Confirmed with Link: Kris Russell Signs 1-Year $3.1M Contract

[Aceboogie]

Are you kidding me? Cam Barker? Seriously?
I must admit - I hate this Corsi s**t. Don't know what the hell all it entails. I'm oldschool so I trust what I've been trusting since I fell in love with the game and started watching around 1970 or so. MY EYES.
I'm absolutely positive advance stats has it place in every sport but like everything else, it does not and cannot tell the whole story.

You sir, if you keep going on the way you are about Russell, prove you are ignorant of the fact as well. Open your eyes. No one every said he was the second coming of Bobby Orr, Larry Robinsons' half son, Denis Potvins' cousin, Borje Salmings' nephew, or Paul Coffey reincarnated. But what he is, is a very good skating defenceman, who can 'think' the game, is calm under pressure, especially in his own zone, is not shy in the corners, and probably adds some leadership to a young, developing team.

If you need stats to tell you that, and can't SEE that when he steps on the ice for THIS group of defenceman, then I don't know what are looking at. And, barring a trade or injury, I'm sure that you will be eating crow at the end of the season if you're true to your word.

Cam Barker was an interesting comparable because people were raving about Oilers record with and without Russell. I have nothing against Russell and I think hes a fine #4 D.

Like I said, lets wait till the end of the season. Oilers just went on a 7-1 run and Russell was picked up right before that happened. Its natural for humans to go: "well we didnt have Russell before and sucked, now we have Russell and we are good, it must be Russell". So I do think him be attributed to any win directly is a bit much. He surely helped but weve won because of progression of team

But yes I will gladly eat crow if people perceptions of him are same after the season. Dont you find it funny that Calgary Flames fans, the ones that watched him for 3 years, didnt share the same glee for him when he was on the team? So forget anything about corsi, that alone should raise a red flag. After a long enough time you start to see faults in a player. A coupel bad unlucky bounces go in with him on the ice and a GWG or 2 given up with him on the ice and the knives will come out as quickly as the roses were brought out for him

 

[McTrashBoat]

Cam Barker was an interesting comparable because people were raving about Oilers record with and without Russell. I have nothing against Russell and I think hes a fine #4 D.

Like I said, lets wait till the end of the season. Oilers just went on a 7-1 run and Russell was picked up right before that happened. Its natural for humans to go: "well we didnt have Russell before and sucked, now we have Russell and we are good, it must be Russell". So I do think him be attributed to any win directly is a bit much. He surely helped but weve won because of progression of team

But yes I will gladly eat crow if people perceptions of him are same after the season. Dont you find it funny that Calgary Flames fans, the ones that watched him for 3 years, didnt share the same glee for him when he was on the team? So forget anything about corsi, that alone should raise a red flag. After a long enough time you start to see faults in a player. A coupel bad unlucky bounces go in with him on the ice and a GWG or 2 given up with him on the ice and the knives will come out as quickly as the roses were brought out for him

Flames fans think a lot of things, most shouldn't be taken too seriously

 

[DipsyMcDoodles]

Flames fans think a lot of things, most shouldn't be taken too seriously

Savage.

 

[SK13]

Flames fans thought the world of him at one point. Just not last year. Do you not remember the "Best D in the league" that included Russell as the 4D?

Russell is kind of a reverse-Petry. Petry played a mostly solid low-event game that saw the Oilers control more with him on the ice than without. He'd just make a soft play or bad pass and get a portion of the fanbase riled up and hating him. Meanwhile, Russell plays a high-event game that sees his team usually lose the possession battle with him on the ice, but makes a big play or two, and that's what a portion of the fanbase remembers when it's over. Not the minutes he chased the puck where Klefbom or Nurse pairings didn't - the big hit at the blue-line or chasing Ovechkin down and preventing a scoring chance on the rush.

I think he's got a ton of heart and an interesting dimension, but plays too much. Don't like him long term over any of the other 5 guys playing for the Oilers, nor do I think he's "terrible" because the advanced stats aren't great. Kind of riding the fence on this one.

 

[Stoneman89]

Flames fans thought the world of him at one point. Just not last year. Do you not remember the "Best D in the league" that included Russell as the 4D?

