Speculation: Let's say hypothetically this is the team next season....

[SpookyTsuki]

Florida and Tampa. Let's just lock them in.

Then you're compete with Boston, who I think will be better than that roster by a mile. Montreal will be better. Ottawa will hover around. And hell, we know Buffalo is on the upswing. Guess I'll put that roster above Toronto, unless they pull the miracle draft + Stamkos.

Anyway, I think 20% is optimistic. DeKeyser-Green, Smith-Marchenko is your top 4? That's so bad.

Depends on how smith plays

 

[Bench]

I think Florida overperformed. I think all else being equal they're fighting for #2/3 spot next season. Maybe worse. 19th in Fenwick Close. 18th for Corsi close. 2nd best PDO. All the classic signs of riding lucky imo.

Tampa may lose Stamkos. Makes them weaker. Buffalo is on the upswing but still a couple of years away I think. Like you said, Toronto ain't gonna be a problem unless they land Stammer *and* get some development/new draftees ready right away. Ottawa, Boston, Wings, Montreal, fighting for 1 divisional spot. I don't think the separation between those 4 teams is that big. Montreal really missed Price but it's clear their team has more issues than that.

Overall I'm still saying there's an 80% chance of missing. That 20% isn't *that* optimistic imo.

Besides, I think that top4 should already be our top4. Kronner and E have been terrible all season. We might be better off frankly, whether those two are bottom pair or just off the team. I'd be more than happy to see XO take one of their spots.

All that's fair. I guess I'm pretty hard on this team when I see that lineup and think of all the defensive weaknesses across the board. If Mrazek plays great, they could sneak in like you said.

 

[Bench]

Depends on how smith plays

We know how Smith plays. He's 27-years-old and has over 280 games in a Wings sweater.

 

[Flowah]

All that's fair. I guess I'm pretty hard on this team when I see that lineup and think of all the defensive weaknesses across the board. If Mrazek plays great, they could sneak in like you said.

I just added some numbers for why I think you shouldn't write Florida in as a lock. They exhibit all the signs of a classic overachiever, like the Flames, Avs, and Leafs before them. Skyhigh PDO, below average Corsi/Fenwick. That means only 1 locked down divisional spot, and realistically about 5 teams (Ottawa, Boston, Florida, Montreal, Wings) fighting for 2 spots. Obviously that doesn't mean our chances are 40%, but it's not lower than 20% I think.

 

[odin1981]

Lottery pick no questions asked in response to the op.

Outside of Mrazek pulling a Hasek type prime goaltending year of course. Then we might get #8 seed.

 

[InjuredChoker]

I just added some numbers for why I think you shouldn't write Florida in as a lock. They exhibit all the signs of a classic overachiever, like the Flames, Avs, and Leafs before them. Skyhigh PDO, below average Corsi/Fenwick. That means only 1 locked down divisional spot, and realistically about 5 teams (Ottawa, Boston, Florida, Montreal, Wings) fighting for 2 spots. Obviously that doesn't mean our chances are 40%, but it's not lower than 20% I think.

florida is at least close to the average in shot differential. avs, flames and leafs were awful.

and if we use just shots and not corsi, they were 0.4 % worse than the wings last season.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

florida is at least close to the average in shot differential. avs, flames and leafs were awful.

and if we use just shots and not corsi, they were 0.4 % worse than the wings last season.

They also have a legit #1 D-man, a HHOF goalie and three studs down the middle. Florida is the power team in the division moving forward, especially if Stamkos makes his way out of Tampa. I lean that way even if he stays.

Barkov is just like Kopitar, he is going to be a dominant two way player. They are legit, they are not going anywhere. At some point they will need to replace Luongo, but they are scratching the surface in my opinion of what they will become.

Really the only concern to date is the Hubie and Barkov seem to get banged up a little too often.

 

[Flowah]

florida is at least close to the average in shot differential. avs, flames and leafs were awful.

and if we use just shots and not corsi, they were 0.4 % worse than the wings last season.

Worse than the Wings last season who were a bubble team and barely made the playoffs?

Like I said I'm not predicting Florida to miss. I just don't think they're locks for a divisional spot. Maybe a wildcard spot. Or maybe #3, who knows. They're on the upper end of the 5 teams I listed fighting for the 2 remaining spots but they're still in that mix.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

We know how Smith plays. He's 27-years-old and has over 280 games in a Wings sweater.

I mean. Not really. He has flashes of being top 4 capable and then sometimes he rotten garbage

Our dcore isn't that bad. Considering smith could be top 4. Danny d and Green are topn4. I've seen worse. Removing kronwall and such is a positive

 

[TheOtherOne]

I think it's pretty much guaranteed that we're going to sign somebody big if Datsyuk is gone. Who knows if it will end up being a good or bad signing, but it will almost certainly be an impact signing. So it's hard to take this hypothetical seriously. Whatever happens will make a huge difference on your answer.

 

[odin1981]

I think it's pretty much guaranteed that we're going to sign somebody big if Datsyuk is gone. Who knows if it will end up being a good or bad signing, but it will almost certainly be an impact signing. So it's hard to take this hypothetical seriously. Whatever happens will make a huge difference on your answer.

UFA + kenny holland does not compute.

 

[lidstromiscool]

Hate to say it, but I think you either sign stop gaps/vets and try to extend the streak (More likely IMO) or completely tank for one season. Any more than that and it breeds a losing culture like Edmonton or Toronto. I think the worst place to finish is right out of the playoffs.

