Laine v Matthews. Ceiling/Potential

[VoluntaryDom]

they both good.

you know what else is good?

libertarianism

 

[Blue Shakehead]

Oh boy. You know the delusion is real from Laine fanboys when the attempted new narrative is that Laine was as good or better at two-way play than Matthews.

Laine was a possession blackhole at 5v5 and one of the worst players on the Jets in relative possession numbers. Meanwhile Matthews was a strong possession driver at 5v5 and one of the best on the Leafs in relative possession numbers.

On top of all, Laine's relative CA numbers are worse than Matthews relCA numbers if we're truly trying to eliminate the effect of team systems and pinpoint each player's impact within their structure.

Y'all need a break from HF if you're only here to try and convince yourself and others of objective lies.

How is the 48% possession player at 5 on 5 not a dominant force worthy of the Selke? Mental gymnastics on display dude. He was a +6

Matthews with Hyman - 52% Corsi
Matthews without Hyman - 47% Corsi

What is the definition of a possession blackhole again? 48% you say?

 

[MoreMogilny]

It's very obvious Laine's ceiling/potential is a lot higher. Not even a question if you watch them play.

Lmfao.

Man some of these posts in this thread. It's fine to lean one way or the other but the hyperbole is crazy.

Both players have incredible potential. But it's one thing to have a high ceiling, but it takes a heck of a lot of things going right to reach it.

"Raw" gets used a lot but the actual reality is that measuring something so arbitrary is impossible.

 

[Soliloquy of a Dogge]

I think that their two way play and games from a defensive standpoint will be relatively similar. Matthews will most likely be a more reliable and more well rounded player on a night to night basis. As of now, that's not the case as evidenced by his incredibly high percentage of offensive zone starts last season and sheltered match-ups. As far as point totals, Matthews looks like a 45-40 guy while maybe flirting with 50-50 in a career year. I'd put Laine in the same breath there in terms of a stat line.

Very little to choose between the two. Leafs fans should get used to Laine and Eichel being mentioned in the same breath as Matthews because as of this moment, there's no gap between them and there likely will never be.

 

[ColdSteel2]

Laine for ceiling, Matthews for more safe/sure thing.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

It's very obvious Laine's ceiling/potential is a lot higher. Not even a question if you watch them play.

Yes of course, very compelling arguments. Amazing.

 

[Legion34]

Matthews with Hyman - 52% Corsi
Matthews without Hyman - 47% Corsi

What is the definition of a possession blackhole again? 48% you say?

And how much time did they spend apart???

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

And how much time did they spend apart???

15% of the year i believe. I also don't think it's reasonable to argue Hyman had that much of an affect on Matthews

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

Matthews with Hyman - 52% Corsi
Matthews without Hyman - 47% Corsi

What is the definition of a possession blackhole again? 48% you say?

Also, who had more D-Zone starts?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Also, who had more D-Zone starts?

DZone starts have been proven to have an extremely small impact on possession stats. Most shifts are done on the fly

 

[wabagee]

Also, who had more D-Zone starts?

Nope,nope,nope, my dad said nope! Hyman can't be a good player!

 

[TheDoldrums]

Matthews with Hyman - 52% Corsi
Matthews without Hyman - 47% Corsi

What is the definition of a possession blackhole again? 48% you say?

Matthews literally started every game with Hyman on his line. The only times he wasn't playing with him were post-PK when Hyman was tired or when they were getting blown out and Babcock just experimented for a period. The sample size without is assuredly tiny.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Matthews literally started every game with Hyman on his line. The only times he wasn't playing with him were post-PK when Hyman was tired or when they were getting blown out and Babcock just experimented for a period. The sample size without is assuredly tiny.

Yeah. Also I am pretty sure Laine's stats without Scheifele are even worse, and I think it's easier to believe Scheifele helped Laine more than Hyman helped Matthews

 

[wabagee]

Yeah. Also I am pretty sure Laine's stats without Scheifele are even worse, and I think it's easier to believe Scheifele helped Laine more than Hyman helped Matthews

Scheifeles stats without Laine are worse to no?

 

[Blue Shakehead]

15% of the year i believe. I also don't think it's reasonable to argue Hyman had that much of an affect on Matthews

Who knows? All we know is that Babcok knows what he's doing and he had Hyman handcuffed to Matthews all year and it doesn't look like it was so Matthews could help Hymans possession stats. I believe the numbers are similar for Nylander and Matthews (but not as extreme)..Matthews possession was better with Nylander than without but not vice versa.

Also, who had more D-Zone starts?