Russell is kind of a reverse-Petry. Where Petry plays a mostly solid low-event game that sees his team control more when he's on the ice, but makes one or two serious foibles or soft plays that drive fans crazy - Russell plays a high-event game, mostly sees his team lose the possession battle while he's on the ice, but makes two or three big plays a game, and that's what his boosters remember and take out of it.



I think he's got a ton of heart and an interesting dimension, but plays too much. Don't like him long term over any of the other 5 guys playing for the Oilers, but I don't think he's "terrible" because the advanced stats aren't great. Kind of riding the fence on this one.

Gee, and I think the exact opposite. He just plays a stable, solid game(hit on the Chicago guy excepted) with not much that sticks out, but if you really watch closely, you appreciate all the little things that he does. I think he's about as low event as you can get. Not flashy at all. And I'm more than good with that.

Some interesting comments below from Russell and TM for all the statzi's and mathletes that all hated the signing.



“I know if I play good and I know if I play bad,” said Russell, who has no idea what the advanced stats say about him, and frankly doesn’t care. “And if I play bad the coaches are going to tell me how to be better. I worry more about that than what people behind a computer are saying.”

The Oilers did take a cursory look at Russell’s analytics, but decided they weren’t nearly enough to push them off the decision to bring him to Edmonton.

“Eyeballs first, paper second,” said McLellan. “The paper can confirm, or make you look in certain areas for things, but it’s eyeballs first. We were using our eyeballs and we felt he would fit our team really well. And he has to this point.”

 

[SK13]

Gee, and I think the exact opposite. He just plays a stable, solid game(hit on the Chicago guy excepted) with not much that sticks out, but if you really watch closely, you appreciate all the little things that he does. I think he's about as low event as you can get. Not flashy at all. And I'm more than good with that.

I don't think he does anything exceptionally well, besides block shots and play the game with a lot of heart, but there are clearly little things he isn't doing as well as the others.

He's too consistently the worst player on the ice in terms of shot metrics. Multiple teams with multiple d-partners who are sunk in the category with him. Even if you don't like the stats or think there's a good predictive measure to them - they're not lying. Shots are going towards the Oilers nets with more regularity with him on the ice than without. We do not see that with other good NHL defenseman. Whether it's an outlier or we're missing a key bit of intel, something is happening with him out on the ice that doesn't happen with other Oilers defenseman.

 

[CornKicker]

Cam Barker was an interesting comparable because people were raving about Oilers record with and without Russell. I have nothing against Russell and I think hes a fine #4 D.

Like I said, lets wait till the end of the season. Oilers just went on a 7-1 run and Russell was picked up right before that happened. Its natural for humans to go: "well we didnt have Russell before and sucked, now we have Russell and we are good, it must be Russell". So I do think him be attributed to any win directly is a bit much. He surely helped but weve won because of progression of team

But yes I will gladly eat crow if people perceptions of him are same after the season. Dont you find it funny that Calgary Flames fans, the ones that watched him for 3 years, didnt share the same glee for him when he was on the team? So forget anything about corsi, that alone should raise a red flag. After a long enough time you start to see faults in a player. A coupel bad unlucky bounces go in with him on the ice and a GWG or 2 given up with him on the ice and the knives will come out as quickly as the roses were brought out for him

disagree i live in calgary and the majority of my friends are flames fans and most if not all would take russell back, they just didnt want to pay him the $'s he reportedly was asking for in the summer

 

[Stoneman89]

This is a really good read on Russell:

http://www.thelightninglounge.com/2016/11/memo-to-oilers-fans-falling-in-love.html

I think the issue with player evaluation is that is has SO much to do with PDO. You can keep a player on ice play the exact same but he gets one lucky bounce that leads to a goal he scores or assists on and peopel come away from that game thinking much more highly of a guy then if they didnt get that lucky bounce. Its just human nature and our imperfect judgement ability. Similarly if a D gets a lucky bounce in their end in which pucks stays out of net we come away thinking much higher of him than we would if he played exact same but got a unlucky bad bounce

Almsot every main board player thread (what happened to X, Play Y is emerging) can be directly traced to high or low PDO. And then after 20 games their PDO normalizes and peoples perception does a 180 despite the fact that guys play is the exact same, just got more lucky/unlucky bounces he wasnt getting before.

