Friedman: Kevin Hayes Linked to Boston & Colorado

[Profet]

Saying Avs fans not wanting to pay a silly price for Hayes is dumb? Neat.

Saying market value is a silly price is the dumb part.

 

[strictlyrandy]

Saying market value is a silly price is the dumb part.

Makar or Kaut is not market value for Hayes. EK couldn't return a prospect of that quality. Hayes certainly won't.

 

[Profet]

Makar or Kaut is not market value for Hayes. EK couldn't return a prospect of that quality. Hayes certainly won't.

That's a false narrative. Ranger fans have been saying this for quite some time... Hayes will return a first rounder and a B prospect. That's market value.

 

[Shootertooter]

That's nice. Really glad you used my tongue in cheek post to white knight and go on a trade deadline rant. Way to internet.

I kind of got the "Every Center traded at the deadline in the last 5 deadlines have brought back a 1st and okay prospect/handful of other picks or a decent prospect" out of that post. It is rather factual actually.

 

[cgf]

The first paragraph I agree which is why I do not see them extending Hayes. The return for him will be used to supplement the 2021 and beyond timeline. Same with any return for Zucc, McQuiad.

Next year Kreider, Fast, Namestnikov are all pending UFAs.

Year after Shattenkrik, Smith, Staal, Lundqvist all pendingUFAs

Not saying all will be moved or will return high end futures but I think that will be parleyed into the next group that plays with and comes up right after the Chytil, Andersson, Howden, Buchnevich, Kravtsov, Miller, etc group. The 2019-2020 draftees, traded for prospects right behind them, so on so forth.

Zbad could be there through all of that and if he is still good could be extended while those guys are all entering/ still in their primes. Hayes would be more expensive and older through all that which differentiate them.

Fair enough and seems the likely end game here, but calad and another NYR fan were debating the merits of each & the "retain Hayes; sell high on Zibby" iteration seemed interesting since the decision basically boiled down to whether the ~1M in salary & year in age that Zibby will have on Hayes and the difference in development playing behind Zibby v Hayes will have on your kids; was more significant than the increased return that Zibby could bring.

...in which context I brought up my hypothetical packages from Colorado when the NYR fan he was talking to questioned whether a team would really pay significantly more for Zibby than Hayes. Hoping to give some plausible specifics to that discussion I suggested COL 1st (#20-31) + B prospect as a hypothetical Hayes-return that would make sense from the Avs and either OTT 1st (#6-10) + A prospect or COL 1st (#20-31) + A prospect + A prospect (or 2020 COL 1st) as hypothetical Zibby-returns.

In light of that conversation & my own feelings about your prospects; I probably do lean towards thinking that the payoff with the Hayes + either of the latter packages would be higher when your young core is getting started than with Zibanejad + the first package...especially since having Hayes as the vet C you lean on should yield higher draft picks before you make the jump...although the uncertainty is certainly higher.

PS I think Kreider will be retained alongside 1 of your scoring line centers to help blood the kids in, so though I agree he could return a lot, I don't think he'll be a chip Gorton ever does cash in.

 

[The don godfather]

Keep Hayes we have JFK now figuring it out. Donny ain't giving Gorton no first round pick.

 

[Meeqs]

That's a false narrative. Ranger fans have been saying this for quite some time... Hayes will return a first rounder and a B prospect. That's market value.

You understand that "Market Value" is completely dependent on the time of year (lets assume the TDL, where prices are highest) and the supply and demand for each year. So for a garbage year like last year where the best players were Stastny, Nash and Tatar then that could possibly be market price as he would be an enticing option for a team that was looking elsewhere or missed out on those players.

However this year when any and all of: Stone, Skinner, Pavelski, Staal, Connolly, Johannson, Donskoi, Duchene, Dzingle, Panarin, Eberle, Nyquist, Lee, Simmonds, Nelson, Silfverberg, Brassard, Ferland etc for forward position alone could be availible at the TDL it will hinder Hayes return massively.

Each TDL there are generally about 7-8 teams on a good year that are buyer (especially when we are talking about moving high end picks for rentals which is happening less and less), and not even all of them will be looking for a Center/forward. So each player who is better than Hayes or similar and cheaper/deal agreed to first will significantly impact his return. A 1st and a prospect is generally one of the bigger returns for the best players and I don't see Hayes as being one of the best players.

My point being if you are going to look at precedent and claim "market price" then you need to properly evaluate the market itself that will be setting that price and I think you are misguided. Now with that said NYR has managed to pull off some big steals in the past (and some not so big steals) so I'm not saying the return isn't possible but that given the circumstances anything over a 2nd and maybe a meh piece is unrealistic.

