Prospect Info: Leafs 2018 4th Rd Draft Pick (#118 OA) - Mac Hollowell (5'9", 170, D, Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds)

Isaac Nootin

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Sep 28, 2017
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Proof?

I find that absurd. They spend millions of dollars on preparing for the draft, and half way through they just say "**** it, whatever"? Get out of here.

Yes, that's exactly what they do. Mid 3rd round everything goes out the window and they simply draw names from a hat.
 

93LEAFS

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Nov 7, 2009
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Not to call you out some some hypocrisy but you literally defend Hunter for probably worst selections in the past 2 drafts, or at least just as questionable. Don't you disagree? You keep saying you can't judge these drafts so early etc etc. If you think this is poor, I can't imagine how you classify last 2017 round 2-7.

Hollowell is probably the only pick that I really question to be perfectly honest.
I've said we flat out need more time on some of those, and I didn't mind the value at the time. Which of his bad picks have I defended outside of Rasanen, saying he needs more time. I'll give the draft time to prove me wrong, but I'd give immediate responses on it. I said I didn't like Korshkov at the time and would have preferred Katchouk.

I feel we lost on value today. I think we likely only got one NHLer over the two days.

I seriously question SDA and said so pre-draft. I don't think with his size and lack of skating he has a shot at being an NHLer. He simply can't create space. Which kills playmakers at the next level. We drafted two 1998 on the smaller end defenders who produced in the OHL as 19-year-olds.
 

realgoodleafs

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Oct 29, 2006
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Maybe you should look at more than counting stats. He's injury prone and has issues. Teams generally don't rank much past 100 players, so a no-draft is player they don't put in their top 100. This is a quote on Hollowell and Durzi from an NHL scout in the Black Book.

“You can't play at that size…like F*** it’s impossible. I don’t think his hockey sense is good enough either…he's a great skater…I don’t get fooled by the Durzi’s or these guys. They’re good in the OHL because number 1: they can skate their way out of trouble …and two: there’s no hitting. I mean, I like him enough that I’d put him on our AHL team, but at the next level (NHL)I don’t know how he plays.” NHL Scout, May 2018

The scout sounds really stupid.
 

SprDaVE

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Sep 20, 2008
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Who have I actually defended. What I've said, if you can hit on 2 NHLers out of 5 2nd rounders you are doing pretty well. I didn't like the Korshkov pick and criticized at the time, as I preferred Katchouk. I'll give the kids a chance once they are in our system, but I'm not going to be overly optimistic right away on picks I don't agree with.

I wouldn't have drafted SDA. I don't think he's a pro-North American player. He simply can't skate well enough to create opening to use his playmaking. He's a worse version of Bracco, who I expect to be in the Swiss league in 3 years time.

I just told you. You defended Hunter and I feel like he did far worst in the past 2 drafts than this current one.

SDA is definitely a high ceiling but high risk. Young and productive. I sure as hell hope he's closer to Bracco than Middleton in terms of value.
 

93LEAFS

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I just told you. You defended Hunter and I feel like he did far worst in the past 2 drafts than this current one.

SDA is definitely a high ceiling but high risk. Young and productive. I sure as hell hope he's closer to Bracco than Middleton in terms of value.
Except, I never heavily defended his picks. All I said was it was unreasonable to judge his drafts in the short term. If you hit on 2 of 5 2nd rounders in 3 years, you did pretty well. I've bashed the Korshkov pick before, I wasn't a fan of Middleton. I like Greenway's tools at the time, but clearly he's a write-off, and I like the Woll pick.

These guys both need to show something in the AHL this year, so we'll quickly know what level of player we got.

Grundstrom and Woll were way better day two picks than anyone we got today. I don't think its that close.
 

BertCorbeau

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I’ve learned to get less excited about picks from the 4th to the 7th round. If they can get 1-2 NHLers over 2-3 years in these rounds, that’s good in my books.

The first 3 rounds are more pivotal for me.

This is a nice change from Hunters low skill giants that aren’t even in he organization anymore
 

TheMadHatTrick

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Nov 2, 2008
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So you post 1 example of a guy who has a list of 1p0 names, then asks each area scout to add another 5 names each. Do you know how many area scouts teams have? That's easily over 100+ other names.

Then an example about Datsyuk from 1998, 20 years ago. I'm sure how teams scout hasn't changed at all since then.

Embarrassing.

I often vigorously debate with 93 on the draft thread for most of the year and he's one of the most knowledgeable, well-informed, and connected when it comes to the draft and prospects (especially in the OHL) if not the most. So it's funny to see a guy the rest of us never see in the prospects or draft threads acting all condescending like he actually knows what he's talking about in comparison. lol

I may not always agree with him, but stop being so disrespectful or dismissive. The guy knows his shit, and likely much more than you.
 

