And when was this?
Does have even have half a season over his full career where he is given first line responsibilities?
Lineup as of now with caphit??
- Thread starter budzz
- Start date
And when was this?
Does have even have half a season over his full career where he is given first line responsibilities?
I wouldn't call Daniel Winnik a "no talent" vet. That is absurd. Winnik is a great playmaker. He's not your typical lunch pail grinder/penalty killer/good 'ol Canadian boy.
His goal-scoring ability is on the level of a below-average fourth liner. But Winnik's primary point and point production on the 5v5 is in line with second liners. He gets lots of first-assists. He is an underrated playmaker. He doesn't play on the power-play. That's why his points total on his stats sheet don't look that hot.
With Lupul injured, Winnik played a lot on the second line for us last season. He was great. Due to his poor goalscoring ability, Winnik needs to play with guys who can score goals. Over the last 3 seasons, Daniel Winnik has played with guys who can score goals. This is why he gets lots of assists. Especially first assists. So he's not a passenger. He gets involved in his team's offense. Secondary assists by forwards often times (but not always) don't involve a whole lot of playmaking ability. By a defenseman, secondary assists are more indicative of setting up a nice play.
Panik has more power-play upside. But on the 5v5, his production is atrocious. 0.53 goals/60 in the last 3 seasons, 0.80 primary points/60, 1.07 points/60. Only half of his assists are primary assists. And in the last season (2014-15) he had 0.55 goals/60, 0.86 primary points/60, 1.02 points/60. So it's not like Panik sucked before he joined the Leafs and now all of a sudden he's great.
I don't know where people are getting that Panik is a young offensive phenom. He's 24 years old winger. He's played 151 NHL games (3 seasons). He was put on waivers by Tampa Bay for a reason.
How Winnik Compares to First Liners
On the 5v5 in 2012-15 (3 yrs) he ranks
63rd/Top 90 NHL fws in Primary Points/60 (1.27)
89th/Top 90 NHL fws in Goals/60 (0.44)
68th/Top 90 NHL fws in Points/60 (1.69).
How Winnik Compares to Top 6 Forwards
... 106th/Top 180 NHL fws in Primary Points/60
100th/Top 180 NHL fws in Points/60
170th/Top 180 NHL fws in Goals/60
How Winnik Compares to Top 9 Forwards
132nd/Top 270 NHL fws in Primary Points/60
123rd/Top 270 NHL fws in Points/60
240th/Top 270 NHL fws in Goals/60
How Winnik Compares to Top 12 Forwards
154th/Top 360 NHL fws in Primary Points/60
140th/Top 360 NHL fws in Points/60
306th/Top 360 NHL fws in Goals/60
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Pyrophorus
Registered User
I agree.
I think Avs and Habs fans were right about this guy.
I do want him in to score his 15ish goals, but I think he'll be finding sometime in the pressbox.
Arcobello, Beck, Matthias, might be better suited on the 1st line, if you don't want Lupul there.
Parenteau had a 5.9% 5v5 shooting percentage last season. But averaged 11% in the last three seasons... Shooting % is a very volatile statistic because goals are infrequent events in hockey (compared to Corsi). You can't look at a guy's shooting percentage one season and conclude that he's washed up. His shooting % will likely bounce back up. Putting him in the press box is crazy. Even last season, his primary assist rate was pretty solid. Even when he wasn't lighting the lamp up a lot, he was providing playmaking value to his team. There's a reason why his on-ice shooting % didn't degrade as much as his individual shooting % last season.
If you are worried about Parenteau's shooting so much, put him on a line with good goalscorers who are weak in the playmaking department. He will get a lot of primary assists. When his shooting % rebounds, he will gain confidence and then you can put him on another line.
The problem with the ordinary hockey fan is that they will look at a guy's goals and points and games played. And if they determine that his goal/gp and points/gp rate is low, they will automatically conclude that he sucks and should be on the bottom 6 if he's good at defense or in the press box. But Parenteau is experiencing a goal-scoring slump and he sucks on the power-play. That's why her per game rates are low. And a large chunk of his assists are primary assists. Which are the more important type of assist for a forward. His assist totals are not padded with secondary assists, like a lot of forwards.
I would take Parenteau off the power-play unit. And play him in the Top 6 5v5. He's only making $1.5 million/yr. It's not a big deal if he's not on special teams.