Some examples of this on the Oilers is Kassian when he first came here and was on a line with Hall and LD and people were raving about him as the new 2RW. He was riding super high PDO. Eberle in 2012 was the same.

And I really dislike this whole "Team record is so much better with him". A middle pairing D prety small effect on the game and there is a ton more than just 1 player. We actually had a better record without McDavid last year. And Willis had a really good stat: EDM as of Feb. 1, 2012:
7-3-2 w/ Cam Barker
12-23-3 w/o Cam Barker

To everyone gaga over Russell saying hes been amongst our best D or we should resign him asap. I say give him 20 more games. He has sky high PDO right now and lets see what people think of him when dust settles. Ill gladly eat crow if people still this highly of him at the end of the season

I don't think anyone thought that one player like him was the end all, but a couple things can't be denied or merely written off as coincidence.

- Sekera looks like crap when Russell is not around. He looks competent when he is.

- the teams record sucked without Russell. It was good before and after he came back. There is a stabilizing effect through the defence that helps out the other 2 pairs as well and takes the heat off of them.

 

[Stoneman89]

I don't think he does anything exceptionally well, besides block shots and play the game with a lot of heart, but there are clearly little things he isn't doing as well as the others.

He's too consistently the worst player on the ice in terms of shot metrics. Multiple teams with multiple d-partners who are sunk in the category with him. Even if you don't like the stats or think there's a good predictive measure to them - they're not lying. Shots are going towards the Oilers nets with more regularity with him on the ice than without. We do not see that with other good NHL defenseman. Whether it's an outlier or we're missing a key bit of intel, something is happening with him out on the ice that doesn't happen with other Oilers defenseman.

Exactly my point, about him not doing anything exceptionally well. But he does enough things well for his pairing to do well, and the team to do well. He's not an allstar, and no one here has said that. But he is a solid addition to the team, and has made his partner a better player and the team wins with him in the lineup. That cannot be denied, damm the stats.

Honestly, people need to take a break from their computer, and take a closer look at what's actually happening on the ice.

 

[Stoneman89]

disagree i live in calgary and the majority of my friends are flames fans and most if not all would take russell back, they just didnt want to pay him the $'s he reportedly was asking for in the summer

Bingo. Too many $$$'s already tied up in that defence and long term and there is no way they could afford him. In a non cap, non budget world, he's likely still there.

 

[SK13]

I don't think anyone thought that one player like him was the end all, but a couple things can't be denied or merely written off as coincidence.

- Sekera looks like crap when Russell is not around. He looks competent when he is.

- the teams record sucked without Russell. It was good before and after he came back. There is a stabilizing effect through the defence that helps out the other 2 pairs as well and takes the heat off of them.

Sekera was poor while Russell was injured, but has 80 mostly good games with the Oilers before Russell was ever here and nearly 600 NHL games at top-4 level. Don't see any logic in suggesting Sekera is an invention of Russell. Maybe that has more to do with Benning being a bad fit than Russell being a great one.

The teams record is not necessarily illustrative. The post you quoted mentions that the Oilers were much better with Cam Barker than without, while they were better without Connor McDavid last year than they were with him. Those kinds of patterns don't necessarily make sense. There's more going on than one players influence. If that's true of McDavid, it's definitely true of Kris Russell.

 

[SK13]

Exactly my point, about him not doing anything exceptionally well. But he does enough things well for his pairing to do well, and the team to do well. He's not an allstar, and no one here has said that. But he is a solid addition to the team, and has made his partner a better player and the team wins with him in the lineup. That cannot be denied, damm the stats.

Honestly, people need to take a break from their computer, and take a closer look at what's actually happening on the ice.

The people who dismiss stats maybe need to take their own advice and watch the games more closely. Don't key in on the big hit or blocked shot and try to see how often he's chasing in his own end versus, say, Oscar Klefbom's pairing.

You don't need to read a spreadsheet to tell more pucks are heading at Cam Talbot with Player X on the ice than without. Something is making that happen. It's not coincidence. The sample is too large and this is the third team it's happening with.

