I know this isn’t completely finalized, and it’s still some time away, but what else are we going to talk about related to hockey? Some other team board’s already started this thread so may as well. I will go over every team of how they stack up with one another, including each line.
For the Leafs, I will be looking at the stats from when Keefe was hired for more relevance and accuracy.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Overall Record: 36-25-9 (tied for 12th in PTS%)
After Coaching Change: 27-15-5 (8th in PTS%)
Columbus Blue Jackets
Overall Record: 33-22-15 (tied for 12th PTS%}
Offense
5 on 5
| 5 on 5 | Maple Leafs | Blue Jackets |
| GF/60 | 2.83(4th) | 2.16(26th) |
| CF/60 | 58.74(7th) | 54.1(23rd) |
| SCF/60 | 30.63(2nd) | 24.72(25th) |
| HCF/60 | 12.08(6th) | 9.06(29th) |
| xGF/60 | 2.59(2nd) | 2.2(tied for 16th) |
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Not surprises here, Leafs are the superior offensive team by a mile. They score a lot more and generate a lot more. The Jackets that are not known for their offense, is showed well here. The Leafs have the better offensive players but we already knew that, and might not be the aspect that decided the series.
Power Play
| PP | Maple Leafs | Blue Jackets |
| PP% | 26.4(2nd) | 16.4%(24th) |
| CF/60 | 93.23(19th) | 83.96(29th) |
| SCF/60 | 52.67(10th) | 39.5(29th) |
| HCF/60 | 17.8(23rd) | 14.51(30th) |
| xGF/60 | 6.52(17th) | 5.63(27th) |
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Leafs have the better numbers on the PP as you should expect, but they are average at best for a team with offensive stars. Don’t let the ranking fool you, it is a result of a high shooting % In fact, if not for a recent climb, The Leafs numbers were where the Jackets numbers were which are awful in every metric. Jackets have even worse luck offensively on the PP by league rank, and would be helpful if they can improve it a bit. Getting back their injured players will help. I’m interested at what Sheldon Keefe does on the PP. Does he put Rielly on the 1st unit in place of Barrie? If Sandin plays, does he stay on the 2nd PP? It’s unlikely he removes any of the big 4 from the 1st unit, but what does the 2nd unit look like? If Keefe plays Robertson, does he play on that unit? There are lots of questions, but simply put, the PP numbers need to be better than they are. Leafs get the advantage, but it’s not an amazing PP.
Defence
5 on 5
| 5 on 5 Numbers | Maple Leafs | Blue Jackets |
| GA/60 | 2.68(20th) | 2.11(5th) |
| CA/60 | 55.68(15th) | 56.06(17th) |
| SCA/60 | 27.5(18th) | 24.89(10th) |
| HDCA/60 | 11.14(17th) | 8.82(2nd) |
| xGA/60 | 2.33(tied for 15th) | 2.04(3rd) |
| SV%: | 91.29(23rd) | 92.81(5th) |
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I am going to say this again. Leafs aren’t as bad defensively as they are made out to be, and the numbers support this. They are however average at best, and the will face a team who plays solid defence, and takes away the prime scoring chances well. The question is will they be able to slow down a team like the Leafs, who generates offense at a great level. Can the Leafs defence hold against a poor offense, but one that will be mostly healthy? The Jackets also got much better goaltending then the Leafs.
Columbus gets the advantage here by a decent amount
Penalty Killing
| PK Numbers | Maple Leafs | Blue Jackets |
| PK% | 80.9(12th) | 81.7%(10th) |
| CA/60 | 89.25(10th) | 84.13(5th) |
| SCA/60 | 44.17(6th) | 43.06(4th) |
| HDCA/60 | 15.63(3rd) | 13.82(1st) |
| xGA/60 | 5.5(3rd) | 5.31(1st) |
| SV% | 85.81(18th) | 86.75(13th) |
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These are 2 excellent PK teams. They don’t give up many shots or chances. Maple Leafs under Keefe have been a really good PK team, and this may surprise some people. The Jackets are truly elite though, and building off their defence at 5 on 5, they don’t give up much. The question for the Jackets will be can they continue it against a team with offensive stars, even though the Leafs PP numbers aren’t exactly convincing. The question is will Andersen perform, because he is the only reason the Leafs PK% is down.
I will give the Blue Jackets the edge here, but only slightly.
