Prospect Info: Leafs 2018 4th Rd Draft Pick (#118 OA) - Mac Hollowell (5'9", 170, D, Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds)

[BertCorbeau]

I've heard that some metrics that have a terrific track record in terms of projecting future NHL d-men holds Hollowell really high. Curious which ones these would be, but I wonder if primary production at even strength is one of them, where I think he ranked third in the OHL?

That's certainly a nice indicator that he could perhaps be one of those exceptional, really small d-men who become impact players.

It's possible. I mean really there is not a strategy to hit on a later round pick. There are no key attributes that someone can clearly see that indicates the these 4th-7th rounders will be a home run hit. And in the last few years we've seen the Leafs try different things (from bigger d-man, to smaller skills wingers or centres). The reality is that it's nearly a crapshoot. And if the Leafs have some evidence to believe that whatever skills Hollowell has can translate to the next level and give him some NHL potential, why not take a shot.

 

[Nithoniniel]

It's possible. I mean really there is not a strategy to hit on a later round pick. There are no key attributes that someone can clearly see that indicates the these 4th-7th rounders will be a home run hit. And in the last few years we've seen the Leafs try different things (from bigger d-man, to smaller skills wingers or centres). The reality is that it's nearly a crapshoot. And if the Leafs have some evidence to believe that whatever skills Hollowell has can translate to the next level and give him some NHL potential, why not take a shot.

Indeed. If it was simple, there'd be teams getting consistent results. I do like having something to point towards for some hope though, that's not always the case.

 

[LeafSteel]

I guess we can't call him Big Mac?

Scratching my head on this pick, but as always, hoping for the best.....

 

[BertCorbeau]

Indeed. If it was simple, there'd be teams getting consistent results. I do like having something to point towards for some hope though, that's not always the case.

I get the impression with Hollowell that his underlying analytics were a driving factor in the pick .. But who knows.

Over the last handful of years I've started to not get wound up too much in the later round selections since we likely won't know anything about the prospect for a few years, and at that they're a very long shot.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I get the impression with Hollowell that his underlying analytics were a driving factor in the pick .. But who knows.

Over the last handful of years I've started to not get wound up too much in the later round selections since we likely won't know anything about the prospect for a few years, and at that they're a very long shot.

well there are quite a few things to like about Hollowell. he rebounded pretty easily from a broken fibula, which is impressive. he's also a fantastic skater and is extremely good with the puck. he obviously has his work cut out with him as a small guy, but he really does have everything he needs to develop into a legit player. it really comes down to how much you want to put limitations on him due to his height

 

[The CyNick]

What are you going on about? You know that every scouting service had Sandin going in the late first right? The guy picks two Soo players and some of you go off the deep end. "Tearing up dtaft lists". Sure bud, sure.

Draft list ripping wasnt reported by me. I was just commenting on it.

He passed up on multiple players ranked higher for Soo guys. Seems like a case of limited knowledge base. But let's see how the picks work out.

 

[LeafChief]

I'm not in love with this pick. Is he slated to join the Marlies next year? If so, I could see him going through the Marchment-style development (not playing very much in his first year and just working out/working on skills).

 

[pengdeng12]

Yes, 5’7 Jason Spurgeon (who’d be the 2nd best D man on the Leafs at the moment)

Nope. Gardiner and Mo >>

 

[Stand Witness]

The difference between a pick 118 and the undrafted guy for the most part is probably nothing. I am curious what the Leafs will do with the ECHL team. Maybe we invite a bunch of guys to the rookie camp and start filling out a roster with 2 way AHL contracts?

 

[Green Snow Storm]

We can look at players like Krug(undrafted) and Spurgeon(6th round pick) for hope. He has a lot of good tools. It’s hard to be a defenceman in the NHL at that size, but it’s also easier than it’s ever been.

 

[AllDay28]

damn, we didnt draft the next McDavid in the FOURTH round? Lets fire Dubas, Hunters better. Also, today I learn that people stop growing at 20.

 

[AllDay28]

Did you guys not see the post on TSN about the % of players in the NHL playing only 3 seasons, and how 3rd round and down is like under 10%? Stop wasting your time overanalyzing meaningless draft picks and be happy for the ones like Andreas Johnsson who make it through.

 

[ChrisCall]

For me anyway, it's about analyzing the philosophy.
Everyone is going to have their own lists and debate about which player they like better.

In fact, I will say that on these boards every year SOMEONE pounds the wall about a player being overlooked and ends up being right. If we had hindsight about which forum dude/gal was right about who and were the Leafs scouting department every player chosen would pretty much pan out.

Chances are there are Leafs scouts who lobbied for players in this year and past who turned out but the team took someone else instead. I remember when the Leafs used to air those 'Behind the Draft' specials there was a scene where someone was pushing hard for the Leafs to find a way to draft Mike Green. They decided to pass on it. Granted they would have had to move up to do it, but only to #29. Someone in that room really wanted Mike Green. They took Pogge.

I think the main thing in the last couple drafts is that people were a little skeptical of the philosophy Hunter appeared to employ. Dubas mentioned it in interview just yesterday, that if a player has size AND skill, they tend to go early, so just draft for skill in the later rounds and go from there. I get that the idea of hitting on a 7 foot D-man developing into Chara is drool worthy, but there's that fine line to stupid worth considering.

Mainly though, someone in the room is always right. They just don't often get heard.

 

[Menzinger]

What are you going on about? You know that every scouting service had Sandin going in the late first right? The guy picks two Soo players and some of you go off the deep end. "Tearing up dtaft lists". Sure bud, sure.

