Confirmed with Link: Kessel and a 4th to Arizona for Galchenyuk and PO Joseph

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Shady Machine

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I think JR took what little cap commitment he could get with slight upside.

The point of trading Kessel was the fact he wanted to redistribute cap after signing Jake and the burned relationship.

Also did Chicago want Reasoner?

Did NYR want Namestinkov or Spooner?

I think the idea that Phil was moved for Galchenyuk is faulty. Phil was moved to get out of Phil’s contract and Chucky is what came back.

I value Kessel more than those other examples, but fair enough I suppose. Maybe I had too high of expectations for Galchenyuk, but I recall plenty of people here concerned at the cost to re-sign Chucky after potting 30-30 with Malkin. Now it's "Chucky was just to get out of the contract". Just seems like a convenient switch after the guy blows.
 

Gurglesons

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I don't like that we acquired AG but I am very high on this "$6.8 million dollars of freedom" prospect that I think is going to make it to Pittsburgh by next year.

That’s the biggest deal here. Jake got a 5+ million raise. We needed to move out cap without acquiring anyone especially with the intention of signing a player like Tanev.

Bjugstad, Gudbranson, and JJ would’ve required significant adds and likely cap coming back. Kessel was the player to be moved as Rust can produce ES goals playing up and down the line up just as well as Phil.
 

Gurglesons

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I value Kessel more than those other examples, but fair enough I suppose. Maybe I had too high of expectations for Galchenyuk, but I recall plenty of people here concerned at the cost to re-sign Chucky after potting 30-30 with Malkin. Now it's "Chucky was just to get out of the contract". Just seems like a convenient switch after the guy blows.

I mean, people are crazy if they thought Chucky was a lock for 30-30. I think IMO it was a lock for him to be a 35 ES forward which is what he is somewhat trending for.

Also, you value Kessel more than Rick Nash, Ryan McDonagh Or Dustin Byfuglien?
 

EightyOne

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I don't like that we acquired AG but I am very high on this "$6.8 million dollars of freedom" prospect that I think is going to make it to Pittsburgh by next year.

He says with straight face having forgotten about the 29 cents of cap space the team started the year full of injuries with
 
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Shady Machine

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I mean, people are crazy if they thought Chucky was a lock for 30-30. I think IMO it was a lock for him to be a 35 ES forward which is what he is somewhat trending for.

Also, you value Kessel more than Rick Nash, Ryan McDonagh Or Dustin Byfuglien?

Different circumstances was my point. Whatever though. I should just ignore this thread moving forward lol.
 

Gurglesons

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Different circumstances was my point. Whatever though. I should just ignore this thread moving forward lol.

I don’t think it is that difference. Pens were trying to rebuild on the fly. They got Kahun, Tanev, and POJ as long term pieces for Kessel and Maatta and Galchenyuk with the idea he could step in the top six LW hole this year and save us cap space when we need to sign Murray and whoever else next year.

Chucky hasn’t done it yet. But, I don’t really see the issue with that type of move or idea.
 

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Galchenyuk is a flop so far, but the rest of the team is playing the right style of hockey now, so at least the roster construction seems right in that regard.

Would we be playing this way were Phil still here? Not convinced we would be.
 

billybudd

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Whenever I read a post like this about Kessel, that has lots of validity, I always substitute Geno in, and see if it still holds water. And it largely does. What no Pens fan likes to admit, is that's it's just as emotional to think Geno is still an elite, goal-scoring two-way center in the league who drives play. He's been injury riddled for years, has difficulty even eating healthy in the offseason let alone working out properly, and is now effectively a power play specialist who has lost his shot thanks to JVR and time. I love Phil and Geno both as players and for what they brought to the Pens, but the reality is that the flashes of brilliance from Geno will be fewer and farther between, and he needs a lot of support to achieve those peaks.

And that brings us back to the failure of the Kessel trade. It was getting harder and harder to make Geno + Kessel successful at ES, so dumping the one who wasn't a franchise cornerstone was most likely the right call, but they needed to bring in an actual two-way player who can do some dirty work for Geno. So the opposite of AG. I really expected them to just flip him for futures or in a hockey deal before the season started, but JR got caught admiring his pass and now AG is in a downward spiral in a contract year trying to shoot the puck between his legs and similar nonsense. Jesse just looked at AG's underlying stats in long form, they are also not good. He's dragging everyone down he plays with.

So how can anyone who hated the way Kessel played be ok with how AG is playing and his continued spot on the roster? At the very least Kessel filled a definitive need for us on the PP, AG doesn't even do that.

