Player Discussion: Laine (Mod warning OP)

[Atoyot]

Totally agree, Malkin never looks like he's breaking a sweat.

Yep, another fun thing is that the worse their skating mechanics are the more effort they're perceived to be putting in because of how much they're flailing around. Funny enough that's why I was thought to be a high effort waterbug player, because of the complete lack of fluidity while I was skating

 

[Jets 31]

The market has changed and is still changing. And I have no idea how negotiations with Laine might ultimately come to a conclusion (nor does anyone else). But I truly hope that this notion put forward by Whileee that there may exist amongst the players a "socialized expectation" that Laine not view himself as having much higher value, is simply unfounded. If it does exist, Chevy has got far more problems than we can imagine.

I always thought players wanted guys getting big contracts , then when their contracts came up they could ask for the same money.

 

[Jets 31]

One thing about it, with what's going on in the world with Covid and no fans at games, Laine might not get what he thinks he deserves. No fans at games until 2022 would decide that for him unfortunately .

 

[KingBogo]

Agreed. All of the contracts that we have signed to our young core players have been market rate deals at the time of signing. There haven't been any discounts given by the player.

Scheifele signed a similar deal to Barkov, Mackinnon and Monahan. Those were his direct market comps the year he signed. Now 3 of those players are significantly under paid but that is due to the market changing.

Morrissey is inked to deal that pays him in the 30th range of dmen in the league. That is fair value given that he ranks somewhere in that range as a player.

Ehlers deal is comparable to other deals to good wingers like Forsberg.

Helle got a similar contract to a similar caliber goalie at the same age in Holtby and Gibson.

The market has changed lately and expecting Laine to take a discount now is not at all realistic.

Does the bolded hold true if we see a lowering of contracts? Based on the evidence this off season there has been a strong downward push by the market place on salaries. If we have another off season with a strong downward push on salaries will Laine be willing to sign a contract consistent with what other top young RFAs settle for which maybe several million less then he could have got pre-Covid?

 

[surixon]

Does the bolded hold true if we see a lowering of contracts? Based on the evidence this off season there has been a strong downward push by the market place on salaries. If we have another off season with a strong downward push on salaries will Laine be willing to sign a contract consistent with what other top young RFAs settle for which maybe several million less then he could have got pre-Covid?

If COVID lowers the market then it sucks to be Laine. We have already seen players like Hall, Rheinheart take one year deals in the hopes that it rebounds. If it doesn't then Laine has to live with the new realities of the market and he may not get much more then 7.5 million next summer.

 

[KingBogo]

If COVID lowers the market then it sucks to be Laine. We have already seen players like Hall, Rheinheart take one year deals in the hopes that it rebounds. If it doesn't then Laine has to live with the new realities of the market and he may not get much more then 7.5 million next summer.

It could be worse for him contract wise, if we go a couple years without fans in the stands we may see a real pull back in salaries that will be very startling for players. Even with a vaccine it is very possible society will have to rethink mass gatherings for sporting events, especially those held indoors during the winter months, which may eventually lead to much smaller crowd sizes and far less revenue to pay out salaries.

 

[surixon]

It could be worse for him contract wise, if we go a couple years without fans in the stands we may see a real pull back in salaries that will be very startling for players. Even with a vaccine it is very possible society will have to rethink mass gatherings for sporting events, especially those held indoors during the winter months, which may eventually lead to much smaller crowd sizes and far less revenue to pay out salaries.

I personally have no issue with that. I feel professional athletes make way too much cash anyhow for what they do. I wouldnt have any issue with society electing to put more cash into far more important things.

 

[Eyeseeing]

One thing about it, with what's going on in the world with Covid and no fans at games, Laine might not get what he thinks he deserves. No fans at games until 2022 would decide that for him unfortunately .

Nice thing about athletes they all play for the love of the game

 

[Whileee]

You continue to put significant weight on the problems created by a possible contract with Laine that would disturb the player cap structure that is in place right now. This is of course a legitimate consideration but it is something that was totally foreseeable by Chevy going back to last years negotiations, and is something that every GM is faced with as they attempt to negotiate with elite RFA`s in recent years. Sure Scheifele`s salary is a great value right now, but I respectfully suggest that it was a product of a market-based discussion at that time, and not as you imply,something less than market he graciously offered because of his buy-in to the team. The disturbance to player cap structure across the League was nowhere more noticeable than in Colorado where Rantanen signed a deal well above McKinnon`s earlier negotiated contract.

I'd suggest that if Laine was willing to sign Rantanen's deal ($9.25M x 6 years), the Jets would probably have him signed already (they were willing to give him a very high $6.75M on a bridge deal). I'd add that Connor signed for $7.1M x 7 years last off-season (just above Laine's bridge deal).

