Confirmed with Link: Kessel and a 4th to Arizona for Galchenyuk and PO Joseph

[Dipsy Doodle]

Right. You continue to care about Kessel. Not the team he is on.

He was never going to play on line one. He was never going to get the great puck moving support (which even though the d this year is better overall, they still aren't great at it). It would be nice to have better d-men to support the forward group at all times. That...isn't happening here. Priorities are on a decent overall cast because a lot of money is tied up in like five players. So....Kessel is gone.

Actually, that is happening here right now.

 

[molon labe]

What proof? He scored a handful of ES points fewer last year than the year before despite being thrown to the wolves with garbage defensemen behind him...and that decline was less than what his linemate Malkin saw under the same circumstances.

There is a school of thought in stock trading where people let their heart get in the way of their head. Where a company is trending downward and people refuse to believe what they're seeing....

I thought he sucked the year before as well. He just always managed to get points on the board. I'm so sick of talking about this and frankly - sorry to come off this way - I'm not going to bother. ALL Summer for two straight Summers you went HAM on defending Kessel regardless of the stats, facts, schools of thoughts, theories, etc presented to you. Your mind is completely made up and closed to whatever I'd bother to say / research /prove. Frankly it's just a waste of time. Is what it is. You make a point to state that points (regardless of where the come from) outweigh everything else (defensive play, how lines are constructed, how one player affects another - especially when they're force to play together, overall plus minus, salary cap, etc) - and so there's nothing that anyone in here can prove or say that will change your mind.

 

[Gurglesons]

This team's underlying numbers are better because it's playing some young blood at forward and the defense has been healthier and seen the emergence of Marino, so Sully didn't feel compelled to put JJ in a top 4 role.

Put Kessel in Galchenyuk's role and the team's better than it's been. The PP's not a complete abomination, and we have an elite scorer who can stay in the line-up.

Kessel is in Galchenyuk’s role in Arizona is even worse than he was here. And that team is rolling teams. Arizona’s powerplay is also pretty mediocre.

Kahun, Rust, McCann would not be getting the usage they are now if we had Kessel. Rust is proving as I predicted he could easily replace ES Kessel if given the time in the top six in his natural position.

 

[SEALBound]

This team's underlying numbers are better because it's playing some young blood at forward and the defense has been healthier and seen the emergence of Marino, so Sully didn't feel compelled to put JJ in a top 4 role.

Put Kessel in Galchenyuk's role and the team's better than it's been. The PP's not a complete abomination, and we have an elite scorer who can stay in the line-up.

PP yes, probably. ES, I would not be inclined to agree. I think Kessel is done being an ES impact.

 

[billybudd]

Shot totals/attempts are proxies (and not very good ones...the pro clubs now use biometrics and/or unknown criteria hand-counted via manual video review conducted in-house or at a consulting firm) for territorial results, which can be one indicator (among many) of how a player's playing, since shot-based metrics show a correlation--not a causation, a correlation--to success on the ice. They are not an end in themselves. The purpose of hockey is not to slightly outshoot the other team, but to win the game. So and so's fenwick% being 3 points above sea level does not mean he's having a good season.

In Kessel's case, he's a $7 million player with 1 goal at even strength (good for 10th on his team) and 3 assists (good for 7th) at the quarter season mark. He is not bringing value equal to the share of salary cap allocated to him (or even coming close, really) which is why Coyote fans are displeased with him. That his line shoots a few more times than the opposition while starting almost entirely in the offensive zone is not something to brag about, considering a) that's the expected result for any player and b) the outcomes that occur when Kessel is on the ice are otherwise poor.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

There is a school of thought in stock trading where people let their heart get in the way of their head. Where a company is trending downward and people refuse to believe what they're seeing....

