The Masters
Registered User
- Jun 30, 2018
- 4,242
- 5,769
SoooManyBanelings82 points·12 hours ago
I covered this in a very rudimentary way in another thread:
The Leafs have 22 points in 22 games: exactly .500, so on pace for 82 points.
For reference, it took 95 points to secure a wildcard spot in the East in 2016-2017; 97 in 17-18, and 98 in 18-19. Babcock's model of 6 points every 5 games is a goal of 98.4 points, so let's take that as our "make the playoffs" target.
With 60 games remaining, the Leafs will have to be a .636 team for the rest of the season, starting tonight, to hit that target exactly.
Their points percentage over the last two seasons combined was .595, which misses the mark at only 93 points. However, in their best season, 17-18, they finished the year at .640, which is juuuuust enough.
So, the good news: It's possible/realistic to squeak in. And keep in mind that posting a .636 doesn't mean they have to win tonight, only that they have to win enough over the next 60. 60 games is a big stretch with room for both win and losing streaks. We are also probably making this calculation at the team's low point, towards what I hope is the end of a bad streak.
The bad news: I would say it's already unlikely that they make the playoffs. 22 games is not a fluke sample size, and while the team just got Tavares, Hyman, and Dermott back, it also just lost Marner, Kerfoot, and Moore. I just don't think they're going to repeat or exceed their best season yet starting tonight.
I covered this in a very rudimentary way in another thread:
The Leafs have 22 points in 22 games: exactly .500, so on pace for 82 points.
For reference, it took 95 points to secure a wildcard spot in the East in 2016-2017; 97 in 17-18, and 98 in 18-19. Babcock's model of 6 points every 5 games is a goal of 98.4 points, so let's take that as our "make the playoffs" target.
With 60 games remaining, the Leafs will have to be a .636 team for the rest of the season, starting tonight, to hit that target exactly.
Their points percentage over the last two seasons combined was .595, which misses the mark at only 93 points. However, in their best season, 17-18, they finished the year at .640, which is juuuuust enough.
So, the good news: It's possible/realistic to squeak in. And keep in mind that posting a .636 doesn't mean they have to win tonight, only that they have to win enough over the next 60. 60 games is a big stretch with room for both win and losing streaks. We are also probably making this calculation at the team's low point, towards what I hope is the end of a bad streak.
The bad news: I would say it's already unlikely that they make the playoffs. 22 games is not a fluke sample size, and while the team just got Tavares, Hyman, and Dermott back, it also just lost Marner, Kerfoot, and Moore. I just don't think they're going to repeat or exceed their best season yet starting tonight.
Last edited: