Leafs Chances of Making Playoffs (Reddit User)

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hullsy47

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Dec 7, 2005
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The Leafs played at a .675 pace through the first 40 last year before tailing off so it's not like it's unheard of for this team.

We're 20 games in, kinda early to be writing off the season.
Not really its pretty obvious this team is weak defensively and likely wont get get the billington like goaltending in Freddie's next 45 starts .
Its sad but u have to remember with parity there are hard games every night
And after american thanks giving your more unlikely to see teams rattle off 5 6 7 game winning streaks
It's only early to panic if u think the system will work
I saw the leafs play their best game since st Louis and all they get is PARTICIPATION ribbons from Babcock
 
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Nithoniniel

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Sep 7, 2012
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I guess everyone’s fancy analytics from games 10-15 arent coming to fruition? Who would have thought that the eye test was telling us all the truth. This team is an unmitigated diasaster.
Everyone's fancy analytics from the start are coming to fruition. They have pointed towards disaster more or less from the get go.
 
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The Apologist

Apologizing for Leaf garbage since 1979
Oct 16, 2007
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Not really its pretty obvious this team is weak defensively and likely wont get get the billington like goaltending in Freddie's next 45 starts .
Its sad but u have to remember with parity there are hard games every night
And after american thanks giving your more unlikely to see teams rattle off 5 6 7 game winning streaks
It's only early to panic if u think the system will work
I saw the leafs play their best game since st Louis and all they get is PARTICIPATION ribbons from Babcock
It's tough to see any bright side in the midst of a six game skid but this team is just as capable of reeling off ten straight wins.
Last night we saw the spark. Hell even Tyson Barrie was throwing the body around.
Hockey is a funny sport.
 
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Gary Nylund

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Oct 10, 2013
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It's tough to see any bright side in the midst of a six game skid but this team is just as capable of reeling off ten straight wins.
Last night we saw the spark. Hell even Tyson Barrie was throwing the body around.
Hockey is a funny sport.

10 straight wins at this point would be one of the most unlikely things I've seen in my entire lifetime of watching sporst. Agree with the general premise of this post though.

Anyhow, as of right now we're 25th overall and 13th in the East. Or to put it another way, sinking like a stone.

Not sure why but I'm reminded of an epic thread from a few years ago titled - "But It's Not Sustainable".

Go Leafs Go. Damn it.
 

Brown Dog

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Jun 23, 2007
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I always joke that just when you think you've seen it all, this team finds a new way to break your heart.

So I probably should've seen something like this coming, but I didn't. After all those years of quick fixes and bandaid solutions, it seemed they finally tried to do it right.

They fired everyone from the old regime, committed to a rebuild, hired a superstar head coach, got lucky with the ping pong balls, drafted a generational level 1C (long the missing piece), kept their high picks and seemed to hit on all of them, established a culture that emphasized player development, brought in a GM who seemed to get it (valuing high end skill), stocked the front office with cap wizards, and finally looked like they were becoming the kind of annual contender we all hoped for, just needing to get over the hump of the Bruins.

So to see them fall so spectacularly, it's heartbreaking.

Maybe they flip a switch when Babcock gets fired (a matter of "when" now, not "if"). But what if they don't? They're so locked into this core, which is showing itself to be rotten, overpaid and underachieving. They can make changes, but then do we need to wait for that group to get it together, find the right mix, that takes time. And with so much of the cap tied up in a few guys, there will always be major surgery being done to the roster--will we ever be able to expect continuity?

And in the meantime we have to figure out how to extend Rielly, replace Andersen, rebuild the defense. By the time they figure it out, Matthews, Marner could be into their late 20s and looking to cash in again.

Man. It wasn't supposed to be like this.
 

Hclass47

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Apr 28, 2018
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I actually thought they would be in tough missing Hyman and Dermott to start the season. And with all the other compounding injuries this is a terrible outcome.

Leafs only have 1st rd pick that’s top 10 lottery protected otherwise it goes to Carolina (scratching head)

this is just an amazing turn of events with all the injuries and struggling players catching up to them...
 
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Bomber0104

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Everyone's fancy analytics from the start are coming to fruition. They have pointed towards disaster more or less from the get go.

Yeah that's a lie and you know it.

There was plenty of posters (yourself included) that basically spent all summer going on about how Dubas removed all of our net-negative contributors (Zaitsev, Marleau, Hainsey, Brown, Kadri, etc.) and that we were improved.
 
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Not My Tempo

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Feb 22, 2015
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Yeah that's a lie and you know it.

There was plenty of posters (yourself included) that basically spent all summer going on about how all of our "negative" contributors (Zaitsev, Marleau, Brown, Kadri, etc.) were off the roster and that we were improved.
This is actually true though. All the players on this team minus Ceci had okay to great analytics in years past. This year, no one has good analytics except for Matthews and Nylander basically. Currently, analytics point to us being one of the worst teams in the league...which we are. No one on this team except a few are performing, including the coaching staff
 

Bomber0104

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Apr 8, 2007
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This is actually true though. All the players on this team minus Ceci had okay to great analytics in years past. This year, no one has good analytics except for Matthews and Nylander basically. Currently, analytics point to us being one of the worst teams in the league...which we are.

All of the off-season prognostications were dead wrong.

Absolutely dead wrong.

Trying to deny that the Leafs were hyped as contenders is just revisionist history.
 

Mess

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Feb 27, 2002
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The moral of this story when it will be written, is if you sign 4 forwards to 1/2 you teams Salary Cap then you've sunk your own battleship. Those that skipped ahead and read the last chapter already knew this story was not going to have a happy ending.

