Post-Game Talk: Leafs win 3-2 OT!

[18leafsfan18]

I believe they adjust for quality of schedule; not sure how exactly.

Depending on how they do it, the results could be drastically different.

For example: Are they using a projection of Leafs under Keefe or just Leafs overall ? / Are they taking other teams injuries into consideration etc.

I assume since it's The Athletic they have done a fairly deep dive into all team's situations, but some context would be nice, so we can know how the projections were made.

 

[weems]

How do they project the final standings ?

Just use the team's current Win % / Lose % / OT % ?

I'm really not sure tbh.

Just found it interesting that they have us finishing with the 9th most points in the league.

That's pretty good considering we punted the first 20+ games and have had significant injuries. Also speaks to how terrible the Western conference is this season.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Shout out to Barrie. Best game I have seen him play live all year. Well done. Looks like the team mtg did him some good. Until last night I never saw him give it his all fighting for loose pucks in our end. And it was multiple times. I don't really care about his offence but it was awesome last night but I loved his fights for pucks along walls and even in front of our net. He does not and did not knock anyone over which is fine but he stood up and fought hard with his stick to turn over pucks which he did. And it led to no goals against when he was on the ice. Let's see if he can keep playing like that. Sometimes a guy can turn over a new leaf. He has unreal skill and skating but when he fights for pucks he becomes a force. Keep it up Barrie!!!!!!!

Another shout out to Soupy. That is what we need a guy who gives us a chance in a tight game. Another guy who fights. We all love a fighter.

Lastly heh JT and Hyman wow you guys fought hard when ill. Loads of respect. Most guys would have mailed it in. When your captain shows up it is infectious.

The kid line all looked like they had the flu. But last night they were not needed which is great to see. Not sure I like it because Mitch not getting enough puck to create. Between Willy and Matty there is not enough puck to go around if you know what I mean.

And Kappy now that was some AWESOME speed dude. You kicked it into 6th gear. and nice move to finish. I need more Kappy every night like that man.

Solid grind it out win. We will need plenty more like that down the stretch. We have to learn how to win those kinda games.

 

[18leafsfan18]

I'm really not sure tbh.

Just found it interesting that they have us finishing with the 9th most points in the league.

That's pretty good considering we punted the first 20+ games and have had significant injuries. Also speaks to how terrible the Western conference is this season.

Yeah and have the leafs 10 points back from 3rd place in the league (Which most would consider Elite level teams). Despite what you described above.

 

[ottomaddox]

Campbell in net does give one a more secure felling he will make the save when needed.

Overall he has been pretty solid and 5 of 6 points in the bank is huge to stay in the highly contested playoff race.

Agreed. I really don't want to see fans and media turning on Andersen (creating a goalie controversy) if he faulters a bit. I like Campbell, but TOR has a competant starting goalie.

Points! Points!

 

[KuleminFan41]

I agree, however, if he ends up being more reliable than Andersen, you'd have to consider dealing Andersen to save cap space. However, you better get another reliable 1b goalie, or, a competent backup goalie.

I don't necessarily disagree in theory, but goalies don't tend to be very expensive so I don't see Andersen commanding 8+ million. Campbell is already 28 with 58 games under his belt before coming to Toronto. I don't really see him being a true starter and like you said, The Leafs would end up right back in the same place by having to find a decent enough back up goalie for Campbell.

 

[Rogie]

I'd like to see Clifford with Matthews and Marner

I can't tell if you are serious or not, sorry, are you serious?

 

[18leafsfan18]

Shout out to Barrie. Best game I have seen him play live all year. Well done. Looks like the team mtg did him some good. Until last night I never saw him give it his all fighting for loose pucks in our end. And it was multiple times. I don't really care about his offence but it was awesome last night but I loved his fights for pucks along walls and even in front of our net. He does not and did not knock anyone over which is fine but he stood up and fought hard with his stick to turn over pucks which he did. And it led to no goals against when he was on the ice. Let's see if he can keep playing like that. Sometimes a guy can turn over a new leaf. He has unreal skill and skating but when he fights for pucks he becomes a force. Keep it up Barrie!!!!!!!

