Let's Talk Defensemen

Mantha Poodoo

Playoff Beard
Jun 5, 2008
4,109
0
So given that we do have some issues and a lot of discussion about our defensemen both individually and as a whole, I thought a thread seemed appropriate.

First off, I'd like to start this off by linking to BinCookin's defensive stats experiment thread:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1969545

That said, I'd prefer to keep that thread to the topic of his system and the numbers within and not distract too much with discussion.

Now then, my personal examination of the D-men at this point in the season.

Kronwall: Was being relied upon to do too much, especially when Blash was trying to play Glendening against every line on the opposing team. A little more team stability has let him open up his game a little more and he's looked a lot more threatening the past few games. Overall, he's still probably the best d-man on the team; just imagine any of the other d-men that we have being asked to do what he had to for the first 20 games or so.

Green: This guy has been a godsend. While the defensive side of his game is nothing to write home about, it's also not bad, and he's a great possession driver. He's also been a huge asset to getting out of the defensive zone, one of the biggest problems we've had the past handful of years. There's little question to me he's played himself into the #2 position for now.

Dekeyser: Not a great start for him, but as the team has stabilized a little so has he. He's still firmly our #3 and in general plays a very sound game. Though he doesn't have Green's offensive vision, he likewise helps with the team's breakout.

Quincey: The team actually misses him rather badly. KFQ is a guy that crumples if you try to have him to do too much, but he's a solid #4 dman who has a decent defensive game. While he's not an offensive wizard, he's also not a black hole and can generally help keep the game moving.

Marchenko: He still needs sheltered minutes, but he's got a mature game for his age and good defensive acumen. The book is still out on his ability to generate offense, but he is yet another d-man we have with good puck movement from the back end and I think we'll see more of this as he settles in. I'd tentatively call him an established #5 or #6 for now.

Kindl: Is boring. I think this more than anything else contributes to the lack of enthusiasm about him. He's a decent skater but not amazing. He's a big player but not particularly physical. He's a decent puckmover but not great. He's got reasonable offensive vision but not stunning. Basically, he's a run of the mill bottom pairing d-man that can occasionally fill in on a 2nd PP unit. He always seems to have confidence issues, especially where physicality is concerned; he might well be a boring #4 if his game wasn't so soft. That said, I don't think he's our biggest issue on defense.

Smith: Believe it or not, I don't think Smith is the biggest issue on the defense either. That said, he's is a very particular player. I think he might do better on another team at this point. Ideally, he just needs to be given a long leash, let him almost be a 4th forward and realize that you're going to have risky plays when he's on the ice. What this also means is that he needs a defensively stable and smart partner (see back when he was paired with Kronwall, or maybe Dekeyser). What should never happen is pairing him with someone insecure like Kindl. This is where the real problem happens with Kindl and Smith: trying to find defensive pairs that don't make you cringe while avoiding playing them together.

Ericsson: The team tire fire. His possession numbers blow. His ice time has been steadily decreasing. He takes an absurd amount of penalties, even more per game this year than in the past. He had a couple decent years, but I think he might have outlasted his usefulness to the Wings. If nothing else, he needs to be woken up. The highlight of the Dekeyser - Ericsson pairing is quite frankly Dekeyser. The only thing worth keeping him around for is the PK, and if KFQ were back I wouldn't even mind booting him off that at this point. His overly safe play keeps him from looking horrible, but so far this season he brings nothing except penalties. A decent game against the worst team in the league isn't really selling me on him. He was uninspiring against a tired Boston and was basically trying to give the Blues points for some reason.

Looking at the defensive group as a whole, we are destined for some frustration no matter what pairings are used, particularly until KFQ gets back. That said, I think this might be a good time for experimentation.

What would I want to try for now?

Kronwall - Green
Dekeyser - Smith
Kindl - Marchenko

Kronwall and Green together should have been a thing since day 1. Dunno why it took so long, but I'm not particularly inclined to change it.

