Friedman: Leafs trying to keep Gardiner?

[Duke Silver]

Good luck with that, Doesn't Toronto have roughly $23 million to spend next summer? And we can safely assume that Marner and Matthews eat up most of that $23 million by themselve's.

It's actually closer to $32m when you factor in Horton going on LTIR.

$32m for Matthews + Marner (~$21m), Kapanen + Johnsson (~$4m), Gardiner (~$5.5m), 2 fourth-liners, 4 bottom-pairing dmen and 1 backup goalie. It's definitely going to be a tight squeeze but anticipating they will shed salary (Brown, Zaitsev) to get it done.

 

[glucker]

It's actually closer to $32m when you factor in Horton going on LTIR.

$32m for Matthews + Marner (~$21m), Kapanen + Johnsson (~$4m), Gardiner (~$5.5m), two 4th-liners and four bottom-pairing dmen. It's definitely going to be a tight squeeze but anticipating they will shed salary (Brown, Zaitsev) to get it done.

And a back-up goalie.

They don't keep Gardiner unless they dump someone else.

 

[Ciao]

Technically, if Seattle begins play in 21-22, expansion draft will be base on 20-21 contracts (because it's held before July 1st).

ELC contracts do not have to be protected, they are automatically ineligible to be picked up by Seattle.

So Liljegren would be okay since his last year of ELC is 20-21.

That's not my recollection of the Vegas draft.

I'm speaking from memory, but I thought exemption had to do with pro experience not contract status. AFAIK, players with up to two years pro experience at the time of the draft were exempt -- this would mean Sandin would be okay but Liljegren would be draft eligible if unprotected -- and it didn't matter if the player was still on an ELC.

I'm not able to look it up right now, but I know others will weigh in on this with some actual authority.

 

[glucker]

That's not my recollection of the Vegas draft.

I'm speaking from memory, but I thought exemption had to do with pro experience not contract status. AFAIK, players with up to two years pro experience at the time of the draft were exempt -- this would mean Sandin would be okay but Liljegren okay be draft eligible if unprotected -- and it didn't matter if the player was still on an ELC.

I'm not able to look it up right now, but I know others will weigh in on this with some actual authority.

You appear to be correct:
Protected Lists

* Clubs will have two options for players they wish to protect in the Expansion Draft:
a) Seven forwards, three defensemen and one goaltender
b) Eight skaters (forwards/defensemen) and one goaltender
* All players who have currently effective and continuing "No Movement" clauses at the time of the Expansion Draft (and who to decline to waive such clauses) must be protected (and will be counted toward their club's applicable protection limits).
* All first- and second-year professionals, as well as all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward their club's applicable protection limits).

 

[Mickey Marner]

He'd basically have to leave 10+ million on the table. Maybe 20 million. 0% chance it happens, even with a 90% bonus structure.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Would be one of the better contracts in the league lol.... (excluding ELC).

Assuming you mean 5 x 7 years.

Correct.

I like him a lot too... but I wonder if the money is better spent on shoring up the right side.

Not sure anyone's available, pretty sure nobody is that would sign for a discount.

edit: One other thing to consider WRT Seattle... how do the Leafs see their D playing out in the next 3 years?

Rielly is presumably a must-protect. Gardiner would undoubtedly get some protection in his next contract. Liljegren & Sandin won't be eligible (unless he plays 10 NHL games this year, which given the Seattle news, will likely not happen). Dermott, Zaitsev, left potentially exposed. Are the Leafs happy building a D around Rielly, Gardiner, Dermott, Liljegren & Sandin?

I guess the question / challenge is, if the Leafs resign Gardiner, any upgrade they look to make on Zaitsev will mean that either he or Dermott must be exposed.

Assuming the kids pan out, I'd be thrilled!

 

[thadd]

Would love for it to happen. Would have to lose Marleau or bridge a guy though I'd imagine

I think they'd have to lose Marleau without taking any salary back and bridge at least 2 guys.

 

[flamesforcup]

Guess the Leafs dont trust Dermott to take his spot over not that i blame him. If they lose Gardiner and add nothing to the defense next year they would be in a bad spot. They should really try keeping him.

 

[The List Of Jericho]

I'd be doubtful that the Leafs can make it work... but the ability to offer an 8th year may give them a little bit of a leg up.

At this point in his career, this will likely be his last big contract. He's not gong to place a ton of value on that 8th year, which would allow the Leafs to spread out some money into it.

8 years? Dubas isn’t that stupid. Jake is nice and all but has his defencies, I’d be alright with the Leafs moving on from him and getting a better defensive defencman instead.

