Blue Jays Discussion: Let the post-winter-meeting, pre-spring-training baseball withdrawl commence!

[Cor]

Joe Blanton to the Dodgers

 

[FreeBird]

Joe Blanton to the Dodgers

Now if we can keep Stroman and Sanchez away from Birmingham Alabama, the last administration had a hard time avoiding that, with their young pitchers.

 

[Eyedea]

actually, if you look at the top 10-15 gb% you see more low babips than high.

and sanchez' 17.8hr/fb% as an SP is just as likely to be due regression.

and the most encouraging part of his stint as SP was the drastic improvement in bb% by the end of it.

Those with under .300 BABIP and >50% GB rate: Dallas Keuchel, Felix Hernandez, Jake Arrieta, Garrett Richards, Kyle Gibson, Chris Heston, Sonny Gray, Mike Leake, Kyle Hendricks, Francisco Liriano, Jimmy Nelson, Clayton Kershaw.

Out of 22 pitchers, that's 12. Obviously that's a majority, but we can excuse Heston and Hendricks considering they are .04> of .300, a rather insignificant margin. So yes, close to 50 percent of the extreme groundball starters have a below average BABIP. 9 of those 10 pitchers also have an above average swinging strike rate (>9.3%). The only one that did not was Mike Leake.

Mike Leake is noted as a character of consistency, but there are several flaws with his batted profile type. The plus is his obvious ability to generate groundballs, another is his ability to limit walks (although this past year was the highest since his rookie season), but his negatives are obviously his inability to strikeout players, as well as his proneness to liners (as well as home runs).

The only saving grace, to this point, is that Leake doesn’t allow many fly balls, and his relatively strong batted-ball mix keyed by his high grounder rate conceivably could carry the day despite the relatively loud nature of his FLY/LD contact allowed. Leake allowed actual grounder production of .172 AVG-.181 SLG last season, good for a minuscule Unadjusted Contact Score of 43. Once you take authority into account, however, that figure jumps to 112. Yes, he allows harder-than-average grounder authority as well. On all BIP types, there is a huge gap between Leake’s 83 and 111 Unadjusted and Adjusted Contact Scores, respectively. That is by far the largest negative differential among 2015 MLB ERA qualifiers; in other words, he was the luckiest starter in baseball last season.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-upcoming-mike-leake-mistake/

Essentially what this boils down to is the limitations of groundball/contact oriented pitchers. Batters typically hit for a higher average on groundballs than flyballs, that's a fact. If a groundball pitcher is not suppressing runners by limiting his walks and allowing for lower contact rates with swinging strikes, then ultimately there isn't much potential ceiling. Leake has had the advantage of working with a great Reds defence over his career which has certainly helped raise his floor. Sanchez could potentially have that as well with the Jays. What I am arguing however is that he has not taken a step forward in actualizing any sort of effective talent as a starter. He hasn't shown pitchability, refinement, command, control, whatever. At this point it's velocity and flashes of dominance. His improvement over four or so starts at the MLB level does not provide any sort of proof to the matter. If he is to be a starter going forward, then he should be working on that in Buffalo.

 

[theaub]

State of the Franchise is Feb 4 if you were eagerly counting down to when the general public can ask moronic questions about AA

 

[Eyedea]

State of the Franchise is Feb 4 if you were eagerly counting down to when the general public can ask moronic questions about AA

And/Or David Price. I can't wait.

 

[The Nemesis]

or real grass

 

[Canada4Gold]

or real grass

real grass is like a real GM. Just a myth

 

[The Nemesis]

real grass is like a real GM. Just a myth

We would've won a world series last year if we had real grass. And a real GM would've gotten us real grass.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

We would've won a world series last year if we had real grass. And a real GM would've gotten us real grass.

....Or a real GM.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Now if we can keep Stroman and Sanchez away from Birmingham Alabama, the last administration had a hard time avoiding that, with their young pitchers.

You're better than that.

 

[Discoverer]

....Or a real GM.

If we had real grass we'd have a real GM and a real backup catcher and a real ace.

 

[Schenn]

What's your guys opinion on signing Bastardo for a MR spot? Would you's think he would be a good fit or just redundant in our rotation. I read on MLBTR he'd be looking for a contract like Sipp's but I'd be more comfortable with him under contract for a max 2 years.

 

[Discoverer]

What's your guys opinion on signing Bastardo for a MR spot? Would you's think he would be a good fit or just redundant in our rotation. I read on MLBTR he'd be looking for a contract like Sipp's but I'd be more comfortable with him under contract for a max 2 years.

Something like the Blanton signing to fill that last spot and/or give them more flexibility to try Sanchez in the rotation would have been a great move. I don't see much of a need for another lefty, though, especially if it means committing more than one year.

 

[tml19]

What's your guys opinion on signing Bastardo for a MR spot? Would you's think he would be a good fit or just redundant in our rotation. I read on MLBTR he'd be looking for a contract like Sipp's but I'd be more comfortable with him under contract for a max 2 years.

