GDT: Lightning vs Capitals. 7pm. Verizon Center. 4.13.2013

[brs03]

Semin had 2 years at 90-100 point levels. Besides that he was producing at numbers very similar to Erat, with similar linemates. Obviously Semin>Erat, but I don't think the difference is that big (we'll know more as we see Erat more). Also it's hard to argue a near PPG winger>>>>a near PPG center, considering one has Eric Staal as a linemate and one has Troy Brouwer.

Again, Semin is a better player than both Erat and Ribeiro, but I think you're over exaggerating just how much better he is.

You're looking at point production, in all situations (when ES is all that matters when talking about the 2nd line). You're ignoring how much they give the other team during that time.

Semin was much, much better than Ribeiro in that respect. They might put up similar points. Ribeiro will get scored on way more. The line now isn't as good as it used to be.

I don't care about position, and I don't really care about who they're playing with. As the best player on his line Semin's second line was comfortably in the black in terms of chance differential; they dominated at ES. As the best player on his line Ribeiro's second line is basically neutral.

Granted, sussing out how much of that is the players and how much is the coaches isn't easy, but Ribeiro's track record suggests this is what he would be for any coach. And I have to hope Oates isn't that much worse than prime BB.

 

[Liberati0n*]

Semin had 2 years at 90-100 point levels. Besides that he was producing at numbers very similar to Erat, with similar linemates. Obviously Semin>Erat, but I don't think the difference is that big (we'll know more as we see Erat more). Also it's hard to argue a near PPG winger>>>>a near PPG center, considering one has Eric Staal as a linemate and one has Troy Brouwer.

Again, Semin is a better player than both Erat and Ribeiro, but I think you're over exaggerating just how much better he is.

Every single post you've made about this has used data that includes PP stats to judge ES play.

 

[caps4cup]

You're looking at point production, in all situations (when ES is all that matters when talking about the 2nd line). You're ignoring how much they give the other team during that time.

Semin was much, much better than Ribeiro in that respect. They might put up similar points. Ribeiro will get scored on way more. The line now isn't as good as it used to be.

I don't care about position, and I don't really care about who they're playing with. As the best player on his line Semin's second line was comfortably in the black in terms of chance differential; they dominated at ES. As the best player on his line Ribeiro's second line is basically neutral.

Granted, sussing out how much of that is the players and how much is the coaches isn't easy, but Ribeiro's track record suggests this is what he would be for any coach. And I have to hope Oates isn't that much worse than prime BB.

I'll believe you on the scoring chance part as I'm not gonna look that up but going by the eye test, this 2nd line seems much better, and not a problem, while when Semin was on the team the 2nd line didn't look very strong and was always recognized as a problem.

And I think once Erat settles in it will help that line tremendously. The difference between having a 3rd/4th liner on that line and a legit top 6 forward can make a huuuugggeee difference, as seen when Johansson replaced Hendricks/Volpatti. More scoring chances, cleaner break outs, better puck possession, and quicker/crisper passing ensued.

 

[brs03]

Ok, looked at some simple numbers from the past few years. Nothing deep, just ES production.

Note, these are per game instead of per 60 since I don't have icetime breakdowns and don't feel like looking deeper right now.

This year at ES:
Ribeiro = .14 G/game, .45 P/game
Brouwer = .20 G/game, .32 P/game

In '11-'12 at ES:
Semin = .25 G/game, .56 P/game
Laich = .12 G/game, .38 P/game
MoJo = .16 G/game, .48 P/game

In '10-'11 at ES:
Semin = .32 G/game, .54 P/game
Laich = .13 G/game, .39 P/game
MoJo = .14 G/game, .33 P/game

In '09-'10 at ES:
Semin = .41(!) G/game, .75(!) P/game
Laich = .15 G/game, .46 P/game
BreMo = .12 G/game, .46 P/game


Now, again this ignores how much better those second lines tended to be than the current one is in terms of chances against and goal against and such. But just looking at the production for, I think it should be clear that Erat will have some pretty big shoes to fill if this is going to be the best we've ever seen from the second line.