I thought he sucked the year before as well. He just always managed to get points on the board. I'm so sick of talking about this and frankly - sorry to come off this way - I'm not going to bother. ALL Summer for two straight Summers you went HAM on defending Kessel regardless of the stats, facts, schools of thoughts, theories, etc presented to you. Your mind is completely made up and closed to whatever I'd bother to say / research /prove. Frankly it's just a waste of time. Is what it is. You make a point to state that points (regardless of where the come from) outweigh everything else (defensive play, how lines are constructed, how one player affects another - especially when they're force to play together, overall plus minus, salary cap, etc) - and so there's nothing that anyone in here can prove or say that will change your mind.

If you're sick of talking about it, a thread dedicated to the topic is a funny place to end up.

It's also interesting to see someone suggest that I'm the one ignoring the stats when the stats validate my side of the argument and all I'm seeing come up against it are ad hominems.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

The thing I miss about Kessel is the fact he is always in the lineup (and on THIS injury-riddled roster, that is way more important than anybody in the organization believed), and he basically ran our power play (which is completely horrible without him). What I do not miss is Mike Sullivan's hate for him and how that was simply not going to end well, regardless.

The problem with the trade is Galchenyuk is simply the latest in the long line of players Sullivan does not trust, will never trust and JR will ultimately be forced to trade away (or simply let go, which would be bad from an asset management standpoint).

Even BEFORE Crosby went out for six weeks, we needed a Kessel replacement (right-shot winger who can score and help the power play, and serve as our third-best offensive creator).

This injury just makes the situation more pressing.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Kessel is in Galchenyuk’s role in Arizona is even worse than he was here. And that team is rolling teams. Arizona’s powerplay is also pretty mediocre.

Kahun, Rust, McCann would not be getting the usage they are now if we had Kessel. Rust is proving as I predicted he could easily replace ES Kessel if given the time in the top six in his natural position.

Arizona improved on the PP and we declined considerably. Contrary to popular opinion at the time, Galchenyuk has not come close to matching Kessel's impact here at ES or on the PP, and none of our PP options have adequately replaced Kessel's presence in transition or on the left boards.

There's zero reason why Kahun, McCann or Rust couldn't be used exactly the same way this year if Kessel were here. It's literally as simple as using Kessel like we use Galchenyuk at ES. And as much as I like Rust, remember that he's on one of his patented hot streaks and he has about as much chance of replacing Kessel's ES production as Galchenyuk did/does.

Shot totals/attempts are proxies (and not very good ones...the pro clubs now use biometrics and/or unknown criteria hand-counted via manual video review conducted in-house or at a consulting firm) for territorial results, which can be one indicator (among many) of how a player's playing, since shot-based metrics show a correlation--not a causation, a correlation--to success on the ice. They are not an end in themselves. The purpose of hockey is not to slightly outshoot the other team, but to win the game. So and so's fenwick% being 3 points above sea level does not mean he's having a good season.

If his critics believed this all along, at least there would be some consistency.

The problem is that they put Kessel over the barrel last year for those very same metrics last season without taking the context into account, and now that they paint a much sunnier picture, they're dismissed.

In Kessel's case, he's a $7 million player with 1 goal at even strength (good for 10th on his team) and 3 assists (good for 7th) at the quarter season mark. He is not bringing value equal to the share of salary cap allocated to him (or even coming close, really) which is why Coyote fans are displeased with him. That his line shoots a few more times than the opposition while starting almost entirely in the offensive zone is not something to brag about, considering a) that's the expected result for any player and b) the outcomes that occur when Kessel is on the ice are otherwise poor.

Right. And last year his ES production was elite but the shot differential stats were poor.

The goalposts are always moving with Kessel. One indisputable fact is that we would be a much better team right now if we had Kessel in Galchenyuk's place. The former fills a number of roles we could use (even in Arizona, he has more PP points than anyone on our team) and the latter fills none while having all of Kessel's drawbacks.

 

[Turin]

Imagine believing it’s impossible that a specialized offensive winger would decline in his abilities at 32 years old.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Kessel is in Galchenyuk’s role in Arizona is even worse than he was here. And that team is rolling teams. Arizona’s powerplay is also pretty mediocre.