I think Dekeyser is safe enough and a good enough puck mover that you can play Smith with him and let Smith do his thing, but you have to let Smith do his thing. If not, he will be an endless source of frustration. Let him jump in on the offense and hit people a bit.

Kindl and Marchenko together would be a boring 3rd pairing minutes pairing, but not a bad one. They're both reasonably safe for a 3rd pair. Marchenko brings enough defensive zone grit to balance out Kindl's softness and hopefully even inspire him a little. Kindl is a decent enough puck mover to let Marchenko get comfortable with his game. I wouldn't expect the world out of this pairing, but it wouldn't be a dumpster fire like Kindl and Smith together.

Worst case, I think Dekeyser-Smith fails to work (likely on account of Smith) and you throw in a hopefully woken up Ericsson back onto the pairing with Dekeyser after he's sit a couple games. When KFQ comes back, if that weird experiment works, make a stable pairing out of KFQ and March, and if not, put KFQ back with DD and stick with Kindl-March.

I'd like to make clear that I don't expect the Smith experiment idea to work. I don't think he'll be allowed to cut loose like he needs to, and that he's a poor fit for what the Wings expect of defensemen. I would honestly look at moving him for some small value in part of a larger trade. Likewise, I think Ericsson is playing his way off the team and being slowly replaced by other people that do his job better/cheaper.
 

The Zetterberg Era

Ball Hockey Sucks
Nov 8, 2011
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Ericsson is better than those guys and has actually played well with DK, at worst he drops to anchoring your third pairing where he is more than qualified. I would be curious to have a look at DeKeyser and Smith, but in that scenario I play Ericsson and Marchenko together, leaving Kindl stapled to the pressbox.

If Kindl is not going to engage physically with any consistency which remains his biggest problem, he should not touch the ice. His compete level is embarrassing most nights.
 

Mantha Poodoo

Playoff Beard
Jun 5, 2008
4,109
0
What happens when Quincey returns? It's a ways off, but if Marchenko continues to play well, is Smith out?

Smith or Kindl; I discuss those possibilities near the end there. KFQ should either be on the 2nd pairing with DD or anchoring a higher-minute 3rd pair--the upside to this is that it takes some ice time pressure off of Kronwall and Green; the downside is you need someone to pair with him that can handle the minutes (I'm hoping Marchenko gets there). And then at that point who plays with Dekeyser? I'd hope that either Smith has an epiphany or Ericsson wakes up.

Ericsson is better than those guys and has actually played well with DK, at worst he drops to anchoring your third pairing where he is more than qualified. I would be curious to have a look at DeKeyser and Smith, but in that scenario I play Ericsson and Marchenko together, leaving Kindl stapled to the pressbox.

If Kindl is not going to engage physically with any consistency which remains his biggest problem, he should not touch the ice. His compete level is embarrassing most nights.

He really hasn't been, though. He LOOKS safe, because he doesn't do much with the puck, minimizing giveaway opportunities, and he plays far back enough to not get caught. His problem this year is that he's had either no drive or no energy. In the past, a lot of Ericsson's dumb penalties were at least the result of grit on his behalf. This year, it's been lazy penalties, and they're at an unacceptable level. He brings nothing to the transition or offense and this year his defensive responsibility is certainly overstated. I don't think it's an ability issue; he's a good #4 type shutdown guy when he's on his game. He needs a boot in the ass. I'm not sure dropping him to the 3rd pairing will do that. Sit him a couple games and see if any of the 3 young guys jump into that #4 slot (I'm honestly hoping Marchenko). Then bring him back onto the 3rd pairing and see if he's willing to play for his ice time.

I don't disagree on Kindl. That said, I think part of his problem is that he's generally stuck with a defensive pairing situation that's a tire fire waiting to happen. I think in a low minute scenario, Kindl-March can be reasonably safe and maybe March can inspire him to a grittier game. If not, I'm in the same boat as you: he can ride the pine at that point. At least Smith tries. He's just derpy.
 
