So if I buy two tickets; I will win the loterry. Since I bought one ticket; I will not win the lottery.
You can't make predictions on what is going to happen.
The facts are that Palat launched and left his feet, his elbow made direct contact to the head, and he boarded Glendening's head into the glass. I don't think either should be suspended, but Palat's hit is more servere. He launched from his feet, where Kronwall barely left the ground until he made contact.
You're comparing games of chance to actual laws of motion and physics. If two cars are traveling at one another and neither adjusts the course, they will collide head on.
If one car swerves left or right at the last second, they're still going to make contact, just not at the same point that they would have if they didn't adjust their course.
I know your point is that you can't predict where the contact would have happened were Glendening to not hit the brakes, but there's no way Palat still makes contact with the head if he doesn't pull up like he did.
This discussion happens probably 20 times during the season. I remember vividly this same discussion taking place with Kucherov on his supposed boarding of a Jets player (name escapes me) that turned his back to the contact at the last minute. Half the folks (generally the fans of the player being questioned as the hitter) will feel the hit was fine and the other half (generally fans of the player that was hit) will cry for blood. Which generally boils down to it was borderline and probably deserved a penalty.
There is overwhelming favorable response to the suspension of Kronwall. Not just from Lightning fans, from several sources, including several media outlets. There is no such response (or really, even discussion) outside of this message board that isn't being generated by Wings fans.