Now obviously this is quick and dirty, doesn't account for what was actually the most common line combos and doesn't account for situations in which SOB played together at the end of games and whatnot. So that tempers things a bit when talking about replacing Semin. But it should still be clear that, looking only at production in the Caps' favor, the current line isn't all that amazing compared to the past.

Sidenote: holy crap that '09-'10 season from Sasha.

 

[caps4cup]

Every single post you've made about this has used data that includes PP stats to judge ES play.

A goals a goal. A points a point. Who cares if its PP or ES. They count the same. Semin was horrible on the PP last year. Ribeiro has been great. It's not a coincidence that the PP is clicking again.

And Ribeiro still is averaging about .5 PPG at ES, which isn't bad, considering he should still produce more there, and add about 20-25 points at least on the PP. That's 65 points over an 82 game season, which is enough to be a #1 center.

Btw, Semin and Ribeiro have the same amount of ES goals and Ribeiro has more total goals.

I'm still not saying Ribeiro>Semin, but the difference is not huge. Ribeiro is still a very good #2 center. Semin is a #1 winger.

 

[brs03]

Being good on the PP doesn't make you a good 2nd liner, though. It makes you a PP specialist. The 2nd line exists only as an ES construct. Why should PP production matter there? I mean, it's a factor if you're talking about how to distribute money and such. But not in determining how good your second line is.

 

[caps4cup]

Ok, looked at some simple numbers from the past few years. Nothing deep, just ES production.

Note, these are per game instead of per 60 since I don't have icetime breakdowns and don't feel like looking deeper right now.

This year at ES:
Ribeiro = .14 G/game, .45 P/game
Brouwer = .20 G/game, .32 P/game

In '11-'12 at ES:
Semin = .25 G/game, .56 P/game
Laich = .12 G/game, .38 P/game
MoJo = .16 G/game, .48 P/game

In '10-'11 at ES:
Semin = .32 G/game, .54 P/game
Laich = .13 G/game, .39 P/game
MoJo = .14 G/game, .33 P/game

In '09-'10 at ES:
Semin = .41(!) G/game, .75(!) P/game
Laich = .15 G/game, .46 P/game
BreMo = .12 G/game, .46 P/game


Now, again this ignores how much better those second lines tended to be than the current one is in terms of chances against and goal against and such. But just looking at the production for, I think it should be clear that Erat will have some pretty big shoes to fill if this is going to be the best we've ever seen from the second line.

Now obviously this is quick and dirty, doesn't account for what was actually the most common line combos and doesn't account for situations in which SOB played together at the end of games and whatnot. So that tempers things a bit when talking about replacing Semin. But it should still be clear that, looking only at production in the Caps' favor, the current line isn't all that amazing compared to the past.

Sidenote: holy crap that '09-'10 season from Sasha.

Yep Semin was amazing in 09-10. But again the difference isn't huge between Semin/Ribeiro save for 2010. About 8 points per season is the difference, or 1 point every 10 games.

On a side note... Mojo was pretty good last year at ES and he still has so many haters which is sad to see. Definitely one of my favorite players, even though he can be frustrating at times.

Also, is there anyway you could check Ribeiro and Erat's ES numbers the past 3 years as well?

 

[Liberati0n*]

A goals a goal. A points a point. Who cares if its PP or ES. They count the same. Semin was horrible on the PP last year. Ribeiro has been great. It's not a coincidence that the PP is clicking again.

Yeah, but the second line only exists at ES. In terms of just "offensive depth," okay, but you've been arguing that the second line as a unit is the best it's been. What brs is saying about the overall impact of the line can't be ignored, whether you use possession stats to judge things or not. Hopefully Erat will help, but Ribeiro and Brouwer are not good defensive players and their line hasn't been good defensively (which is related to their getting outchanced all the time). If two lines score at similar rates at ES but one allows the opposition more chances and goals, it's clear that the other one is better overall.

 

[caps4cup]

Being good on the PP doesn't make you a good 2nd liner, though. It makes you a PP specialist. The 2nd line exists only as an ES construct. Why should PP production matter there? I mean, it's a factor if you're talking about how to distribute money and such. But not in determining how good your second line is.

