Speculation: Leafs trade predictions

[Nineteen67]

Nylander would free up a lot of cap space.

 

[IBeL34f]

His salary is irrelevant. We pay what? Something like 3/4 of it in a bonus up front??? The only question is the cap hit.

Question for someone who knows??? If we offer to retain,,,, I assume that's only on the 1.xMillion that remains after the bonus?? So "retaining" really doesn't apply here? tia

Retention is on the cap, not the salary - We could retain up to 50% of his $6.25M cap hit when trading him to another team, if necessary.

 

[The Apologist]

Out of the loop eh?

Nope, just don't believe it will actually happen.

 

[IBeL34f]

Nope, just don't believe it will actually happen.

I didn't expect it to, either, but at this point it's starting to feel like a deal (or framework, at least) might already be in place, with just the formality of the signing bonus delaying things.

 

[ULF_55]

If we're able to trade Zaits and Marleau without taking back salary that should leave space to bring back Marner, AJ and KK.

What would be nice is if we're could figure out a way top bring back Gardiner as well. Likely have to trade Brown as well.

I guess the question becomes do you feel comfortable with a D that looks like Rielly, Muzz, Dermott, and a bunch of Marlies. If you don't, you need to turn some forwards into D. Whether that's Kadri, AJ, Kap or Nylander depends on the return.

If you can afford Gardiner you can probably afford any free agent defender who isn't named Karlsson.

If you are willing to pay 6+ on a long term deal, you can probably make a trade to some team that wants to move a contract, ex. Flames and Rangers who are dangling RD.

 

[ULF_55]

I think Marleau, Zaitsev and Brown are moving
I'm not sure how much we will retain/take back salary but I think all those guys will be traded in some form
I wouldn't be surprised if one of Johnsson, Kapanen or Kadri goes for a defenseman either

Marner is a real wild card, I hope like hell he stays but never say never although I think him being traded is very unlikely

Kadri could be gone, unlikely, but I could see him part of a bigger deal where a team wants to make an adjustment, kind of like the Leafs would like to do.

Obviously, we can all envision a Marner trade, but I'm sure we all think that is highly unlikely. I suspect it would be for a 1st. pairing defender, middle 6 forward and prospects. I'd worry the Leafs might look at it as an opportunity to kick the tires on Karlsson.

 

[18leafsfan18]

His salary is irrelevant. We pay what? Something like 3/4 of it in a bonus up front??? The only question is the cap hit.

Question for someone who knows??? If we offer to retain,,,, I assume that's only on the 1.xMillion that remains after the bonus?? So "retaining" really doesn't apply here? tia

I just read somewhere yesterday (Can't recall where) that his bonus is actually paid in 2 installments, one July 1st, one in December I think.

He is actually only paid 4.25 mil this year as well in actual dollars (cap hit is based on the total contract $ divided by contract length). Which makes it easier for a budget team.

 

[ULF_55]

I just read somewhere yesterday (Can't recall where) that his bonus is actually paid in 2 installments, one July 1st, one in December I think.

He is actually only paid 4.25 mil this year as well in actual dollars (cap hit is based on the total contract $ divided by contract length). Which makes it easier for a budget team.

Trying To Magic Away The Patrick Marleau Contract

Updated May 18, 2019 — two new pieces of information have come to light. First, that Marleau’s signing bonus is not all paid on July 1, as is common.

4. Odd quirk in Patrick Marleau’s contract: his signing bonus is paid in two instalments, one in July, one in December. Remember, he controls his future, but that adds a wrinkle to any potential move.​

I've read the guess is half his bonus paid July 1st., so his actually salary July 1st. after bonus is 2.75. (1.25+1.5)
Now I don't know if that is speculation, but it does have some logic to it.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Trying To Magic Away The Patrick Marleau Contract

Updated May 18, 2019 — two new pieces of information have come to light. First, that Marleau’s signing bonus is not all paid on July 1, as is common.

4. Odd quirk in Patrick Marleau’s contract: his signing bonus is paid in two instalments, one in July, one in December. Remember, he controls his future, but that adds a wrinkle to any potential move.​

I've read the guess is half his bonus paid July 1st., so his actually salary July 1st. after bonus is 2.75. (1.25+1.5)
Now I don't know if that is speculation, but it does have some logic to it.

Thanks, that exactly the one I read.

I was thinking it was a bit crazy for the posters on here saying they "called it" that Lou signed Marleau with an agreement that he would leave after 2 years, but looking at the structure of the contact and how this has played out, those people may have actually "called it".

 

[CDN24]

Nope, just don't believe it will actually happen.

I'm not sold yet either. he wants to go back to the West coast. Does that mean only Ducks /Sharks or Kings, maybe Canucks?. Do any of these teams have any interest in him. Sharks have a ton of cap space but a ton of UFAs and RFAs to resign- can they afford to blow 6.25 or a lower retention number on marlea? ducks and Kings are rebuilding and don't need him but will take him if you throw in a nice young asset.

Marleau problem is a long way from solved

 

[Leaf4Life79]

Marleau is not being traded. My goodness.

Dude, he family is moving back to San Jose... Yes, he is being traded!

 

[ACC1224]

Dude, he family is moving back to San Jose... Yes, he is being traded!

Looks like it but nothing can be guaranteed when another Team is involved.

 

[ULF_55]

I didn't expect it to, either, but at this point it's starting to feel like a deal (or framework, at least) might already be in place, with just the formality of the signing bonus delaying things.

Marleau has asked for a trade so something will get done. It will likely be a bad trade for the Leafs, perhaps picking up a salary dump, but if it's a U35 contract they can make that go away with cash.