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RyanOhReally
Registered User
Trial #2
JVR - Kadri - Lupul
Matthias - Bozak - Paranteau
Winnik - Holland - Panik
Komarov/Leivo - Spaling - Beck
Arcobello - Carrick/Frattin
Gardiner - Phaneuf
Rielly - Polak
Marincin - Robidas
Hunwick
Bernier
Reimer
Ive been very skeptical of this team lately (More like the last 8 months) but after actually looking at it written down, with Babcock as Head Coach in mind, this team is actually looking a lot better than last year.
JVR is a first line LW. He may not be a star, but he is definitely a Top line talent. Babcock will break him when it comes to defence, so that isn't an issue. Kadri is looking like he is in top shape and with an improved role and extra minutes, should put up to 55-60 points. And having Lupul on his off (Although positionally correct) side may seem like a bad idea, it could be the change that he needs. If he is better suited of the LW after all is said and done, then maybe Paranteau moves up, Matthias moves down and Winnik moves up to the 2nd line RW.
Lines 2-4 are all very solid in my books. Matthias might not score at an 18 goal clip, but he should pot 12-15 with 2nd lines minutes and establish himself as a Babcock favourite with his size and skill. Bozak is a 2C. People overreact when they talk about him, he isn't as bad as people think. Yeah Bozak didn't score when Kessel went cold, but the same could be same about the entire team and that is no reflection on ONE player. He'll bounce back. And Paranteau should also bounce back considering that shooting % is like that. One year its at 5% and the other it's 20%. He could have a 15-20 goal season if all goes well.
Winnik, Holland, and Panik will be much of what we saw this past year, but slightly improved. I think Holland Panik could be mainstays on this roster over the next few years and both could strive under Babcock. They're 6'1"-6'2", 210lbs and have great hands and work ethics. I like it. Winnik is Winnik. He is this years Leo Komarov.
Hopefully Komarov can play, if he even can, at his top pesky level that we love. If not, whether legal issues or otherwise, than Leivo is an exceptionally talented replacement. Great size, great compete, solid skill level. There's a reason why he's been one of our top prospects for the last 4 years. Spaling is more of the same for this team. Great 4th line guy who will work hard every shift of every game. Was brought up by Barry Trotz over in Nashville so you know his defence is good. Beck is the same. He's very underrated and could be a Maple Leaf for the next 10 years. Or he could be gone by March, who knows really.
Arcobello has the potential to make Bozak expendable believe it or not. Everyone who has watched this guy raves about him. Its upsetting that he had to get moved around so much last year, but his numbers for the season were stupid good for his situation. And Carrick and Frattin will fight it out for the 14th forward spot. If Frattin loses, which he more than likely will, then he'll be dumped for like a 2017 7th or something. Not because he isn't good, but because we have too much depth above him and below him to really do anything with him. Story of his career since the lockout season playoff injury. Carrick will most likely captain the Marlies if he loses the battle.
Now looking at defence. Phaneuf will be Babcock's special project. I really hope he can make something happen there. Luckily, he likes to play the right side. Gardiner performed, in advanced statistics anyway, like a top pairing defenceman. Lets see if it actually means anything. Rielly is Rielly, still given the space to grow now being fresh off of an actually noticeable season for him personally. If Gardiner flops, he'll be given the go ahead and hopefully hits the ground running. Polak is sort of just placed here out of him being a RD, and better than Robidas. He's freakishly strong and has good leaderships skills. Marincin could be the steal of the draft, despite being acquired through trade. Great size, good skill level. Lets see if he can together without becoming another nobody that we thought was something. Robidas and Hunwick will split time as the 6/7 Dmen.
Bernier and Reimer are Bernier and Reimer. Both so far seem more like lucrative back ups being thrusted into a starter role. I see Bernier as the favourite to excel but lets not forget that Reimer can be freakishly good at times. If they get a better defence in front of them, which they should under Babcock, then their numbers should improve.
So looking at it, if all things go according to plan, which sometimes they do, we could compete for a playoff spot (likely not getting it). If only some things work out, look for a 5-10 Overall spot in the draft. And if its another flop, then Jakob Chyrchun here we come. All that we can really say is that this team will most definitely compete, which is all I want.
JVR - Kadri - Lupul
Matthias - Bozak - Paranteau
Winnik - Holland - Panik
Komarov/Leivo - Spaling - Beck
Arcobello - Carrick/Frattin
Gardiner - Phaneuf
Rielly - Polak
Marincin - Robidas
Hunwick
Bernier
Reimer
Ive been very skeptical of this team lately (More like the last 8 months) but after actually looking at it written down, with Babcock as Head Coach in mind, this team is actually looking a lot better than last year.
