Series Talk: Leafs vs Jackets- Series Preview and Discussion - II

[LeafsNation75]

Id agree nothing is set in stone but st this point is be surprised i hhe doesnt get at least 1-2 games against the Jackets.

I just dont see a guy like say the Goat as a lock unless they need him for centee
The atttaction of Robertson as a boost to the teams depth scoring will be too great toe them to pass up, especially against a weaker opponent in that first round

If Robertson did play would any games even in the play in round count towards his 9 games and burning the first year of his ELC, so it be no different if it was the regular season?

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Robertson going straight from CHL to nhl hockey is a huge jump. 1st overall picks typically struggle going from CHL to nhl regular season. Playoffs are an entire new level of hockey than the regular season.

We all want to see Robertson...but I think it is unlikely.

I don’t think anyone is going to be playing playoff level hockey here after 5 months off. Would usually agree on that but this is a bit different no.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

If Robertson did play would any games even in the play in round count towards his 9 games and burning the first year of his ELC, so it be no different if it was the regular season?

Someone told me qualifier games don’t count, I’m not sure because I hadn’t seen a link to it. I just read that the games played are only for regular season and playoffs. No way they could write in qualifier pre playoffs so i think he could play all with no effect on the entry level contract. I hope they play him every game if he deserves the chance.

It’s a free 5 game look from what i can tell

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Lineup Going into Game One:

Nylander - Matthews - Hyman
Mikheyev - - Tavares - -Marner
Kerfoot - - Spezza - - Kapanen
Engvall - - Gauthier - - Clifford

Rielly - Barrie
Muzzin - Holl
Dermott - Ceci

Andersen
Campbell

 

[67Leafs67]

As far as the conversation in this thread about Rielly not having a good season goes...I'm not overly convinced he didn't (at least, in relation to his usual standard of play). First of all, point production is an overrated way to evaluate defensemen (and even forwards, but especially defensemen), very disproportionate in our perceptions of a player's value over the course of a season. Secondly, Rielly's 2018-19 campaign was an outlier (in terms of production), not the normal. In fact, this 2019-20 season was pretty standard Rielly compared to 2018-19.

I don't think comparing his play this season to the outlier of a year he had last season is just grounds for saying he didn't have a great season. His primary assist rate (0.52 --> 0.48) and ixG (0.27-->0.24) rates at 5v5 were barely dropped, and he was still elite in transition play, one of his biggest assets. However, in 18-19, his shooting percentage ballooned to 8.62% and this year it regressed hard to 2.17%. Combine that with a decrease in PP ice-time with the addition of Tyson Barrie, and a lot more of it coming on the 2nd unit, and his production with the man advantage dropped from 21 points to 7 points.

Extrapolating from his past PP statistics, one can estimate with his old position on PP1, he'd probably have had ~14 PP points, bringing him up to 34 points, a 59 point pace. Give him last year's 5v5 shooting luck, and he'd have 8 goals at 5v5, bringing him up to 40 points, a 70 point pace...which is pretty much the same as his 2018-19 campaign. The point is, 2018-19 was full of good fortune, and 2019-20 was a bit skewed the other way...the real substance of the player is somewhere in the middle, but I don't buy that he was significantly worse this season.

Even Rielly himself said, “I think there were times last year where I’d shoot the puck and it would hit something and go in, and that’s just the way it was going. And this year it’s not necessarily going that way.”

 

[Menzinger]

If Robertson did play would any games even in the play in round count towards his 9 games and burning the first year of his ELC, so it be no different if it was the regular season?

Im not sure

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

If Robertson did play would any games even in the play in round count towards his 9 games and burning the first year of his ELC, so it be no different if it was the regular season?

I would imagine so. Regular playoff games do.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Third best defense against keefe’s #1 offense since coming in as coach. Nylander was off the hook since Badcock was fired too in this article there are some nice talking points.

https://thehockeywriters.com/maple-leafs-maroon-nylander-barrie-keefe-rielly/

 

[PromisedLand]

Any news if hockey is going to take place for post-season? or is it still in theory not 100% sure that it will happen? Can't find the info anywhere.

Just trying to find it so I can hopefully plan my schedule around Leafs hockey (if it does happen)

 

[X66]

After the draft lottery, it would be in Columbus’ best interest to throw the series.

They are not winning the cup, guaranteed but to have a 12.5% chance at a franchise forward is huge.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Any news if hockey is going to take place for post-season? or is it still in theory not 100% sure that it will happen? Can't find the info anywhere.