US Thanksgiving is often used as a gauge by NHL teams to determine playoff expected appearance.

Since the salary cap was instituted in 2005, now using a 12 year sample set that 75% or more of the teams in a playoff position at this time make the playoffs and only 25% or less each year that are on the outside looking in get back in thereafter.
 
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hullsy47

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Dec 7, 2005
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It's tough to see any bright side in the midst of a six game skid but this team is just as capable of reeling off ten straight wins.
Last night we saw the spark. Hell even Tyson Barrie was throwing the body around.
Hockey is a funny sport.
Well I guess Cept this team cant sustain consistency ,10 game winning streak ?
I'd say 500 down the stretch will be the norm
I think we are last years Florida panthers close but no cigar, then they can the whole lot
 

Not My Tempo

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Feb 22, 2015
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The moral of this story when it will be written, is if you sign 4 forwards to 1/2 you teams Salary Cap then you've sunk your own battleship. Those that skipped ahead and read the last chapter already knew this story was not going to have a happy ending.

US Thanksgiving is often used as a gauge by NHL teams to determine playoff expected appearance.

Since the salary cap was instituted in 2005, now using a 12 year sample set that 75% or more of the teams in a playoff position at this time make the playoffs and only 25% or less each year that are on the outside looking in get back in thereafter.
I don’t think that’s fair though. Matthews and Marner are overpaid yea, but them not playing to their contracts isn’t why Rielly, Barrie, Andersen, Tavares, Ceci etc... aren’t playing to theirs.

Every single player on this team looks horrible. That’s on them and the coaching stuff. And part of me doesn’t want anything to change because if our top four forwards think they’re worth 50% of this teams cap, they can get themselves out of this mess
 

Mess

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Feb 27, 2002
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What 'American Thanksgiving' NHL standings positions say about playoff chances

Over the last five years, 77.5% (62 of 80) of the teams that were in a playoff spot on US Thanksgiving also had one when the regular season was completed.

It's also 75% dating to 2005-06 to be the beginning of the Salary Cap era in the NHL.

 

BayStreetBully

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Oct 25, 2007
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Maybe the young kids aren’t mentally capable of living up to their bloated, undeserved contracts. Perhaps that’s why they should’ve waited until they’ve proven themselves before asking for the money normally deserved for multiple 100 point producers and cup champions.

That’s what happens when you make a deal with the devil. You asked for it, now you get to face the wrath.
 
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SeaOfBlue

The Passion That Unites Us All
Aug 1, 2013
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I called it on July 27th and Aug 28th that it won't be easy for the Leafs to make the playoffs

July 27th
Kyle Dubas Part 3

Aug 28th
News Article: - NHL season preview of the Toronto Maple Leafs

This is called foresight; I wish the moron we hired for GM had foresight

Our issue right now is not that other teams are significantly better than us. In fact, I'd say Tampa has been a disappointment, and even Montreal and Florida have had their fair share of struggles to the point where even if we played decently we'd be up on them.

We have just sucked that bad, and it's not even all on defense. It's special teams. It's goaltending. It's even offensive consistency. Then of course we've had terrible luck with injuries. Pretty much everything that could go wrong with this team did, besides more people getting hurt or a few select guys not being able to carry this team to a few victories on their backs.

There is only so much that you can foreshadow. Like I think pretty much anyone you can talk to before the season would have said that the Leafs' PP would have been significantly better than it has been. I don't think were foreshadowing major regressions in Marner and Tavares' play. I don't think many foreshadowed Hutch or Barrie playing like a steam pile of garbage (although I did in regards to Hutch). I don't even think people were foreshadowing a bottom 5 PK or bottom 10 defense, even if they didn't expect either to be in the top half of the league.

At some point it is no longer on the GM and it is on the players and coaches to get their games in order.
 

SeaOfBlue

The Passion That Unites Us All
Aug 1, 2013
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Maybe the young kids aren’t mentally capable of living up to their bloated, undeserved contracts. Perhaps that’s why they should’ve waited until they’ve proven themselves before asking for the money normally deserved for multiple 100 point producers and cup champions.

That’s what happens when you make a Faustian bargain with the devil. You asked for it, now you get to face the wrath.

I think Matthews and Nylander have done a pretty good job on their end. There is another gear for both of them, but Nylander is playing like a 7 mill player and Matthews is at least playing like a guy who would be making over 10 mill, if not over 11.

Problem is Marner has never looked like an 11 mill player, and most of the time he's looking like a 4 mill player.
 

The Masters

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Jun 30, 2018
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They aren't making the playoffs. Team would have to go on a lightning run the rest of the way. It would be possible if the team showed signs of being good, but they aren't. This isnt happening. For as smart as Dubas is numbers wise, he must know this.

This reminds me too much of the Tampa bay year, what 3-4 years ago? going to conference finals then missing the playoffs.

Leafs are fked right now. This is the worst position to be in. Up against the cap and you suck. That's the problem with paying all these kids their money. No heart, no fight. Dubas let these kids run the team.
 

ottomaddox

Registered User
Oct 31, 2017
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There's a lot of hard truth in this thread.

It's going to be a long season I'm afraid. This team will not win 64% of the rest of their games. The only way they have a shot is if the other teams in the East slide hard.

No one is off the hook at this point. Not even Shanahan.

The system
The coach
The goalie situation
The cap
The effort
The make up of this team
The leadership

They don't deserve the playoffs IMHO.
 
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