The Kessel deal was only good for us for if we can, in fact, get rid of AG without taking back a husk or get him to play the right way this year. I'm not sure either is possible. If they trade AG for a Victor Rask who sucks and has term, I'm just going to lose it.

I'm going to get flamed for this, but I agree that Geno looks like he's lost something the last 2 years. Not as much as Kessel, but something. It's not just lineups or usage, his game has lost something to my eyes. People won't want to hear it, but it's what I see. But we've got more history with him, which gives him a lot more slack on the rope than Kessel. The choice to dump his salary is not easily made. Or even possible to make. You just have to work around the player he is now because cap dumping him would be like cutting off a foot because it looks like its getting a bunion.

As far as Galchenyuk, I like to give a player more time than what he's got before really saying anything negative (part of why I wouldn't criticize Aston-Reese last year but will this year), but you might be right. However, worst-case scenario we traded a $20 million problem for a $5 million problem, which is still a win in my book.
 

billybudd

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Except the data does not agree when you take the very obvious variable into account: spending an inordinate amount of time with players who bring down everyone on the team (including the best players of their generation) and the huge sample size of how well the player performs when that variable is removed...in the seasons before, and after, and within the season in question.

That is the rational argument. The irrational argument is treating an elite producer with warts as a scapegoat when his circumstances changed and even the very best the league has to offer (including his generational center linemate) were not capable of overcoming those circumstances.

Uh huh.

Say, Kessel's gone and all of Johnson, Malkin and Schultz have better underlying numbers now. How do you know you don't have causality reversed? That part of their poor even strength numbers wasn't as a result of being made to play with Kessel?

This is a question you never bothered to ask because you started with "Kessel is 'an elite producer' so everything must be the fault of other people" and worked backwards from it. There's nothing rational about thinking this way.

Yes, Kessel is outproducing our best players on the PP while playing for a very offensively challenged team.

Think how absurd it is to frame that as an argument against Kessel's PP prowess.

I mean this is a textbook. Arizona trades for a big money scorer you have some personal attachment to in the hopes he would help them score more, he doesn't help them score more, then you blame Arizona's lack of offense for him not doing his job.
 

kladorf2005

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People have VERY short memories. Kessel had 59 points his first season with the Pens. He only had 43 points through 66 games. He didn't become a point per game player until Malkin got hurt and the HBK line was created a month before that incredible playoff run.

Maybe let's give AG more than 9 games with a new team in a new system before calling him a flop?
 
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vodeni

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I'm going to get flamed for this, but I agree that Geno looks like he's lost something the last 2 years. Not as much as Kessel, but something. It's not just lineups or usage, his game has lost something to my eyes. People won't want to hear it, but it's what I see. But we've got more history with him, which gives him a lot more slack on the rope than Kessel. The choice to dump his salary is not easily made. Or even possible to make. You just have to work around the player he is now because cap dumping him would be like cutting off a foot because it looks like its getting a bunion.

As far as Galchenyuk, I like to give a player more time than what he's got before really saying anything negative (part of why I wouldn't criticize Aston-Reese last year but will this year), but you might be right. However, worst-case scenario we traded a $20 million problem for a $5 million problem, which is still a win in my book.
no you won't. Even the staunchest Geno's fans me included will tell you that he is not Geno of 6-7 years ago. He is not top 2 player in the world, but he is still TOP 20 if not TOP 12 player in the world, he is still point per game player, and when he is flying he is still force, that is pretty darn good for a second line center, now can you get a point per game player for less, not sure
 

Big Friggin Dummy

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The biggest thing I think Geno's been lacking is a predatory, killer instinct when it comes to using his shot. He's rarely a threat to score anymore unless it's on the PP, imo.
 
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BlindWillyMcHurt

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I find the amount of Penguins fans who regularly shit on the guy to be pretty shameful but yeah dude is not anywhere close to where he was even two seasons ago. His shot is basically gone.
 

Big Friggin Dummy

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Which goes back to that shoulder injury he had a few years ago, IMO.

That said, I’ll still rather see Geno here than Piotr Konechevskiy.
Oh, I'm not ripping on Geno or anything. He's still an elite talent when he's on. I just miss the days of him entering the zone, getting to the circle and cutting into the slot to fire off a shot topside against the grain.

I think that's the big thing he's really "lost", so to speak. He's far more prone to take long, looping routes before trying to find an open guy for a one-timer as opposed to trying to score himself on any given shift. Not that it's really bad, per se, but I do feel like he's lost a good amount of threat to score because of his inability or unwillingness to go for the throat and try to fire off a shot.
 