Kahun, Rust, McCann would not be getting the usage they are now if we had Kessel. Rust is proving as I predicted he could easily replace ES Kessel if given the time in the top six in his natural position.

We should see Malkin/Rust for at least next 3 years. His injuries prevented him from reaching that 20g mark so far. With the pace hes at, he may skip past it and have his first 30g season.

Im just glad hes finally with Malkin(should be McCann too if Sid was in).

 

[Gurglesons]

Arizona improved on the PP and we declined considerably. Contrary to popular opinion at the time, Galchenyuk has not come close to matching Kessel's impact here at ES or on the PP, and none of our PP options have adequately replaced Kessel's presence in transition or on the left boards.

There's zero reason why Kahun, McCann or Rust couldn't be used exactly the same way this year if Kessel were here. It's literally as simple as using Kessel like we use Galchenyuk at ES. And as much as I like Rust, remember that he's on one of his patented hot streaks and he has about as much chance of replacing Kessel's ES production as Galchenyuk did/does.



If his critics believed this all along, at least there would be some consistency.

The problem is that they put Kessel over the barrel last year for those very same metrics last season without taking the context into account, and now that they paint a much sunnier picture, they're dismissed.



Right. And last year his ES production was elite but the shot differential stats were poor.

The goalposts are always moving with Kessel. One indisputable fact is that we would be a much better team right now if we had Kessel in Galchenyuk's place. The former fills a number of roles we could use (even in Arizona, he has more PP points than anyone on our team) and the latter fills none while having all of Kessel's drawbacks.

That is not an undisputed fact and basically a paper argument. The roster may be better on paper like Brassard versus Sheahan.

Also, nobody said it was a given Galchenyuk would produce anywhere close to Kessel. The argument was it was a worthwhile gamble to get Kessel and his negative impact off the team.

This is literally Daniel Sprong all over again.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Let's say Kessel is in decline, and he probably is (I mean, decline was inevitable going from the Crosby/Malkin Penguins to the defense-first Coyotes). Trading him was not really the biggest issue. REPLACING him has been. Handedness is a major issue here, in that we are really missing a right-handed winger who can create some offense and can help out the power play.

The trade in a nutshell was not bad...Pierre-Olivier Joseph will hopefully make the deal look more palatable in a year or so. We just need to find our next Kessel. Galchenyuk cannot be that guy alone, or even at all. He is not going to make a huge impact on our power play because we already have the threats on the right side, but we are missing the guy for the other side of the ice. Having both right defensemen on the ice was not working. Hornqvist is a one-trick pony and Bjugstad is simply not good enough for the job.

The ONLY internal possibly for fixing the power play is to give Sam Lafferty a shot at Kessel's old role. Of course, in order to do that Sullivan would have to play him ahead of one of his faves like Aston-Reese and we all know that is not happening.

If there is a silver lining to the Crosby injury, MAYBE it is the possibility that Sullivan is forced to turn to Lafferty in a more offensive role.

 

[Turin]

As you said prior, we know what kind of player Kessel was. His value to us was no longer there. The team is much better without him as can be seen in OUR underlying numbers.

How anyone can watch games and want for Phil Kessel is beyond me especially considering he now has 26 ES points in 62 games since the calendar year started. For reference Malkin has 27 ES in 32 games since January 1st and McCann has 26 ES in 57 games since January 1st.

All it takes is to be a right handed shot with white tape and a hard wrist shot to be a good player for some. See: Sprong.

Kessel is so bad now at the stuff that every other player is expected to just do as a baseline to stay in the league that it hurts to watch.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

That is not an undisputed fact and basically a paper argument. The roster may be better on paper like Brassard versus Sheahan.

Also, nobody said it was a given Galchenyuk would produce anywhere close to Kessel. The argument was it was a worthwhile gamble to get Kessel and his negative impact off the team.