I've indicated that I don't have any issue with Laine getting paid the most on the Jets, and I would expect that the Jets and other players on the Jets would probably be okay with that. But the fact that they haven't been able to agree on a deal, and that Chevy gave Laine such a rich bridge deal, suggests that the Jets are willing to pay Laine a lot, but that so far it hasn't been enough for Laine.

As I noted in an earlier post, Buff's agent (Hankinson) provided some very interesting insights into internal dynamics around salary structure. It's not just about who makes more, but also how it affects the ability of the team to build a strong roster in a cap system.

My point isn't to focus so much on the amount Laine is worth (though I've shared my views about that previously), but more to refocus attention on the issue of contract / salary as a central part of the issue with Laine.

 

[Dessert Nights]

Imho what Laine did during his rookie season, it should have been pretty clear he will most likely ask for a bit more money than other players currently in the team. That's when Chevy should have started to plan how he can sign all of his core players when there's a time for the new contracts. So even though Laine might not deserve the deal he was going to be "worth" after his rookie season, there still shouldn't be any issues to give him that deal. Chevy should have made that sure. And if he will be "worth" less, then it just means it will give some extra cap flexibility.

 

[PhilJets]

I'd suggest that if Laine was willing to sign Rantanen's deal ($9.25M x 6 years), the Jets would probably have him signed already (they were willing to give him a very high $6.75M on a bridge deal). I'd add that Connor signed for $7.1M x 7 years last off-season (just above Laine's bridge deal).

I've indicated that I don't have any issue with Laine getting paid the most on the Jets, and I would expect that the Jets and other players on the Jets would probably be okay with that. But the fact that they haven't been able to agree on a deal, and that Chevy gave Laine such a rich bridge deal, suggests that the Jets are willing to pay Laine a lot, but that so far it hasn't been enough for Laine.

As I noted in an earlier post, Buff's agent (Hankinson) provided some very interesting insights into internal dynamics around salary structure. It's not just about who makes more, but also how it affects the ability of the team to build a strong roster in a cap system.

My point isn't to focus so much on the amount Laine is worth (though I've shared my views about that previously), but more to refocus attention on the issue of contract / salary as a central part of the issue with Laine.

Hi Whilee

Was it possible before to sign him at 9.25M at time?
Remember also 2 things
Buff still hangs in a cloud.
Connor signed after Laine

Thanks

 

[Whileee]

Hi Whilee

Was it possible before to sign him at 9.25M at time?
Remember also 2 things
Buff still hangs in a cloud.
Connor signed after Laine

Thanks

Good point. Jets might have been forced to somehow dump salary from Kulikov or Perreault, and that wouldn't have been easy. The Buff situation really messed the Jets up.

 

[PhilJets]

The impact of Laine doesnt stop just with the team.
You can see it here in hfboard and socialmedia, for the Jets fans and other teams fans.
He is one player that is always talked about, no one is even close. In Jets team.
Imagine oue hfboard without Laine.
Boring ........


Seriously

The impact of Laine is big for the team.
You can see it in the WcF runs.
Schiefele is the undisputed best players.
But all series ,other teams freakin shift defensive scheme and pk format cause of Laine s presence.
You can not also teach scoring key goals. It doesnt get accounted in x and o.

Im pumped
Laine is training this early in the season.
Including improving his swing!!!

 

[PhilJets]

Im going to put a twist here.
Let say Laine signed for 6 - 8 at 9+m then.

What is left for KC? he signed after Laine.
He would probably be the one bridges if that happened.
Easier was to bridge Laine and locked KC at that moment. Not because Laine doesnt want to be a Jets but, there is much more potential for Laine moving forward. Chevy said that himself.


There is a big possibily that even though both party could sign at a long term then.
I am pretty sure Jets would be all over it to sign Laine between 9-10M. If possible.
Just at that off season, going forward, capwise its not possible. And they needed to sign Connor after Laine.

We didnt know whats going on with Buffs mind.
But id he retired before the draft.
It would probably be a different scenarion.
With maybe a signed Laine long term and a dman signed.

 

[DRW204]

Hi Whilee

Was it possible before to sign him at 9.25M at time?
Remember also 2 things
Buff still hangs in a cloud.
Connor signed after Laine

Thanks

he was not worth 9.25 at the time and still isn't. he was coming off a 50 pt year and had 9goals 25pts post november (in 58 gp). even now, instead of his camp being quiet or working towards an extension (which they're eligible to sign right now) they're still claiming usage and top line mins are a problem and a trade would be beneficial for them.

