Confirmed with Link: Kris Russell Signs 1-Year $3.1M Contract

[TheNumber4]

I can't beleive there are people negative about Russell's play this year. I heard all the stats arguments against him before we signed him. The Russell signing has proven to me at least that Evaluating a player based on his Corsi without actuall watching him is futile. Just think, if Russell was playing with corsi monster McDavid most of the time he would have a great corsi. Doesn't help that he's mainly playing behind a Pouliot-RNH line combo that hasn't been able to get any o-zone time sustained all season. But that's why you don't use corsi to individually rate a player.

Russell I would argue has been the most mistake free Defencemen we've had this whole season. And he brings a calming influence to the whole team when he's on the ice. Flames fans loved Russell when they had him, and they were bang on about him. I like him better than Sekera, and I like him better than petry when he was here. Come to think of it, I can't think of a 2nd pair Defencemen that the Oilers have had in the last 10 years that's better than Russell.

 

[CaptainSexyPants]

I can't beleive there are people negative about Russell's play this year. I heard all the stats arguments against him before we signed him. The Russell signing has proven to me at least that Evaluating a player based on his Corsi without actuall watching him is futile. Just think, if Russell was playing with corsi monster McDavid most of the time he would have a great corsi. Doesn't help that he's mainly playing behind a Pouliot-RNH line combo that hasn't been able to get any o-zone time sustained all season. But that's why you don't use corsi to individually rate a player.

Russell I would argue has been the most mistake free Defencemen we've had this whole season. And he brings a calming influence to the whole team when he's on the ice. Flames fans loved Russell when they had him, and they were bang on about him. I like him better than Sekera, and I like him better than petry when he was here. Come to think of it, I can't think of a 2nd pair Defencemen that the Oilers have had in the last 10 years that's better than Russell.

Totally agree.
Might not be a popular sentiment based on his current salary & how underrated he is, but I'd be fine paying him 5.5 mil long term; he's a very good #3 and that's what they're worth.

Honestly don't think it's a coincidence that we went 2-5 without him. He's an extremely important member of this team.

 

[La Bamba]

Russell by my eye has been one of our best if not best D man this season IMO

He's playing like a 5.5M d man and advance statistic fetish worshippers can suck it

 

[Vanqu1sh]

Totally agree.
Might not be a popular sentiment based on his current salary & how underrated he is, but I'd be fine paying him 5.5 mil long term; he's a very good #3 and that's what they're worth.

Honestly don't think it's a coincidence that we went 2-5 without him. He's an extremely important member of this team.

I've been a big supporter of Russell, but I think you're stretching it a little. I'm not sure he can properly anchor a second pair over the course of an entire season as you're suggesting. Sekera is a legit partner for him. Sekera is overpaid at 5.5, if we have Russell at 5.5, our cap isn't being used very efficiently. I'd like something like 4x4 but that's probably a bit of a dream. If he's too expensive I'd rather spend the money on a different top4 dman with more offence or something.

Russell has really highlighted the ignorance of the analytics community though. Discount actual results and a lot of significant traditional stats for random "advanced" stats that happen to be poor. He's got strong advanced stats in some areas even. No one is saying he's a perfect player I don't think, haha. The stupidity is annoying, I love following hockey on twitter but the discussion is somewhat ruined by all these analytic gurus that don't know jack about hockey.

 

[McDNicks17]

He's been awesome. Reggie is noticeably better with him on his pair.


Do we have to slag advanced stats though? The only people saying he was going to be terrible are people who were using them incorrectly. Would you tell me cars are stupid if I tried to drive one across Lake Huron?

 

[Vanqu1sh]

He's been awesome. Reggie is noticeably better with him on his pair.


Do we have to slag advanced stats though? The only people saying he was going to be terrible are people who were using them incorrectly. Would you tell me cars are stupid if I tried to drive one across Lake Huron?

You're right that there's nothing wrong with analytics in isolation. It's the legion of people who have taken to analytics and are completely closed-minded to any opposition of their precious stats. If people actually understood statistics properly they would realize how dumb some of the arguments they make using stats are.

 

[Raoul Duke]

You're right that there's nothing wrong with analytics in isolation. It's the legion of people who have taken to analytics and are completely closed-minded to any opposition of their precious stats. If people actually understood statistics properly they would realize how dumb some of the arguments they make using stats are.

I don't think there's that many posters that are as closed minded about analytics as you're describing. I'm sure it seems pretty condescending when people tell them to get off the computer and watch the game. As if anyone here doesn't watch the games.

I think people are just suggesting patience. No need to sign him immediately. By eye or by stats, it's prudent to wait, for many reasons.

 

[Vanqu1sh]

I don't think there's that many posters that are as closed minded about analytics as you're describing. I'm sure it seems pretty condescending when people tell them to get off the computer and watch the game. As if anyone here doesn't watch the games.

