LD Bowen Byram - Vancouver Giants, WHL (2019, 4th, COL) Part 2

[TheGoldenJet]

I thought Byram struggled early on at the WJC, adjusted, and got better as the games went on.

Kind of what you want to see from a development standpoint. Player gets challenged, player responds, hopefully he finds a new level in league play after this.

 

[PlayersLtd]

He had a so and so tournament.

I honestly think he is injured or battling something because Ive seen him live plenty of times here in Vancouver with the Giants and he looks nothing like how he was last year.

Agreed. Byram single handedly beat the Royals last year in the playoffs and heading into this season I think it was fair to expect them to be on par with Kamloops. Instead they have somehow regressed.

Honest question, but is this due in part to an underwhelming season by Byram? (I haven't been able to watch much.)

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Bowen Byram's season has been a mystery.
(at least statistically wisely)

Scored 26 goals, 71 points last season.
+ 8 goals, 26 points in the play-offs

This season, 3 goals, 20 points in 31 games so far.
Only 1 goal in his last 20 games (7 assists).

His ppg avg has dropped from 1.07 to 0.64
His sog avg has dropped from 2.95 to 2.38
His pim avg thou has gone up from 1.20 to 1.77

---

Are the Giants significantly worse this season what last season?

Vancouver had the 2nd best record in the entire WHL last season; 49 W 19 L (103 points).
2nd fewest goals against, 8th most goals for.

Vancouver is 19 W 23 L this season (42 points), 7th in the West. (15th in the WHL)
5th fewest goals against, 20th most goals for.

 

[Vide]

On pace for 43 points over a 67 game season. That would be 28 fewer points than last season in the same amount of games.

Only 3 goals in 33 games too, over a 67 season that is 6 goals, twenty fewer than the 26 goals he scored last year.

That's a pretty big step backwards in production I must say but of course these are only stats.

How has he looked for those of you who has seen him play this season in WHL?

 

[Ararana]

On pace for 43 points over a 67 game season. That would be 28 fewer points than last season in the same amount of games.

Only 3 goals in 33 games too, over a 67 season that is 6 goals, twenty fewer than the 26 goals he scored last year.

That's a pretty big step backwards in production I must say but of course these are only stats.

How has he looked for those of you who has seen him play this season in WHL?

Pronman's opinion from just a few weeks ago:

Pronman: Guide to the 2020 world juniors

Bowen Byram (Colorado): Byram has not had the great statistical season you would expect of a fourth-overall pick in junior who also was great offensively the prior season in the WHL. The team around him is not that great offensively, as of this writing the Vancouver Giants are 15 out of 22 WHL teams in goals. How much you want to put that on Byram versus his teammates is subject to debate. In the games I’ve watched, he’s looked like the same old great Byram, and reports from NHL scouts have been very positive. He’s playing the same monster minutes he was last season.

 

[Hasbro]

That's a pretty big step backwards in production I must say but of course these are only stats.

 

[Goulet17]

Production has not been the same, but most who are watching him are indicating that he has been playing at a high level.

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[FreeMcdavid]

where has is offence gone. i have tickets to the Giants game in a couple of weeks so i can have a better look.

Earlier this season and in this thread i mentioned his lack of production and development might be from an injury but i dont know anymore. Huge mystery with this guy. The Giants arent as talented offensively as last year but they still have some weapons and i thought BB would be able to elevate them. on pace for 5 goals compared to 26 last year. Was that a flash in the pan and a spike in development?

 

[S E P H]

That's a pretty big step backwards in production I must say but of course these are only stats.

How has he looked for those of you who has seen him play this season in WHL?

He's been good not great, but it has been a pretty frustrating season all around for the Giants. Team-wise, they thought they were going to take the next level, but a lot of their 2020 draft hopefuls plateaued (besides Sourdif) and a lot of their veterans were carried by overagers last year. Everyone should've seen that Byram wasn't going to replicate his points from last season, he got an absurd amount of them during 3v3 and that's a gimmick to prevent ties. This isn't a negative post, he's still going to be a very good player, but he picked up a lot of rubbish points which he isn't getting this year.