Depends on the price. Can never have enough good arms.

 

[Swervin81]

You're better than that.

Especially since the only guys we had undergo TJ recently are Hutch and Drabek (when we had 3 starters get hurt in the span of 4 games ).

 

[The Nemesis]

....Or a real GM.

But how can you get a real GM if you don't have a real GM to begin with, but you need one to get a real GM?

 

[Swervin81]

But how can you get a real GM if you don't have a real GM to begin with, but you need one to get a real GM?

Good old catch-22. Need to have a real GM to get a real GM, can't get a real GM because you don't have one.

 

[one77]

Stroman
Estrada
Sanchez
Dickey
Happ
-Chavez/Hutchison/Loup/Cecil/Storen/Osuna

I'm good with that

 

[TootooTrain]

The more I think about it, the more I'd be willing to have Hutch start in Buffalo to keep him stretched out as a starter if he doesn't make the rotation out of the gate in place of Sanchez.

Leaves: Osuna, Storen, Cecil, Loup, Chavez, Biagini, Schultz/Tepera/Venditte/Cole.

Could use one more solid righty.

 

[Discoverer]

The more I think about it, the more I'd be willing to have Hutch start in Buffalo to keep him stretched out as a starter if he doesn't make the rotation out of the gate in place of Sanchez.

Leaves: Osuna, Storen, Cecil, Loup, Chavez, Biagini, Schultz/Tepera/Venditte/Cole.

Could use one more solid righty.

Yeah, I feel like the battle for the 5th spot will be mostly between Hutchison and Sanchez with Chavez basically defaulting into the long-man/6th starter role. If Hutchison wins, Sanchez is back in the pen. If Sanchez wins, Hutchison starts in Buffalo. Either way, they have seven viable major-league starters right now... that's a nice feeling.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Yeah, I feel like the battle for the 5th spot will be mostly between Hutchison and Sanchez with Chavez basically defaulting into the long-man/6th starter role. If Hutchison wins, Sanchez is back in the pen. If Sanchez wins, Hutchison starts in Buffalo. Either way, they have seven viable major-league starters right now... that's a nice feeling.

I can see both Hutch and Sanchez starting the season in Triple-A, with Chavez the #5. Then, eventually both assume starting roles in the majors come May/June with Chavez becoming the swing man.

It would allow both young pitchers to get right (Sanchez with the cutter/change against live batting, Hutch with his tool box development against live batting), while taking advantage of early season Chavez, which has tended to be far superior to mid/late season Chavez (fatigue related deterioration).

 

[FreeBird]

You're better than that.

Just want to be prudent. Joe was in Winter Haven home of the Red Sox years ago and saw a couple of guys taking BP, walked down to see who it was, and low and behold it was Jim Rice and the instructor was none other than Teddy Ballgame him self. Just some History for you youngsters.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Just want to be prudent. Joe was in Winter Haven home of the Red Sox years ago and saw a couple of guys taking BP, walked down to see who it was, and low and behold it was Jim Rice and the instructor was none other than Teddy Ballgame him self. Just some History for you youngsters.

Prudence is fundamental. Reminds me of the time I caught the ferry over to Shelbyville. I needed a new heel for my shoe, so, I decided to go to Morganville, which is what they called Shelbyville in those days. So I tied an onion to my belt, which was the style at the time. Now, to take the ferry cost a nickel, and in those days, nickels had pictures of bumblebees on 'em. 'Give me five bees for a quarter,' you'd say.
Now where were we? Oh yeah: the important thing was I had an onion on my belt, which was the style at the time. They didn't have white onions because of the war. The only thing you could get was those big yellow ones...

 

[Woodman19]

Prudence is fundamental. Reminds me of the time I caught the ferry over to Shelbyville. I needed a new heel for my shoe, so, I decided to go to Morganville, which is what they called Shelbyville in those days. So I tied an onion to my belt, which was the style at the time. Now, to take the ferry cost a nickel, and in those days, nickels had pictures of bumblebees on 'em. 'Give me five bees for a quarter,' you'd say.
Now where were we? Oh yeah: the important thing was I had an onion on my belt, which was the style at the time. They didn't have white onions because of the war. The only thing you could get was those big yellow ones...

 

[FreeBird]

Prudence is fundamental. Reminds me of the time I caught the ferry over to Shelbyville. I needed a new heel for my shoe, so, I decided to go to Morganville, which is what they called Shelbyville in those days. So I tied an onion to my belt, which was the style at the time. Now, to take the ferry cost a nickel, and in those days, nickels had pictures of bumblebees on 'em. 'Give me five bees for a quarter,' you'd say.
Now where were we? Oh yeah: the important thing was I had an onion on my belt, which was the style at the time. They didn't have white onions because of the war. The only thing you could get was those big yellow ones...

How many bumble bees would get you one of those Big Yellers.