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Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,243
14,753
I'm a lot more interested in bringing in more talent, as opposed to rearranging the crap we have.
 

Tatar Shots

Registered User
Feb 2, 2014
5,715
1,716
I'm a lot more interested in bringing in more talent, as opposed to rearranging the crap we have.

I'd still love to try and bring in Vatanen in the offseason if he becomes available. He fits the system perfectly and would be a solid addition to the top 4. Also if Shattenkirk ever becomes available :naughty:
 

Lazlo Hollyfeld

The jersey ad still sucks
Mar 4, 2004
28,538
26,961
I disagree about Ericsson. I don't think he's a top pairing defenseman but he provides a lot of qualities the team needs and is a relatively solid #4 guy. Most #4 defenseman are going to make mistakes. It's why they're #4.

For starters, corsi numbers are pretty suspect when used for single players on a team. For example, they don't account for offensive zone starts and Ericsson gets the fewest of anyone on the team at 42.4%. Green, by comparison gets 61.6%. Kindl is next with 58.3%. Kronwall, Ericsson and Dekeyser are the 3 d-men who end up with an offensive zone finish % that's higher than their o-zone starts %.


Also, I don't see his TOI numbers steadily going down. Though I think he will be more effective if his ice time is more representative of a #4 guy than a top pairing.

In terms of what he provides the team:

PK. He's the #1 penalty killer among D-men, and he's good at it.

Physical play. He's the team's most physical defenseman and one of the few who can handle big forwards around the net. Everyone else gets pushed around except for KFQ. Ericsson is also one of the few who will drop the gloves to stand up for a teammate. Without E and Quincey it's a lot easier for it to be open season on our goaltenders.

Good first pass especially for a defensive D-man. Ericsson rarely chips it off the glass. Yes he makes some boneheaded turnovers, but it's easy to forget all the nice passes (even up the middle) for the one that ends up on someone's stick. Kindl has much greater offensive skill but is also more likely to chip it off the glass in his own end just to get the puck out. Smith is the new Lebda, making an impressive rush up ice only to lead to a turnover with him well out of position.

Good skater for his size. Not much there offensively but he can jump into the play and seems to be firing the puck at the net more. He's mobile for a big man.

To me, Kindl and Smith are the low hanging fruit. There's still a sliver of hope for Smith but Kindl is a known quantity, and it's not good. Neither of those guys should be getting a roster spot over Ericsson right now.

Ericsson is signed through 2020 for a decent cap hit so I don't see any reason to move him unless it's in a package for a top pairing guy.


(Apologies for the long post. I figured I'd get my thoughts about Ericsson out all at once. :laugh:)
 

TheMule93

On a mule rides the swindler
May 26, 2015
12,474
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Vatanen is still just a bandaid. We need to find a #1 guy. Our Doughty, Faulk, Subban, weber, etc

I miss Lidstrom :/
 

Mantha Poodoo

Playoff Beard
Jun 5, 2008
4,109
0
For starters, corsi numbers are pretty suspect when used for single players on a team. For example, they don't account for offensive zone starts and Ericsson gets the fewest of anyone on the team at 42.4%. Green, by comparison gets 61.6%. Kindl is next with 58.3%. Kronwall, Ericsson and Dekeyser are the 3 d-men who end up with an offensive zone finish % that's higher than their o-zone starts %.

Dekeyser (and KFQ) get a similar percentage of defensive zone starts and as good or better quality of competition and put up better numbers. There's more possession metrics than just corsi. This is why I say that Big Rig is currently deficient.


Also, I don't see his TOI numbers steadily going down. Though I think he will be more effective if his ice time is more representative of a #4 guy than a top pairing.

I agree; Ericsson should not be utilized above #4 + top PK pair.

In terms of what he provides the team:

PK. He's the #1 penalty killer among D-men, and he's good at it.

This is the one thing he's been doing OK at this year, though I think it's overstated and the success this year is more systemic and goalie related.