 

[Icebreakers]

How does he compare to Juolevi in his d+1?

 

[NuxFan09]

How does he compare to Juolevi in his d+1?

That's actually an interesting comparison (not as players, before I get jumped on, but in terms of the situation with their draft + 1 season).

 

[newfy]

On pace for 43 points over a 67 game season. That would be 28 fewer points than last season in the same amount of games.

Only 3 goals in 33 games too, over a 67 season that is 6 goals, twenty fewer than the 26 goals he scored last year.

That's a pretty big step backwards in production I must say but of course these are only stats.

How has he looked for those of you who has seen him play this season in WHL?

Regardless of team situation, that big of a statistical regression for a 4th overall pick is concerning. Twenty fewer goals seems ridiculous to think about for a guy who is now a year older.

Thats not saying hes still not a great prospect but I thought the points would start to come at some point. For a 4th overall pick who in a clear class of his own for dmen on draft day, your team situation shouldnt impact your points this much. Points wise he wouldnt even be having a good offensive season if it was still his draft year

 

[PWJunior]

Regardless of team situation, that big of a statistical regression for a 4th overall pick is concerning. Twenty fewer goals seems ridiculous to think about for a guy who is now a year older.

Thats not saying hes still not a great prospect but I thought the points would start to come at some point. For a 4th overall pick who in a clear class of his own for dmen on draft day, your team situation shouldnt impact your points this much. Points wise he wouldnt even be having a good offensive season if it was still his draft year

Dobson was in a similar situation in his D+1 before he was traded and his season turned around. He was essentially the same player in AB and RN though despite the difference in production. The assist totals were night and day for obvious reasons, but Dobson was consistent scoring goals and getting a lot of SOG's on both teams.

I agree that the vast difference in goal scoring from last year to this one is concerning. A less talented supporting cast is going to depress his assist totals, but his SOG's and goals shouldn't be as adversely affected.

 

[newfy]

Dobson was in a similar situation in his D+1 before he was traded and his season turned around. He was essentially the same player in AB and RN though despite the difference in production. The assist totals were night and day for obvious reasons, but Dobson was consistent scoring goals and getting a lot of SOG's on both teams.

I agree that the vast difference in goal scoring from last year to this one is concerning. A less talented supporting cast is going to depress his assist totals, but his SOG's and goals shouldn't be as adversely affected.

Couple things. Dobson with the Titan was on the worst team in the league, they scored 28 goals less than the next closest team. Vancouver is nothing special but theyre better than Acadie-Bathhurst.

But yeah the goal total is the most concerning part. Dobson wasnt drafted as much for his offense as Byram was, was a lower pick and still had 9 goals on such a brutal team. Thats what I mean when I say a guy that highly ranked should be able to create some offense of his own in junior. Dobson was still scoring goals and a bad team impacted his assists. Byrams stats are bad all around on a better team than Dobsons

 

[Papa Francouz]

I can tell you that no one in Colorado is concerned with Bryan’s play this year. He looks the same as last year, but was tasked with developing his defensive game more if he wants to make the NHL next year, and by all accounts that’s what he’s done this year in the WHL.

Also, he wasn’t drafted as an OFD, so his offensive numbers aren’t the end all, be all for him. He’s expected to become a good TWD who can chip in 40-50 points and provide shutdown defense for ~25 mins per night in his prime. That’s what the Avs need more than a purely offensive guy: a defensive guy with some offense. We already have an offensive guy with some defense in Makar. The two can balance each other out.

 

[Icebreakers]

I can tell you that no one in Colorado is concerned with Bryan’s play this year. He looks the same as last year, but was tasked with developing his defensive game more if he wants to make the NHL next year, and by all accounts that’s what he’s done this year in the WHL.