JVR is a first line LW. He may not be a star, but he is definitely a Top line talent. Babcock will break him when it comes to defence, so that isn't an issue. Kadri is looking like he is in top shape and with an improved role and extra minutes, should put up to 55-60 points. And having Lupul on his off (Although positionally correct) side may seem like a bad idea, it could be the change that he needs. If he is better suited of the LW after all is said and done, then maybe Paranteau moves up, Matthias moves down and Winnik moves up to the 2nd line RW.
Lines 2-4 are all very solid in my books. Matthias might not score at an 18 goal clip, but he should pot 12-15 with 2nd lines minutes and establish himself as a Babcock favourite with his size and skill. Bozak is a 2C. People overreact when they talk about him, he isn't as bad as people think. Yeah Bozak didn't score when Kessel went cold, but the same could be same about the entire team and that is no reflection on ONE player. He'll bounce back. And Paranteau should also bounce back considering that shooting % is like that. One year its at 5% and the other it's 20%. He could have a 15-20 goal season if all goes well.
Winnik, Holland, and Panik will be much of what we saw this past year, but slightly improved. I think Holland Panik could be mainstays on this roster over the next few years and both could strive under Babcock. They're 6'1"-6'2", 210lbs and have great hands and work ethics. I like it. Winnik is Winnik. He is this years Leo Komarov.
Hopefully Komarov can play, if he even can, at his top pesky level that we love. If not, whether legal issues or otherwise, than Leivo is an exceptionally talented replacement. Great size, great compete, solid skill level. There's a reason why he's been one of our top prospects for the last 4 years. Spaling is more of the same for this team. Great 4th line guy who will work hard every shift of every game. Was brought up by Barry Trotz over in Nashville so you know his defence is good. Beck is the same. He's very underrated and could be a Maple Leaf for the next 10 years. Or he could be gone by March, who knows really.
Arcobello has the potential to make Bozak expendable believe it or not. Everyone who has watched this guy raves about him. Its upsetting that he had to get moved around so much last year, but his numbers for the season were stupid good for his situation. And Carrick and Frattin will fight it out for the 14th forward spot. If Frattin loses, which he more than likely will, then he'll be dumped for like a 2017 7th or something. Not because he isn't good, but because we have too much depth above him and below him to really do anything with him. Story of his career since the lockout season playoff injury. Carrick will most likely captain the Marlies if he loses the battle.
Now looking at defence. Phaneuf will be Babcock's special project. I really hope he can make something happen there. Luckily, he likes to play the right side. Gardiner performed, in advanced statistics anyway, like a top pairing defenceman. Lets see if it actually means anything. Rielly is Rielly, still given the space to grow now being fresh off of an actually noticeable season for him personally. If Gardiner flops, he'll be given the go ahead and hopefully hits the ground running. Polak is sort of just placed here out of him being a RD, and better than Robidas. He's freakishly strong and has good leaderships skills. Marincin could be the steal of the draft, despite being acquired through trade. Great size, good skill level. Lets see if he can together without becoming another nobody that we thought was something. Robidas and Hunwick will split time as the 6/7 Dmen.
Bernier and Reimer are Bernier and Reimer. Both so far seem more like lucrative back ups being thrusted into a starter role. I see Bernier as the favourite to excel but lets not forget that Reimer can be freakishly good at times. If they get a better defence in front of them, which they should under Babcock, then their numbers should improve.
So looking at it, if all things go according to plan, which sometimes they do, we could compete for a playoff spot (likely not getting it). If only some things work out, look for a 5-10 Overall spot in the draft. And if its another flop, then Jakob Chyrchun here we come. All that we can really say is that this team will most definitely compete, which is all I want.
HellasLEAF
'93 to Infinity
- Sep 14, 2006
- 15,343
- 1,798
looking at these lineups, it's clear to me this will be the most boring year.
oh boy let's watch a bunch of place holder players and rentals for a season as they keep the spots warm for the real core.
I'm just saying.
Might be the year to watch Marlies instead.
oh boy let's watch a bunch of place holder players and rentals for a season as they keep the spots warm for the real core.
I'm just saying.
Might be the year to watch Marlies instead.
