Blue Jays Discussion: Let the post-winter-meeting, pre-spring-training baseball withdrawl commence!

[King Mapes]

What do you guys see our pitching looking like? Some big names still unsigned.

I think Osuna stays in the Pen. Him, Cecil and Storen have potential to be insane.

Dickey, Stroman, Estrada, Gallardo (I'm predicting we sign him ) will all have spots. Where does that leave Happ, Sanchez and Hutch? Sanchez' stuff is so good but unpredictable. Should he be in the Pen? I duno. Hutch has even more issues.

 

[p.l.f.]

Sanchez wants to start but....
if we lose cecil and storen after 2016 the bullpen gets mighty thin

 

[MJ65]

What do you guys see our pitching looking like? Some big names still unsigned.

I think Osuna stays in the Pen. Him, Cecil and Storen have potential to be insane.

Dickey, Stroman, Estrada, Gallardo (I'm predicting we sign him ) will all have spots. Where does that leave Happ, Sanchez and Hutch? Sanchez' stuff is so good but unpredictable. Should he be in the Pen? I duno. Hutch has even more issues.

I don't think so - hope I am wrong

 

[Canada4Gold]

Sanchez wants to start but....
if we lose cecil and storen after 2016 the bullpen gets mighty thin

Bullpens aren't really a thing you worry about a year in advance, they're not overly difficult to assemble and the volatility usually means a lot of good relievers last year won't be in 2017 and a lot of bad relievers now will come out of nowhere.

 

[Discoverer]

What do you guys see our pitching looking like? Some big names still unsigned.

I think Osuna stays in the Pen. Him, Cecil and Storen have potential to be insane.

Dickey, Stroman, Estrada, Gallardo (I'm predicting we sign him ) will all have spots. Where does that leave Happ, Sanchez and Hutch? Sanchez' stuff is so good but unpredictable. Should he be in the Pen? I duno. Hutch has even more issues.

Gallardo would just be expensive depth/bullpen improvement at this point. It would make sense if Happ/Estrada/Dickey weren't already around, but he's not really any better than them, so I don't get the allure.

EDIT: We've been over the Gallardo thing a million times already, but it's not just him. Based on what's currently available, the only starter who represents a clear opportunity to upgrade the rotation is Cliff Lee. Beyond him, I wouldn't want to commit significant dollars or a roster spot to anyone else. If you can't get Lee, just keep building cheap depth wherever possible.

 

[Discoverer]

Bullpens aren't really a thing you worry about a year in advance, they're not overly difficult to assemble and the volatility usually means a lot of good relievers last year won't be in 2017 and a lot of bad relievers now will come out of nowhere.

Not to mention that it's much cheaper to replace Sanchez in the bullpen than it would be to replace him in the rotation.

 

[Swervin81]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/162293280/blue-jays-aaron-sanchez-aims-to-start?tcid=tw_share

Sanchez finished last season at 190 pounds, but he claims to have since added approximately 25 pounds of muscle. The expectation is that his increased mass will give him more endurance in games and improve his ability to bounce back between starts.

25 lbs of muscle in 3 months?

I'm sorry, but WHAT?!?!?!?!?!

Like, okay, even if he took all the PED's in the world, gaining 25 lbs of pure muscle in just 3 months is beyond physically impossible. He probably just made that **** up on the spot lol. Even 10 lbs in 3 months is pretty much impossible. I mean, maybe you gain 15 lbs of muscle in an entire year, maybe 15 lbs.

 

[Kurtz]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/162293280/blue-jays-aaron-sanchez-aims-to-start?tcid=tw_share



25 lbs of muscle in 3 months?

I'm sorry, but WHAT?!?!?!?!?!

Like, okay, even if he took all the PED's in the world, gaining 25 lbs of pure muscle in just 3 months is beyond physically impossible. He probably just made that **** up on the spot lol. Even 10 lbs in 3 months is pretty much impossible. I mean, maybe you gain 15 lbs of muscle in an entire year, maybe 15 lbs.

Adding 25 pounds of muscle in an off season seems like a terrible idea for any baseball player, let alone a pitcher. I think the author made a mistake, however, Sanchez said he added 25 pounds of MASS. Likely quite a bit of it is fat, which for a twig like Sanchez may be a positive.

 

[theaub]

He said 25 pounds, not 25 pounds of muscle. Not sure where they got that from.

 

[The Nemesis]

Don't want Gallardo, not for a comp pick. I'd also prefer to start moving Osuna back to starter because it's potentially a huge waste to just leave him in the pen. The longer he stays in the pen, the more likely it is that he never gets out.