Also, he wasn’t drafted as an OFD, so his offensive numbers aren’t the end all, be all for him. He’s expected to become a good TWD who can chip in 40-50 points and provide shutdown defense for ~25 mins per night in his prime. That’s what the Avs need more than a purely offensive guy: a defensive guy with some offense. We already have an offensive guy with some defense in Makar. The two can balance each other out.

More like 25-35 points 40-50 is an offensive D especially if they don't get pp1 time which he won't.

 

[Zaddy]

Dobson was in a similar situation in his D+1 before he was traded and his season turned around. He was essentially the same player in AB and RN though despite the difference in production. The assist totals were night and day for obvious reasons, but Dobson was consistent scoring goals and getting a lot of SOG's on both teams.

I agree that the vast difference in goal scoring from last year to this one is concerning. A less talented supporting cast is going to depress his assist totals, but his SOG's and goals shouldn't be as adversely affected.

As @newfy said, Dobson was more of a two-way D with shutdown capabilities. Not as gifted offensively as Byram is, so it's more understandable that his numbers took a hit. Byram needs to produce offense as that will be his primary role in the NHL. Of course if he indeed is focusing on his defensive game this season and his offense is taking a hit because of it, then I have no problem with that because that is where he needs the most improvement. The offense will likely still be there regardless.

However, as most of you know, I do think that he was way overrated last year and I think we're seeing him come back to earth a little bit. My take is that he's better than his numbers show now, but he's not as good as his numbers last year. They were inflated like @S E P H pointed out in his post.

I can tell you that no one in Colorado is concerned with Bryan’s play this year. He looks the same as last year, but was tasked with developing his defensive game more if he wants to make the NHL next year, and by all accounts that’s what he’s done this year in the WHL.

Also, he wasn’t drafted as an OFD, so his offensive numbers aren’t the end all, be all for him. He’s expected to become a good TWD who can chip in 40-50 points and provide shutdown defense for ~25 mins per night in his prime. That’s what the Avs need more than a purely offensive guy: a defensive guy with some offense. We already have an offensive guy with some defense in Makar. The two can balance each other out.

Disagree with this. I highly doubt he's ever going to be a shutdown D at the NHL level. I don't think his defensive zone play will ever be anything more than 'adequate'. He's still miles away from even being adequate at the NHL level in terms of defense, so for him to go from where he is now to being a legit shutdown D seems far-fetched. But the hope is that at least he won't be a liability out there while providing a lot of offense.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

As @newfy said, Dobson was more of a two-way D with shutdown capabilities. Not as gifted offensively as Byram is, so it's more understandable that his numbers took a hit. Byram needs to produce offense as that will be his primary role in the NHL. Of course if he indeed is focusing on his defensive game this season and his offense is taking a hit because of it, then I have no problem with that because that is where he needs the most improvement. The offense will likely still be there regardless.

However, as most of you know, I do think that he was way overrated last year and I think we're seeing him come back to earth a little bit. My take is that he's better than his numbers show now, but he's not as good as his numbers last year. They were inflated like @S E P H pointed out in his post.



Disagree with this. I highly doubt he's ever going to be a shutdown D at the NHL level. I don't think his defensive zone play will ever be anything more than 'adequate'. He's still miles away from even being adequate at the NHL level in terms of defense, so for him to go from where he is now to being a legit shutdown D seems far-fetched. But the hope is that at least he won't be a liability out there while providing a lot of offense.

You can certainly disagree with it. It just makes you more wrong.


He's absolutely going to be used as a two-way defender in the NHL and that is his skillset.

That's why he was used in such a shut down role for Team Canada at the World Juniors, and why Colorado drafted him in the first place. And why they want him working on his defensive game this year.


His bread and butter in the NHL is going to be his ability to play bothering ends of the ice at a high end level.

