Lars Eller - The Adventure Continues...

Status
Not open for further replies.

Lafleurs Guy

Guuuuuuuy!
Jul 20, 2007
75,636
45,803
I didn't look at just this season. I compared the last 2 years because Weise(another 3rd liner) was acquired then. Of course, we compare last year only? I don't know but Eller's 2012-13 was great but I haven't seen him sustain anything close to that.
No kidding.

His usage is the difference here. How can you not see this?
PP stats:

2012-13: 5 PPP in 32:27
2013-14: 3 PPP in 85:22
2014-15: 2 PPP in 36:00

ES stats:

2012-13: 25 ESP in 582:08
2013-14: 21 ESP in 1,035:16
2014-15: 23 ESP in 1,053:46

5 on 5 GF60 when Eller is on the ice:

2010-11: 1.837
2011-12: 1.825
2012-13: 3.156
2013-14: 1.588
2014-15: 1.929

Honestly, after his strong 2012-13 season Eller got more PP, scored less on PP. He got more ES TOI, scored less on ES. Even his line as a whole went from 3.156 when he's on the ice back to his normal rate(actually, it went lower for him).

Even his GA60 was his career worst in 2013-14.

I kind of feel like 2012-13 was an outlier at this point. People can be as far back as they want but the recent stats tell the story. When we evaluate DSP, DD, Pacioretty, Price and others on what they did the last 1-2 years but Eller we go back to 2012-13 all the time.

No one goes around saying Carey Price had a .905 Save % in 2012-13! No one. We say "look how he is now, one of the best players in the world!"

When it's for Eller we go way back.

It's as foolish as calling DD a 60 point center.
You're talking about a young player who was establishing himself. 2013 was his breakout year. It's not surprising at all that his production wouldn't be great before this because he was establishing himself as an NHL player.

What doesn't make sense is that after a great season we'd give him less offensive opportunity but that's exactly what happened. And it started to happen at the beginning of the 2014 season. Coming into that year Eller got off to a great start. 8 points in 8 games. Then we go into Edmonton and he says something that the coach doesn't like. We lost the game and it seems like Eller's been in the doghouse since. Ever since then his production hasn't been the same.

As for this season - Eller's production fell off a cliff. He went through a brutal slump much of which coincided with Therrien's idiotic decision to replace him at center with a raw rookie. All you have proven here is what we've been telling you for a long time now... usage matters.
I feel the same.

In 2012-13, the EGG line were young guys in game shape from the start with things to prove in a league full of vets that didn't really train or want to play that year. That has "potential outlier" written all over.
You are looking at this through the wrong end of the telescope.

The guy has a great year in 2013. He's a big young center with good potential - something we've needed for years. So what do we do? We break up his line and shove him to the 3rd line. We take away his PP minutes and make him a defensive scrub. Not surprisingly his numbers sink.

It's totally stupid of the coach to take a guy with potential and then use him as a dishrag to do the dirty work. Then people actually sit there and go "SEE! He has no offensive potential!" BS.

It would be one thing if we had used him as the 2nd line center after 2013 and he failed... then your "outlier" argument would hold water and we could all go back to talking about PK Subban and whether or not he should be allowed to triple low five. Instead we junk the kid into the 3rd line and folks like yourself are now saying that 2013 was some kind of fluke...

It makes absolutely zero sense to use him the way we did. Eller's got more potential than we've seen and he's proven it. He's an infinitely superior player to DD (who racks up some of the easiest minutes in the NHL) but we use him as a defensive scrub. The bottom line is that we've wasted any real potential he's had and we'll never really know how good he really is because we've never given him a serious chance. When given a chance he produced. So why the hell did we break up that line? Why didn't we give him more opportunity to develop? The reality is that his production at 5 on 5 is similar to Plek's and he's a much better player than DD. Why we've used him the way we have is a total mystery.
And then you have that great playoffs run last year. It was great, but the shooting percentages for both Eller and Bourque were unsustainable. Had it been happening on the Leafs or Bruins or Sens, we'd all be saying exactly that: 3rd liners with 20% shooting percentage --> unsustainable --> try again next year, see if it works.

The hypocrisy/selective memory on that issue is incredible.

And again, so we're clear: I'm happy if Eller shoots at 20% during a good streak. I just don't expect it to be the norm and I don't analyze him as if it's his normal sh%.
No player is going to shoot at 20 percent for his career. But there are underlying numbers to look at and Eller's have been good for how he's been used. I won't speak for the arguments you're referring to here as I didn't make them but I do think that when the chips are down Eller tends to play good hockey and DD tends to fade away. This just makes it all the more mystifying on how we've used him.
 