I've been tweaking the line-ups trying to get a good balance. It's tough. We need better depth. A lot of our guys are good at one thing (ie. goalscoring) but then not so good at another thing (ie. playmaking). This is why Lupul's and Bozak's trade values are low. This is why all those unrestricted free agents we signed were on cheap 1-2 year contracts. This is why Pittsburgh insisted that we take Nick Spaling in the Kessel deal. They all have flaws in their game.
And it's really not as simple as pairing a goalscorer with a playmaker and then an all-round guy as the third man. We don't actually have the depth to do this.
Generally the lines I composed are good at scoring goals except the second line. The second line is weak in that area. Winnik is a great playmaker but he's a dreadful goalscorer.
My third-line is weak on the playmaking front. Tyler Bozak is the line's best playmaker (lol). Shawn Matthias and Mark Arcobello are not so good at that aspect of the game but they are good at scoring goals. Shawn Matthias is especially bad at that aspect of the game (I've looked at his three year stats and it's pretty much confirmed that he doesn't get a lot of first assists or even secondary assists) but he's great at scoring goals.
And on the first line, Lupul is a drag in the playmaking side of the game. Doesn't get a lot of first assists. But he's good at scoring goals. If this was 2011-12 or 2012-13 Lupul playing, I wouldn't be too concerned.
The fourth line however is solid all-round by 4th line standards. But it's still the weakest line however. My 4th line has a better average first assist rate than my 3rd line. But other than that, it's the weakest line offensively. As it should be since it's the 4th line.
Lupul-Kadri-Parenteau
vanRiemsdyk-Holland-Winnik
Matthias-Bozak-Arcobello
Komarov-Spaling-Beck
Panik
And it's really not as simple as pairing a goalscorer with a playmaker and then an all-round guy as the third man. We don't actually have the depth to do this.
Generally the lines I composed are good at scoring goals except the second line. The second line is weak in that area. Winnik is a great playmaker but he's a dreadful goalscorer.
My third-line is weak on the playmaking front. Tyler Bozak is the line's best playmaker (lol). Shawn Matthias and Mark Arcobello are not so good at that aspect of the game but they are good at scoring goals. Shawn Matthias is especially bad at that aspect of the game (I've looked at his three year stats and it's pretty much confirmed that he doesn't get a lot of first assists or even secondary assists) but he's great at scoring goals.
And on the first line, Lupul is a drag in the playmaking side of the game. Doesn't get a lot of first assists. But he's good at scoring goals. If this was 2011-12 or 2012-13 Lupul playing, I wouldn't be too concerned.
The fourth line however is solid all-round by 4th line standards. But it's still the weakest line however. My 4th line has a better average first assist rate than my 3rd line. But other than that, it's the weakest line offensively. As it should be since it's the 4th line.
Lupul-Kadri-Parenteau
vanRiemsdyk-Holland-Winnik
Matthias-Bozak-Arcobello
Komarov-Spaling-Beck
Panik
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VainGretzky
Registered User
- Jun 4, 2015
- 13,194
- 10,862
Last plce is the goal. 1st pick in the 2016 draft means Matthews a 6ft3 franchise centre who can play like Eichel but with more skill.
BayStreetBully
Registered User
It will be a great year to watch the Marlies.
On the Leafs, I'm still looking forward to watching guys like Rielly, Gardiner and Kadri improve. And I want to see if Babcock can work on Phaneuf.
BayStreetBully
Registered User
I didn't know where to put this....
Are Percy and Harrington ready for the NHL? They've both played 2 years of pro.
Are Percy and Harrington ready for the NHL? They've both played 2 years of pro.
as Pure as Evil
Registered User
I think a lot of people are selling Josh Leivo short. i believe he will impress in camp and make the team.
This is a good one here. If young guys like Harrington, Percy, Leivo, Carrick, etc. prove that they deserve to be on the team out of camp, the Leafs can always put vets on waivers or trade them for late draft picks. The Leafs only spent money to acquire them, so we're not losing any hockey assets.
I would imagine that the vets that signed with us recently on 1-2 year contracts did so expecting to be with the team until February/March (trade deadline). Shawn Matthias (1 yr UFA), Nick Spaling (1yr UFA), P-A Parenteau (1yr UFA), Mark Arcobello (1yr UFA), Taylor Beck (1yr RFA), Martin Marincin (1yr RFA), Daniel Winnik (2yr UFA), Matt Hunwick (2yr UFA).
If any of those guys got traded or waived in September/October before the season starts because they didn't "make the team", they would be furious because they just signed a contract with Toronto in July (or were traded to Toronto in Spaling's case) and haven't played a single regular season game yet.
