Player Discussion: Laine (Mod warning OP)

[KingBogo]

This point is spot on - I find it strange that our elite offensive players are held accountable for our defensive weaknesses.
A decimated D will impact your offensive effectiveness in a bunch of ways and it was obvious while watching games.

We struggled getting puck possession in our own end - especially in the corners or around the net. Were were simply unable to create turnovers or stop a cycle. Teams were aware of this - we founds ourselves trapped on most shifts which translated to a dump into no mans land where the forwards were left to figure it out.

We had very little in the way of a break out game - and I'm referring to well placed passes or Dmen who were capable of carrying the puck if they ever got their hands on it. In most cases, there was nothing left in tank anyway so back to the dump.

Our D also played a soft gap in most situations and handed over the neutral zone most nights. We also made it easy on apposing D's to break out or use the outlet pass to get out of their own end. Our guys were simply not able to apply any pressure on the offensive blue line or join the rush when the opportunity was there. This was likely by design due to not having the skill, speed or size to stand players up on breakouts or zone entries.

Regardless, there has been a constant bombardment of our forwards for being week defensively, poor in their own end, and unable to play a "two way" game. The fact that we won as many games or scored as many goals as we did, is a testament to how good our forwards actually are.

I went looking for forwards that would match up to our top 6 in terms of usage, while also playing in front of a weak defensive group. The best match I could find was McDavid and Drai, who based on possession metrics would also be considered weak defensively. Last season they sat 18th and 19th in CF% on the Oilers and 17th and 20th in xGF%. Not surprising both were top 10 in actual GF%, and top 5 in raw goals for. Offensive players are paid to score goals, and the better the defense they get to play with the better their defensive numbers get. The 3 Jets players that most mimic McDavid and Drai are Scheifele, Laine and Connor. No surprise that these are our 3 best goal scorers.

 

[HHel]

Over the last 3 years.

Regular season, Connor has 103 goals and 196 points. Laine has 102 goals and 183 points.

Playoffs, Connor has 6 goals and 16 points. Laine has 8 goals and 16 points.

You forgot TOI:

Regular season
Connor 4360,52 19,04 avg
Laine 4084,25 17,60 avg

Playoffs
Connor 521,55 19,31 avg
Laine 429,39 17,89 avg

 

[DRW204]

You forgot TOI:

Regular season
Connor 4360,52 19,04 avg
Laine 4084,25 17,60 avg

Playoffs
Connor 521,55 19,31 avg
Laine 429,39 17,89 avg

per 60 stats has connor ahead in points and slightly behind in goals (at all strengths). but also have to consider Connor's PK time probably weighs his efficiency down a bit whereas laine doesn't pk.

 

[HHel]

per 60 stats has connor ahead in points and slightly behind in goals (at all strengths). but also have to consider Connor's PK time probably weighs his efficiency down a bit whereas laine doesn't pk.

Sure, but EN situations balance that quite well.
Connor 12+7
Laine 8+ 3

 

[surixon]

Your hunch would be wrong. The biggest impact is losing both of your 2 top RHD in a single season(Buff & Trouba). Wheeler is rated as the 11th best winger in the NHL by NHL.com going into the season ahead of any other Jets winger. All the Jets forwards had trouble out scoring the competition with AHL level replacements playing defense, but the 1st line did better then most of the team in doing so and actually stayed on the positive side.

I find blaming everything on a weak defense counterproductive and not at all factual. Both Laine and Conner have had poor defensive metrics behind both a period where we had a great defense 16-19 and the garbage defense we had this past year.

Yes improving the defense will help our forwards but a number of our forwards also need to improve and help our defense out a bit as well. Team defense just doesn't fall on our defense, the forwards have a role to play as well and if they are performing it well it takes pressure off the defenders.

Check out the cumulative GAR numbers over the last number of years. Three of our top 6 forwards are pretty far within the red in terms of overall defensive impact during that time. I dont expect our top forwards to be elite defensively but I expect them to be better then replacement level and ideally league average.

Comparing us to a poorly run org in the Oilers isn't really what I'd call a positive. Most Oiler fans aren't at all happy with the defensive play of either McDavid or Draisital this past year saying both cheated constantly for offense.

 

[KingBogo]

I find blaming everything on a weak defense counterproductive and not at all factual. Both Laine and Conner have had poor defensive metrics behind both a period where we had a great defense 16-19 and the garbage defense we had this past year.

Yes improving the defense will help our forwards but a number of our forwards also need to improve and help our defense out a bit as well. Team defense just doesn't fall on our defense, the forwards have a role to play as well and if they are performing it well it takes pressure off the defenders.

Check out the cumulative GAR numbers over the last number of years. Three of our top 6 forwards are pretty far within the red in terms of overall defensive impact during that time. I dont expect our top forwards to be elite defensively but I expect them to be better then replacement level and ideally league average.

Comparing us to a poorly run org in the Oilers isn't really what I'd call a positive. Most Oiler fans aren't at all happy with the defensive play of either McDavid or Draisital this past year saying both cheated constantly for offense.