Physical play. He's the team's most physical defenseman and one of the few who can handle big forwards around the net. Everyone else gets pushed around except for KFQ. Ericsson is also one of the few who will drop the gloves to stand up for a teammate. Without E and Quincey it's a lot easier for it to be open season on our goaltenders.

Again, this is Big Rig at his peak game. This isn't what we've seen out of him this year.

Good first pass especially for a defensive D-man. Ericsson rarely chips it off the glass. Yes he makes some boneheaded turnovers, but it's easy to forget all the nice passes (even up the middle) for the one that ends up on someone's stick. Kindl has much greater offensive skill but is also more likely to chip it off the glass in his own end just to get the puck out. Smith is the new Lebda, making an impressive rush up ice only to lead to a turnover with him well out of position.

Likewise this year, his puck movement has been a little suspect.

Good skater for his size. Not much there offensively but he can jump into the play and seems to be firing the puck at the net more. He's mobile for a big man.

Agreed, Big Rig has never had a problem with mobility.

To me, Kindl and Smith are the low hanging fruit. There's still a sliver of hope for Smith but Kindl is a known quantity, and it's not good. Neither of those guys should be getting a roster spot over Ericsson right now.

Ericsson is signed through 2020 for a decent cap hit so I don't see any reason to move him unless it's in a package for a top pairing guy.

Long term, I don't want to see one of them replace Ericsson altogether/have him sit permanently (unless they do something amazing, and while there's a small chance one of them will, both of them is extremely unlikely).

I'm not calling for a permanent benching of Ericsson, and when he's on his game, I agree with the exact picture you've painted of him. The point I'm making is it isn't the case this year, and for whatever reason he's getting burned a lot and taking a lot of dumb minor penalties of the non-grit variety. He needs a good kick, and if it means making him sit a couple games I think it'd be worth it in the long run. We aren't seeing #3/4 shutdown Ericsson right now--we're seeing #6 safe and lazy Ericsson, and he's getting paid for more than that.
 

Dotter

THE ATHLETIC IS GARBAGE
Jul 2, 2014
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Vatanen is still just a bandaid. We need to find a #1 guy. Our Doughty, Faulk, Subban, weber, etc

I miss Lidstrom :/

The only way you're going to "find" a guy that fits that bill is to *try* and draft them. They are extremely hard to draft without a top 3 pick, even in the top 3 there are no guarantees.

Those type of guys are pure gold.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,243
14,753
Kronwall-Green
Dekeyser-Ericsson
Ouellett-Smith

I guess?
 

skate skate skate

Registered User
Apr 6, 2014
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playertable.html


Edit: Hahah, sorry, I don't know what I'm doing! I'm trying to post this picture: http://war-on-ice.com/playertable.html?mansit=3&scoresit=1&homeawaysit=1&tablegroup=1&playoffs=All&names=&team=DET&pos=6&start1=2015-10-01&xaxis=61&yaxis=96&caxis=9&saxis=103&mintoi=0&tab=2&usedaterange=0&start0=20152016&end0=20152016&end1=2015-11-28&splitseasons=1
 
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Pavels Dog

Registered User
Feb 18, 2013
19,884
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Sweden
I'm sorry, I just can't take someone's opinion seriously if they think Smith and Kindl are better than Ericsson.

E has looked just fine since being moved to the 2nd pairing. Keep in mind that he's also always playing his off-side. Dekeyser looks terrible there for example. If E got to play LD on the 3rd pairing like Kindl and Smith have been doing, he would look great. That may not even be a bad idea to try when Quincey returns.

I'm pretty much over Kindl and Smith at this point. Kindl should be dumped ASAP, and Smith shouldn't be far behind. It's time to get XO some decent playing time.
 

Mantha Poodoo

Playoff Beard
Jun 5, 2008
4,109
0
I'm sorry, I just can't take someone's opinion seriously if they think Smith and Kindl are better than Ericsson.