 

[SCP Guy]

I feel that Buff dragging out his decision is ultimately going to cost the Jets the chance to ink Laine long term....I think that option is prob now off the table from their side of things so this will end with a trade sometime in the next 24 months

 

[ecolad]

I'd suggest that if Laine was willing to sign Rantanen's deal ($9.25M x 6 years), the Jets would probably have him signed already (they were willing to give him a very high $6.75M on a bridge deal). I'd add that Connor signed for $7.1M x 7 years last off-season (just above Laine's bridge deal).

I've indicated that I don't have any issue with Laine getting paid the most on the Jets, and I would expect that the Jets and other players on the Jets would probably be okay with that. But the fact that they haven't been able to agree on a deal, and that Chevy gave Laine such a rich bridge deal, suggests that the Jets are willing to pay Laine a lot, but that so far it hasn't been enough for Laine.

As I noted in an earlier post, Buff's agent (Hankinson) provided some very interesting insights into internal dynamics around salary structure. It's not just about who makes more, but also how it affects the ability of the team to build a strong roster in a cap system.

My point isn't to focus so much on the amount Laine is worth (though I've shared my views about that previously), but more to refocus attention on the issue of contract / salary as a central part of the issue with Laine.

May I respectfully suggest that you are drawing far too much from the simple fact that there is YET no signed deal in place to take over when the existing bridge deal ends after this coming season.Both parties agreed to a 2 year "show me" bridge deal last year - at least in part because of the difficulty in establishing a fair market value for Laine. The first year of the bridge has done little to help both parties come to agreement and Laines camp are increasingly anxious that Laine be given every reasonable opportunity to show his worth in the second year,as evidenced by an (ill conceived) media strategy to turn the spotlight of public opinion on this issue. Is it not possible that there is really no meaningful negotiation going on at all at this juncture - that both parties, by common agreement, still want to see what happens over the better part of the 2nd year before engaging in meaningful negotiation? It might not be that Laine has rejected a Chevy offer as not enough as you postulate, it may be that there is no such offer YET on the table?

Oh yeah, I don`t think the Jets would have signed Laine to the same $9.25 M x 6 year deal as Rantanen got. Laine simply hadn`t shown at that time that he was worthy of that type of deal and I suspect Chevy would have done exactly what he did -pursue a 2 year "show me" bridge instead.

 

[surixon]

May I respectfully suggest that you are drawing far too much from the simple fact that there is YET no signed deal in place to take over when the existing bridge deal ends after this coming season.Both parties agreed to a 2 year "show me" bridge deal last year - at least in part because of the difficulty in establishing a fair market value for Laine. The first year of the bridge has done little to help both parties come to agreement and Laines camp are increasingly anxious that Laine be given every reasonable opportunity to show his worth in the second year,as evidenced by an (ill conceived) media strategy to turn the spotlight of public opinion on this issue. Is it not possible that there is really no meaningful negotiation going on at all at this juncture - that both parties, by common agreement, still want to see what happens over the better part of the 2nd year before engaging in meaningful negotiation? It might not be that Laine has rejected a Chevy offer as not enough as you postulate, it may be that there is no such offer YET on the table?

Oh yeah, I don`t think the Jets would have signed Laine to the same $9.25 M x 6 year deal as Rantanen got. Laine simply hadn`t shown at that time that he was worthy of that type of deal and I suspect Chevy would have done exactly what he did -pursue a 2 year "show me" bridge instead.

I imagine the absolute most that would have been on the table by the Jets at the time would have been the Wheeler deal. Same AAV but over a longer term like 6 or 7 years.

 

[PhilJets]

he was not worth 9.25 at the time and still isn't. he was coming off a 50 pt year and had 9goals 25pts post november (in 58 gp). even now, instead of his camp being quiet or working towards an extension (which they're eligible to sign right now) they're still claiming usage and top line mins are a problem and a trade would be beneficial for them.

You keep looking at jan to march (last year) of his ELC
. That is around 17% of his elc regular season career. Look at the other 80%.
Then add his playoff and records and achievements.

Look at the whole picture. It was actually pretty good. Actually it is the best showing of any players under any Jets franchise at that age (3 yrs 18-20) ,not named Hawerchuk or Kovalchuk.
He was injured also during that disastrous stretch.
All Jets were garbage during that stretch.

Im not saying he should absolutely have to get that amount. I am actually below that my prediction.

But if he is to be lock at 6 to 8 yrs?
21 to 28 years old Prime years.
3-4 yrs UFA years.
Then you will need to add more in avg salary.


At that moment anything above 8.0M for Laine at long term. It was not possible for the Jets with Buff contract and Connor still needs to be sign.
We also don't know if chevy was looking for better defensemen to fill the need left by the dmen who signed/traded elsewhere that off season. He needed some cap flexibility. Jets is one of the team that i believe will not buyout any players as long as they can find a different way just to open up some cap space.

 

[abax44]

Did you guys hear the interview with Buff's agent recently? Definitely shed a little light on some things. Nothing ground breaking, just hearing it from that side.