DZone starts have been proven to have an extremely small impact on possession stats. Most shifts are done on the fly

Usually. In Matthews case however, he started 63% of shifts in the ozone. Those are significant numbers. We should expect some kind of bump in possession stats with that kind of advantage.

Matthews literally started every game with Hyman on his line. The only times he wasn't playing with him were post-PK when Hyman was tired or when they were getting blown out and Babcock just experimented for a period. The sample size without is assuredly tiny.

I wouldn't call over 200 minutes tiny. It's small. But it's not insignificant. Laines first half numbers were really bad but he was a completely different player in the 2nd half as he got used to the North American game and was switched to RW. My point in bringing it up was that these things get to argued in extremes - "Laine was a possession black hole getting hemmed in every shift and Matthews is driving play". There are some red flags here. It's not all black and white. I expect both of them to make huge strides In the 200 foot game this year. In Laine's case, the first vs 2nd half numbers seem to back that up.

There are some issues with the data on the Winnipeg end too. Laine played significant minutes with Ben Chiarot and Mark Stuart - two of the bottom 5 possession defensemen in the NHL. He also got to see time with Julien Melchiori and Nelson Nogier at D. Who? Exactly. Complete scrubs. The Leafs had 6 man games lost to injury in their top 4 last year. These are all factors.

Yeah. Also I am pretty sure Laine's stats without Scheifele are even worse, and I think it's easier to believe Scheifele helped Laine more than Hyman helped Matthews

I haven't looked in awhile, but I don't think that's quite true. The possession monster on the Jets is Wheeler, not Scheifele.

 

[libertarian]

Scheifeles stats without Laine are worse to no?

Laine needs scheifele a hell of a lot more then the other way around. In a couple of years that should change but probably not this coming season.

 

[libertarian]

Who knows? All we know is that Babcok knows what he's doing and he had Hyman handcuffed to Matthews all year and it doesn't look like it was so Matthews could help Hymans possession stats. I believe the numbers are similar for Nylander and Matthews....Matthews possession was better with Nylander than without but not vice versa.





Usually. In Matthews case however, he started 63% of shifts in the ozone. Those are significant numbers. We should expect some kind of bump in possession stats with that kind of advantage.



I wouldn't call over 200 minutes tiny. It's small. But it's not insignificant. Laines first half numbers were really bad but he was a completely different player in the 2nd half as he got used to the North American game. My point in briniging it up was that these things get to argued in extremes - "Laine was a possession black hole getting hemmed in every shift and Matthews is driving play". There are some red flags here. It's not all black and white. I expect both of them to make huge strides In the 200 foot game this year. In Laine's case, the first vs 2nd half numbers seem to back that up.

There are some issues with the data on the Winnipeg end too. Laine played significant minutes with Ben Chiarot and Makr Stuart - two of the bottom 5 possession defensemen in the NHL. He also got to see time with Julien Melchiori and Nelson Nogier at D. Who? Exactly. Complete scrubs. The Leafs had 6 man games lost to injury in their top 4 last year. These are all factors.



I haven't looked in awhile, but I don't think that's quite true. The possession monster on the Jets is Wheeler, not Scheifele.

This is true but IIRC Scheifele was 2nd on the team.

 

[TheDoldrums]

I wouldn't call over 200 minutes tiny. It's small. But it's not insignificant.

Where are you getting those minutes? I'm not trying to ask a gotcha question, I'm just legitimately curious since hockeyanalysis went down.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Who knows? All we know is that Babcok knows what he's doing and he had Hyman handcuffed to Matthews all year and it doesn't look like it was so Matthews could help Hymans possession stats. I believe the numbers are similar for Nylander and Matthews....Matthews possession was better with Nylander than without but not vice versa.

Usually. In Matthews case however, he started 63% of shifts in the ozone. Those are significant numbers. We should expect some kind of bump in possession stats with that kind of advantage.

I wouldn't call over 200 minutes tiny. It's small. But it's not insignificant. Laines first half numbers were really bad but he was a completely different player in the 2nd half as he got used to the North American game and was switched to RW. My point in briniging it up was that these things get to argued in extremes - "Laine was a possession black hole getting hemmed in every shift and Matthews is driving play". There are some red flags here. It's not all black and white. I expect both of them to make huge strides In the 200 foot game this year. In Laine's case, the first vs 2nd half numbers seem to back that up.

There are some issues with the data on the Winnipeg end too. Laine played significant minutes with Ben Chiarot and Mark Stuart - two of the bottom 5 possession defensemen in the NHL. He also got to see time with Julien Melchiori and Nelson Nogier at D. Who? Exactly. Complete scrubs. The Leafs had 6 man games lost to injury in their top 4 last year. These are all factors.