Another shout out to Soupy. That is what we need a guy who gives us a chance in a tight game. Another guy who fights. We all love a fighter.

Lastly heh JT and Hyman wow you guys fought hard when ill. Loads of respect. Most guys would have mailed it in. When your captain shows up it is infectious.

The kid line all looked like they had the flu. But last night they were not needed which is great to see. Not sure I like it because Mitch not getting enough puck to create. Between Willy and Matty there is not enough puck to go around if you know what I mean.

And Kappy now that was some AWESOME speed dude. You kicked it into 6th gear. and nice move to finish. I need more Kappy every night like that man.

Solid grind it out win. We will need plenty more like that down the stretch. We have to learn how to win those kinda games.

Agree with this completely.

About the bolded. I think if they connected on a couple of the chances they had, and they had chances but pucks just hopped over sticks or mishandled a bit, most would think they had a good game.

Just all looked to be fighting it a bit.

 

[Mess]

Another nail biter and a recalled goal away from a loss. Too many shots allowed but AZ is not a sniping team so they can afford to trade chances (you would think at least) although I don't think that was a strategy, it just happened. I can't picture this team doing much damage in the playoffs if this is how they win but at least with Campbell I am picturing the playoffs again. Take the 2 points and use the 25 games to get actually rolling.

Too many SH shots and opportunities allowed. I think AZ got 6 or 7 SH shots on net during this game. Leafs PP created more dangerous scoring chances for Coyotes.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Campbell is already 28 with 58 games under his belt before coming to Toronto. I don't really see him being a true starter

While Campbell is clearly the backup at the moment, it should be noted that Andersen started with us at 27 with only 125 games under his belt, and hadn't been an established starter.

 

[Warden of the North]

Id like to know what method hes using that gives us an 80% chance at the playoffs

 

[Mess]

Agreed. I really don't want to see fans and media turning on Andersen (creating a goalie controversy) if he faulters a bit. I like Campbell, but TOR has a competant starting goalie.

Points! Points!

Campbell's play may incentivize and push Andersen, and that might not be a bad thing as competition tends to bring out the best in some players.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

This arena was built for the Raps first, to be fair. MLSE should build a new arena for the Leafs, if anything.

Just renovate the ACC and build a new ice plant. You aren't going to get an arena with a better location.

 

[weems]

Id like to know what method hes using that gives us an 80% chance at the playoffs

If I had to guess it prolly incorporates strength of schedule, how many back to backs we have, how many games we get a team on the 2nd of a back to back while we're rested (like last night).

There was a post in the playoff odds thread which showed we have something like 5 games where we get a team playing their second game of a back to back while we didnt play the night before.

In comparison Florida has zero of those cushy spots left.

 

[Blueboy]

I’m a fan of the Kerfoot - Tavares - Hyman line, but I really don’t think the Nylander - Matthews - Marner will work, too many puck carriers, no retrievers.

Hyman is so valuable.

On another note, I thought Aberg looked good with his limited TOI.

I think Timashov may be on the way out, Goat has been out a bit too, I like the C depth he offers but really needs to bring his energy and physicality more consistently.

 

[Blueboy]

Just renovate the ACC and build a new ice plant. You aren't going to get an arena with a better location.

Where do they play while that’s going on? Scotiabank is really kinda crappy, poor sight lines, disorganized amenities, overall weak design is seen with the flow of traffic.

I think if there’s a new arena to go anywhere it means the end of Medieval Times lmao. Sell that location downtown core for BIG bucks, lose no/little money building a state of the art facility at Exhibition Place. A ton of parking too.

I hate the Sabres, but their rink is a beauty.

 

[Mess]

I’m a fan of the Kerfoot - Tavares - Hyman line, but I really don’t think the Nylander - Matthews - Marner will work, too many puck carriers, no retrievers.

Hyman is so valuable.

On another note, I thought Aberg looked good with his limited TOI.

I think Timashov may be on the way out, Goat has been out a bit too, I like the C depth he offers but really needs to bring his energy and physicality more consistently.