Oof, don't go that far. Better? No. I think Big Rig is a bigger problem than them; that is, he's been playing worse relative to his expected role than Smith/Kindl have. He needs to get his fire going.

Ericsson looked okay vs Edmonton... (one of) the worst team(s) in the league. He was pretty meh against Boston and sucked against the Blues. I'm willing to give him another game or two, but Ericsson is doing little positive. He's 'safely floating' right now as opposed to actually shutting down. His offensive zone choices have also been net poor; he's not generating bad turnovers, but he's killing the cycle.
 

Flowah

Registered User
Nov 30, 2009
10,249
547
What is TOI/60 of Competition supposed to even measure? I don't see why it's relevant. Is it a proxy for QoC?

What I see from that graph is that Kindl, Smith, Green, Marchenko, and Kronwall are the Corsi leaders in that order. And that Kindl, Green, Marchenko, and Smith are given sheltered O-Zone starts in that order.

I also see DK and E have the worst Corsi but also take the most D-Zone faceoffs. And if TOI/60 of Competition is indeed a proxy for QoC (which I think it is) then they also face the toughest minutes. If it's anyone you would expect to have bad possession/Corsi numbers it's those two, and they fit the bill. Likewise the people you'd expect to have better numbers are those in the lower right, which again is exactly what happens. Sheltered zone starts and lower TOI/60 of Comp.

What I'd want to see is either a WOWY and/or tracking what happens when their zone starts and QoC proxy are swapped.
 

Mantha Poodoo

Playoff Beard
Jun 5, 2008
4,109
0
I guess it's the continuing competition of who will play themselves out of the lineup, Kindl or Smith.

Who would it be if not that?

Kronwall-Green
Dekeyser-Ericsson
Kindl-Marchenko

I guess. Not the worst looking thing ever. I think Kindl could do okay with March.
 

Classicnamesup

MVP Backhand Slapper
Sep 13, 2013
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Frankly, Smith shouldn't get a long leash. He should be traded for anything that has actual value. Right now he sucks offensively and defensively. Give him more space and, judging by his play the last few years, he will still suck offensively and the D will be abysmal.

Guy just hasn't figured it out and I don't see it happening here. Was always rooting for him to get it, thought he was going to a couple years ago. Time to cut the cord Kenny
 

Lazlo Hollyfeld

The jersey ad still sucks
Mar 4, 2004
28,538
26,961
Who would it be if not that?

Kronwall-Green
Dekeyser-Ericsson
Kindl-Marchenko

I guess. Not the worst looking thing ever. I think Kindl could do okay with March.

Valid question.

At this point I feel like Kindl is a lost cause so I'd rather stick with Smith, even though he hasn't been good, on the 5% chance he gets it together.
 

Mantha Poodoo

Playoff Beard
Jun 5, 2008
4,109
0
Valid question.

At this point I feel like Kindl is a lost cause so I'd rather stick with Smith, even though he hasn't been good, on the 5% chance he gets it together.

Kindl is a reasonable bottom pairing/limited minute defenseman. He's just a bit overpaid for what he brings (but it's far from a disastrous contract).

Decent puck movement, generates a decent amount of offense.
Decent defense, limits mistakes as long as he's not overmatched.
Sustains good possession in a sheltered role.

What keeps him from becoming better is his lack of will to compete or engage physically.

Also, stop trying to use him on the PP.

Not really a lost cause. Just a disappointment.
 

Winger98

Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
22,831
4,714
Cleveland
that says Mrazek is starting tomorrow. Did you mean to post this one?





I guess it's the continuing competition of who will play themselves out of the lineup, Kindl or Smith.


it shouldn't be out of the lineup, but off the 23 man roster. Neither player has been able to string together any decent outings, and losing one in waivers doesn't exactly hurt us. Dump one off the roster now, call up a kid, and give a long look until Quincey is back. Worse comes to worse, the kid doesn't play well and we either call up another kid or move back into the lineup whichever we kept of Smith/Kindl.
 

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