Maplebeasts

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Out of all the picks, this was easily the most underwhelming for me. Not sure what Dubas was thinking considering he could be had for free shortly anyways and was not guaranteed to be picked like Durzi was. I'm a fan of the rest of our draft though. Kral, SDA and Durzi were very good picks imo (might have preferred Addison over Durzi but still was very high on both).
 
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mt99808

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I watched prob 5-10 greyhound games this year and this guy constantly amazed me at how he could be so effective at his size in the OHL. I realize the AHL and NHL are a whole other level physically but i wouldnt write this kid off solely on his size.
 

FriendlyGiant

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Jul 28, 2006
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OK - I've cooled off a little now. I know I overreacted when I first saw this guy's profile. By the sounds of everyting I've read since, it appears that this guy is a really good hockey player. Will he be able to succeed in the NHL at 5'9"? Some have done it, but it's certainly a huge challenge - even in todays NHL. Only time will tell...
 
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Isaac Nootin

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I often vigorously debate with 93 on the draft thread for most of the year and he's one of the most knowledgeable, well-informed, and connected when it comes to the draft and prospects (especially in the OHL) if not the most. So it's funny to see a guy the rest of us never see in the prospects or draft threads acting all condescending like he actually knows what he's talking about in comparison. lol

I may not always agree with him, but stop being so disrespectful or dismissive. The guy knows his ****, and likely much more than you.

I guess he knows more than Dubas and his staff as well. They picked him after all.

I'm also an OHL season ticket holder, I've seen many of these kids first hand, including Hollowell/Durzi. Much more of Hollowell due to conference.

Get out of here with your disrespectful comment, it's an internet forum, serious business and all.
 

hockeywiz542

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May 26, 2008
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Hollowell thrilled to be joining Leafs
Known as a strong skater with excellent vision and the ability to move the puck quickly and accurately, Hollowell blossomed during the 2017-2018 campaign.

He proved himself to be a key in the Hounds puck-possession attack, the most-prolific offence in the OHL.

Asked if he was surprised to go so high in the 2018 draft, after being bypassed by NHL teams a year ago, Hollowell said no.

“I had a good year, I worked hard and I’ve earned it,” he said.
Hollowell also spoke of his excitement about heading for development camp, noting how he wants to prove to the Leafs how he’s “here to work hard and to keep getting better every day.”
 

PromoterDave

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Apr 22, 2016
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Idk why people hate on picks like this. This is exactly the type of player we should be aiming for in the draft. You cant teach offense and skill, but u can teach defense
 

Judas Tavares

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they are all out of the org now?!
2 of the 5 so called fridges are gone in Mattinen and Middleton. Rasanen, Gordeev and Greenway are still around. Gordeev and Greenway seem like longshots. It's the combo of how quickly we've let go of these guys, how low their upside seems and the way the game is today, that these types aren't that popular, with good reason. But at the same time, a lot of posters aren't happy with the offensive smaller defencemen either, worried about needing size in the playoffs.

It seems at this point if the defenceman is not between 6'0-6'3 and 180-195, they are either too small or too big. I guess we want defence Goldilocks instead of Gordeev and Greenway!
 

bonjovi0308

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I dont pretend to know much, but this is probably the most disliked pick of posters here, which I actually like. I would believe those who hated this pick today would love to eat crow someday. However, i think Hollowell may has a bigger chance making the Leafs than Rasanen(our 2nd round pick last year)
 

93LEAFS

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I don't even know how you could be mad at this pick, tbh.


I'd say those numbers are slightly misleading considering they lack an age regression. We drafted two 1998's. I'd also add, NHLe is misleading when it comes to euro-based prospects, as its measuring something that doesn't properly apply to them. You'd want to create a different number that accurately measures how scoring in that league for 18 to 20-year-olds applies to NHL scoring.

I don't have the numbers on hand or no where to get them, but the numbers from the CanucksArmy's guys would be much more representative. NHLe in general, really would kill Liljegren at 17 to Holloway and Durzi at 19 this year. Combine that with a lack of an age regression, he gets destroyed. For example, using current NHLe, and applying it to 2017 you get results like this.

Liljegren: 0.16 (over 19 games, let's just ignore his 5 games in Allsvenskan which would hurt him more)
Rasanan: 0.19 (66 games)

Just look at what Sandin and Kral were doing before they came over, and also compare the location of the picks used. 2016 and 2015 we didn't take a defender until the 3rd.