That's true but the difference isn't huge, as you've shown with your statistics analysis. Also, as i said earlier the addition of Erat to that line is being extremely underrated. Look at what happened when Johansson replaced Hendricks/Volpatti on the 1st line. It's tough playing when it's pretty much 4v5 out there.

 

[brs03]

Yep Semin was amazing in 09-10. But again the difference isn't huge between Semin/Ribeiro save for 2010. About 8 points per season is the difference, or 1 point every 10 games.

On a side note... Mojo was pretty good last year at ES and he still has so many haters which is sad to see. Definitely one of my favorite players, even though he can be frustrating at times.

Also, is there anyway you could check Ribeiro and Erat's ES numbers the past 3 years as well?

Yep. All data is from http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats....on=F&country=&status=&viewName=scoringLeaders

Ribeiro at ES:
'11-12: .22 G/gm, .65 P/gm
'10-11: .15 G/gm, .59 P/gm
'09-10: .14 G/gm, .40 P/gm

Erat at ES:
'11-12: .18 G/gm, .55 P/gm
'10-11: .16 G/gm, .55 P/gm
'09-10: .22 G/gm, .46 P/gm


So if all of them hold, the 2nd line should be ok offensively. Defense is a much bigger concern for me. I still don't buy that they're the best we've had in recent times.

 

[Langway]

Looking at WOWY charts it seems that from a productivity standpoint Brouwer is a big drag and then Ribeiro tends to be a big drag on possession overall. Combine the two players on the same line and it's no bueno for a supposed scoring line. Those two should not be on the same line. Ward can be just as solid defensively if that's the concern and I'd tend to think Fehr could be as well. Both would do a better job offensively.

 

[caps4cup]

Yep. All data is from http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats....on=F&country=&status=&viewName=scoringLeaders

Ribeiro at ES:
'11-12: .22 G/gm, .65 P/gm
'10-11: .15 G/gm, .59 P/gm
'09-10: .14 G/gm, .40 P/gm

Erat at ES:
'11-12: .18 G/gm, .55 P/gm
'10-11: .16 G/gm, .55 P/gm
'09-10: .22 G/gm, .46 P/gm


So if all of them hold, the 2nd line should be ok offensively. Defense is a much bigger concern for me. I still don't buy that they're the best we've had in recent times.

Yep so actually Ribeiro's had a down year at ES this year, and Erat is also pretty good in that regard too. So I agree the offense should be pretty/really good for a 2nd line.

I agree on the defense too. I don't necessarily think they're bad defensive players, all 3 are just prone to turnovers. That is my biggest concern from them. Way too many turnovers.

 

[brs03]

Looking at WOWY charts it seems that from a productivity standpoint Brouwer is a big drag and then Ribeiro tends to be a big drag on possession overall. Combine the two players on the same line and it's no bueno for a supposed scoring line. Those two should not be on the same line. Ward can be just as solid defensively if that's the concern and I'd tend to think Fehr could be as well. Both would do a better job offensively.

Yeah, I don't know what you do to pretty it up at this point. Erat needs to be a miracle work to make the underlying numbers look good.

 

[msrulo]

Looking at WOWY charts it seems that from a productivity standpoint Brouwer is a big drag and then Ribeiro tends to be a big drag on possession overall. Combine the two players on the same line and it's no bueno for a supposed scoring line. Those two should not be on the same line. Ward can be just as solid defensively if that's the concern and I'd tend to think Fehr could be as well. Both would do a better job offensively.

I think the Caps system tends to be more about first touches, and the PP. Possession doesn't seem to be a standpoint. The system works well I suppose. If you want to see a possession team vs a first touch team it's LA vs NJD in the SC finals. According to rumors NJ was working the same Caps system under Oates as their asst. coach. But in reality, who knows what's going on in the locker room and what system the Caps are using. Nobody but the Caps really.

 

[txpd]

i would give erat some games to show something. its apparantly not an easy system to learn and with an injury that has to still be effecting him, its going to take some time.