 

[Stoneman89]

The people who dismiss stats maybe need to take their own advice and watch the games more closely. Don't key in on the big hit or blocked shot and try to see how often he's chasing in his own end versus, say, Oscar Klefbom's pairing.

You don't need to read a spreadsheet to tell more pucks are heading at Cam Talbot with Player X on the ice than without. Something is making that happen. It's not coincidence. The sample is too large and this is the third team it's happening with.

All I can say is thank god the stats nerds aren't running the team and we have a good GM and coach. Stats are fine as a backup, but as TM said, it's eyeballs first and foremost. You can continue to stay glued to your computer and hang on everything it spits out. In the meantime, I'll continue to watch the games and enjoy them while players like Russell help to make us a better team.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

According to Flames fans JG = McDavid. Take what they think with a grain of salty tears.

I don't really pay attention to fancy stats. I can see where they would be helpful but I also can see where they would cloud vision. Say the other team fires 100 pucks on Talbot with Russell on the ice but they're all seeing eye shots and he stops every one of them.

Does that mean Russell is bad because he's on the ice when there's shots against or good because even though the shots are getting through they're not dangerous?

 

[SK13]

All I can say is thank god the stats nerds aren't running the team and we have a good GM and coach. Stats are fine as a backup, but as TM said, it's eyeballs first and foremost. You can continue to stay glued to your computer and hang on everything it spits out. In the meantime, I'll continue to watch the games and enjoy them while players like Russell help to make us a better team.

See, the problem is you watch "the games", but aren't as intelligent or observant as you think you are and make posts like this one to someone who ALSO watches the games simply because they aren't willing to dismiss something like the third worst relCorsi in the entire NHL out of hand with no thought or discussion.

Stat nerds do run the team, by the way. Peter Chiarelli had a complete rundown on Russell and weighed it into the decision. 1x3M has no risk, which is why it happened in October and not July.

 

[Stoneman89]

See, the problem is you watch "the games", but aren't as intelligent or observant as you think you are and make posts like this one to someone who ALSO watches the games simply because they aren't willing to dismiss something like the third worst relCorsi in the entire NHL out of hand with no thought or discussion.

Stat nerds do run the team, by the way. Peter Chiarelli had a complete rundown on Russell and weighed it into the decision. 1x3M has no risk, which is why it happened in October and not July.

You're wrong on that.

The Oilers did take a cursory look at Russell’s analytics, but decided they weren’t nearly enough to push them off the decision to bring him to Edmonton.

“Eyeballs first, paper second,†said McLellan. “The paper can confirm, or make you look in certain areas for things, but it’s eyeballs first. We were using our eyeballs and we felt he would fit our team really well. And he has to this point.â€

 

[CornKicker]

Bingo. Too many $$$'s already tied up in that defence and long term and there is no way they could afford him. In a non cap, non budget world, he's likely still there.

every single one of them would swap wideman for russell

 

[CornKicker]

All I can say is thank god the stats nerds aren't running the team and we have a good GM and coach. Stats are fine as a backup, but as TM said, it's eyeballs first and foremost. You can continue to stay glued to your computer and hang on everything it spits out. In the meantime, I'll continue to watch the games and enjoy them while players like Russell help to make us a better team.

hockey guys run team - Edmonton 1st in Pacific

Stats nerd runs team - Arizona 7th in pacific

 

[RegDunlop]

See, the problem is you watch "the games", but aren't as intelligent or observant as you think you are and make posts like this one to someone who ALSO watches the games simply because they aren't willing to dismiss something like the third worst relCorsi in the entire NHL out of hand with no thought or discussion.

Stat nerds do run the team, by the way. Peter Chiarelli had a complete rundown on Russell and weighed it into the decision. 1x3M has no risk, which is why it happened in October and not July.

As previously replied to - PC did have a look at KR advanced stats and decided his 'EYES' were a better indicator. Which at the quarter mark seem to be correct. Personally I've always liked Russell. His skating and escape ability are top notch. Didn't think he'd make as much difference on this team as he has - and I doubt all the positive can be attributed to him alone. But there is no denying his impact.

As for the the 'watchers' instead of the analyticals', I'll go with the watchers' everytime, supplemented with the stats after the fact of course.

