Lafreniere Hat Trick / 5 Point Night, (9 points in last 5 games) heating up?

[WarriorofTime]

The fact you're quoting is a statistic twisted to suit your argument. And you are not going to change your mind. You're not interested in changing it, so you're not open to the idea that the statistic you're quoting is misleading.

Powerplay points per 60 is not twisted or misleading. Do you think every other player on that list plays first unit? Many have had far less PP opportunity than even Lafreniere. I have these same discussions with my own fanbase that think if a player doesn’t get spoonfed PP1 opportunity that they never got a chance when reality shows they get a decent amount league wide. He just doesn’t make the most of his opportunities to date and Ranger fans should just face reality on this one and stop the constant excuses about lack of powerplay time. All evidence shows even with more powerplay time, he’d likely just bring the unit down the way he has to the second unit.

 

[WarriorofTime]

In theory, we could spend hours going over every one of his PP shifts since his career began, and you could see how getting a 12 second "shift" starting in the D zone is actually not representative of a real PP opportunity in terms of what PPP/60 might be understood to meaningfully show.

You could see how, when essentially all PP minutes accrued over a 3 year period are simply those 10-20 second nothings stacked up, the actual Power Play time is significantly less than actual seconds spent on the an advantage.

You might be led to notice how Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko are a few notches above Lafreniere on the list you attached. You could of course take the stat as fact and assume that all 3 are historically impotent PP producers, linked by cruel circumstance to be on the same PP2 unit.

Or you could ask yourself - is it that all 3 of these guys, whose PP shifts were almost exclusively shared over the period since Lafrenieres career began, are all historically poor PP producers? Or is it actually that they were all put together in the exact same situation over and over again - a token 15 seconds at the end of a 1:45 shift by one of the dominant power plays of the last 5 years, with no plan in place or expectation or trust in scoring ability. Just a token 15 second "PP shift" for the Kid line + Trouba and Barclay Goodrow, or Dryden Hunt, or Sammy Blais.

I watch the games. I watch the shifts. I have the context.

Tell you what, go ahead and clip every second of powerplay time Lafreniere has had in his career and prove definitively that it’s “15 seconds when the puck has exited the zone” for all that time times six opportunities a game. It’s a long video (4.7 hours) so it may take a while. Every piece of data says he plays normal second unit powerplay time. Maybe you genuinely don’t watch any team besides the Rangers and don’t understand this. The second unit is expected to chip in every once in a while. Yes.

 

[JimmyG89]

This is a 100 pt winger in his prime. The takes are only going to get funnier.

His draft comp was Jonathan Huberdeau. I think everyone is beginning to see that, but I think he has a better shot than Huberdeau, so there is room in that area to be a 40G player with PP time. Huberdeau has maxed out at 30G and has done it twice. The playmaking is there too, he's made some really nice set ups and the one to Panarin on the rebound last night really shows his vision and maturity to not rush the play.

I don't know about 100 points, he'll need to get that PP1 time, which he will eventually. He's got 23 points in his last 22. Before that it was 31 in 54, so this is a big change even from October.

One thing that he has learned from being on this line is where to find open space and how to slow the game down. There is a reason they have the most 5v5 goals as a line this season. The first half of the season you could see that this could work, but he's really learned where he needs to go to be effective. Before this season, he never really got a shot with Panarin and it took a while for him to learn how to play with him as a linemate.

The ultimate takeaway for me is that he worked very hard on his skating. He didn't know how to use it effectively at first because he was used to not having time and space to make plays. Now that he can back off the defense and has the confidence to do that, he's holding the puck and making plays.

 

[Machinehead]

The people who were out in force when he was bad are the same people who are out in force moving the goalposts when he's playing well.

"Yeah, he's not the worst draft pick of all time like I said last year, but uhh, he's still not that good!"

It's not worth getting upset about.

@WarriorofTime Is right about the powerplay tho. He's just not that good at it. He's improved on it and appears to be on an upward trend overall, but he's not there yet.

I think it's fair to say that he hasn't gotten the consistent, hard knocks experience of being on a top unit and really getting a chance to play on an NHL powerplay in dense minutes, which has slowed his progression. But it's also fair to say that the unit is really good as is, the team is contending, and he hasn't earned the spot yet.

 

[TGWL]

Tell you what, go ahead and clip every second of powerplay time Lafreniere has had in his career and prove definitively that it’s “15 seconds when the puck has exited the zone” for all that time times six opportunities a game. It’s a long video (4.7 hours) so it may take a while. Every piece of data says he plays normal second unit powerplay time. Maybe you genuinely don’t watch any team besides the Rangers and don’t understand this. The second unit is expected to chip in every once in a while. Yes.

Tell you what, instead of comparing it with the rest of the league, go get me the list of powerplay points that took place during NYR's second unit and breakdown it down over the last 3 years.

Do I think Laf was good on the powerplay previously? No, I don't. Do I think he's a much better player this season and would improve his powerplay production/60 with the top unit? Yes, I do.