This is literally Daniel Sprong all over again.

No, actually. Not to throw anyone in particular under the bus, but the argument that Gooch could come close to/replace Kessel's ES production and his PP contributions made up for by others like Guentzel/Letang/Schultz was most definitely made.

And I don't know how anyone can watch our PP and suggest that Kessel isn't missed with a straight face. That's without even taking the numbers into account.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

All it takes is to be a right handed shot with white tape and a hard wrist shot to be a good player for some. See: Sprong.

Kessel is so bad now at the stuff that every other player is expected to just do as a baseline to stay in the league that it hurts to watch.

And, you know, production at every single level when he's been given opportunity, including the NHL.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Arizona improved on the PP and we declined considerably. Contrary to popular opinion at the time, Galchenyuk has not come close to matching Kessel's impact here at ES or on the PP, and none of our PP options have adequately replaced Kessel's presence in transition or on the left boards.

There's zero reason why Kahun, McCann or Rust couldn't be used exactly the same way this year if Kessel were here. It's literally as simple as using Kessel like we use Galchenyuk at ES. And as much as I like Rust, remember that he's on one of his patented hot streaks and he has about as much chance of replacing Kessel's ES production as Galchenyuk did/does.



If his critics believed this all along, at least there would be some consistency.

The problem is that they put Kessel over the barrel last year for those very same metrics last season without taking the context into account, and now that they paint a much sunnier picture, they're dismissed.



Right. And last year his ES production was elite but the shot differential stats were poor.

The goalposts are always moving with Kessel. One indisputable fact is that we would be a much better team right now if we had Kessel in Galchenyuk's place. The former fills a number of roles we could use and the latter fills none while having all of Kessel's drawbacks.

Not all. UFA instead. And 25. Only 9 games so far. Missing half of our games played while also having Geno out for that stretch too.

Didn't do him any favors. If we can get a great return then fine but we've already seen him do well on shit teams...id at least wait til Jan .

Kessel also was a prob with that iron man streak lol. Refused to sit even tho he could have benefited by it for the playoffs

 

[Iapyi]

Why is this true? Why does the responsibility for making a player work only on the coach and not on the player?

Both Sullivan and Kessel are to blame, but trying to say Kessel is blameless is just crazy. He's worn out his welcome for 3 teams now, just because he's a lazy player who refuses to play the game any other way. Sullivan shouldn't have been so dead set on him playing a certain style, and instead gave him some freedom to play his own way. But Kessel also should have made an effort to play a style that Sullivan liked instead of just doing whatever he wanted. It's a 2-way street. It's like blaming divorce on 1 parent while both were hardcore alcoholics, they both caused it to fail.

If I was the coach I wouldn't want him on the team, I'm pretty certain Babcock signed with the Maple Leafs contingent on them disposing of him.

Having special rules or exemptions for any player on a team is a recipe for disaster. Other players generally don't like playing with guys who don't pull their own weight when it comes to effort and work ethic.

One bad apple will spoil the barrel.

I watch all the extended highlights of Yotes games because I kind of like their team and I'm interested to see how Kessel would go and this matches up with what I saw too. He seemed really engaged early in the season, was making plays but not getting the bounces. I don't know about "horrendous" but he's been conspicuously absent from video lately. His stats are real bad, 1 ES goal (2 PP goals) in 19 games and the second worst +/- on the team at -6. Idk maybe he plays in front of Jack Johnson in Arizona too.

Kessel was a good player for the Pens in the cup runs, but I was thrilled to see him moved last summer. He's not a good player anymore and he didn't fit on this team. Even if AG doesn't work out it was addition by subtraction at that point. This year's Penguins team looks engaged and energised and I think moving Phil was the perfect way to make room for young players to come in and bring their enthusiasm and excitement with them.

Same thing happened in Toronto. He poisoned the team.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Not all. UFA instead. And 25. Only 9 games so far. Missing half of our games played while also having Geno out for that stretch too.