Last edited:

Brainiac

Registered Offender
Feb 17, 2013
12,709
610
Montreal
How we use our centers will always remain an issue, until we finally get a top one.

And yet, when we get that #1C, Eller will still be on the third line... :sarcasm:

I went out drinking with the guys last night and this morning, I realized that I inconciously added an item to my check list:

-Keys, check
-Wallet, check
-Cell phone, no drunk texting, check
-No infraction because of the Eller thread, check!

:laugh:
 

Brainiac

Registered Offender
Feb 17, 2013
12,709
610
Montreal
Or, he simply stated what he heard out of Edmonton. They would be willing to move him for a top D+.

First, I doubt he heard anything from EDM. He was just speculating.

Secondly, it was Subban + 3rd overall for Yakupov. Just Subban is insane and nobody would do it. Then add the 3rd overall.

Have you ever seen a team give away a #1 defensman just to move up two spots in the draft?

He was misquoted quite a bit on that one, but the original comment was still dumb as hell.


Which would be fine.
Top Center
Plek
Eller

Nobody would complain about this.

Pretty sure a lot of posters would still complain.
 

Rosso Scuderia

Registered User
Jun 30, 2012
9,932
4,115
Or, he simply stated what he heard out of Edmonton. They would be willing to move him for a top D+.



Which would be fine.
Top Center
Plek
Eller

Nobody would complain about this.

Yep...

until Eller surpasses Plekanec which I still think it COULD be possible. Not saying it will but I still think Eller has the potential to be a 2nd center for us we find a very good 1st.

Last 2 playoffs convinced me that Eller has the ability to bring his game to another level. Yes last playoffs he wasn't as productive as we hoped but his production was still "normal" for a third center considering the number of goals scored and compared to Plek and DD. Eller has shown that he can be effective in the playoffs and with good wingers and PP, he could easily play the role of a 2nd center. It's been two years that he's our best center in the playoffs. Not saying that he's a playoffs performer but at least he has shown that he step up his game and play effectively in the playoffs, unlike Plekanec and DD.
 

LyricalLyricist

Registered User
Aug 21, 2007
37,909
5,815
Montreal
No kidding.

His usage is the difference here. How can you not see this?

I see it just fine. I compared two bottom 6 players over last 2 years, both of which got top 6 time on occasion. Weise destroys him in P/60 and everyone knows Eller is the better player. That's why certain metrics can point you in a direction but we need to stop and think if they make sense too. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. I consider Eller's 'breakout' season an outlier.

You're talking about a young player who was establishing himself. 2013 was his breakout year. It's not surprising at all that his production wouldn't be great before this because he was establishing himself as an NHL player.

What doesn't make sense is that after a great season we'd give him less offensive opportunity but that's exactly what happened. And it started to happen at the beginning of the 2014 season. Coming into that year Eller got off to a great start. 8 points in 8 games. Then we go into Edmonton and he says something that the coach doesn't like. We lost the game and it seems like Eller's been in the doghouse since. Ever since then his production hasn't been the same.

As for this season - Eller's production fell off a cliff. He went through a brutal slump much of which coincided with Therrien's idiotic decision to replace him at center with a raw rookie. All you have proven here is what we've been telling you for a long time now... usage matters.

I'm not sure how you quantify things but again, he got more ES TOI, more PP TOI, more OZS, better linemates and produced less. He also got more defensive zone starts as well, that's why the OZS% is lower but in raw numbers he had more.

262 OZS in 2013-14 vs 167 in 2012-13.

Shortened season? Of course but when looking at the fundamentals:

30 points in 46 GP vs 26 in 77 GP I mean...

I'm not looking at a PPG here. Eller got more opportunity by the end of the year and failed to recreate anything of that magnitude.

Saying he was in doghouse after 8 games is completely false.

After the Edmonton game(game 9) Eller average 18 minutes a game or so playing with EGG and getting PP time. How is this the doghouse by any stretch of the imagination?

I'm not saying he got preferential treatment or got offensive minutes all year but game 9 and on? really? Over next 5 games:

Game 9 2:49 PP, 0:00 PK TOI (DD 2:16 PP, 0:10 PK) (Plekanec 3:14 PP, 3:06 PK)
Game 10 0:45 PP, 0:32 PK TOI (DD 0:00 PP, 0:00 PK) (Plekanec 1:15 PP, 3:50 PK)
Game 11 4:05 PP, 2:29 PK TOI (DD 1:29 PP, 0:00 PK) (Plekanec 3:25 PP, 3:35 PK)
Game 12 2:09 PP, 0:05 PK TOI (DD 1:01 PP, 0:00 PK) (Plekanec 2:50 PP, 1:15 PK)
Game 13 1:12 PP, 0:15 PK TOI (DD 0:02 PP, 0:00 PK) (Plekanec 1:09 PP, 0:48 PK)

How is this doghouse usage? He barely even played PK!
 