Just trying to find it so I can hopefully plan my schedule around Leafs hockey (if it does happen)

Looks like it’s a go bro. Training camp starts next week. Edmonton and Toronto hub cities to be announced soon etc

 

[Stephen]

After the draft lottery, it would be in Columbus’ best interest to throw the series.

They are not winning the cup, guaranteed but to have a 12.5% chance at a franchise forward is huge.

The weird thing is it's in everyone's interests to throw the series in the play-in round. 1) go home and 2) get that first overall.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Is there a list anywhere of which players are in Toronto and starting to practice?

 

[Menzinger]

After the draft lottery, it would be in Columbus’ best interest to throw the series.

They are not winning the cup, guaranteed but to have a 12.5% chance at a franchise forward is huge.

Its not in the players interest though (at least guys looking for new contracts over the next few seasons) Barring them sitting their core players, im not sure theres much they could do even if they wanted to

 

[Antropovsky]

I don’t think anyone is going to be playing playoff level hockey here after 5 months off. Would usually agree on that but this is a bit different no.

CHL to the first month of the regular season is a huge jump for most young players too, even first overall picks. The time off should help in his favor....but id expect that this post season will be better more physical hockey then the first weeks of the season.

Just because a player dominater junior hockey doesnt mean ge will find immediate success in the NHL. There will be growing pains, no doubt.

There is a lot of risk for Keefe involved in putting a young player into the lineup over veterans, especially in a 5 game series.

I want to see Robertson as much as the next guy, but getting introduced to Playoff hockey before even a regular season game is a rare rare occurence, and probably even more rare on a team that doesnt have a huge hole at the position.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

CHL to the first month of the regular season is a huge jump for most young players too, even first overall picks. The time off should help in his favor....but id expect that this post season will be better more physical hockey then the first weeks of the season.

Just because a player dominater junior hockey doesnt mean ge will find immediate success in the NHL. There will be growing pains, no doubt.

There is a lot of risk for Keefe involved in putting a young player into the lineup over veterans, especially in a 5 game series.

I want to see Robertson as much as the next guy, but getting introduced to Playoff hockey before even a regular season game is a rare rare occurence, and probably even more rare on a team that doesnt have a huge hole at the position.

There will be a training camp that will eliminate wondering if he can keep the pace defensively. I say defensively because he can skate and generate offense. Keefe won’t have to make a coin toss decision, there will be a training camp with exhibition game for decision making.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

The weird thing is it's in everyone's interests to throw the series in the play-in round. 1) go home and 2) get that first overall.

Yes but this logic is centered around the idea that you would be guaranteed the 1st overall pick if you lose. Which is most definitely not the case.

Teams that would have missed the playoffs anyways aren't going to throw away a chance for a cup for an 87.5% chance they draft where they would have anyways and waste another year of their careers.

 

[Cleetus]

Looks like it’s a go bro. Training camp starts next week. Edmonton and Toronto hub cities to be announced soon etc

would be pretty pumped!

 

[Stephen]

Yes but this logic is centered around the idea that you would be guaranteed the 1st overall pick if you lose. Which is most definitely not the case.

Teams that would have missed the playoffs anyways aren't going to throw away a chance for a cup for an 87.5% chance they draft where they would have anyways and waste another year of their careers.

Not a guarantee, but a roll of the dice.

 

[LeafsNation75]

 

[LeafsNation75]

I guess you can call this the "Steve Simmons rule" based on the way Bob McKenzie described it that there will be no public knowledge should a player test positive.

 

[PromisedLand]

Looks like it’s a go bro. Training camp starts next week. Edmonton and Toronto hub cities to be announced soon etc

Cool. Hopefully, they can release the schedule soon and I can plan accordingly.

 

[stickty111]

I guess you can call this the "Steve Simmons rule" based on the way Bob McKenzie described it that there will be no public knowledge should a player test positive.

Makes Simmons look like a terrible human being.
He cares about hits over anything else.

 

[PromisedLand]

I guess you can call this the "Steve Simmons rule" based on the way Bob McKenzie described it that there will be no public knowledge should a player test positive.

I guess if a player is not playing then by default people are going to assume that they have covid anyway

 

[LeafsNation75]

I guess if a player is not playing then by default people are going to assume that they have covid anyway

Makes you wonder if this will be the only time where a coach admits they are injured and says what it is, instead of just saying upper body or lower body.