 

[noncents]

Tell you what, go ahead and clip every second of powerplay time Lafreniere has had in his career and prove definitively that it’s “15 seconds when the puck has exited the zone” for all that time times six opportunities a game. It’s a long video (4.7 hours) so it may take a while. Every piece of data says he plays normal second unit powerplay time. Maybe you genuinely don’t watch any team besides the Rangers and don’t understand this. The second unit is expected to chip in every once in a while. Yes.

why would anyone go through that amount of work for the sake of someone who has no interest, no ability to change their opinion?

I explained at length why the stat is misleading, and how my explanation is backed in experience. You merely assert to the contrary to support your narrative.

Again - is it likely that Chytil, Kakko, and Lafreniere, who are ranked 314-322-325/349 in PPP/60 respectively, are all individually historically awful at producing on the power play? Or is it more likely that these three, whose PP opportunities have all been almost exclusively in shared minutes, have been put in the same egregiously flawed situation which has inhibited the PPP/60 stat for all three?

 

[noncents]

@WarriorofTime Is right about the powerplay tho. He's just not that good at it. He's improved on it and appears to be on an upward trend overall, but he's not there yet.

I think it's fair to say that he hasn't gotten the consistent, hard knocks experience of being on a top unit and really getting a chance to play on an NHL powerplay in dense minutes, which has slowed his progression. But it's also fair to say that the unit is really good as is, the team is contending, and he hasn't earned the spot yet.

We can agree to disagree that "he's just not that good at it" at least in the sense that WarriorofTime is using it.

The assertion made is that he's a PP liability and will always be, "If he was on the first unit he'd bring that down too." There is nothing about the kids game that tells me he wouldn't flourish on a PP1 unit. Vision, shot, deception, netfront willingness, puck retrieval, and even a burgeoning zone entry skillset.

 

[Rodgerwilco]

Lafreniere is having the loudest quiet season ever. Could have sworn I saw a thread the other day that he tied his skates in the pre-game.

 

[Machinehead]

We can agree to disagree that "he's just not that good at it" at least in the sense that WarriorofTime is using it.

The assertion made is that he's a PP liability and will always be, "If he was on the first unit he'd bring that down too." There is nothing about the kids game that tells me he wouldn't flourish on a PP1 unit. Vision, shot, deception, netfront willingness, puck retrieval, and even a burgeoning zone entry skillset.

I mean, that's fine. You can see the skillset and there's definitely potential there.

At the same time, he's not productive on the powerplay. He's less productive than players in similar situations.

It's the last piece to him truly being an elite offensive player and I hope he gets there. I certainly think he can.

 

[WarriorofTime]

why would anyone go through that amount of work for the sake of someone who has no interest, no ability to change their opinion?

I explained at length why the stat is misleading, and how my explanation is backed in experience. You merely assert to the contrary to support your narrative.

Again - is it likely that Chytil, Kakko, and Lafreniere, who are ranked 314-322-325/349 in PPP/60 respectively, are all individually historically awful at producing on the power play? Or is it more likely that these three, whose PP opportunities have all been almost exclusively in shared minutes, have been put in the same egregiously flawed situation which has inhibited the PPP/60 stat for all three?

I would say as a unit they are bad, and likely all dragging each other down to some extent. Is that an unfair statement? Hardly.

 

[noncents]

I would say as a unit they are bad, and likely all dragging each other down to some extent. Is that an unfair statement? Hardly.

Ah but your point was about his being a historically poor producer. So does the stat you're quoting as fact stand on its own? Or does it require contextualization like what you just said?

 

[noncents]

I mean, that's fine. You can see the skillset and there's definitely potential there.

At the same time, he's not productive on the powerplay. He's less productive than players in similar situations.

It's the last piece to him truly being an elite offensive player and I hope he gets there. I certainly think he can.

I'll take your word for it re: other players in similar situations. I haven't seen other PP2 units get the absolute crumbs of the 2min penalty time and not have a single guy who can enter the zone with possession to set up a PP structure. That's what the Rangers PP2 has been since Laf's career began.

Now I will certainly agree that he has not been great at leading zone entries on PP. turned back at the blue line too many times. That one issue can prevent production.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Ah but your point was about his being a historically poor producer. So does the stat you're quoting as fact stand on its own? Or does it require contextualization like what you just said?

Did I say “historically” I guess that’s hyperbole but he’s bottom 7 percentile so that’s obviously quite bad.

 

[JimmyG89]

Tell you what, go ahead and clip every second of powerplay time Lafreniere has had in his career and prove definitively that it’s “15 seconds when the puck has exited the zone” for all that time times six opportunities a game. It’s a long video (4.7 hours) so it may take a while. Every piece of data says he plays normal second unit powerplay time. Maybe you genuinely don’t watch any team besides the Rangers and don’t understand this. The second unit is expected to chip in every once in a while. Yes.

He's getting 26 seconds per PP opportunity the Rangers have gotten, so there are plenty of times he's gotten the short end of the stick when it comes to PP time. The 15 seconds at the end of a PP when the opponent has cleared the puck is not hyperbole. It's a balancing act because for each one of those 15 second last ditch rush attempts on the PP, there are also the 40 seconds of time where they have it set in the zone.