Maybe I'm wrong but I believe it's taboo to "sign and trade" players. Unless it's near the trade deadline. Because the players understand that their team want to get an asset back for them.
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LeafalCrusader
Registered User
Wonder how many of these guys will be back in 2 or 3 years time. Not sure the numbers going to be more than 3 or 4.
Yes, both are ready.
Basically these 4 are for sure on the team: Gardiner, Phaneuf, Rielly, Polak.
That leaves: Marincin, Robidas, Hunwick, Percy, Harrington competing for two spots.
I think we're likely to see Percy and Harrington as a top pair for the Marlies. Marincin will probably be the #4 or #5 guy. And Robidas and Hunwick will be the 6th and 7th guys who end up battling for the last spot.
But I haven't really seen many of these guys guys play... so who knows. All those guys are NHL ready... it's just a question of who the coach picks.
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
Could someone explain Toronto cap situation
How much cap room do we have to sign Bernier? Does that include Horton contract?
How much cap room do we have to sign Bernier? Does that include Horton contract?
Nithoniniel
Registered User
Duke Silver
Truce?
http://www.generalfanager.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs
I'd suggest doing a little bit of perusing before posting duplicate threads.
I'd suggest doing a little bit of perusing before posting duplicate threads.
mallory67
Registered User
Not sure we need Bernier. Teams don't really trade for starting goalies at the deadline right?
Trade him now ...
Nithoniniel
Registered User
We don't need anything right now. Doesn't mean that we should trade everything we've got.
We've got $6.6 mil cap space including Nathan Horton's cap hit. And a further $5.3m to play with as Horton is on Long-term Injury Reserve (LTIR). LOL.
I don't understand what Leafs management is trying to accomplish.
1) If you want to bring in vets to make it hard for the prospects to compete for a roster spot, you can say good bye to Auston Matthews. Making our team more competitive reduces our chance of drafting 1st overall. Some people are saying this is a 60 point team. But it seriously isn't. This team is going to surprise people. A bunch of hungry cheap vets on 1-2 year contracts that provide value and have something to prove. Our defense is still mostly the same (Phaneuf, Gardiner, Rielly, Polak, Robidas, Brennan are all back. Marincin and Hunwick are the only changes) but a lot of changes were made up front (P-A Parenteau, Nick Spaling, Mark Arcobello, Shawn Matthias, Taylor Beck. Daniel Winnik is back and he was one of the guys on our roster last year who was actually making our team better). And we've got a new coach in Mike Babcock. And the management culture has changed. Gone are Burke and Nonis and their old assistants.
2) If you want to make the team competitive, the Leafs could have done a much better job in free agency. We have so much cap space. We could have spent more to get better (but still reasonably priced) vets on 1-2 year deals.
It seems to me like the Leafs aren't going all-in into anything. They're not committing to anything. They're just doing things half-assed. They aren't going all-in competitively. Nor are they going all-in with the tanking.
I don't understand what Leafs management is trying to accomplish.
1) If you want to bring in vets to make it hard for the prospects to compete for a roster spot, you can say good bye to Auston Matthews. Making our team more competitive reduces our chance of drafting 1st overall. Some people are saying this is a 60 point team. But it seriously isn't. This team is going to surprise people. A bunch of hungry cheap vets on 1-2 year contracts that provide value and have something to prove. Our defense is still mostly the same (Phaneuf, Gardiner, Rielly, Polak, Robidas, Brennan are all back. Marincin and Hunwick are the only changes) but a lot of changes were made up front (P-A Parenteau, Nick Spaling, Mark Arcobello, Shawn Matthias, Taylor Beck. Daniel Winnik is back and he was one of the guys on our roster last year who was actually making our team better). And we've got a new coach in Mike Babcock. And the management culture has changed. Gone are Burke and Nonis and their old assistants.
2) If you want to make the team competitive, the Leafs could have done a much better job in free agency. We have so much cap space. We could have spent more to get better (but still reasonably priced) vets on 1-2 year deals.
It seems to me like the Leafs aren't going all-in into anything. They're not committing to anything. They're just doing things half-assed. They aren't going all-in competitively. Nor are they going all-in with the tanking.
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Kurisu
mad scientist
Kurisu
mad scientist
Sorry, they didn't do it your way, so it's wrong. Being a last place team doesn't guarantee that we're be picking 1st, 2nd, or 3rd next year. They're accumulating assets that can be turned into draft picks down the line.
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