Overall just by looking at the stats, this is a good matchup where whatever one team is good at, and bad at, the other team is the opposite. Leafs are a great offensive team and can score with anyone, but their going to face a solid defensive team. On the other hand, Jackerts can’t do much on offense which might be helped with getting healthy, and the Leafs aren’t bad defensively. The special teams battle should be interesting. Leafs have the more dangerous personnel on the PP by a wide margin, but their underlying numbers aren’t great despite the high SH%, where the Jackets have an elite PK. The Jackets have an atrocious PP going against a good PK as well. The key for Toronto is if the PP catches fire. If it does, I think the Jackets might be in trouble. For Columbus, If they can get some production on the PP, and keep up their structural play and limit chances, that could put the series in their favour. Columbus will get their chances against an inconsistent defensive team, and if they start scoring, Leafs will be in tough.
Line Matchups (Potentially)
Forwards
| Line 1 | Hyman-Matthews-Marner | Nyquist-PLD-Atkinson |
| TOI | 374.02 | 103.04 |
| CF% | 52.31% | 50.48% |
| SCI% | 55.77% | 48.08% |
| HDCI% | 55.36% | 46.88% |
| XGF% | 56.71% | 50.60% |
| OSZ% | 56.50% | 62.50% |
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I think Keefe will put Matthews with Marner to start, but could change things up if he doesn’t like what he sees. This trio has been a solid line since Keefe first put them together, despite Marner really struggling at times this season. They have been a solid possession line, and controlled the play when on the ice. Hyman at times is what makes the line continue to tick even when the other 2 are off. There is some defensive issues usually from lacklustre plays from Marner, but he can turn his season around with a good playoffs. Keefe might go back with Nylander-Matthews as he did in the last game before the stoppage, but we haven’t been seen them consistently with another winger. The player that played with them the most is Johnsson who won’t be available, and followed by Kapanen who looked lost beside them, but Kapanen really transformed himself so maybe he works this time.
For Columbus, the forward lines are mere guesses at this point according to their board, but we might see this line to begin though. They have been okay as a line by the numbers, but at best break even with their competition. They also haven’t played enough minutes together to form a good conclusion though. One logical switch that should made is Bjorkstrand for Atkinson. The line’s TOI is about the same, but with Bjorkstrand, Nyquist-PLD have dominated with their xGF% at near 65%, and the zone starts are almost identical.
| Line 2 | Nylander-Tavares-Mikhavev | Texier-Wennberg-Bjorkstrand |
| TOI | 10:42 | 32:27 |
| CF% | 69.57% | 60.38% |
| SCF% | 69.23% | 57.89% |
| HDCF% | 66.67% | 80.00% |
| xGF% | 56.25% | 60.92% |
| OSZ% | 71.43% | 60.00% |
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The winger beside these two is just a guess, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Keefe put Mikhavev in a top 6 role, and this line is the only option if the top line stays together. Keefe really loves Mikhavev, so he might put him in the fire even coming off a serious injury. The numbers don’t mean anything with only 11 minutes on the ice together. If not Mikhavev, Keefe also put Kerfoot on the ice, and they played nearly 200 minutes with each other. This was one of the few criticisms people had of Keefe, where he continusly played Kerfoot on the line, despite him being better at centre. The line however was terrific by the numbers, and created a lot but also gave up a lot of goals mostly due to goaltending. It’s not my favourite line but Keefe might go with it again at some point.
This one I have no real idea on what this line will look, especially if Bjorkstrand is put on the top line
| Line 3 | Engvall-Kerfoot-Kapanen | Foligno-Jenner-Anderson |
| TOI | 76:00 | 63.48 |
| CF% | 61.07% | 45.53% |
| SCF% | 59.49% | 43.14% |
| HCDF% | 58.82% | 42.86% |
| xGF% | 58.37% | 44.80% |
| OSZ% | 48.15% | 42.31% |
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This line was amazing when they played, so people didn’t like when they kept getting broken up. They might have won 2 games on their own. The TOI isn’t overly big, but it’s enough to tell us they dominated, even with their zone starts not being overly favourable. This line should be kept if the season resumed, and even experiment with It more if there are warm up games before the play in round.
The big question for the Jackets is will Anderson play. His timeline is apparently mid july, so he probably will I have to guess, but if not, you might see the young Bemstorm play on the 3rd line.
| Line 4 | Clifford-Gauthier-Spezza | Robinson-Shore-Nash |
| TOI | 26:31 | 3:37 |
| CF% | 40.43% | 57.14% |
| SCF% | 35.71% | 33.33% |
| HCDF% | 37.50% | 0% |
| xGF% | 41.90% | 33.18% |
| OSZ% | 25.00% | 100% |
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This line is awful. They weren’t good at all, and clearly put the team in a disadvantage, but it’s only 26 minutes, so maybe this changes. One of the issues with the Leafs was depth scoring, and this line won’t help, so Keefe needs to figure this out. Malgin might get in a game here as well.
I’m not sure what the 4th line will look like, but it might include 2 of these 3. The Jackets have multiple players who can play different positions, so that complicates guessing the lines.