 

[RegDunlop]

Cam Barker was an interesting comparable because people were raving about Oilers record with and without Russell. I have nothing against Russell and I think hes a fine #4 D.

Like I said, lets wait till the end of the season. Oilers just went on a 7-1 run and Russell was picked up right before that happened. Its natural for humans to go: "well we didnt have Russell before and sucked, now we have Russell and we are good, it must be Russell". So I do think him be attributed to any win directly is a bit much. He surely helped but weve won because of progression of team

But yes I will gladly eat crow if people perceptions of him are same after the season. Dont you find it funny that Calgary Flames fans, the ones that watched him for 3 years, didnt share the same glee for him when he was on the team? So forget anything about corsi, that alone should raise a red flag. After a long enough time you start to see faults in a player. A coupel bad unlucky bounces go in with him on the ice and a GWG or 2 given up with him on the ice and the knives will come out as quickly as the roses were brought out for him

Well... I disagree with the analysis Ace. But not the fact about the knives!
good response though as well. Not a bad thing at all to wait and see for another 20 either. Yes we may be able to save money now - positive, but we would then have another body to protect for LV draft and another contract tied up in a defenceman - negative.

 

[Draiskull]

It was pretty much a Kris for Kris swap with Flames.
Versteeg aside from a 2 goal outing in a loss to STL has been useless and injured.
A lot of woulda coulda shoulda when it comes to Versteeg passing up the Oilers offer and signing down south. He could very well be on McDavid's wing right now.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

See, the problem is you watch "the games", but aren't as intelligent or observant as you think you are and make posts like this one to someone who ALSO watches the games simply because they aren't willing to dismiss something like the third worst relCorsi in the entire NHL out of hand with no thought or discussion.

Stat nerds do run the team, by the way. Peter Chiarelli had a complete rundown on Russell and weighed it into the decision. 1x3M has no risk, which is why it happened in October and not July.

I think the issue I have is when the player, deemed terrible by previous stats, plays well either by situation or just is playing better. And because of that previous stat assessment, everything following has to be an effort to show he's still that terrible player, because the stats "can't be wrong".

It could also be that Kris Russell is a player positively contributing to a winning team, in a good situation. That even supporters (like me) are aware he has flaws to his game, but we accept the positive impact he has. Instead of looking for a reason why "it's all an illusion."

 

[Stoneman89]

I think the issue I have is when the player, deemed terrible by previous stats, plays well either by situation or just is playing better. And because of that previous stat assessment, everything following has to be an effort to show he's still that terrible player, because the stats "can't be wrong".

It could also be that Kris Russell is a player positively contributing to a winning team, in a good situation. That even supporters (like me) are aware he has flaws to his game, but we accept the positive impact he has. Instead of looking for a reason why "it's all an illusion."

Didn't ya hear? Doesn't matter what he does, he is and always will be useless because the fancy stats guys say he is according to their charts and graphs.

 

[Game 8]

See, the problem is you watch "the games", but aren't as intelligent or observant as you think you are and make posts like this one to someone who ALSO watches the games simply because they aren't willing to dismiss something like the third worst relCorsi in the entire NHL out of hand with no thought or discussion.

Stat nerds do run the team, by the way. Peter Chiarelli had a complete rundown on Russell and weighed it into the decision. 1x3M has no risk, which is why it happened in October and not July.

Your missing it bro, time to recalibrate. If you dont belive people here go back through the game threads and pick out a post regarding Russell making a bad play? Or better yet watch tonight and please make note of all of these bad plays you are seeing.

 

[Raoul Duke]

Stanley Cup winners have good analytic numbers.
Silly to ignore them.

Not every player needs to be an analytic darling though. Russell was out during the tougher part of the schedule and Talbot's game dropped off a little. PDO fell. Those things have a lot to do with the record with and without Russell.
Sekera was playing with a rookie while Russell was out.

Good timing.

I wouldn't put it all on coincidence though, he's contributing to wins for sure. He's a good veteran D man on a team short of them. A very shrewd signing in an area of weakness for the oil.

I wouldn't dream of resigning him this early, without more games played and I think some of the numbers being thrown around here are way too high.
More importantly, he's filling a spot where a right hand shot power play D should be. The team needs that a great deal more.