want a guy like Komorov or Winnik on there who can actually play some defense and shut them down. We can't have our top line be a -34 or whatever across the board.

I think we'll make the playoffs this coming year, but even I'll admit that we can't match skill for skill yet against a lot of other teams in the league right now. JVR - Bozak - Kessel got crushed last year and we can't have our top line be that big a minus again. So I think our advantage will come from the fact that we've finally got enough legit NHL players that we can run 4 lines on offense and have 6 good defenders every game. We'll have to win by working harder and using our depth by rolling 4 lines... keeping shifts short... and getting production from everyone in the lineup. Ultimately it will take some good performances by our goalies too... but I'm not too concerned about who's "top 6" and "bottom 6" or whatever. By not having, Kessel, Clarkson, Franson, and Trevor Smith in our lineup... we are already dramatically improved over last season because I think they were our worst players when it came to helping or hurting the Leafs chances of winning games.

 

[senor martinez]

I think our best forwards last year were Winnik, Santorelli, and Komorov (and I'd add Kadri to that list but I think he can get better still).

None of those three are the most talented, or the most skilled. But I think they probably worked the hardest out there and that's what made the difference.

Loading your top 6 up with all your skill players, and having all your bottom 6 players be grinders isn't necessarily the optimal strategy.

If our top line is going up against someone else's top line, maybe we want a guy like Komorov or Winnik on there who can actually play some defense and shut them down. We can't have our top line be a -34 or whatever across the board.

I think we'll make the playoffs this coming year, but even I'll admit that we can't match skill for skill yet against a lot of other teams in the league right now. JVR - Bozak - Kessel got crushed last year and we can't have our top line be that big a minus again. So I think our advantage will come from the fact that we've finally got enough legit NHL players that we can run 4 lines on offense and have 6 good defenders every game. We'll have to win by working harder and using our depth by rolling 4 lines... keeping shifts short... and getting production from everyone in the lineup. Ultimately it will take some good performances by our goalies too... but I'm not too concerned about who's "top 6" and "bottom 6" or whatever. By not having, Kessel, Clarkson, Franson, and Trevor Smith in our lineup... we are already dramatically improved over last season because I think they were our worst players when it came to helping or hurting the Leafs winning games.

Oh yeah, you got it exactly the correct way, sir. I think those three were our three top forwards too. Clearly.

Putting Komarov between some skilly players on the first line makes our defensive game stronger and just like Komarov proved in russia he can LEAD the whole team. He scored a lot of points while playing in the first line center and still played that leading defense game. Komarov was the team's best scoring man. Kommy would lead the league also in hits if playing in the first line everything is indicating just that.

We might want to play the game with Komarov making our first line more solid hitting wise and defensively. Let's see what coach babcock chooses to do so.

 

[likeabosski]

I have my doubts as to whether "defensively responsible" Leo Komarov would make much of a difference to that first line compared to an offensive-minded guy like Phil Kessel.

If you look at the long-term goal differential data, it's basically a "wash" between the two. With Komarov, the team's GF/60 rate goes down 0.20/60 mins. But their GA/60 rate improves by 0.31/60 mins. Making him a net +0.11 GD/60 mins to the team.

With Kessel, the team's GF/60 rate goes up +0.43 GF/60. But the GA/60 is 0.33/60 mins worse with Kessel. Making him a net +0.1 GD/60 mins to his team. Basically a wash between the two of them.

If you need to score a goal, you put Kessel in. If you need to defend a lead or your team is taking a defensive zone face-off, you put Komarov in.

I wish fans would stop blaming Phil Kessel for this team's woes. Phil Kessel is a gifted player. A gifted player that needs to sheltered by a good Top 4 D-Core and a two-way first-line centre. Wingers are the least defensively responsible position in hockey. There are plenty of scoring wingers on the first-line or Top 6 who aren't good at defense.

Phil Kessel has one -34 and people lose their minds.