Also, I like Larkin and Mrazek, but I don’t think you can win a cup with those two as your best players. Tanking would hopefully produce a franchise player and give another year to find a top pairing dman also. I would also like to see some trades for more draft picks and see what the Detroit scouts can do with more. Historically they’ve drafted very well in bad positions with not many picks, they’ve earned the right to a high draft with many picks.

 

[RedWingzz]

If that's the roster, we are easily a bottom 5 team in the NHL...

 

[RedWingzz]

I think it's pretty much guaranteed that we're going to sign somebody big if Datsyuk is gone. Who knows if it will end up being a good or bad signing, but it will almost certainly be an impact signing. So it's hard to take this hypothetical seriously. Whatever happens will make a huge difference on your answer.

With what cap space?

Unless Holland finds a way to get Datsyuk's cap hit off the book (not likely) or Holland finds a way to trade Howard (also not likely) we won't have enough cap space to go after anyone with any significance.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Also, I like Larkin and Mrazek, but I don’t think you can win a cup with those two as your best players.

If they reach their potential, yeah I'm pretty sure we'd be fine with them as our best players.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

..make the line combos whatever you want. But this is the roster:

Nyquist - Larkin - Abdelkader
Tatar - Sheahan - Mantha
Pulkkinen - AA - Jurco
Helm - Glendening - Nosek

Dekeyser - Green
Smith - Marchenko
Ericsson - XO

Mrazek

Where do they finish in the standings? Am I crazy for thinking they are worse than this season, but still on the bubble and just miss the playoffs?

See... Is this roster truly that much worse than the Wings in the second half of 2013-2014 when they were sans Datsyuk and Zetterberg? Like say, the roster in this game

http://m.hkref.com/m?p=XXboxscoresXX201404020DET.html

And that team actually finished strong without those guys, mostly due to Nyquist putting the team on his back. Even if it was a fluke half season... The Wings #1C was David Legwand. Before they traded for him it was some mix of a rookie Riley Sheahan, Joakim Andersson, Helm until he was hurt, and rookie Glenny

Like March 4th.

http://m.hkref.com/m?p=XXboxscoresXX201403040NJD.html

Plus, that team didn't have a Petr Mrazek in net that could wholesale steal games. They had Gus and Howard who were good but not spectacular. But they kept winning and got themselves into the playoffs

The team as listed above is definitely a bubble team, particularly if the young guys like AA, Manrha, Larkin, DD, Marchenko, Jurco, and Pulkkinen take any steps forward.

And the above roster would have oodles of cap space to address the holes that became apparent.

 

[Ulysses31]

I not so sure they would not be a playoff team. Perhaps some of the talent with Datsyuk/Z/Kronwall/Richards gone would rise to the occasion (IE Nyquist 2 years ago).

I think this year one of the weakness of the team was too much veteran leadership~Sure it's great having Zetterberg/Datsyuk/Kronwall but beyond that (Richards) is just redundant IMO. BTW I still think Richards is an NHL caliber player but having him just clogged up the roster way too much and could have been a spot in the top 9 that Pulks/Jurco/Mantha could have competed for.

 

[TheOtherOne]

With what cap space?

Unless Holland finds a way to get Datsyuk's cap hit off the book (not likely) or Holland finds a way to trade Howard (also not likely) we won't have enough cap space to go after anyone with any significance.

I'm counting on one of those things happening and if the season starts without both of them I'm probably going to cry and stop posting here and Datsyuk will become my least favorite player ever.

 

[TheOtherOne]

UFA + kenny holland does not compute.

Surely you are correct, the Red Wings will never get a Mike Green-level guy.

 

[njx9]

The team as listed above is definitely a bubble team, particularly if the young guys like AA, Manrha, Larkin, DD, Marchenko, Jurco, and Pulkkinen take any steps forward.

This, exactly. I don't think that hypothetical roster is really going to be all that much worse on ice than what we put out in March. Some decent goaltending, the young guys at least not regressing, and Nyquist (or Tatar, or whoever) stepping up a bit and I think it's another fringe playoff team.

That said, I'd rather see the team in the hypothetical just miss the playoffs, than see another Z/Kronner team ride the edge all season.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

that roster finishes bottom 10

 

[Ulysses31]

PP would improve with mantha and Pulks~ but without Dats/Z Nyquist and co would hAVE TO TAKE OVER ZONE ents

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I think it's pretty much guaranteed that we're going to sign somebody big if Datsyuk is gone. Who knows if it will end up being a good or bad signing, but it will almost certainly be an impact signing. So it's hard to take this hypothetical seriously. Whatever happens will make a huge difference on your answer.

What good UFA is going to want to come to Detroit with the team in serious decline? Rebuilding teams don't attract good UFAs for a reason.

 

[TheOtherOne]

What good UFA is going to want to come to Detroit with the team in serious decline? Rebuilding teams don't attract good UFAs for a reason.

Why'd Green come here? Why'd Suter go to Minny?

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Why'd Green come here? Why'd Suter go to Minny?

Because we weren't a rebuilding team at the time we signed Green. He probably thought he was getting two seasons with Pav and that we would patch things together and continue to at least make the playoffs. It is also very possible that more competitive teams did not want him. He is far from the player he was at his peak.

Suter went to MN because his wife is from there and she wanted to be closer to family.

Once the rebuild truly starts, we won't be in the UFA market. That is the nature of a rebuild.