Also was reading this. more well-reasoned out arguments (and this time from a more mainstream, non-fangraphs writer) that the save is a dumb, dumb, dumb stat that makes baseball people do and think silly things and pay out ridiculous excess money.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14603397/reimagining-baseball-ban-save

 

[TootooTrain]

Don't want Gallardo, not for a comp pick. I'd also prefer to start moving Osuna back to starter because it's potentially a huge waste to just leave him in the pen. The longer he stays in the pen, the more likely it is that he never gets out.

Also was reading this. more well-reasoned out arguments (and this time from a more mainstream, non-fangraphs writer) that the save is a dumb, dumb, dumb stat that makes baseball people do and think silly things and pay out ridiculous excess money.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14603397/reimagining-baseball-ban-save

I say Osuna is fine for one more season in the bullpen. Not alot of mileage on the arm. Would rather be careful in that regard. 2 seasons pitching in relief isn't a detriment to his development if the organization so chooses that he's a better starter. Sanchez is closer to that fork in the road where they should probably decide what type of roll he's best suited for. Which is why I think they'd rather have him starting.

 

[Kurtz]

Don't want Gallardo, not for a comp pick. I'd also prefer to start moving Osuna back to starter because it's potentially a huge waste to just leave him in the pen. The longer he stays in the pen, the more likely it is that he never gets out.

Also was reading this. more well-reasoned out arguments (and this time from a more mainstream, non-fangraphs writer) that the save is a dumb, dumb, dumb stat that makes baseball people do and think silly things and pay out ridiculous excess money.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14603397/reimagining-baseball-ban-save

It's funny, but the author trips himself up when he writes this:

Top of the ninth. Visiting team holds a one-run lead. The closer starts warming up feverishly. Then, whaddyaknow, somebody bops a three-run bomb. Lead inflates to four runs. The closer sits back down. Why? Because it's no longer a save situation.

Then the first two hitters reach base in the bottom of the ninth. Guess what happens? In comes the closer, even though it's still a four-run game. But now the tying run is on deck. So it's back to being a save situation.

It's not so much that it's a non-save situation, but rather a high leverage vs low leverage situation. 4 runs up and no one on, is a low leverage situation. Trying run on deck in the bottom of the 9th, and it's a higher leverage situation. You don't want to use your best pitcher (usually your closer) in a low leverage situation, but you do in a high leverage one. The save itself is almost incidental in this instance.

Saves/Blown Saves are mostly just a so-so proxy for pitcher performance in high leverage situations. But we have other stats that more directly address that now, so yeah, saves, while I think useful in the past, are not optimal today.

 

[Kurtz]

I say Osuna is fine for one more season in the bullpen. Not alot of mileage on the arm. Would rather be careful in that regard. 2 seasons pitching in relief isn't a detriment to his development if the organization so chooses that he's a better starter. Sanchez is closer to that fork in the road where they should probably decide what type of roll he's best suited for. Which is why I think they'd rather have him starting.

We had a debate about this I think a couple months ago. The problem is that historically, there have been either zero, or extremely few pitchers that spent 2 full seasons in the pen, and then transitioned successfully into a starter role.

1 full season in the pen? No problem, St Louis does this all the time. But open your career with 2 full years in the pen and it seems you're destined to remain there.

 

[TootooTrain]

We had a debate about this I think a couple months ago. The problem is that historically, there have been either zero, or extremely few pitchers that spent 2 full seasons in the pen, and then transitioned successfully into a starter role.

1 full season in the pen? No problem, St Louis does this all the time. But open your career with 2 full years in the pen and it seems you're destined to remain there.

That depends ofcourse on necessity vs ability when it comes to the big leagues. Osuna hasn't tried and failed. Where as Sanchez has tried, with mixed results. Interesting topic for sure.

 

[Discoverer]

It's funny, but the author trips himself up when he writes this:

Top of the ninth. Visiting team holds a one-run lead. The closer starts warming up feverishly. Then, whaddyaknow, somebody bops a three-run bomb. Lead inflates to four runs. The closer sits back down. Why? Because it's no longer a save situation.

Then the first two hitters reach base in the bottom of the ninth. Guess what happens? In comes the closer, even though it's still a four-run game. But now the tying run is on deck. So it's back to being a save situation.