 

[Halpysback*]

Ribeiro is the 3rd - 4th most important player in the PP scheme of things. Oates himself stated Backstrom is the engine, everyone here can see Ovechkin's effectiveness, and you could potentially argue Green as well. Dallas had the worst PP in the league the last year he was traded so clearly he's not a miracle cure. He does have Briere/MSL style shiftiness/surprise passing that is incredibly valuable in that it can singlehandedly keep the PP from inadvertently going static and that practically no one else on the team has, but you try to find other ways to replace that. For instance, Filip Fohwait

 

[Raikkonen]

Erat-Perreault-Ward = 2nd
Fehr-Laich-Brouwer = 3rd

or other way round

pluses:

1) interchangeable
2) Schultz can be kept

 

[johnsic]

Im still pissed that we let Semin walk.

 

[Raikkonen]

Im still pissed that we let Semin walk.

Semin got 6 years x 7M from Carolina. No way McPhee would pay so much. Wasn't in the cards probably.

Just wait for Kuznetsov if you like Sasha. 1 year remaining. Not that far away.



EDIT: That's higher salary than Backstrom has.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yeah, I don't know what you do to pretty it up at this point. Erat needs to be a miracle work to make the underlying numbers look good.

What you do is play the game and let fans worry about crunching numbers over and over again...


The team is better overall with Ribeiro.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Im still pissed that we let Semin walk.

YOu can always watch the team he's single handedly carried to the playoffs this year....oh wait....




Jokes aside, I miss Semin's talents, but nothing else that he brought....certainly don't envy the $35 mil contract he signed.

 

[brs03]

What you do is play the game and let fans worry about crunching numbers over and over again...


The team is better overall with Ribeiro.

The PP is. They're worse at ES. How those two balance going forward is going to be the $20 million question, I suspect.

 

[txpd]

Ribeiro is the 3rd - 4th most important player in the PP scheme of things. Oates himself stated Backstrom is the engine, everyone here can see Ovechkin's effectiveness, and you could potentially argue Green as well. Dallas had the worst PP in the league the last year he was traded so clearly he's not a miracle cure. He does have Briere/MSL style shiftiness/surprise passing that is incredibly valuable in that it can singlehandedly keep the PP from inadvertently going static and that practically no one else on the team has, but you try to find other ways to replace that. For instance, Filip Fohwait

the critical player in the caps power play success has been troy brouwer. his catch and shoot scoring from that mid slot inside right wing circle area is the difference. ribeiro's spot in the corner has been critical to that success. when the pk has tried to take that pass away, backstrom has been open to pass it there.

right now the caps pp creates a hole that they have been able to exploit. the pk doesnt want ovechkin and green to shoot. that opens up the bottom for brouwer. brouwer scores enough to force coverage and the cross ice pass from backstrom to ovechkin opens for ov's one timer. if they try to take that pass away, shooting room for green opens up. its a process that you see working step to step.

laich can't replicate what ribeiro is doing. maybe johansson can, but i doubt it. i dont think yer boy forsberg is ready for that either.

 

[ChibiPooky]

the critical player in the caps power play success has been troy brouwer. his catch and shoot scoring from that mid slot inside right wing circle area is the difference. ribeiro's spot in the corner has been critical to that success. when the pk has tried to take that pass away, backstrom has been open to pass it there.

right now the caps pp creates a hole that they have been able to exploit. the pk doesnt want ovechkin and green to shoot. that opens up the bottom for brouwer. brouwer scores enough to force coverage and the cross ice pass from backstrom to ovechkin opens for ov's one timer. if they try to take that pass away, shooting room for green opens up. its a process that you see working step to step.

laich can't replicate what ribeiro is doing. maybe johansson can, but i doubt it. i dont think yer boy forsberg is ready for that either.

And when they take away the time and space for Ribeiro and Backstrom, the whole thing falls apart.

 

[Liberati0n*]

laich can't replicate what ribeiro is doing. maybe johansson can, but i doubt it. i dont think yer boy forsberg is ready for that either.

Perreault is the obvious choice.