Brainiac

Registered Offender
Feb 17, 2013
12,709
610
Montreal
Take McDavid who has the potential of becoming a generational talent. Would it surprise you if the asking price was Carey price?

Some people overrate the 1st overall so much it's insane. All 1st overall are not equal.

Anybody with half a brain knows very well, without hindsight and all, that McDavid >>>>> Yakupov. It's not even close. Back in 2012, everybody knew that it was a weak draft in terms of elite talent.

Hence, McGuire's comment was pretty dumb. Because he's overrating the 1st overall.
 

HABNIKO

Registered User
Jun 29, 2015
189
16
Montreal
Eller is just avg 3rd line center and nothing more. Although I also agree that he has the tools to jump to top six but with his attitude he will remain at 3rd line position as was expected to begin with. Nothing great but I guess Eller is better than nothing!
 

Milhouse40

Registered User
Aug 19, 2010
22,153
24,772
Eller is just avg 3rd line center and nothing more. Although I also agree that he has the tools to jump to top six but with his attitude he will remain at 3rd line position as was expected to begin with. Nothing great but I guess Eller is better than nothing!

And tell us about his attitude?
You seem to know a lot about it.....
 

Brainiac

Registered Offender
Feb 17, 2013
12,709
610
Montreal
Eller is just avg 3rd line center and nothing more. Although I also agree that he has the tools to jump to top six but with his attitude he will remain at 3rd line position as was expected to begin with. Nothing great but I guess Eller is better than nothing!

On that one, though, I disagree. He's not an average third liner. He's a very good one.

The only thing where I disagree with Eller's fans is that I think he's best suited for that role and moving him up to the first or second line might not yield the expected results.
 

Nynja*

Guest
Eller is just avg 3rd line center and nothing more. Although I also agree that he has the tools to jump to top six but with his attitude he will remain at 3rd line position as was expected to begin with. Nothing great but I guess Eller is better than nothing!

He's an average third liner, based on the fact he gets saddled with garbage defensive deployment against the oppositions top units, and constantly and reliably winds up pushing the play back into the offensive zone.

Yup, makes sense.
 

Rosso Scuderia

Registered User
Jun 30, 2012
9,932
4,115
Eller disappears for half the season. He has been provided with the opportunities to jump to 2nd line center and came out flat. So what else is there to blame it on?

He doesn't disappear. Only his offensive part of his game is struggling but he remains an effective 3rd line center. His stats is still average/good as a 3rd center, would have been way better if he had decent wingers that can score more than 5 goals per season. Eller is still to 50 for center league wide in goals, and about top 40 for even strength goals. That's pretty good for a third center.

At least he is there when it matters the most, which is the playoffs. Not many team we can say that the third outplays and outproduces the top 2 centers.
 

Nynja*

Guest
Eller disappears for half the season. He has been provided with the opportunities to jump to 2nd line center and came out flat. So what else is there to blame it on?

I'm sorry, what? Do we have a different definition of "provided with opportunities"?
 

S Bah

Registered User
Nov 7, 2010
9,126
566
victoria bc
The really strange factor about Eller's worth, is his name always comes up in any trade talks with other GM's, like the Evander Kane trade talks. Why is that do you suppose?:nod: When Bergevin first became the Habs GM, he was frequently asked if Eller was available, which only heightened Bergy's interest as to why so many were asking.:popcorn: I would like to see Eller playing a full season with the same linemates, preferably with JDLR(LW) and one of Zack Kassian or Mike McCarron on their RW, that could be a very effective two/way checking line, capable of scoring also once they build some chemistry and experience with each others talents.
 
Last edited:

Soltantgris

Registered User
May 31, 2010
782
14
The really strange factor about Eller's worth, is his name always comes up in any trade talks with other GM's, like the Evander Kane trade talks. Why is that do you suppose?:nod: When Bergevin first became the Habs GM, he was frequently asked if Eller was available, which only heightened Bergy's interest as to why so many were asking.:popcorn: I would like to see Eller playing a full season with the same linemates, preferably with JDLR(LW) and one of Zack Kassian or Mike McCarron on their RW, that could be a very effective two/way checking line, capable of scoring also once they build some chemistry and experience with each others talents.

Don't where you take your information about GMs asking for Eller.

And Kassian is the last guy you want on a checking line role. Don't know for McCarron. Mid term, we may get better luck with something like Hudon/Eller/Scherbak.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad