Out of all the players that finished with more points then Draisaitl, only 5 of them have a higher cap hit. So for 8.5 million Draisaitl better be a consistent top 20 scorer for the next 7 years
Drai was 36 place in scoring although tied for 34th with two other players that played more games. Anyway, 30 of the players ahead of him are considerably older. Vast majority are in their prime and not still figuring it out.
But the bolded in your post is interesting. As in Drai better deliver because look at his cap hit. Well lets look at it then.
He's just coming off 925K ELC contract. In 15-16 he was 2nd on the whole club in pts with 51/72GP. Two of the players the Oilers were paying 6M for had less pts, Eberle with 47 and RNH with an injury plagued 34. So one could easily argue Draisaitl was worth in the range of 6M that season.
So that he's 5M up on contribution that ELC year.
In 16-17 Draisaitl finished with an amazing 77pts. Again 2nd on the team and when combined with his spectacular playoffs total of 16pts its 93pts on the season combined. Eberle had 51pts and RNH 43. The amazing thing is Nuge had only 47pts in 95 combined games. Drai had TWICE as many on the year. Lets just say Drai was worth 7.5M last season and call it a day. Who could argue.
So that puts him 6.5M ahead of caphit on the year.
So that in the last 2 seasons Draisaitl on an ELC has performed consistent to exceeding his caphit value by 11.5M give or take a bit.
This year Drai finishes with 70pts in 78GP and so serves up value around 7M (considering he's consistently busting totals of the players that the org has chronically paid 6m for. (Think about the Lucic contract as well) So in established Oiler payscale precedent its hard to argue anything but that Drai comfortable exceeded 6M value this season. I would put it at 7M.
So that he's an overpay this season of around 1.5M
So this still puts Draisaitl up 10M in value served up.
A little contrary to a notion that Draisaitl is owing the club right about now..
Finally, this is year 1 of an 8yr deal. Contracts will likely go up considerably during that time frame. With LTC you don't often expect to get value in the first years. You expect value as the contract ensues. 8.5M for Draisaitl could look like value in even a couple years.