 

[SnizzMitch]

People needs to realize that it’s far from sure they’re getting traded, who’s gonna take these contracts?? It’s like if Lucic asked to be traded, does that means he’s 100% getting traded? Absolutely not, because no one wants him with that contract.

Edit: I’m talking about Marleau and Zaitsev

 

[ULF_55]

I'm not sold yet either. he wants to go back to the West coast. Does that mean only Ducks /Sharks or Kings, maybe Canucks?. Do any of these teams have any interest in him. Sharks have a ton of cap space but a ton of UFAs and RFAs to resign- can they afford to blow 6.25 or a lower retention number on marlea? ducks and Kings are rebuilding and don't need him but will take him if you throw in a nice young asset.

Marleau problem is a long way from solved

My guess is the west, where commute to San Jose / San Francisco isn't a 5 hour flight, and probably prefer a domestic.

I think it gets done at a cost to the Leafs, but Leafs have holes that Marleau doesn't help fill.

 

[GoonieFace]

Zaitsev to New Jersey for 4th rd pick

Brown and a 7th rd pick to Edmonton for 3rd rd pick

Marleau and Timashov to Arizona for conditional 7th rd pick

 

[ULF_55]

Nylander would free up a lot of cap space.

Marleau would free up almost as much.

 

[janesy12]

I'd rather not give up assets or take on a bad contract to move Marleau. Would much rather move Zaitsev & Brown and Dubas has to at least test the waters on what Kadri can fetch in a trade. Love him but this team needs defense and he's likely our best trade chip.

If Marleau has to stay then so be it. It's only a year left.

 

[CDN24]

My guess is the west, where commute to San Jose / San Francisco isn't a 5 hour flight, and probably prefer a domestic.

I think it gets done at a cost to the Leafs, but Leafs have holes that Marleau doesn't help fill.

Agreed getting Marleau to waive to go anywhere is 1/2 the battle. Still need to find someone to take him and that is going to cost an asset or 2, pick or a prospect. The limited number of teams that he will accept a trade to have the leafs over a barrel. Leafs have to make sure it gets resolved relatively quickly after July 1st portion of bonus is paid. Too much dicking around and Marleau is liable to say f*** it, I'm retiring and with a 35+ Contract that may be worst possible outcome. If it comes to retirement I suppose he would then be open to having his contract traded to anybody.

Dubas is going to earn his money this summer.

 

[Nineteen67]

Marleau would free up almost as much.

Marleau for sure. If they can somehow get rid of Nylander for some valuable pieces, then they have a chance to build a competitive team. Maybe even a Cup contender. If they can get Marner signed soon there is no rush to trade Nylander this month.

Otherwise, if they don’t address the holes, they’re likely screwed because Rielly will be a UFA soon, they’ll need to upgrade Andersen.

 

[ULF_55]

Marleau for sure. If they can somehow get rid of Nylander for some valuable pieces, then they have a chance to build a competitive team. Maybe even a Cup contender. If they can get Marner signed soon there is no rush to trade Nylander this month.

Otherwise, if they don’t address the holes, they’re likely screwed because Rielly will be a UFA soon, they’ll need to upgrade Andersen.

I'd rather move players on the down slope of their careers. Team isn't ready now, holding on to those in decline is a fools choice.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Seems as though nothing is going to happen until after July 1st ?

After initial signing bonuses are paid ?

 

[Nineteen67]

I'd rather move players on the down slope of their careers. Team isn't ready now, holding on to those in decline is a fools choice.

You move all those. But they need a lot more talent and depth at almost every position.

 

[Voodoo Child]

The thing with Marleau is he's not us, he's made like 90 million dollars in his career.

So even if his family is in San Jose and he goes to Arizona or Vancouver, he doesn't go to the airport three hours earlier and wait to fly in cattle class.

He pays ten to fifteen G's for a private flight where the company sends a limo to his house to pick him up and gets a flute of champagne handed to him as soon as he steps on the plane, where he's the only person on the plane and its nice and smooth.

...and also this was gonna happen from day one. He could always retire once he's traded.

Zaitsev is a little trickier but it's not like he's severely overpaid like a Lucic or an Eriksson, he's overpaid by maybe 750 a year but the term isn't good, is all.

...

Marleau to Los Angeles or Arizona with a pick and Bracco for a player they want to move and a pick...

Zaitsev at 4 to Jersey for picks.

Brown to Edmonton for two 4ths.

And I voted for Kapanen.

He's a RW which is sadly redundant and he has the most value.

Kapanen to some team for a late 1st.

 

[18leafsfan18]

The thing with Marleau is he's not us, he's made like 90 million dollars in his career.

So even if his family is in San Jose and he goes to Arizona or Vancouver, he doesn't go to the airport three hours earlier and wait to fly in cattle class.

He pays ten to fifteen G's for a private flight where the company sends a limo to his house to pick him up and gets a flute of champagne handed to him as soon as he steps on the plane, where he's the only person on the plane and its nice and smooth.

...and also this was gonna happen from day one. He could always retire once he's traded.

Zaitsev is a little trickier but it's not like he's severely overpaid like a Lucic or an Eriksson, he's overpaid by maybe 750 a year but the term isn't good, is all.

...

Marleau to Los Angeles or Arizona with a pick and Bracco for a player they want to move and a pick...

Zaitsev at 4 to Jersey for picks.

Brown to Edmonton for two 4ths.

And I voted for Kapanen.

He's a RW which is sadly redundant and he has the most value.

Kapanen to some team for a late 1st.

How is Kapanen only worth a late 1st ?

He was selected 22nd overall in his draft year (a late 1st) and has proven to be a NHL ready player (top 6).

A lot of late 1st don't even make it into the league.