A first-line forward should have a better goal differential than a third-line forward on average at any rate. But I bet if you looked at every defensively bad team in the NHL (the Leafs 5v5 GA/60 rate is the 3rd worst in the last 3 seasons), their first-line's goal differential isn't going to be too hot either. Phil Kessel used to be a + player in Boston at one point. That's what you get when you play with a great Top 4 D-Core and a defensively responsible first-line centre and a solid goaltender.

Offensive skill is easier to measure in hockey with statistics. If you don't score a lot of goals and assists (esp first assists) (ie. Tyler Bozak) per 60 minutes 5v5 (a lot of guys pad their stats with the power-play) either it means that you're not very skilled or you are being over-shadowed by other players on your line (it can be difficult to tell with someone like Tyler Bozak because he's played with the same guys mostly for the past 3 seasons). Or it could be that your team mates' suck (it's very easy to check for that). If you score a lot of goals and assists, it could be skill (first assists are especially more indicative of skill than secondary assists for forwards). Or it could be that you are being carried by more skilled players on your line.

But defense is more tricky to evaluate with statistics. Because defense is more about teamwork and "systems" than individual skill. If you're not good at defense as a scoring winger, you can still put up a good goals against/60 rate and +/- if you have help from your Top 4 D, your centre and your goaltender. But if your team's Top 4 D is weak, if your centre is not good at defense and your goaltending isn't up there, your goals against rate is going to be terrible.

Leo Komarov (2013 and 2014-15)
% of Team 5v5 TOI: 24.98% (1219:59/4883:50)
% of Team 5v5 GF: 22.75% (43/189)
% of Team 5v5 GA: 22.07% (47/213)
Komarov's GF/60: 2.12
Komarov's GA/60: 2.31
Komarov's GD/60: -0.19
Team's GF/60: 2.32
Team's GA/60: 2.62
Team's GD/60: -0.30

Phil Kessel (2013, 2013-14 and 2014-15)
% of Team 5v5 TOI: 32.23% (3237:51/10046:05)
% of Team 5v5 GF: 38.34% (148/386)
% of Team 5v5 GA: 36.36% (156/429)
Kessel's GF/60: 2.74
Kessel's GA/60: 2.89
Kessel's GD/60: -0.15
Team's GF/60: 2.31
Team's GA/60: 2.56
Team's GD/60: -0.25

Here's Leo Komarov's individual 5v5 production stats as well for reference

2012-15
5v5 TOI 11:43/GP (below-average 3rd liner)

5v5 Individual Production
G/60 0.54 (above-average 4th liner)
FA/60 0.49 (below-average 3rd liner)
PP/60 1.03 (below-average 3rd liner)
A/60 0.93 (below-average 2nd liner)
P/60 1.48 (above-average 3rd liner)

 

[FutureGM44]

Almost a guarantee they won't. The new mandate is to develop through minor leagues/AHL.

Won't see Nylander till he's 22 or 23 years old, same with Marner.

22 or 23 is pushing it, 4 or 5 years after being drafted? for a lot of players yes, marner no chance, nylander, unlikely

 

[APV]

Oh yeah, you got it exactly the correct way, sir. I think those three were our three top forwards too. Clearly.

Putting Komarov between some skilly players on the first line makes our defensive game stronger and just like Komarov proved in russia he can LEAD the whole team. He scored a lot of points while playing in the first line center and still played that leading defense game. Komarov was the team's best scoring man. Kommy would lead the league also in hits if playing in the first line everything is indicating just that.

We might want to play the game with Komarov making our first line more solid hitting wise and defensively. Let's see what coach babcock chooses to do so.

Lol this guy is a funny poster but he has to be the biggest troll on our board. But i say that respectfully.

 

[dballislife2]

man these lineup projections suck lol, we're horrible

i'd be shocked if nylander, kasperi, brown and gauthier dont see about 10...maybe even 20-30 games in the nhl...which will be okay for them

they really dont have to beat out much talent to make the team

 

[BlueBaron]

man these lineup projections suck lol, we're horrible

i'd be shocked if nylander, kasperi, brown and gauthier dont see about 10...maybe even 20-30 games in the nhl...which will be okay for them

they really dont have to beat out much talent to make the team

Prepare to be shocked, or you could just listen to what management has been saying.