 

[Patagonia]

Fair enough and seems the likely end game here, but calad and another NYR fan were debating the merits of each & the "retain Hayes; sell high on Zibby" iteration seemed interesting since the decision basically boiled down to whether the ~1M in salary & year in age that Zibby will have on Hayes and the difference in development playing behind Zibby v Hayes will have on your kids; was more significant than the increased return that Zibby could bring.

...in which context I brought up my hypothetical packages from Colorado when the NYR fan he was talking to questioned whether a team would really pay significantly more for Zibby than Hayes. Hoping to give some plausible specifics to that discussion I suggested COL 1st (#20-31) + B prospect as a hypothetical Hayes-return that would make sense from the Avs and either OTT 1st (#6-10) + A prospect or COL 1st (#20-31) + A prospect + A prospect (or 2020 COL 1st) as hypothetical Zibby-returns.

In light of that conversation & my own feelings about your prospects; I probably do lean towards thinking that the payoff with the Hayes + either of the latter packages would be higher when your young core is getting started than with Zibanejad + the first package...especially since having Hayes as the vet C you lean on should yield higher draft picks before you make the jump...although the uncertainty is certainly higher.

PS I think Kreider will be retained alongside 1 of your scoring line centers to help blood the kids in, so though I agree he could return a lot, I don't think he'll be a chip Gorton ever does cash in.

Sakic will not trade for Hayes with anything near your proposal and likely wait until the offseason with so many better UFAs available his value would be even lower. Zibby proposal is beyond idiotic and the AVs will keep the Sens pick and take their chances in finding the 2C in a rich draft.

 

[Bender]

Saying market value is a silly price is the dumb part.

 

[cgf]

Sakic will not trade for Hayes with anything near your proposal and likely wait until the offseason with so many better UFAs available his value would be even lower. Zibby proposal is beyond idiotic and the AVs will keep the Sens pick and take their chances in finding the 2C in a rich draft.

I talked to Joe yesterday & he said you have no reason to pretend that you know anything about what he's got planned and so can drop this definitive tone when delivering your opinions.

PS - I never suggested we should or would do anything but wait until FA with Hayes, merely that that was the value that would make sense from our end if we did trade for him. But I should know better than to expect you to actually read my posts that are being quoted, by now.

 

[cgf]

You understand that "Market Value" is completely dependent on the time of year (lets assume the TDL, where prices are highest) and the supply and demand for each year. So for a garbage year like last year where the best players were Stastny, Nash and Tatar then that could possibly be market price as he would be an enticing option for a team that was looking elsewhere or missed out on those players.

However this year when any and all of: Stone, Skinner, Pavelski, Staal, Connolly, Johannson, Donskoi, Duchene, Dzingle, Panarin, Eberle, Nyquist, Lee, Simmonds, Nelson, Silfverberg, Brassard, Ferland etc for forward position alone could be availible at the TDL it will hinder Hayes return massively.

Each TDL there are generally about 7-8 teams on a good year that are buyer (especially when we are talking about moving high end picks for rentals which is happening less and less), and not even all of them will be looking for a Center/forward. So each player who is better than Hayes or similar and cheaper/deal agreed to first will significantly impact his return. A 1st and a prospect is generally one of the bigger returns for the best players and I don't see Hayes as being one of the best players.

My point being if you are going to look at precedent and claim "market price" then you need to properly evaluate the market itself that will be setting that price and I think you are misguided. Now with that said NYR has managed to pull off some big steals in the past (and some not so big steals) so I'm not saying the return isn't possible but that given the circumstances anything over a 2nd and maybe a meh piece is unrealistic.

I've bolded all of the better Centers that could be available on the rental market...

 

[Meeqs]

I've bolded all of the better Centers that could be available on the rental market...

Its more than just who is and isn't better. Its how good a player if vs the asking price. Even if you think Hayes is better than lets say Nyquist, if Nyquist can be had for a 2nd, then how much better is Hayes than Nyquist, and how much more would a team be willing to pay and still go with Hayes. So even the lesser players limit what Hayes can get.

Also how many teams specifically care about a center over a winger AND be in a position to pay a big return for a rental? Do they need a 2c or just a 3c? Likely only serious contenders are going to be giving up that level of return and how many of that group don't have a 2c, maybe one? How much more are teams willing to pay for Hayes if a winger like Simmonds can be had for a 2nd?

I'd say about there are about 3-5 big returns for a forward in any given TDL and I just don't see Hayes being anywhere close to the best rental available.

 

[TLEH]

Hayes actually looks pretty good when I have seen him this year.

 

[DelZottoHitTheNetJK]

Makar or Kaut is not market value for Hayes. EK couldn't return a prospect of that quality. Hayes certainly won't.

Yeah I don't know that I'd use the EK return as a bar for anything. Ottawa got fleeced

 

[Patagonia]

I talked to Joe yesterday & he said you have no reason to pretend that you know anything about what he's got planned and so can drop this definitive tone when delivering your opinions.