ChaosAgent

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I'm going to get flamed for this, but I agree that Geno looks like he's lost something the last 2 years. Not as much as Kessel, but something. It's not just lineups or usage, his game has lost something to my eyes. People won't want to hear it, but it's what I see. But we've got more history with him, which gives him a lot more slack on the rope than Kessel. The choice to dump his salary is not easily made. Or even possible to make. You just have to work around the player he is now because cap dumping him would be like cutting off a foot because it looks like its getting a bunion.

You're right, but it goes further.

Geno was once a $13-$14M player making $9.5M. Last year he was like a $4-5M player making $9.5M. This is bad. Now he's a $9.5M player making $9.5M. This is fine.

Kessel is maybe worth $2M for his powerplay skillz and is an active hindrance at ES. Like a "ZAR is better, he should be healthy-scratched" hindrance at ES. This is not an exaggeration. He's worth somewhere between $0 and maybe -$1M for even dressing at ES. So he's a...let's call it...$1.5M player making $6.8M. That's atrocious.
 

CascadiaPenguin

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You're right, but it goes further.

Geno was once a $13-$14M player making $9.5M. Last year he was like a $4-5M player making $9.5M. This is bad. Now he's a $9.5M player making $9.5M. This is fine.

Kessel is maybe worth $2M for his powerplay skillz and is an active hindrance at ES. Like a "ZAR is better, he should be healthy-scratched" hindrance at ES. This is not an exaggeration. He's worth somewhere between $0 and maybe -$1M for even dressing at ES. So he's a...let's call it...$1.5M player making $6.8M. That's atrocious.
This CPA appreciates your mad math skillz! ;)
 

Andy99

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Geno hasn’t lost his shot...he just chooses not to use it...I love the speculation in here...the only thing Geno has lost is some foot speed and with it his confidence....when he can’t get around the D men, he doesn’t get into positions to score and he loses confidence in his shot...loss of speed is also directly related to the stick penalties he takes...let’s not just make up **** just make up ****
 

BlindWillyMcHurt

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Geno hasn’t lost his shot...he just chooses not to use it...I love the speculation in here...the only thing Geno has lost is some foot speed and with it his confidence....when he can’t get around the D men, he doesn’t get into positions to score and he loses confidence in his shot...loss of speed is also directly related to the stick penalties he takes...let’s not just make up **** just make up ****

This isn't making stuff up. He's had multiple UBIs in the past and just recently had shoulder issues. Watching him play, it's pretty obvious he doesn't have near the confidence in his shot as he used to. And I love the guy... favorite player in the league.

Accuracy and consistency are way off. Dude used to be able to pick his spots at will. Haven't seen that in a while.
 
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Andy99

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This isn't making stuff up. He's had multiple UBIs in the past and just recently had shoulder issues. Watching him play, it's pretty obvious he doesn't have near the confidence in his shot as he used to. And I love the guy... favorite player in the league.

he lacks confidence in the shot but if you watch it on the PP, there’s nothing in his shoulder that’s preventing his shot...it’s still a hard shot...the lack of confidence is related directly to his skating and his ability to get in positions at ES to score
 
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ChaosAgent

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This CPA appreciates your mad math skillz! ;)

LOL. This is just all spitballing numbers, although WAR calculations as in baseball are coming to the NHL to actually accomplish this. Evolving Hockey has some cool stats that are fun to noodle with: https://evolving-hockey.com/. So it's getting closer.

For the record, Phil was 15th on the Pens in WAR last year and is dead last on AZ this year. My spitballs aren't far off.
 

ChaosAgent

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Geno hasn’t lost his shot...he just chooses not to use it...I love the speculation in here...the only thing Geno has lost is some foot speed and with it his confidence....when he can’t get around the D men, he doesn’t get into positions to score and he loses confidence in his shot...loss of speed is also directly related to the stick penalties he takes...let’s not just make up **** just make up ****

(Knocks on wood) Geno has 0 PIM this year. PROGRESS. He cost us games through his selfish penalties last year...one of the biggest black marks on his season.

...continues knocking on wood.
 
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Andy99

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Alright well I hope you're right. I'll continue to wait.

just watch him...the last year + there are D men who play him tight...he looks like he’s being played much tighter than he was in the past...that’s not really because he is..it’s because the D men have gotten younger/faster and his speed has declined...he rarely gets a good look at the net and on the rare 2 on 1 , he’s usually being covered or it looks like he doesn’t think he can get the shot off quick enough... but you see him get off the shot off fine on the PP where he’s not pressured that directly...it’s really about his skating, not a physical problem with the shoulder...
 
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