I'd also say, it was unfair of Jeffler to include Ryan O'Connoll, who plays in a league where you couldn't even apply his numbers to NHLe. This is an extreme example, but if we drafted Cale Makar in the 2nd round last year, instead of Rasanen, Rasanen would have a better effect on our numbers.
 
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Daisy Jane

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I’ve learned to get less excited about picks from the 4th to the 7th round. If they can get 1-2 NHLers over 2-3 years in these rounds, that’s good in my books.

The first 3 rounds are more pivotal for me.

This is a nice change from Hunters low skill giants that aren’t even in he organization anymore

they are all out of the org now?!
 

The CyNick

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Sep 17, 2009
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I don't see an issue with drafting guys you know the most about. If it was ALL players from there then it is a red flag but in the later rounds when everything is a gamble, why not?

Percentage wise it's pretty crazy. And it's not any of them were obvious choices where you can say yeah but he could pass on X.

This draft to me exposed the fact that his knowledge base is very limited. Hopefully he comes better prepared for the next draft before tearing up existing draft lists.
 

Lightsol

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Aug 2, 2005
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Proof?

I find that absurd. They spend millions of dollars on preparing for the draft, and half way through they just say "**** it, whatever"? Get out of here.
That was how the Detroit Lions drafted under Matt Millen. If you watch the NFL, you know how well THAT worked...
 

93LEAFS

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I guess he knows more than Dubas and his staff as well. They picked him after all.

I'm also an OHL season ticket holder, I've seen many of these kids first hand, including Hollowell/Durzi. Much more of Hollowell due to conference.

Get out of here with your disrespectful comment, it's an internet forum, serious business and all.
Except you have no idea on how an NHL draft board actually works, and are dead set on saying you are.

How about you show me where teams write out a full 217 person list. I've shown you multiple sources they don't go much past 100. Yet, you think I'm crazy for suggesting it.

And, if you want to defer to Dubas is always right. Why didn't good teams draft these guys before him? A bunch of smart NHL minds passed on them, and probably wouldn't have taken them anywhere near where he did. It doesn't make Dubas wrong, but its pretty ridiculous to just assume he's right and therefore not allowed to be criticized.
 

stickty111

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Jan 23, 2017
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Except you have no idea on how an NHL draft board actually works, and are dead set on saying you are.

How about you show me where teams write out a full 217 person list. I've shown you multiple sources they don't go much past 100. Yet, you think I'm crazy for suggesting it.

And, if you want to defer to Dubas is always right. Why didn't good teams draft these guys before him? A bunch of smart NHL minds passed on them, and probably wouldn't have taken them anywhere near where he did. It doesn't make Dubas wrong, but its pretty ridiculous to just assume he's right and therefore not allowed to be criticized.

This is really funny considering you were supporting master great talent expert Hunter.
Dont complain about people defending Dubas since you would do the same thing if fridge finder Hunter was GM.

And, if you want to defer to Dubas is always wrong. Why did good teams not draft the list you came up with? A bunch of smart NHL minds picked different players, and probably would have taken them near where he did. It doesn't make Dubas right, but its pretty ridiculous to just assume he's wrong and therefore not allowed to be praised.
 

93LEAFS

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This is really funny considering you were supporting master great talent expert Hunter.
Dont complain about people defending Dubas since you would do the same thing if fridge finder Hunter was GM.

And, if you want to defer to Dubas is always wrong. Why did good teams not draft the list you came up with? A bunch of smart NHL minds picked different players, and probably would have taken them near where he did. It doesn't make Dubas right, but its pretty ridiculous to just assume he's wrong and therefore not allowed to be praised.
When did I defend the fridge picks? I've bashed Hunter's picks before. I bashed Korshkov when it happened, I wanted Boris Katchouk. My only defense of Hunter, outside of the 1st round picks, is that hitting on 2 out of 5 picks in the 2nd round in 3 years is an effective rate, when everyone went to town claiming all his picks were gimmies.

He simply stated, I was wrong due to the fact Dubas picked them, and that I should accept them due to that? Its a ridiculous appeal to authority on a message board. I may not agree with people's opinions on prospects when I like a prospect and they don't, but my argument is never going to be, well, Hunter picked him, therefore your opinion is invalid. I'm not going to use a snide remark like "you must know more than someone" else to dismiss their opinion. Now, when someone disagrees, and there is an overwhelming consensus against for something, I'll point to that, but I would never go off just one person.