This hasn't been exclusive to this season or others. Last season he was getting 27 seconds per PP opportunity. While this is happening, the Rangers PP is humming with the 4th best percentage over the last three seasons, so there is no rationale to change the unit.

The reality of the situation is that there was a chance last season where they could have put him on PP1 and went with Trocheck to replace Strome. The logic was one right shot bumper for another. It ended up working. It'll only be a matter of time when he gets that time and there will be a learning curve on that too.

Would teams love it to have a strong PP2? I think most would, but the priority is solving PP1 if a team is struggling on it. The Rangers haven't had that since Panarin has been around, so changing the unit isn't at the top of the list of things to work on.

 

[Fitzy]

I do think that some players need to figure out their game at even strength before they start to hone their talents on the power play.

Not saying that's inevitably going to happen with Laf. But my guess would be in the same way that he has grown from a full season playing with Panarin at even strength, were he on NYR's top power play, he'd be improving in that capacity as well.

Yes, PP2s are supposed to chip in. But they're not built for style. They're usually a leftover casserole of the remaining forwards and defensemen on the roster with some offensive acumen not hand selected for the top unit, thrown together with some ex-post facto rationalizations of who should play where and do what. They're usually quite without style or system.

 

[noncents]

Did I say “historically” I guess that’s hyperbole but he’s bottom 7 percentile so that’s obviously quite bad.

Do you care to respond to the question or merely backpedal your previous statements more?

 

[WarriorofTime]

Do you care to respond to the question or merely backpedal your previous statements more?

Your question is that it requires contextualization? The context is that Lafreniere and the Rangers second unit is quite bad, yes. For how good their first unit is, their overall powerplay numbers should be better. They should probably be first, not fourth, but their second unit brings them down.

 

[Rsswmu]

He's still a bust. Putting up a career best 0.71 PPG in your 4th year, as a former #1 pick, means you're a bust. Doesn't mean you're a bad player though.

Not saying Laf will ever be as good as McKinnon (he likely will not). But McKinnon put up 0.64 in his 4th season playing 2 more minutes a game and substantially more pp time. I doubt you consider him a bust.

Maybe we should give players until they are at least 24 or 25 to determine if they are a bust or not.

 

[noncents]

Your question is that it requires contextualization? The context is that Lafreniere and the Rangers second unit is quite bad, yes. For how good their first unit is, their overall powerplay numbers should be better. They should probably be first, not fourth, but their second unit brings them down.

The stat you present as 'fact' has been contextualized to the detriment of your argument. To not alter your position is simply unwillingness. Not my issue.

 

[ecemleafs]

Notable "60 point superstar" Vincent Trocheck? McDavid would be pushed down to PP2 if the Troch was on the Oilers.

trocheck plays center and in the bumper on that unit and is one of the best in the league at faceoffs. hes also got 75 points this year.

So LAF is not a good enough PP player to make up for a few lost faceoffs?

well losing a faceoff on the PP is probably killing 20-30 seconds of PP time if the puck is iced, so yeah winning that faceoff is pretty important.

 

[Czechboy]

Lafreniere is having the loudest quiet season ever. Could have sworn I saw a thread the other day that he tied his skates in the pre-game.

He tied the left one like a generational player. Unfortunately, the right one was tied more like a tweener.

 

[WarriorofTime]

The stat you present as 'fact' has been contextualized to the detriment of your argument. To not alter your position is simply unwillingness. Not my issue.

"I'm right because I said so" is not super compelling, sorry about that!

 

[noncents]

"I'm right because I said so" is not super compelling, sorry about that!

Apparently, in your case, neither is logical analysis or the viewpoint of someone who has greater familiarity with the data.

To recap - you assert Lafreniere is bad at the power play because of a PPP/60 statistic. Multiple rangers fans explain the context behind that statistic which leads it to be misleading. You acknowledge that your original point was hyperbolic but ignore the counter arguments, and clearly stick to your narrative. Fin.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Apparently, in your case, neither is logical analysis or the viewpoint of someone who has greater familiarity with the data.

To recap - you assert Lafreniere is bad at the power play because of a PPP/60 statistic. Multiple rangers fans explain the context behind that statistic which leads it to be misleading. You acknowledge that your original point was hyperbolic but ignore the counter arguments, and clearly stick to your narrative. Fin.

You've never proven or "contextualized" that Lafreniere is not a bad powerplay player. Saying "I watch the games" in a heavily-not empirical based argument (cool, you're also biased and vested which is far more likely to cloud your judgment than... empirical evidence) ain't gonna get it done.

 

[Tawnos]

This season, Lafrenière is 23rd out of 73 in p/60 among forwards who average between 0.5 and 1.5 minutes of PP time per game (min 30 TOI). 3.61 p/60.

In the 3 seasons prior combined, Lafrenière was 112th out of 132 on the same metric. 1.31 p/60.

So he's literally doubled his rate of PP production and increased his standing quite a lot. He's still not producing at an especially high level, but that part of his game has improved too. The other factors the other Rangers fans are mentioning here, quality of teammates and quality of PP opportunities provide a lot of context for what we've seen. I don't think it explains it ALL away, but it's enough to say that he's being held back by being on PP2.