Depth Options for Toronto
Malgin
Korshkov
Brooks
Aberg
Petan
Depth Options for Columbus
Bemstorm
Gerbe
Stenlund
Matteau
Lilja
Defense
| Defensive Pair 1 | Rielly-Ceci | Werenski-Jones |
| TOI | 145:31 | 763.36 |
| CF% | 46.74% | 50.25% |
| SCF% | 46.72% | 48.51% |
| HDCF% | 44.44% | 49.12% |
| xGF% | 48.72% | 51.08% |
| OSZ% | 46.15% | 57.89% |
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I don’t like it, but I think we see the Rielly-Ceci pair again at least to start. I’m not sure Keefe has much of a choice, so hard to blame him. However, the results are in the numbers and the eye test. Rielly can’t defend his blueline, and Ceci just makes strange decisions with and without the puck. I guess you could shelter them more, but the starts aren’t bad right now, and you need to play one of your best defensemen. The decision on who to put Rielly with should be interesting. I don’t see Keefe scratching Ceci with him being used like a top 4 defenseman, while he was here. Keefe could go all offense with Rielly-Barrie again, but even against a poor offensive team, that’s still not a good idea for long stretches.
This is the key for the Jackets and mainly Jones. If he plays as well as he is capable, this could seriously have a big swing in the series. Werenski provides great support to him offensively, but the stabilizer and leader is Jones. The numbers aren’t great analytically, and the pair played sheltered offensive minutes, but this is still the best pair for the Jackets.
| Defensive Pair 2 | Muzzin-Holl | Gavrikov-Savard |
| TOI | 456.18 | 751.37 |
| CF% | 53.01% | 47.53% |
| SCF% | 54.27% | 50% |
| HDCF% | 55.56% | 48.68% |
| xGF% | 56.56% | 50.67% |
| OSZ% | 39.69% | 40.84% |
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The Leafs best D pair, and it’s not even close to being a debate. They excelled in a shutdown role, and were amazing even with tough zone starts. They have great chemistry with one another, and you could ride them in a game. Muzzin is the engine of this defence, and is the glue that prevents it from falling apart. Holl has had a solid season as he has got more duty under Keefe. He struggled a little bit down the stretch, but having Muzzin by his side should help him again. If the Leafs are going to do something defensively and be better than average, it might come down to these two.
Another set in stone pairing. Just like their counterpart, this is the defensive shutdown pairing for the Jackets. While their numbers are well below from the Muzzin-Holl pairing, Torts has decided to lean on them defensively, and they are close to break even as a pairing.
| Defensive Pair 3 | Dermott-Barrie | Murray-Nutivaara |
| TOI | 259.19 | 78.52 |
| CF% | 50.51% | 48.39% |
| SCF% | 50.21% | 46.58% |
| HDCF% | 52.08% | 50% |
| xGF% | 50.53% | 53.06% |
| OSZ% | 61.70% | 58.70% |
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All that’s left is Dermott and Barrie. They played a lot together, and broke even as a pair under heavily sheltered zone starts. We just don’t want them stuck in the defensive zone on a shift. Barrie has produced and struggled defensively which is not a surprise. Dermott was uneven, but he was really solid as the defacto #1 defenseman down the stretch with the injuries. Dermott might get a chance higher in the line up maybe even beside Rielly, but I still have my doubts if Keefe wants to do that.
Sandin could play a factor here, but he will only come in for Ceci, and I’m not sure if Keefe scratches Ceci. Liljegren is also available along with Rosen if need be. Keefe may go with the 7 defensemen route which he did a little bit during the injuries.
This is likely the pairing with Murray a lock, but could see Kukan in for Nutivvara. Their zone starts are shseltered, but not as much as the 3rd pairing for the Leafs. The Jackets pairing is also overall better by a slight margin.
Depth Options for Toronto
Sandin
Liljegren
Rosen
Depth Options for Columbus
Kukan
Peeke
Harrington
Goalies
| Starter | Andersen | Merzlikins |
GP
ESSV%
HDSV% | 52
.918%
.812% | 32
.926%
.834% |
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There is no question Andersen is starting. However he wasn’t very good this season. He only had one good month which was in November, and cost the team a few games this season under both coaches.
It’s still a question who starts but higher chance its Merzlikins. Just by looking at the numbers, it’s the right choice
| Backup | Campbell | Korpisalo |
GP
ESSV%
HDSV% | 6
.920%
.844% | 37
.919%
.818% |
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Campbell impressed in the games he played with the Leafs, and if Andersen falters, Keefe may have to make the difficult choice and go with Campbell.
There is still a good chance Korpisalo starts, so hard to say anything definitive right now.
Someone please fix any formatting issues