I think people are just suggesting patience. No need to sign him immediately. By eye or by stats, it's prudent to wait, for many reasons.

nah not on here. HF for the most part is way more in tune with what's going on. Twitter is cancer for that kinda stuff.

 

[CaptainSexyPants]

I've been a big supporter of Russell, but I think you're stretching it a little. I'm not sure he can properly anchor a second pair over the course of an entire season as you're suggesting. Sekera is a legit partner for him. Sekera is overpaid at 5.5, if we have Russell at 5.5, our cap isn't being used very efficiently. I'd like something like 4x4 but that's probably a bit of a dream.

Don't get me wrong, I think we can get him at more like 4.5, and I'd be a little choked if it took 5.5 considering we could have had him at substantially less. But I'd also pay it. Honestly think he's too important to try and hard line, and good (UFA) 2nd pair guys are signing around that 5 mil mark. If Jeff Petry is worth 5.5 and Montreal fans are cool with it, I sure as **** am for Russell.

For the first time in I don't know how long (2006?) we have a D that actually looks really good. 2x #2's and 2x #3's and everyone playing roughly where they belong and our bottom pair guys aren't playing 20 minutes a game.

If he's too expensive I'd rather spend the money on a different top4 dman with more offence or something.

I've heard this a lot and it's dangerous thinking, IMO. Prior to right now, in the past decade how many legit top 4 guys have we had? Historically, it isn't something we've had any luck with. To let Russell walk over hundreds of thousands with the expectation that someone better will come along, is complete madness, in my mind.

 

[TameYew]

I really want Russell extended. But the expansion draft is in June. If he is signed before June, then he would be exposed and we could lose him. There is probably motivation on both sides to wait until July 1 to announce the extension. It may cost more to do it, but it would be better for both sides for that to happen.

 

[MinimaMoralia]

It seems like just yesterday Nikitin, Ferene and Schultz were kicking around, stinking up the top four. And for criminal amounts of unearned cash, too.
I can't express just how satisfying it is to see a player of Russell's ilk on the Oilers blueline. Stable, versatile, calm, professional, physical, engaged, smart, competitive. All for 3.1 million.
Give him a raise, keep him around for a while, I say, let him and Sekera hold down the second pairing for the next few years until the Oilers see what they have in Paigin, Nemo, Jones and Bear.

 

[thalegion]

He's been ok, should be 3rd pair, was great against Chicago and decent against Colorado though.

Getting real sick of him giving up possession so regularly, if he got rid of that wart I'd call him a legit top 4.

 

[Draiskull]

He's been ok, should be 3rd pair, was great against Chicago and decent against Colorado though.

Getting real sick of him giving up possession so regularly, if he got rid of that wart I'd call him a legit top 4.

Leads the team in +/- with +8
Leads the team in blocked shots despite missing big chunk of games..
Averages over 20mins a night
Leads the defense in SH TOI\game with 2:24
Has been a minus player in just one game this season (vs TOR)

Sekera when not paired with Russell has looked like a bottom pairing Dman and even played bottom pairing minutes.

but yeh... Russell should be 3rd pair !

 

[CaptainSexyPants]

I really want Russell extended. But the expansion draft is in June. If he is signed before June, then he would be exposed and we could lose him. There is probably motivation on both sides to wait until July 1 to announce the extension. It may cost more to do it, but it would be better for both sides for that to happen.

By not signing him we give Vegas the right to negotiate with him early. So, potentially, we could lose both Russell and Davidson (or Maroon, Poo, Kass, whoever).

I'd sign Russell and protect 8+1.
Nuge
Drai
Eberle
Lucic
Larsson
Klefbom
Sekera
Russell
Talbot

Presumably, they take one of Davidson, Pouliot, Maroon, Kassian or Pitlick.

I don't see a huge benefit to 10+1. Might be different if there were 2+ expansion teams picking, but we can only lose one guy. If we lose Maroon vs. Pouliot at the cost of Russell, for example; big deal. I like Maroon, but Russell means way, way more to this team.

I think there's a real good chance they take Davidson or Pouliot in either case.

 

[Draiskull]

By not signing him we give Vegas the right to negotiate with him early. So, potentially, we could lose both Russell and Davidson (or Maroon, Poo, Kass, whoever).

Pretty sure he remains Oilers property til he becomes a UFA on July 01.
Vegas cant negotiate with him if other teams cant.

Even if they do why would he choose LV over Edmonton?

Besides LV should be able to assemble a decent D group via expansion draft.

 

[CaptainSexyPants]

Pretty sure he remains Oilers property til he becomes a UFA on July 01.
Vegas cant negotiate with him if other teams cant.

Even if they do why would he choose LV over Edmonton?

Besides LV should be able to assemble a decent D group via expansion draft.

Vegas gets to negotiate with all pending UFA's June 17-20 during the draft period.

Using Russell as an example, if he's unsigned and they agree to terms, if things are done on the up-and-up he becomes their pick from Edmonton. But there is nothing stopping Vegas from saying "Hey Kris, we'll give you 5.5x5 on July 1st. Agreed?" and then picking Davidson from us.