PS - I never suggested we should or would do anything but wait until FA with Hayes, merely that that was the value that would make sense from our end if we did trade for him. But I should know better than to expect you to actually read my posts that are being quoted, by now.

So you make a hypothetical proposal of AVs prospects, yet, don’t mean it?

Not only you make no sense to both NYR and AVs supporters, this is just trolling. You’re straddling a fine line in seeking approval by NYR fans by overpaying, but being called out by AVs fans and claiming this was not the intention or misquoted to pursue as a FA.

Wow!

 

[Son of Donegal]

On any contender, Hayes will be a #3c. So let’s say there are 8 buyers in the market...I truly wonder how many will want to give up a 1st+. Not saying it won’t happen but the market is probably small.

If NY was open to other offers, including a roster player. 2nd rounder and a prospect, they’d get more interest. Odds are they don’t get what they had hoped and they retain him.

 

[Rumplesnipeskin]

Joe will stay away at the prices being mentioned in this thread. Hayes would be a nice addition, but I think patience will keep the Avs from making a move for him any sooner than the TDL, and most likely they don't make a move at all. Doing great in the rebuild, Hayes isn't the piece to put them over the top, so might as well wait.

 

[QJL]

Lot of low-balling on Hayes in this thread. This guy has been dominant this season. He’s going to get a haul.

 

[Cypher]

Yeah I don't know that I'd use the EK return as a bar for anything. Ottawa got fleeced

Yeah I don't know that I'd use the Tatar return of a 1st/2nd/3rd as a bar for anything. Vegas got fleeced.

I'd gander Hayes goes to a playoff team for a 1st (which would late in round), a roster player, and a B prospect. He might go for more, but definitely no where near the value of getting say a Makar in return.

 

[Calad]

Yeah I don't know that I'd use the Tatar return of a 1st/2nd/3rd as a bar for anything. Vegas got fleeced.

I'd gander Hayes goes to a playoff team for a 1st (which would late in round), a roster player, and a B prospect. He might go for more, but definitely no where near the value of getting say a Makar in return.

This is what a large majority of us Rangers fans have been saying he'd likely fetch for weeks, and some people have looked at us like we have 2 heads. Anyone suggesting that Hayes would return Makar or a prospect of his ilk are blind homers or (very successfully) trolling.

 

[Dijock94]

Yeah I don't know that I'd use the Tatar return of a 1st/2nd/3rd as a bar for anything. Vegas got fleeced.

I'd gander Hayes goes to a playoff team for a 1st (which would late in round), a roster player, and a B prospect. He might go for more, but definitely no where near the value of getting say a Makar in return.

This may even be a little more than the Rangers will get.

 

[cgf]

So you make a hypothetical proposal of AVs prospects, yet, don’t mean it?

Not only you make no sense to both NYR and AVs supporters, this is just trolling. You’re straddling a fine line in seeking approval by NYR fans by overpaying, but being called out by AVs fans and claiming this was not the intention or misquoted to pursue as a FA.

Wow!

Yes I suggested a realistical hypothetical package that I wouldn't personally want the team to offer for Hayes because I don't think we should dip into our arsenal for him. Naive of me to assume that people would read more than a sentence on a message board, I know, but I'm an optimist and want to believe that you are capable of comprehending the difference between what someone would be worth and what I’d like our team to pay for him...though you are free to prove me wrong on that count...

And oh, so not being a hideous homer is trolling. Hopefully you non-trolls don't "call me out" again now that I've been made aware. I’ll let the other avs fans who don’t think that the oilers would need to add to McDavid for us to even consider moving the Ottawa pick, that we as a group need to stop trolling

 

[Profet]

Game winning short handed breakaway goal for Hayes tonight.

 

[NORiculous]

Hayes is producing like a boss right now. He looks like he is breaking out. Big guys take a little longer so it’s possible. 20 pts in last 16 games. That is not 3rd line C, like some are saying he is.

Sure sample is small. But still. At this point the question needs to be kept in mind. Will he keep it up; making him a legit topline guy.

 

[Kupo]

Hayes is producing like a boss right now. He looks like he is breaking out. Big guys take a little longer so it’s possible. 20 pts in last 16 games. That is not 3rd line C, like some are saying he is.

Sure sample is small. But still. At this point the question needs to be kept in mind. Will he keep it up; making him a legit topline guy.

2c’s may dominate a game or two here and there throughout a season..

Hayes has been an animal most of the year though. Thoroughly impressed with him. He’s always had terrific reach with his frame, but he’s taking a step beyond the step he took last season.

This isn’t a player who exploded for a year. He’s a player that’s progressed, and is continuing his great play. Offensively and Defensively.

At this point, he may very well be the most desired piece this season, and considering the fact that he can be signed to an extension in about 2 weeks, he’ll like be moved for a great return.