Its interesting watching Keefe give Hyman PP time, as he has earned it.

We knew the last coach really appreciated Zach, but his new one seems to love him and use him even more, and expanded his role further likely rewarding his effort with opportunity.

I'm a big fan of Hyman as well as he is a glue player and helps hold things together.

 

[Blueboy]

Its interesting watching Keefe give Hyman PP time, as he has earned it.

We knew the last coach really appreciated Zach, but his new one seems to love him and use him even more, and expanded his role further likely rewarding his effort with opportunity.

I'm a big fan of Hyman as well as he is a glue player and helps hold things together.

Hyman is the heart of this team for sure. Fans have finally quieted down about taking him off our skill lines, only took 3 years...

 

[Bluelines]

Leafs finally caught a break and had victory snatched away from defeat.

That call was a 50/50 and it went our way..

We really needed those 2 points as Florida also won yesterday.

That call was textbook goalie interference, it was never in doubt. Wait it was the Leafs? OK that makes it 50/50 ...

 

[BlueBaron]

It's amazing to me that people are still so negative. If we just keep up our point pace under Keefe, we get into the playoffs easily. We're just coming off a stretch where we got 5 out of 6 points without our starting goaltender, our #1 d-man, and several key players sick. Yet I still see people talk about how we should be sellers, how they hope we get a top 10 pick, and that it's over for the season. I just can't fathom how people think.

Playoff Tank Nation always comes out at this time. They think success is measured by how your prospect pool is ranked and the post season is an inconvenience. Trade your pending FA's and inform your players you have no faith in them.

I will never understand them but they could just be so scarred from the bad years that winning is inconceivable to them? Maybe they are just draft fans? Hard to wrap your head around.

 

[Warden of the North]

Stepan pushed his way into Campbell. Its not a debateable call at all.

Sidenote - have we had a coaches challenge sincd Babs got fired? It seemed like Babs challenged and lost a call once a week.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Where do they play while that’s going on? Scotiabank is really kinda crappy, poor sight lines, disorganized amenities, overall weak design is seen with the flow of traffic.

I think if there’s a new arena to go anywhere it means the end of Medieval Times lmao. Sell that location downtown core for BIG bucks, lose no/little money building a state of the art facility at Exhibition Place. A ton of parking too.

I hate the Sabres, but their rink is a beauty.

You can do a pretty extensive renovation over a summer. Don't have to do the entire renovation in one shot either. Get the ice plant and new pad installed along with whatever other stuff they want to do and then continue on and finish it off in year two.

 

[BlueBaron]

Seems like a bit of a loophole then, where we could essentially protect both Andersen and Campbell by signing Andersen's extension in the week or so between the expansion draft and free agency, instead of before.

You are suggesting exposing our starter and letting him become an UFA?

Don't see us doing that, we'll expose Campbell and they will ignore him for a forward.

 

[Commander Clueless]

Anyone remember when I said that I liked Hyman, but I think he's more of a really good 3rd liner?

Yeah, that seems stupid in hindsight. The Zack Attack is a beast.


Also: We may have paid a pretty penny for Jack, but my very early conclusion is I think it was worth it. He's solid back there.

 

[ToDavid]

How do they project the final standings ?

Just use the team's current Win % / Lose % / OT % ?

The very brief and simplified overview is that Dom's model is built from players up. Each player has a game score which is effectively the number of goals you expect them to contribute. He simulates the season using these game scores to assign a probabilities to the outcome of each game (I believe it also factors in home/away and rest). So based on the standings today, in 39,500 of 50,000 simulations (79%) of the remainder of the season the Leafs make the playoffs.

The reason we have such a strong probability is because the Leafs rank fairly well in these models, and Florida fairly poorly (different model but similar idea, for example, Moneypuck has us 6th in its power rankings and Florida 18th). This is the reason we stayed neck and neck with Florida in playoff probability for the last few weeks despite falling behind them in point percentage. Now that they've stumbled for the past few games and we're ahead in point percentage, you can see our clear advantage in the models.