As for why Russell would choose Vegas over us...same reason any UFA does. More money or a preferred location. We can wait and it might work out, or we might be repeating the same mistake we made when we probably could have signed him long term for 4. Might be 4.5 or 5 now, and maybe Vegas or someone else gives him 5.5.

 

[Stoneman89]

He's been awesome. Reggie is noticeably better with him on his pair.


Do we have to slag advanced stats though? The only people saying he was going to be terrible are people who were using them incorrectly. Would you tell me cars are stupid if I tried to drive one across Lake Huron?

No one on here that I've seen is slagging advance stats. Only the way that they are used by some people as the be all and end all, or most important thing when judging a player.

 

[CaptainSexyPants]

Besides LV should be able to assemble a decent D group via expansion draft.

It's going to be pretty brutal. TSN mock draft, for what it's worth, has...
Davison-Brodin
Orlov-Petrovic
Sbisa-Klein

They're even worse at forward.

 

[Stoneman89]

Stanley Cup winners have good analytic numbers.
Silly to ignore them.

Not every player needs to be an analytic darling though. Russell was out during the tougher part of the schedule and Talbot's game dropped off a little. PDO fell. Those things have a lot to do with the record with and without Russell.
Sekera was playing with a rookie while Russell was out.

Good timing.

I wouldn't put it all on coincidence though, he's contributing to wins for sure. He's a good veteran D man on a team short of them. A very shrewd signing in an area of weakness for the oil.

I wouldn't dream of resigning him this early, without more games played and I think some of the numbers being thrown around here are way too high.
More importantly, he's filling a spot where a right hand shot power play D should be. The team needs that a great deal more.

I agree with all this, and think it is way to early to get serious about signing him. We can spitball some stuff for fun, but I'd like to where things are at in February, or at the TD. It would be awful nice to get that RD with the big shot, but there are not a lot of them out there, and the really good ones that I would be willing to open the (Katz's) wallet up for, tend to get signed by their own teams or go to another preferred destination. A lot of things can happen between now and then. At this moment, however, I am enjoying what he brings to our team, despite his "awful" advanced stats.

 

[DerpMorg]

That LV team is going to struggle to get to double digits in wins.

Saying that though, now at least two of their Ws will come against us.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

That LV team is going to struggle to get to double digits in wins.

Saying that though, now at least two of their Ws will come against us.

I don't see why this is the case. The Golden Knights are going to have a hard time generating offense, because they likely won't have much offensive depth.

 

[Stoneman89]

He's been ok, should be 3rd pair, was great against Chicago and decent against Colorado though.

Getting real sick of him giving up possession so regularly, if he got rid of that wart I'd call him a legit top 4.

Didn't really see that. Usually makes a crisp sharp pass to one of his own guys. May miss a few obviously, but no more than anyone else to my eye.

 

[McShogun99]

I wouldn't sign Russel long term unless we got rid of Sekera. I'd rather have 3 actual right shots playing the right side. He's been good so far but I doubt he keeps it up all year.

 

[Raoul Duke]

Vegas gets to negotiate with all pending UFA's June 17-20 during the draft period.

Using Russell as an example, if he's unsigned and they agree to terms, if things are done on the up-and-up he becomes their pick from Edmonton. But there is nothing stopping Vegas from saying "Hey Kris, we'll give you 5.5x5 on July 1st. Agreed?" and then picking Davidson from us.

As for why Russell would choose Vegas over us...same reason any UFA does. More money or a preferred location. We can wait and it might work out, or we might be repeating the same mistake we made when we probably could have signed him long term for 4. Might be 4.5 or 5 now, and maybe Vegas or someone else gives him 5.5.

Russell was free to talk to every team in the league for the entire off season and signed with us for 3x1.
He might be getting a little over rated here.
There's absolutely no reason to sign him now and many reasons to wait.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I don't think Russell is being over rated.

His stats over the previous 4 seasons at 5 on 5:

Russell: 2.60 GF/60 teammates: 2.18 GF/60
Russell: 2.51 GA/60 teammates: 2.45 GF/60

That's a pretty large sample size as well... 242 games of even strength play.

This season with the Oilers so far:

Russell: 2.74 GF/60 teammates: 2.75 GF/60
Russell: 1.00 GA/60 teammates: 2.67 GA/60


He's continuing to be a positive factor and outperforms his teammates in terms of GF/GA ratio when he's on the ice.

That could all be a coincidence over the past 4+ years but I think a much better explanation is that he's probably a pretty good dman who actually makes his team better when he's out there on the ice.

That isn't even counting his PP and PK contributions where he's been solid as well over the past 4 years.

I've just never seen where those advanced stats show him to a be a negative player. Where it actually counts... GF and GA... he's been good.

Like most here, I would also like another RHD who can provide some offense for the PP but re-signing Russell would not be a bad move. He definitely adds stability and makes this D-core better with his inclusion.