Speculation: Leafs upcoming cap crunch

[David Suzuki]

Probably not. Right around there is likely, though.

But really........neither you or I have any clue, do we?

I mean we can make educated guesses based on the cap going up and his play.

 

[powerstuck]

Regardless we got him for 6.98 - cap hit is all that matter we're not poor

If the cap is all that matters...I guess you are fine with Matthews and Marner both sitting out till December 1st next year so their CAP is also lower ?

 

[Kamiccolo]

If the cap is all that matters...I guess you are fine with Matthews and Marner both sitting out till December 1st next year so their CAP is also lower ?

Leafs are a playoff team without them so sure if it comes to it. Would sit them all if it means keeping the whole core together but it will never come to that.

Nylander will likely tell them how terrible it was, they will want to play hockey, a deal will get done.

 

[BLONG7]

Regardless we got him for 6.98 - cap hit is all that matter we're not poor

Yes, we realize that...........and so do the agents. No Shanny discounts guys...again, pleasant problem.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Could we at least sticky this discussion if it's going to pop up daily?

 

[TML1967]

With the Leafs needing to resign Matthews, Marner, Kapanen and maybe Gardiner there could be some other pieces on the move. Would any teams have interest in these players at the trade deadline?


Hyman, Zach ($2,250,000) x 2 years -

Spark plug winger who could fetch a 2nd to 3rd rounder

Brown, Connor ($2,100,000) x 1 year

Could be had for cheap - ideally for a younger similar player(s)

Zaitsev, Nikita ($4,500,000) x 5 years

Could be added as a cap dump to a bigger deal

Kadri, Nazem ($4,500,000) x 3 years (NTC)

Ideally wouldn't move him

Marleau, Patrick ($6,250,000) x 1 year (NMC)

Orpik situation? Would have to be paid $4,000,000 bonus after buyout window

Hyman is in the top 6, and costs 2.25. KEEP
Kadri is our 3C who is our shutdown guy. KEEP

Brown is in the bottom 6, so if you can get a ELC or guys at a million to do a similar job, you save 1.1ish million. He can be a 3W on most teams, signed for a relatively cheap deal. If he remains a 3W on the Leafs, its not a bad cost, but may be a way to save a millionish.
If Kappanen doesnt end up on Matthews wing, id say trading Brown becomes necessary if Marleau stays and you keep Gardiner.

Zaitsev plays 2nd pair RD, PKs, and gets minutes like a #4. 4.5m is more than id like to pay, but thats about the cost of those guys on the open market. If we can trade him, do it. But a replacement will cost roughly the same in free agency.

Marleau has a real salary next year of 1.25m after his signing bonus. If you are trading him to someone to buy him out, it will cost $833k (Patrick Marleau Contract Buyout Details - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps) for them, and give them a cap SAVINGS in year 2.

My hope is Leafs trade Brown, Zaitsev for a 2nd pair RHD who is on a good cap deal for at least 1 more year. Pysyk maybe?
If the Leafs trade Marleau to a team who is intent to buy him out, id love to bring him back at a lesser cap hit (whatever we have remaining after making the other moves)

 

[HarryLime]

Like when Dr Strange went into the future to see how many different scenario's this will work

In the event that it will, Zaitsev has to go without hesitation. If you have to give up a 2nd to do it, fine.

 

[Buf fan in Nash]

As a Sabres fan, I couldn't help but notice Dermott all over the ice last night and I didn't notice Gardiner even once.

You do know he scored on us yesterday right?

 

[Heldig]

Like the Jets, they have a lot of talented, high end players that are going to get paid. They will undoubtedly dump a salary or two and replace with entry level contracts to fill the holes. They are still going to have 2 of the better top lines in the game, a vezina calibre goalie, and a legit #1 D plus lots of talent on the way.

One advantage the Leafs have is Reilly is on a sweetheart contract for 3 more years. A #1 D at only $5 million is a huge advantage.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Like the Jets, they have a lot of talented, high end players that are going to get paid. They will undoubtedly dump a salary or two and replace with entry level contracts to fill the holes. They are still going to have 2 of the better top lines in the game, a vezina calibre goalie, and a legit #1 D plus lots of talent on the way.

One advantage the Leafs have is Reilly is on a sweetheart contract for 3 more years. A #1 D at only $5 million is a huge advantage.

Yeah. I think jets may be in a better cap siautuion cause they can shed some decent players easier then we can. Simply cause they still have value and are ok to good players. But I don't think our shedable players are as good. So we won't miss them as much if that makes sense.

But in sure your prospects are eager to take over some spots.

 

[varano]

You must think the entire Leafs defence must stink then because Gardiner is currently 2nd on the Defence in GA/60 despite having the second most defensive zone start and facing borderline top pairing competition.

Geez. Just watch him play for the last five years

 

[Ziggdiezan]

You do know he scored on us yesterday right?

Also had an assist in the build up to the OT goal with a nice defensive plays as well as stopping a breakaway or two.

Not sure what game they watched lol

 

[Clint Eastwood]

Now why oh why are you looking to sell at the deadline when you're a very good team?

 

[TheCLAM]

If the cap is all that matters...I guess you are fine with Matthews and Marner both sitting out till December 1st next year so their CAP is also lower ?