It's not so much that it's a non-save situation, but rather a high leverage vs low leverage situation. 4 runs up and no one on, is a low leverage situation. Trying run on deck in the bottom of the 9th, and it's a higher leverage situation. You don't want to use your best pitcher (usually your closer) in a low leverage situation, but you do in a high leverage one. The save itself is almost incidental in this instance.

Saves/Blown Saves are mostly just a so-so proxy for pitcher performance in high leverage situations. But we have other stats that more directly address that now, so yeah, saves, while I think useful in the past, are not optimal today.

A better example would be a three-run lead in the ninth, closer warms up, solo homerun, closer sits down. If it was really about leverage, that single run wouldn't make much of a difference because the leverage with a three-run lead and one inning to go is pretty low anyway. But most of the time (historically, anyway) it's not about leverage; it's about whether or not it's a "save situation".

 

[Discoverer]

That depends ofcourse on necessity vs ability when it comes to the big leagues. Osuna hasn't tried and failed. Where as Sanchez has tried, with mixed results. Interesting topic for sure.

Osuna's an interesting case all around since the sample size of pitchers breaking into the majors at his age and with so few innings under his belt has to be remarkably small. It's a unique situation, so I don't think it's as simple as looking at what we consider standard comparables.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

What do you guys see our pitching looking like? Some big names still unsigned.

I think Osuna stays in the Pen. Him, Cecil and Storen have potential to be insane.

Dickey, Stroman, Estrada, Gallardo (I'm predicting we sign him ) will all have spots. Where does that leave Happ, Sanchez and Hutch? Sanchez' stuff is so good but unpredictable. Should he be in the Pen? I duno. Hutch has even more issues.

People realize that Gallardo costs a pick right? And that he's pretty bad on top of that. Unless you're looking at different numbers than I am.

 

[Kurtz]

A better example would be a three-run lead in the ninth, closer warms up, solo homerun, closer sits down. If it was really about leverage, that single run wouldn't make much of a difference because the leverage with a three-run lead and one inning to go is pretty low anyway. But most of the time (historically, anyway) it's not about leverage; it's about whether or not it's a "save situation".

Well yes, that 3 run, no one on base situation is what makes the save merely a so-so proxy for high leverage as opposed to an excellent proxy. But it's also the lowest leverage save situation scenario. Most save situations, I'm sure you'd agree, come with considerably higher leverage.

I think the author's general point is pretty sound: Bring your best reliever into the highest leverage late-inning situation, regardless if it's the 9th or innings earlier. But we've (I mean us, not necessarily managers) have known that this is the way to go for a little while. It just so happens that a save situation is on average a higher leverage situation than a randomly sampled BP appearance, and a prominence of blown saves vs completed saves is thus a decent proxy of a pitcher's performance in those higher leverage appearances.

 

[TF97]

Antonio Bastardo to the Mets

 

[Kurtz]

Antonio Bastardo to the Mets

2/$12. Seems like a lot to pay to a lefty specialist (even if he's one of the best), but that seems to have been the trade-off to keep the years so short.

Still, that's one option off the table, and we do need another capable relief guy if Sanchez is serious about starting.

 

[as Pure as Evil]

I gotta agree with a few of you with the target of choice (sp) would have to be cliff Lee, gives us another lefty. if he can even get to 60 % of what he was it would be great.

I would also take a flyer on pedro alverez , if no comp pick is attached to him, he could be a good piece at the right price. Justin Morneau could also be targeted

( rp) clippard, Holland(incentive based for next year.) A Crow

but other then that its mostly unknowns, as it is the ones ive listed half have to be listed as reclamation projects

 

[Dr.Funk]

I gotta agree with a few of you with the target of choice (sp) would have to be cliff Lee, gives us another lefty. if he can even get to 60 % of what he was it would be great.

I would also take a flyer on pedro alverez , if no comp pick is attached to him, he could be a good piece at the right price. Justin Morneau could also be targeted

( rp) clippard, Holland(incentive based for next year.) A Crow

but other then that its mostly unknowns, as it is the ones ive listed half have to be listed as reclamation projects

Why would we look at more first basemen?

 

[Swervin81]

Why would we look at more first basemen?

Cola is due for a seismic drop off (dude had the 7th luckiest season of all time per BABIP) and Smoak's inability to hit curveballs and not being a good enough hitter as a 1B.

 

[tml19]

Kawasaki looking to sign with a NL team. Good thing he isn't going to be our first call up anymore.

 

[habamillions]

Kawasaki looking to sign with a NL team. Good thing he isn't going to be our first call up anymore.

Looks like the cubs on a minor league deal