Why don't we start with the defense and see how things go. Back in 2017-18 we saw much better underlying numbers across the board among our forwards. Seeing last season how much it benefited our top line who went on a tear after the started playing more with Morrissey and DeMelo as a pair. Our top 6 will never be defensive stalwarts, even Ehlers who is good pushing possession with his speed is not necessarily good in his own. We've hitched our horse to an elite top 6 scoring team. That's who these players were when we drafted them. What we need to do now IMO is give them the defensive support for them to play that way.

 

[surixon]

Why don't we start with the defense and see how things go. Back in 2017-18 we saw much better underlying numbers across the board among our forwards. Seeing last season how much it benefited our top line who went on a tear after the started playing more with Morrissey and DeMelo as a pair. Our top 6 will never be defensive stalwarts, even Ehlers who is good pushing possession with his speed is not necessarily good in his own. We've hitched our horse to an elite top 6 scoring team. That's who these players were when we drafted them. What we need to do now IMO is give them the defensive support for them to play that way.

Sure give them better defensive support but that isn't mutually exclusive from teaching them good defensive play. Doing both will lead to superior results then just addressing one issue.

 

[Imcanadianeh]

You forgot TOI:

Regular season
Connor 4360,52 19,04 avg
Laine 4084,25 17,60 avg

Playoffs
Connor 521,55 19,31 avg
Laine 429,39 17,89 avg

Ok let’s look at 5v5 stats/60

Regular season
Connor - 1.05 goals/60, 2.08 points/60
Laine - 0.97 goals/60 , 1.81 points/60

Playoffs
Connor - 0.55 goals/60, 1.52 points/60
Laine - 0.54 goals/60, 1.25 points/60

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Your hunch would be wrong. The biggest impact is losing both of your 2 top RHD in a single season(Buff & Trouba). Wheeler is rated as the 11th best winger in the NHL by NHL.com going into the season ahead of any other Jets winger. All the Jets forwards had trouble out scoring the competition with AHL level replacements playing defense, but the 1st line did better then most of the team in doing so and actually stayed on the positive side.

NHL rankings are absolute trash. Ehlers, the best winger in Jets, not being in top 20 proves that. what they rank is points and name value. Wheeler's GAR has been on a steady decline for 3 years now, he is 3rd or 4th best winger in Jets at this point.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Ultimate factor between kc and Laine is one wants to be here at a reasonable cap hit.

 

[LowLefty]

Sure give them better defensive support but that isn't mutually exclusive from teaching them good defensive play. Doing both will lead to superior results then just addressing one issue.

The point is, start with the major issues and work out the rest of the kinks when the big issues are addressed.
What appears to be no defensive progress with certain forwards, might simply be that they are not playing under decent conditions due to changes in the roster. Our D has been horrid lately - I'm not sure that is the best time to evaluate our forwards defensive game.
We're using stats to confirm a player is good or bad in certain parts of the game when underlying major factors are impacting our ability to make these assumptions. The only assumption I would take away from poor defensive metrics at this point, is that our Blue line is bad - and we know that already.

Fix the D first and then begin measuring our forwards under conditions that will allow for a fair evaluation. At this point, these players have 2 or 3 years more experience as players - maybe they are better defensively than they were but we won't know until we've leveled the playing field.

Of course we want our players to be their best at both ends - but hold off on determining how much work they may need until we've fixed the issue that is having a major impact on their ability to play a complete game.

 

[Adam da bomb]

The point is, start with the major issues and work out the rest of the kinks when the big issues are addressed.
What appears to be no defensive progress with certain forwards, might simply be that they are not playing under decent conditions due to changes in the roster. Or D has been horrid lately - I'm not sure that is the best time, under the right conditions, to evaluate our forwards defensive game.
We're using stats to confirm a player is good or bad in certain parts of the game when underlying major factors are impacting our ability to make these assumptions. The only assumption I would take away from poor defensive metrics at this point, is that our Blue line is bad - and we know that already.

Fix the D first and then begin measuring our forwards under conditions that will allow for a fair evaluation. At this point, these players have 2 or 3 years more experience as players - maybe they are better defensively than they were but we won't know until we've leveled the playing field.

Of course we want our players to be their best at both ends - but hold off on determining how much work they may need until we've fixed the issue that is having a major impact on their ability to play a complete game.

You can’t give Laine 11bmil and then have as much money for a good D to make up for his shortcomings.
Kfc has lots of shortcomings but with only 7 mil on table that leaves you room to improve your D and get playdrivers play makers.
Laine at 10 leaves less to get complimentary players to full shortcomings.

 

[LowLefty]

You can’t give Laine 11bmil and then have as much money for a good D to make up for his shortcomings.

You need a good D regardless of player shortcomings - if you're referring to the $'s we've allocated to wingers vs D men, I agree and that point has been well covered.
I'm not suggesting we need to prop up players - I'm suggesting we need to fix the major issue on the team.
We're working on that now and I look forward to seeing how much our over all d metrics improve as we progress with our D rebuild.

 

[KingBogo]

You can’t give Laine 11bmil and then have as much money for a good D to make up for his shortcomings.