 

[tigervixxxen]

He looks the same to me and plays the same game. He is shooting 3.6% so some positive regression should come. At times it’s looked like he’s lacked some strength in his shot as he supposedly dealt with an upper body injury he played through earlier in the year and then lost a lot of weight from the sickness in the Czech Republic. It’s also a tough team situation and he’s double covered quite a lot, they don’t possess the puck much, have an awful power play (and looks like he’s picked up some tips from the Avs on how to play on it) and generally has to force creating offense. As said the Avs don’t need him to be a top goal scorer when we have Makar, he’s pretty easily going to succeed Erik Johnson in that all-situations minutes hound. Where Byram has made the biggest growth in his game in using his physicality and he is an excellent penalty killer, which is why Canada leaned on him as such to secure the gold medal.

 

[Papa Francouz]

More like 25-35 points 40-50 is an offensive D especially if they don't get pp1 time which he won't.

That’s fair. I think he’ll hover more around 40 points per season than 25-35, personally, and be more like a Ryan Suter-type of player that shuts down opposing forwards but also picks up his fair share of points via his transition game. I do think Byram will be the PPQB on the second unit, but I’m not sure how many of his points will come from that particular role.

Disagree with this. I highly doubt he's ever going to be a shutdown D at the NHL level. I don't think his defensive zone play will ever be anything more than 'adequate'. He's still miles away from even being adequate at the NHL level in terms of defense, so for him to go from where he is now to being a legit shutdown D seems far-fetched. But the hope is that at least he won't be a liability out there while providing a lot of offense.

He was drafted under the assumption that he would be a TWD, not a pure OFD. He was told to go back to Vancouver and work on his defensive game, which by all accounts he done. I think his evolving role at the WJC also speaks to his ability as a minus-munching defender, as his ice time increased game-over-game and he was out there to protect the lead in the final minutes of the gold medal game.

As an aside, pure shutdown defensemen in the NHL do show offensive ability in their youth, but transition to a more defensive role once they hit the NHL. A pure shutdown defenseman in juniors almost never makes the NHL due to their complete lack of offense. I think you’re selling Byram short by saying he’ll never be a shutdown guy in the NHL - his IQ, skating ability, and physicality are good signs that he can develop a strong defensive game. If he can still maintain his opportunistic scoring, as @S E P H has called it, then I don’t know what you could call him if not a TWD.

 

[S E P H]

He was drafted under the assumption that he would be a TWD, not a pure OFD. He was told to go back to Vancouver and work on his defensive game, which by all accounts he done. I think his evolving role at the WJC also speaks to his ability as a minus-munching defender, as his ice time increased game-over-game and he was out there to protect the lead in the final minutes of the gold medal game.

The problem though is that he really hasn't and people are taking his WJC performance a little too far. Don't get me wrong, what he was able to do as an underager at that tournament was impressive. However, there have been a trillion different players who looked like Gretzky and never amount to anything. It's a short tournament and doesn't really implicate how well a player will do in the future. The biggest problem with the Giants, is that they don't really have a lot of talent and Byram gets to play like half of the game as he did last season. They do use him in all situations, but Giants rather use him and play him 80% of an entire powerplay than the penalty kill. In the end he's eventually being forced to play the exact same way he did last year, which asks how much growth is honestly getting?

I think there have been strides in his defensive game, but he scored like twenty-goals last season and posted the same amount of points as Niedermayer did as a draft eligible prospect. He has nothing left to learn against his age group and if there wasn't a CHL/AHL agreement, he would be currently right now with the Colorado Eagles. A big reason why he didn't make the NHL is because he's physically under-developed - something I mentioned during rookie camp last season -, but that comes with time so not super worried about that. The more concerning issue is I wanted him to get a taste of how men play and specifically their speed and power every shift, that's why I still wanted him to join the NLA as Matthews did. Even though I suggest that part of his offensive skills got overrated, that is still his bread and butter.

 

[Papa Francouz]

The problem though is that he really hasn't and people are taking his WJC performance a little too far. Don't get me wrong, what he was able to do as an underager at that tournament was impressive. However, there have been a trillion different players who looked like Gretzky and never amount to anything. It's a short tournament and doesn't really implicate how well a player will do in the future. The biggest problem with the Giants, is that they don't really have a lot of talent and Byram gets to play like half of the game as he did last season. They do use him in all situations, but Giants rather use him and play him 80% of an entire powerplay than the penalty kill. In the end he's eventually being forced to play the exact same way he did last year, which asks how much growth is honestly getting?