Dubas had quite a few off the board picks relative to NHL consensus this year. It doesn't make him wrong, but I don't think someone like Holloway and SDA go near where Dubas picked him, which you just claimed. Neither made Bob McKenzie's top 93, neither made Button's list. SDA is just 82nd among NHL Central Scouting for NA Skaters. The only person high on SDA was Pronman. Hollowell is 118th by CSB, and not in the top 120 for any scouting service that I can see. SDA was in the mid-100's according to Hockey Prospect's Black Book, and Hollowell and Durzi were not ranked.

Edit: If you think I'm such a Hunter Homer, here's my opinion of his last draft. See what I said about the fridge.

Timothy Liljegren (17th OA)
Eemeli Rasanen (59th OA)
Ian Scott (110th OA)
Vladislav Kara (124th OA)
Fedor Gordeev (141st OA)
Ryan McGregor (172nd OA)
Ryan O'Connell (203rd OA)

B+

Love the Liljegren pick. He fits the 3 major criteria to make a player a great pick in the mid-first round. He looked to be BPA, he fits a clear need, and he has extremely high potential.

Rasanen I'm indifferent. He's shown enough offense he shouldn't just be considered a big lug, although, like all picks in the late 2nd, he has obvious flaws that could derail him. Skating and inconsistency being the top of that list.

I love the Ian Scott pick. After taking Woll, I didn't want to use our only 2nd on a goalie after taking Woll who is progressing well last year, but did like the idea of getting a projectable one to add to the pool in the 4th or later. Scott seems like a good gamble there.

Past that, I'm indifferent. The odds on picks that late hitting are so small that I can't really get that upset for some outside the box thinking.

I'd give us an A+++++ though if you are including what that 3rd rounder we gave Detroit turned into for us.

2016: I wanted a bunch of people over Korshkov (a shocked of a pick) but would have taken Katchouk or Benson. In hindsight, I'm fine with Korshkov over Benson, but would trade him in a second for Katchouk.

2017: Liljegren was top of my board. Probably would have taken Lipanov over Rasanen but am fine with it in hindsight.

And here is what I said about Durzi mid-year when he was lighting up the OHL.

2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!
 
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moon111

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The Marlie's system and players like Bracco or Hollowell will be setting up other players to take the next step even if they don't do it themselves. Bozak had played with Kessel, but was handcuffed by Marner passes. Imagine if that was a kid being called up? Any Leaf prospect will already had the chance to play with dynamic play-makers that will match what's happening at the top should they advance.
 

Man Bear Pig

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Percentage wise it's pretty crazy. And it's not any of them were obvious choices where you can say yeah but he could pass on X.

This draft to me exposed the fact that his knowledge base is very limited. Hopefully he comes better prepared for the next draft before tearing up existing draft lists.
What are you going on about? You know that every scouting service had Sandin going in the late first right? The guy picks two Soo players and some of you go off the deep end. "Tearing up dtaft lists". Sure bud, sure.
 
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Prominence

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I’m going to be fixated on him during rookie camp and rookie tournament. I liked the later picks more than this one. His upside is essentially spurgeon or gostisbehere. We do need more shot suppressors, but the flavour of this draft was SKILL and one would have to go all in on skill just like we did in 2015.

One possible reason for this selection is that the scouts may have liked the pairing of him and sandin. I do not consider this as ssm bias because hunter did draft mattinen and ssm has developed a great program.
 

Green Snow Storm

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I dont pretend to know much, but this is probably the most disliked pick of posters here, which I actually like. I would believe those who hated this pick today would love to eat crow someday. However, i think Hollowell may has a bigger chance making the Leafs than Rasanen(our 2nd round pick last year)
Agreed, Rasanen is a terrible skater and he was homesick all year and is headed back to Europe. He’s a longshot for me at this point.
 

bonjovi0308

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Agreed, Rasanen is a terrible skater and he was homesick all year and is headed back to Europe. He’s a longshot for me at this point.
Yes, I remember there was a play that in last year's rookie tournament, a tryout (forgot his name, a small sized leading scorer in the tournament for the Leafs) just spinned around Rasanen with a nice move and I think he scored in that play....
 

JEI

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Would have preferred Kurashev who went 120th, but Hollowell has some talent for sure. It'll be interesting to see if he goes back to junior or is put AHL/ECHL. Technically they could sign them to AHL contracts before ELC as to not burn any contract years.

Him and Durzi in similar situations.
 

Nithoniniel

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I've heard that some metrics that have a terrific track record in terms of projecting future NHL d-men holds Hollowell really high. Curious which ones these would be, but I wonder if primary production at even strength is one of them, where I think he ranked third in the OHL?

That's certainly a nice indicator that he could perhaps be one of those exceptional, really small d-men who become impact players.
 
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