I've argued this before. We already have too much money invested in scoring wingers. Laine getting somewhere in and around $10 M would put us well over $30 M for our top 4 wingers. This would be close to 40% of our available cap space. I don't think any team has ever built a champion by over investing in wingers to such a great extent.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I've argued this before. We already have too much money invested in scoring wingers. Laine getting somewhere in and around $10 M would put us well over $30 M for our top 4 wingers. This would be close to 40% of our available cap space. I don't think any team has ever built a champion by over investing in wingers to such a great extent.

I mean you theoretically could if they were all playdrivers like Ehlers who are good at D. It saves you money so you can cheap out at centre like how Pittsburgh’s centres let them be cheap on the wings.

 

[Eyeseeing]

I've argued this before. We already have too much money invested in scoring wingers. Laine getting somewhere in and around $10 M would put us well over $30 M for our top 4 wingers. This would be close to 40% of our available cap space. I don't think any team has ever built a champion by over investing in wingers to such a great extent.

Toronto is , they are creating a dynasty

 

[Adam da bomb]

Toronto is , they are creating a dynasty

Is Toronto? They have Marner and nylander. Tavares and Mathews are centres. Is it just forwards as a whole not just wingers?

 

[KingBogo]

I mean you theoretically could if they were all playdrivers like Ehlers who are good at D. It saves you money so you can cheap out at centre like how Pittsburgh’s centres let them be cheap on the wings.

Ehlers is just 1 piece of the puzzle. While he is the best possession driver among our wingers he is the 3rd best natural scorer among our wingers. If you could combine the best qualities of Ehlers, Connor and Laine you'd have a first ballot hall of famer and a winger that ranked above Panarin.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Ehlers is just 1 piece of the puzzle. While he is the best possession driver among our wingers he is the 3rd best natural scorer among our wingers. If you could combine the best qualities of Ehlers, Connor and Laine you'd have a first ballot hall of famer and a winger that ranked above Panarin.

Yep but it’s also his price tag if we could have 3 all-star forwards at 6 million. We would be set.

 

[KingBogo]

Yep but it’s also his price tag if we could have 3 all-star forwards at 6 million. We would be set.

Agreed. If in some universe we had all 3 signed long term at Ehlers cap hit we would be in great shape financially going forward. Even if we got Laine in the $8 M range we could ride out the rest of Wheeler's contract if Samberg, Heinola and Perfetti could provide the same impact our young stars did on their ELC's.

 

[surixon]

The point is, start with the major issues and work out the rest of the kinks when the big issues are addressed.
What appears to be no defensive progress with certain forwards, might simply be that they are not playing under decent conditions due to changes in the roster. Our D has been horrid lately - I'm not sure that is the best time to evaluate our forwards defensive game.
We're using stats to confirm a player is good or bad in certain parts of the game when underlying major factors are impacting our ability to make these assumptions. The only assumption I would take away from poor defensive metrics at this point, is that our Blue line is bad - and we know that already.

Fix the D first and then begin measuring our forwards under conditions that will allow for a fair evaluation. At this point, these players have 2 or 3 years more experience as players - maybe they are better defensively than they were but we won't know until we've leveled the playing field.

Of course we want our players to be their best at both ends - but hold off on determining how much work they may need until we've fixed the issue that is having a major impact on their ability to play a complete game.

I am not disagreeing with that but you cN still individually asses players and find things to correct.

For instance both Laine and Conner are very poor at managing the puck in their own end and this often leads to them turning it over or chipping it out without control. Sure maybe some of that can be blamed on the defense not getting them the puck in an ideal spot but it is still an area where they both have to take some ownership and improve. Conner should be watching how Ehelers shows patience with the puck in his end and will use his speed and shifting to buy time for himself to make an effective decision.

Also I have seen enough forwards miss their assignments in our end to know that it isn't just a defensive personnel issue. You can have a great dcore but it won't matter if Scheifele etc routinely leave their man uncovered in the slot.

I have to think one of the reasons Lowry was brought in to help Maurice work with the players on our defensive scheme.

 

[Jets 31]

It's funny, i totally agree our forwards can get better at defense but they were drafted because of scoring. Laine, Connor, and Ehlers were picked because of their offensive prowess not defense.

 

[DRW204]

It's funny, i totally agree our forwards can get better at defense but they were drafted because of scoring. Laine, Connor, and Ehlers were picked because of their offensive prowess not defense.

Players just need not be a liability on defense. I think Ehlers showcases that. The other two though not so much.

 

[LowLefty]

Players just need not be a liability on defense. I think Ehlers showcases that. The other two though not so much.

Maybe there less a liability with a decent D - I know we'd be talking about it a lot less under those circumstances.
The topic rarely came up when we had good D - and when we don't, the discussion shifts to how poor our "forwards" are at D.
And it's not just KC and Laine

 

[DRW204]

Maybe there less a liability with a decent D - I know we'd be talking about it a lot less under those circumstances.
The topic rarely came up when we had good D - and when we don't, the discussion shifts to how poor our "forwards" are at D.
And it's not just KC and Laine

It's not just this year when they were poor defensively. They're metrics and stats have been poor every year they've been in the league.