I think there have been strides in his defensive game, but he scored like twenty-goals last season and posted the same amount of points as Niedermayer did as a draft eligible prospect. He has nothing left to learn against his age group and if there wasn't a CHL/AHL agreement, he would be currently right now with the Colorado Eagles. A big reason why he didn't make the NHL is because he's physically under-developed - something I mentioned during rookie camp last season -, but that comes with time so not super worried about that. The more concerning issue is I wanted him to get a taste of how men play and specifically their speed and power every shift, that's why I still wanted him to join the NLA as Matthews did. Even though I suggest that part of his offensive skills got overrated, that is still his bread and butter.

I think that's fair. I'm also not a Byram fanboy - look at my post history and you'll see I was hot for Turcotte and Zegras last year. I'm not claiming he's the next great defenseman, or anything, but I think he's being underestimated due to his lack of offensive production this year. He also had some major illness during the WJC and I think that only adds to the impressiveness of what he was able to do there.

Admittedly, I haven't seen him in Vancouver this year, but what I've heard from someone close to the Avs org is that they tasked him to work on his defense this year, and that they are happy with the progress that they've seen so far this season. I'm sure if the Avs org were displeased with how he was being developed, they would step in and ask the Giants to change things up. He might be playing in the same situations as last year, but is he playing the exact same way? Again, I haven't seen him this year, so I wouldn't know. I'm just going off the assumption that he's looking better as a defender since the Avs are happy with the strides he's made this year.

I'm fully on board with your frustration with regards to the CHL/AHL agreement, by the way. A player like Byram should be playing against men, like you said, not against other kids that aren't anything like the competition he's going to see once he makes the jump to the NHL. As for offense being his bread and butter, that might be the case as of now, but if the Avs develop him how they want and don't screw it up (lol fat chance), then he will be a more rounded player than a pure OFD. The Avs want good transition play from their defensemen with how the team is structured and how Bednar's system works, and if Byram can make that happen, then I know the Avs will be happier than if he turned into a purely offensive defenseman.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Byram getting some time in at the end of this spring in the AHL would probably benefit him much like it did Sam Girard in his 18 year old season but sending top 5 picks for full seasons in the AHL is a bad idea (if it were even possible) or look at the Avs’ AHL graduation rate. It’s not a magic portal that turns guys into NHL players, but I digress.

The Giants are using him on the pk, if Byram hadn’t been a key part of killing off a penalty and then a subsequent 5 minute major they wouldn’t have received a point in a tie game last weekend.

 

[S E P H]

I think that's fair. I'm also not a Byram fanboy - look at my post history and you'll see I was hot for Turcotte and Zegras last year. I'm not claiming he's the next great defenseman, or anything, but I think he's being underestimated due to his lack of offensive production this year. He also had some major illness during the WJC and I think that only adds to the impressiveness of what he was able to do there.

Admittedly, I haven't seen him in Vancouver this year, but what I've heard from someone close to the Avs org is that they tasked him to work on his defense this year, and that they are happy with the progress that they've seen so far this season. I'm sure if the Avs org were displeased with how he was being developed, they would step in and ask the Giants to change things up. He might be playing in the same situations as last year, but is he playing the exact same way? Again, I haven't seen him this year, so I wouldn't know. I'm just going off the assumption that he's looking better as a defender since the Avs are happy with the strides he's made this year.

I'm fully on board with your frustration with regards to the CHL/AHL agreement, by the way. A player like Byram should be playing against men, like you said, not against other kids that aren't anything like the competition he's going to see once he makes the jump to the NHL. As for offense being his bread and butter, that might be the case as of now, but if the Avs develop him how they want and don't screw it up (lol fat chance), then he will be a more rounded player than a pure OFD. The Avs want good transition play from their defensemen with how the team is structured and how Bednar's system works, and if Byram can make that happen, then I know the Avs will be happier than if he turned into a purely offensive defenseman.