 

[KingBogo]

Did you guys hear the interview with Buff's agent recently? Definitely shed a little light on some things. Nothing ground breaking, just hearing it from that side.

Do you h have a link?

 

[ecolad]

I imagine the absolute most that would have been on the table by the Jets at the time would have been the Wheeler deal. Same AAV but over a longer term like 6 or 7 years.

Maybe - but I`m not sure Chevy could manage even that number and remain cap compliant. Remember Buff was still being carried on the books at that time.

 

[Halberdier]

I'd suggest that if Laine was willing to sign Rantanen's deal ($9.25M x 6 years), the Jets would probably have him signed already (they were willing to give him a very high $6.75M on a bridge deal). I'd add that Connor signed for $7.1M x 7 years last off-season (just above Laine's bridge deal).

I've indicated that I don't have any issue with Laine getting paid the most on the Jets, and I would expect that the Jets and other players on the Jets would probably be okay with that. But the fact that they haven't been able to agree on a deal, and that Chevy gave Laine such a rich bridge deal, suggests that the Jets are willing to pay Laine a lot, but that so far it hasn't been enough for Laine.

As I noted in an earlier post, Buff's agent (Hankinson) provided some very interesting insights into internal dynamics around salary structure. It's not just about who makes more, but also how it affects the ability of the team to build a strong roster in a cap system.

My point isn't to focus so much on the amount Laine is worth (though I've shared my views about that previously), but more to refocus attention on the issue of contract / salary as a central part of the issue with Laine.

You forgot the situation during contract negotiations after Laine's worst season. And the season was bad in two ways: Laine was seriously sandbagged during first half and then for multiple reasons of his own played a bad second half in terms of scoring.

That's like the worst possible moment to sign a contract for both sides, and yet they had to do that. I don't think Chevy was offering Laine more than 8M. Cap space was also very tight because they signed aging Wheeler, Buff situation was open and Little was not yet on LTIR.

Had Chevy signed Laine with 9.25M x 6 he would have been eaten alive by fans that at time were claiming KC is better than Laine. Heck, I guess Chevy tried to lowball Laine with KC contract.

I am quite sure Laine was never offered 9.25M x 6 by Chevy. Also as they publicly stated before negotiations, Laine's usage was part of the contract negotiations and that's the very reason for Laine side to take 2 year contract.

Never ever any reputable person claimed that Laine requires Matthews/Marner money. That has been 100% pure speculation based on literally nothing Laine and his agents have ever said or done. But the usage issue had been brought up at least 3 separate times by Laine and his agents, mostly during and after 18-19.

For example when Laine was briefly on the Rocket race on 18-19, possibly even leading it at some point during his November, his agent told in the interview that it's not going to last as you can't win Rocket from 2nd/3rd line, which is true. (And he did not mean 1b line as some teams with sane coach deploy like Pittsburgh.) Laine started his November campaign being just promoted from the 4th line into Lowry's 3rd line and was able to score his hatrick in Finland just because of PP1 time he still got and an empty netter. AFAIK pretty soon he was promoted back into the 2nd line with KC and Little. A combination that did not really click too well, but still getting some low 2nd line minutes that did open some opportunities for Laine to help his team.

 

[Farmboy Patty]

Agreed. All of the contracts that we have signed to our young core players have been market rate deals at the time of signing. There haven't been any discounts given by the player.

Scheifele signed a similar deal to Barkov, Mackinnon and Monahan. Those were his direct market comps the year he signed. Now 3 of those players are significantly under paid but that is due to the market changing.

Morrissey is inked to deal that pays him in the 30th range of dmen in the league. That is fair value given that he ranks somewhere in that range as a player.

Ehlers deal is comparable to other deals to good wingers like Forsberg.

Helle got a similar contract to a similar caliber goalie at the same age in Holtby and Gibson.

The market has changed lately and expecting Laine to take a discount now is not at all realistic.

Can we please pin this post. The false narrative of Chef and Ehlers taking team friendly contracts, when they in fact were nothing more than what the market dictated at the moment they signed long term. If a player is willing to bet on himself, there is more money to be made with short contracts until you break out for real. As an example, Chef and Ehlers traded those extra millions for job security on a long term deal before they hit their prime. You can't both have the cake and it, except in ultra rare cases.

 

[PhilJets]

Can we please pin this post. The false narrative of Chef and Ehlers taking team friendly contracts, when they in fact were nothing more than what the market dictated at the moment they signed long term. If a player is willing to bet on himself, there is more money to be made with short contracts until you break out for real. As an example, Chef and Ehlers traded those extra millions for job security on a long term deal before they hit their prime. You can't both have the cake and it, except in ultra rare cases.

Correct