Some predictable suspects make drama where there is none. It’ll happen, especially so soon after the Gm change where they didn’t get their preferred guy for the job

 

[FreeBird]

Guess he really wants to build that AHL dynasty. jk

More likely the Growlers, bringing the ECHL title to the Rock is their first year is a must.

 

[Hoverhand]

Maybe trying for a round later would have been ideal but from what i've read about him he's seems to have a high offensive upside so i'll bite my tongue for now.

I get the impression with Hollowell that his underlying analytics were a driving factor in the pick .. But who knows.

Over the last handful of years I've started to not get wound up too much in the later round selections since we likely won't know anything about the prospect for a few years, and at that they're a very long shot.

Maybe Later: Mac Hollowell

There's a case to be made for that. TLN did a pretty informative article on him a few weeks back. He's analytically friendly in a few areas, not so friendly in others.

 

[hotpaws]

Also, today I learn that people stop growing at 20.

the vast majority of people are done growing by 20 , except it seems for Leaf draft picks since i read this exact same comment every time we draft a smurf

 

[Menzinger]

the vast majority of people are done growing by 20 , except it seems for Leaf draft picks since i read this exact same comment every time we draft a smurf

Height perhaps, strength training and building doesn’t end there.

 

[4thline]

Will be curious to see if he gets the Brooks (a lot of similarities there) treatment and sent back to have an MVP calibre season or if Dubas will move ahead with the baseball styled multi tiered development system and send him to the Growlers

 

[Kiwi]

Height perhaps, strength training and building doesn’t end there.

Is hard to pack on a lot of weight/muscle to a small frame without it effecting mobility and quickness

Hollowell is an interesting one to me, I definitely think we took him to high but I don't mind the general idea of player type or how were looking to team build

 

[Menzinger]

Is hard to pack on a lot of weight/muscle to a small frame without it effecting mobility and quickness

Hollowell is an interesting one to me, I definitely think we took him to high but I don't mind the general idea of player type or how were looking to team build

It can certainly impact that stuff to a degree, but the broader point is these guys are likely at least 4 years away from potentially making the NHL, and that’s an awful lot of development time. We shouldn’t presume that the body a guy has in June of 2018 will be the same as he has in October of 2022

 

[Kiwi]

It can certainly impact that stuff to a degree, but the broader point is these guys are likely at least 4 years away from potentially making the NHL, and that’s an awful lot of development time. We shouldn’t presume that the body a guy has in June of 2018 will be the same as he has in October of 2022

He's an overager though so his timeline is pushed up, rather Ryan 4 years he's probably only got about 3

I think his development paths is going to be interesting, he's AHL OHL and ECHL eligible so they have a lot of leeway on how he's brought on

 

[nuck]

We can look at players like Krug(undrafted) and Spurgeon(6th round pick) for hope. He has a lot of good tools. It’s hard to be a defenceman in the NHL at that size, but it’s also easier than it’s ever been.

Agree with this. By the 4th round you have to be hoping for lightning in a bottle no matter who it is, and it looks like the only thing this guy is missing is the size.

 

[Havoc]

Is hard to pack on a lot of weight/muscle to a small frame without it effecting mobility and quickness

Hollowell is an interesting one to me, I definitely think we took him to high but I don't mind the general idea of player type or how were looking to team build

When players slow down from "bulking up" it's from their fat gain, not muscle gain.

Hockey players don't body build. You can get strong and not gain significant muscle. As long as the players stay lean, extra muscle shouldn't effect anything anyways. That extra muscle is a sign of their increased performance.

I'm sure a lot of prospects don't pan out because they have no idea on how to train and eat properly for performance. This is where development staff need to step in.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Not a Leafs fan, but I am down here in Dallas doing some draft related activities (some call it "work", but that has a negative connotation), and I could not be more thrilled for this pick. Hollowell is very small, but he is one of the best skaters in the entire draft class, smart, skilled and plays a pretty mature game all things considered.

My write up on him, for whatever it's worth...

2. Mac Hollowell (Soo [OHL] #11, RHS, RD/LD) - Remarkably mobile, offensive-minded defenseman. Hollowell has one of the finest skating bases in his age group. He can motor around the rink forwards, backwards, laterally, any way you want it and he can beat virtually anyone to any spot. Has a penchant for escapability and swinging his net and just leaving forecheckers in his wake. Has a terrific skill set and can make guys miss with the combo of his speed, edges and stick work. He isn't just a reckless offensive d-man either, he is actually very smart in all facets. He has high-end hockey IQ and exhibits that at all times. Defensively he is well positioned, but can be over-matched size wise. Even in his jersey, it looks like he's wearing his father's suit. He avoids taking big hits because it's like nailing Jell-o to a tree trying to track him down. He has elite skating and elite hockey IQ and plenty of skill, that makes him a player regardless of his size.

Hockey Sense: A
Skating speed/power/acc: A+
Skating lateral/edges/agility: A+
Vision: A
Puck skills: A-
Shot: B-
Defense technique: B
Defense urgency: C
Frame/size: F
Ceiling/Risk: V.High/med (2nd rd)


Now, I may be the biggest Hollowell (and Joey Keane, for that matter) pimp in Dallas, but there are a few followers that I talked to. There are also a number of teams that had him as ND because of his size. Even a couple OHL GMs I talked to were a little taken aback that I had him as my #2 d-man in the O. One analytics guy I talked to (real analytics, not corsi stuff) graded him very highly.


Also, unrelated, I was staying in the same hotel as Rasmus Sandin (who I am a big fan of as well...very smart player), I talked to him a couple times since he was selected...he couldn't be more thrilled to be a Maple Leaf. He won't take that Leafs hat off, it's been glued to his head since he got it on stage haha

Sandin is my #3 d-man in the OHL for the record. I thought both OHL d-men were great value picks...