 

[The List Of Jericho]

In 2 years only Tavares and Kadri will be playing with Toronto

watch my words

It’s mark my words and they’re ridiculous

 

[CB Joe]

Why would the Leafs make sacrifices on defense? That's making a weak blueline even weaker.

 

[kylbaz]

Gardiner signing for $100k per year.

 

[Advanced stats]

I think they'd have to lose Marleau without taking any salary back and bridge at least 2 guys.

Lose Marleau and bridge kapanen and they'll be fine .

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

He will be gone.. Some random team will offer a bizzare amount to him and he will follow the cash.. He is a prime candidate to get a massive overpayment

Honestly i think Leafs are better off without him

 

[Fogelhund]

Keeping Gardiner would not be the right move.

The Leafs will have an adequate Left side, with Rielly, Dermott and Rosen next year, replacing Rosen with Sandin the year after.

The Leafs do need to upgrade their Right side though, and in all probability, it's either going to be Nylander, or Kapanen moved in such a trade. That's just the way the cookie crumbles.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Would love to keep him but he is basically the JVR of our defense.....a luxury and one we can't afford. Open market he probably gets $7 M. As much as people want to make fun of him, D-men get paid for offense and since 2016 (2 1/4 seasons) he is 18th overall in the league for points, 6th overall in ES points and team stat aside, 10th overall in +/-.

 

[flamesforcup]

Don't see how he fits unless Marleau goes. If Marleau stays it means Kapanen and Brown are moved out and we're not bringing back a roster RHD in the Kappy trade. Gardiner is a good player, but unless he or Dermott start playing the right side, we have Rielly-Gardiner-Dermott as our LD and that's silly when the right is weak. The only way I think Gards stays is if he takes a HUGE paycut, like $4.5m x 7 or something. Considering that he'd probably get 6 or 7m with 5~6 years on the open market, I will be very surprised if he's a Leaf next year.

Rielly-Gardiner-Dermott is not really silly. U have a #1d a #3d and a #5-6d all playing in their right spots. If Gardiner goes and Dermott is forced to take his minutes it could get very ugly. Leafs brass knows this so i expect them to do every thing they can to keep Gardiner. If they go into next year with a defense of...
Rielly-Ozighanov?
Dermott-Zaitzev
x- x
...It will be a regressive year.

 

[Henkka]

Easiest piece to let walk and replace him with Liljegren.

Solves all cap problems.

 

[Toronto makebeleifs]

In 2 years only Tavares and Kadri will be playing with Toronto

watch my words

Will do. Except you forgot the rest of the players under contract.

 

[PhiladelphiaKessel]

This only makes sense if Dermott is capable of playing the right side

 

[DRW204]

this UFA class is quite thin in quantity of good dmen. EK65, Stralman (albeit is 4 years older) are the only guys that come to mind. I think Gardiner will get tons of competitive UFA offers. I don't think TOR is positioned well for a bidding war for Gardiner's services if he chooses to chase the dollars

Zaitsev's NTC doesn't kick in until after this season. They could free up salary via moving him to make room. I don't see Marleau waiving his NMC whilst being on a competitive PO contender

 

[sansabri]

I can see Gardiner taking a discount if he gets a huge signing bonus.

 

[lebdafor norris]

He'd basically have to leave 10+ million on the table. Maybe 20 million. 0% chance it happens, even with a 90% bonus structure.

How many years are other teams willing to sign him for thou, maybe 4 similar to Shattenkirk? If the Leafs give him a 6-8 year contract instead then I'm sure they can negotiate in lowering his AAV down.

 

[Offside2408]

He will be gone.. Some random team will offer a bizzare amount to him and he will follow the cash.. He is a prime candidate to get a massive overpayment

Honestly i think Leafs are better off without him

I couldn’t agree more. He’s not worth anywhere near what he’s going to be paid. After reading this thread I’m wondering if I’m the only one that truly watches him play. I’ve been looking forward to next year for a long time. I will be really frustrated if we resign him unless it’s for 5 million or or less. I like his offensive skills but for me it doesn’t justify his defensive lapses. Like it’s painful watching him take the 4 seconds to figure out what to do when he gets himself out of position. Personally I think the team will be stronger without him. Maybe that’s just me but I’m really not a Gardner fan and I can’t wait for him to be someone else’s problem

 

[Steeze]

Let him walk and play Dermott with Zaitsev, which perhaps could regain some of his value because everyone seems to play better with Dermott. Then find a better RD for Rielly after Hainsey is gone, preferably one that can log big minutes because Rielly is a conditioning freak who I believe could be playing even more.