I haven't looked in awhile, but I don't think that's quite true. The possession monster on the Jets is Wheeler, not Scheifele.

What if all Babcock wanted to accomplish with playing Hyman with Matthews is to spread out our offense, even if it hurt Matthews' play? It would still be the right coaching decision even if it doesn't give any advantage to Matthews

63% in the OZone really isn't that significant. Crosby started the same amount there, and as I said, most shifts are done on the fly. It probably helped him but not as much as people believe.

200 minutes out of 1400 is pretty insignificant tbh. It's like 11 games

Matthews had to spend time playing with guys like Marincin, Hunwick, and Polak on the backend. They certainly aren't much help. And I'd certainly trade any of them for the Jets defensemen if they come with Scheifele or Wheeler or Ehlers as a linemate instead of Hyman.

Scheifele may not be a possession monster, but he's better in literally every facet of the game compared to Hyman. Significantly better

 

[wabagee]

Laine needs scheifele a hell of a lot more then the other way around. In a couple of years that should change but probably not this coming season.

A hell lot more I'm not sure, Scheifele relied just as much on his teammates, not everyone is Mcdavid! Matthews might be great, Laine might be too. Everybody just wait and see!

 

[libertarian]

A hell lot more I'm not sure, Scheifele relied just as much on his teammates, not everyone is Mcdavid! Matthews might be great, Laine might be too. Everybody just wait and see!

When Scheifele took over Little position as 1C he was producing at the same rate 2 season ago without Laine as he did with Laine last season. Laine production drop much more when not playing with Scheifele then when Scheifele played without him. This is not a criticism of Laine he was a rookie playing on NA ice for the first time and will need time to adjust. When Laine hits his peak in a few year I would not be surprised if this reverses. Really when Scheifele, Ehlers, and Laine are all in the prime I believe they will be the most dominate line in hockey with all of them being PPG players.

 

[wabagee]

Scheifele still dropped production without him playing less minutes, Laine dropped playing less minutes after a concussion.

 

[BlueBaron]

How can people not be tired of making these threads yet?

Ask a million times and maybe eventually the majority will tell you the answer you want to hear.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

Where are you getting those minutes? I'm not trying to ask a gotcha question, I'm just legitimately curious since hockeyanalysis went down.

Yeah, I've been lost without that site too, but I remember seeing a WOWY graph on one of the Jets blogs when they made the case for Laine to win the Calder. Even if you just look at total ice time on Hockey a Reference, I think Matthews got 120 more minutes at ES than Hyman. Add in a couple shifts a game where they didn't all change at the same time, or Matthews just finished PP or Hyman just finished PK and you get to 200 minutes pretty easy. Don't quote me but I think it was something like 240 mins.

What if all Babcock wanted to accomplish with playing Hyman with Matthews is to spread out our offense, even if it hurt Matthews' play? It would still be the right coaching decision even if it doesn't give any advantage to Matthews

That could very well be. But if it was just a case of spreading out the offence, I doubt Babcock would have been as stubborn about the Hyman-Matthews pairing. He'd have shuffled the wingers around more. It would be crazy to say that Hyman was dragging Matthews around, but it certainly looks like he helped in the possession game (definitely not in the offence game).

63% in the OZone really isn't that significant. Crosby started the same amount there, and as I said, most shifts are done on the fly. It probably helped him but not as much as people believe.

Yep, it helped a bit but that line and the Leafs generally would have been a positive posession line either way.

200 minutes out of 1400 is pretty insignificant tbh. It's like 11 games

Matthews had to spend time playing with guys like Marincin, Hunwick, and Polak on the backend. They certainly aren't much help. And I'd certainly trade any of them for the Jets defensemen if they come with Scheifele or Wheeler or Ehlers as a linemate instead of Hyman.

Scheifele may not be a possession monster, but he's better in literally every facet of the game compared to Hyman. Significantly better

Yes, fair points. We are talking two different things here now though. Laine's linemates were an advantage in scoring and the numbers Matthews was able to put up with Hyman attached to his hip were nothing short of incredible. But Posession wise, the Leafs as a whole were superior and Laines TOI with Stuart/Chiarot are factors. Hunwick and Marincin are worlds better.

 

[Narow]

This is true but IIRC Scheifele was 2nd on the team.

Scheifeles most common linemate was wheeler...

Likewise matthews most common linemate (besides hymam obviously) was nylander...leafs best possesion player