I think his offence got extremely overrated to the point Avs picked him 4th, then simply underrated the last quarter of the season. You know me as well Papa, he wasn't my first choice or second and I still suggest he got overhyped during his draft year. With all that said, he's still going to be a top 3 defender and I think he has average #2 potential.

I used the comparison of Morgan Rielly more so than Doughty simply because I don't see top pairing defence in his game. I suggest he can eventually develop into a two-way defender, but as Rielly has problems at times with defence, Byram should have probably the same. However, there are many different factors that go into defence, some people believe you need to be Adam Foote to be classified as a good defensive-defender, others suggest that IQ and smarts like Lidstrom/Heiskanen equal to defensive prowess, sometimes you have monsters like Hedman or Pronger shutting down players with their will alone, and finally you have all around defenders that have the IQ and physicality such as Doughty.

Byram won't become as good as the players I listed above, but there are other ways he can contribute to defence such as being calm under forechequing, good decision with the puck, crisp passing, and transition game. It goes in the area where when he's on the ice - perhaps analytics can back this up - you play less team defence simply because he's able to control the play more. He's still an opportunist for me, where he's able to capitalise without having much of the puck, but I think Avs become better when he plays with the puck more. The problem for him to learn and why I think there will be some big growing pains is because some of the moves he's going to make on NHLers won't work as they do in juniors...then add that his cocky and confidence are quite high.

 

[Papa Francouz]

I think his offence got extremely overrated to the point Avs picked him 4th, then simply underrated the last quarter of the season. You know me as well Papa, he wasn't my first choice or second and I still suggest he got overhyped during his draft year. With all that said, he's still going to be a top 3 defender and I think he has average #2 potential.

I used the comparison of Morgan Rielly more so than Doughty simply because I don't see top pairing defence in his game. I suggest he can eventually develop into a two-way defender, but as Rielly has problems at times with defence, Byram should have probably the same. However, there are many different factors that go into defence, some people believe you need to be Adam Foote to be classified as a good defensive-defender, others suggest that IQ and smarts like Lidstrom/Heiskanen equal to defensive prowess, sometimes you have monsters like Hedman or Pronger shutting down players with their will alone, and finally you have all around defenders that have the IQ and physicality such as Doughty.

Byram won't become as good as the players I listed above, but there are other ways he can contribute to defence such as being calm under forechequing, good decision with the puck, crisp passing, and transition game. It goes in the area where when he's on the ice - perhaps analytics can back this up - you play less team defence simply because he's able to control the play more. He's still an opportunist for me, where he's able to capitalise without having much of the puck, but I think Avs become better when he plays with the puck more. The problem for him to learn and why I think there will be some big growing pains is because some of the moves he's going to make on NHLers won't work as they do in juniors...then add that his cocky and confidence are quite high.

His raw offensive numbers definitely boosted him higher on most lists, I would imagine, especially if those ranking him didn't see his opportunistic style of play and correlate that with his huge minutes in the W. Where we disagree is on his upside, as I could see him becoming an average #1, or a higher-end #2. If the Avs get a top-4 guy out of him at all, that's a success.

What is it with his game that makes you think he can't become a TWD in the mold of Suter? From what I've seen and heard, his IQ, skating, and physicality are all good predictors that he can overcome whatever shortcomings he has and round out his game. He won't be as smart as Heiskanen or as physical as Hedman, but I think he could strike a good mix between the two. Combined with his opportunistic offensive instincts, I could see him topping out as a #1. Not a superstar, but a good player on the top pairing.

If he doesn't develop into a player like the ones you listed and only develops into what you describe in your third paragraph, I don't think I would be upset. That basically sounds like a perfect modern-day NHL defenseman. Additionally, I see his high confidence being a good thing in the long run. It'll need to get broken down a bit so he can develop the right habits for the NHL game, but once he learns those things and incorporates them into his game, his confidence can help him on both sides of the puck.