Sure if its for the greater good.. why not? I doubt we'll get there

I have confidence we can win enough games in October/November with Tavares/Kadri and a roulette of young players.

 

[lebdafor norris]

Geez. Just watch him play for the last five years

Great at preventing opposing forward from getting controlled puck possession entries, one of the best Dman in the league at skating the puck out of the Dzone instead of just throwing it around (and the stats prove it), his great at supporting our speedy, offensive minded forwards with his speed, great puck handling and slick passes, I don't really see him make any more mistakes on ice as Rielly our other dynamic PMD (this often goes ignored by Gardiner critics, geez, dynamic Dman are often prone to giving the puck away) and even Babcock called both Jake and Rielly as elite as 2 months ago and unlike Gretzky, Babcock just doesn't throw those word to any scrub.

When the coach, the traditional stats and the analytics all contradicts with your eye test, then maybe its time to admit that their is a flaw in the way you evaluate a players' game.

 

[Steeze]

I don't get what the problem is, it's not as though they're overburdened with long-term untradeable contracts. Having to pay your stars isn't a bad thing, it means they're performing well. If you have to shuffle some pieces around, big deal.

 

[34]

Toronto is not the only team under the Cap crunch here. Winnipeg is the same, but no one ever talks about them.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Toronto is not the only team under the Cap crunch here. Winnipeg is the same, but no one ever talks about them.

You're right, plus Winnipeg has NTCs. Tampa and Anaheim also have high caps next year and some NTCs which they would prefer to move but likely wouldn't waive.
While the Leafs do have a "cap crunch', they have little bad money. And if necessary a good high cap..such as Nylander or Kadri could be traded for good value for either cap relief or help at another position.

 

[i1]

Imo Gardiner, Marleau and Brown will not be Leafs next year

 

[tmlfan98]

There are 3 things I think the Leafs will try and do to relieve cap pressure for next year:

1) Trade Brown. He just reeks of cap casualty.

2) Trade Zaitsev. It's gonna be tricky, but there are tons of worse contracts that have been moved.

3) Pull an Orpik with Marleau. Marleau's base salary after he receives a 3M signing bonus on July 1st 2019 is 1.25M. The Leafs will trade him to a team that will buy him out for us, then we'll bring him back at a much lower cap hit.

All of these moves combined would free up around 11.5M in cap space.

 

[sheed36]

There are 3 things I think the Leafs will try and do to relieve cap pressure for next year:

1) Trade Brown. He just reeks of cap casualty.

2) Trade Zaitsev. It's gonna be tricky, but there are tons of worse contracts that have been moved.

3) Pull an Orpik with Marleau. Marleau's base salary after he receives a 3M signing bonus on July 1st 2019 is 1.25M. The Leafs will trade him to a team that will buy him out for us, then we'll bring him back at a much lower cap hit.

All of these moves combined would free up around 11.5M in cap space.

The first buy out period ends June 30th so the Leafs would need to trade him before paying the 3m signing bonus so the other them would have to pay the 3m bonus instead. The acquiring team would have to pay out something like 3.8m in real dollars to buy out Marleau.

For the 2nd buy out period, which is after July 1st, the player would need to be on that teams reserve list at 3:00pm of the most recent trade deadline which Marleau wouldn't be in your example.

 

[tmlfan98]

The first buy out period ends June 30th so the Leafs would need to trade him before paying the 3m signing bonus so the other them would have to pay the 3m bonus instead. The acquiring team would have to pay out something like 3.8m in real dollars to buy out Marleau.

For the 2nd buy out period, which is after July 1st, the player would need to be on that teams reserve list at 3:00pm of the most recent trade deadline which Marleau wouldn't be in your example.

My bad, but it still shouldn't be a problem. If Colorado was willing to pay 3M for the Orpik buyout, I doubt an extra 800k would break a deal to buyout Marleau.

 

[HabsInsider]

Hainsey gone next year = 3 million
Zaitsev possibly moved = 4.5 million
Gardiner not re-signed = 4 million

Liljegren and Sandin will join the big club ASAP, which will help alleviate cap issues.

As for Gardiner, he'll stay if he signs a reasonable deal, but he could really cash in on the UFA market.

I think Marleau will finish his deal and not be moved. He's still contributing and not a burden like some make him out to be. One more year of him being a 'real gud pro' will be beneficial to the young guns. He came to Toronto to try and win a cup. I doubt management will move him unless it's obvious he's done, which he's not.

Don't see Kadri being moved at all unless a team is willing to make an offer Dubas can't refuse.

In the event of a cap crunch, I suspect Brown will be the first to go. Next would be Zaitsev. But the Leafs are gonna be fine. This situation will be fairly easy for Dubas to manage considering our depth and flexibility.

 

[PemIceKing]

Yep.
Gardiner is a valuable asset so it will suck to see him walk for nothing but after watching Dermott progress over the last two seasons, I don't think anyone will miss him for too long.

Dermott is for real. Ozhiganov is playing very well and Zaitsev was one of best Leaf D on ice against Buffalo last night. Gardiner will probably walk.

 

[HabsInsider]

The future D core is likely to be: Rielly, Dermott, Liljegren, Sandin, Ozhiganov. Zaitsev or Gardiner may still be around, and any remaining spots will be filled by a cheap free agent signing or from within the organization.