Didn't do him any favors. If we can get a great return then fine but we've already seen him do well on **** teams...id at least wait til Jan .

Kessel also was a prob with that iron man streak lol. Refused to sit even tho he could have benefited by it for the playoffs

Missing games is part of the drawback. Galchenyuk being 25 is pointless if he's not useful this season and a UFA at the end of the year.

If he turns it around, beautiful. But the early returns are ugly.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

No, actually. Not to throw anyone in particular under the bus, but the argument that Gooch could come close to/replace Kessel's ES production and his PP contributions made up for by others like Guentzel/Letang/Schultz was most definitely made.

And I don't know how anyone can watch our PP and suggest that Kessel isn't missed with a straight face. That's without even taking the numbers into account.

I dont miss his turnovers that led to SH goals or the PP wasted. Will always be one of my favs for winning us the two cups but JR was right to move on.

And we have no clue what AG will do by the time Jan comes. Im glad hes not upping his value with reg season pts since I want to re-sign him for a few years(til others like Poulin are fully ready)

Kessel was bringing down Malkin too so he had to go. We dont need AG to have Kessel like numbers...just gel with Malkin/Rust.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I dont miss his turnovers that led to SH goals or the PP wasted. Will always be one of my favs for winning us the two cups but JR was right to move on.

And we have no clue what AG will do by the time Jan comes. Im glad hes not upping his value with reg season pts since I want to re-sign him for a few years(til others like Poulin are fully ready)

Kessel was bringing down Malkin too so he had to go. We dont need AG to have Kessel like numbers...just gel with Malkin/Rust.

If you didn't like the PP before I don't see how you could prefer the present version.

Kessel wasn't bringing Malkin down last year, and the numbers reflect that. It was the defense playing behind them.

So far AG hasn't shown anything. I'll be ecstatic if he does. If he doesn't improve there's no reason to re-sign him because we can make better use of the cap than to sign a player who does nothing for us.

 

[Iapyi]

All it takes is to be a right handed shot with white tape and a hard wrist shot to be a good player for some. See: Sprong.

Kessel is so bad now at the stuff that every other player is expected to just do as a baseline to stay in the league that it hurts to watch.

He's always been that bad.

 

[Gurglesons]

No, actually. Not to throw anyone in particular under the bus, but the argument that Gooch could come close to/replace Kessel's ES production and his PP contributions made up for by others like Guentzel/Letang/Schultz was most definitely made.

And I don't know how anyone can watch our PP and suggest that Kessel isn't missed with a straight face. That's without even taking the numbers into account.

I don’t think anyone declared it as a reality. It was more along the lines of there is a chance / opportunity for it.

Once again. Our GF% is basically the same as it was with Kessel on the PP. Despite us not producing anything.

Is the PP really effective if we are giving up 15+ goals a year largely in part due to the QB?

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Missing games is part of the drawback. Galchenyuk being 25 is pointless if he's not useful this season and a UFA at the end of the year.

If he turns it around, beautiful. But the early returns are ugly.

Being 25(and having a solid past so far, most are just holding him to that 3rd overall pick status and waiting for the 60-80 pt seasons)... is what would get us a good return in a trade this year if by Jan/Feb they decide to move on.

If he was 32 and struggling? Diff story.

Btw just about the whole lineup is filled with two way players. We are fine having AG...who is a type that could get hot and dominate a playoff series being the difference. 4g4a type series if hes on. Then could go scoreless the next series but we do need that high end type who can go off, even tho he hasnt been consistent so far in his career.

McCann(not yet), Rust, Kahun and others dont have that in them. May put up same numbers overall if we are assuming theyd reach the finals. Sid/Geno/Guentzel/AG are the most skilled.

We can afford to wait it out with him(I get the concern so not really arguing that...im just not worried yet) even with all of the injuries cuz of McCann, Rust stepping up. We'd have probs right now if those two didnt win us the Isles/Hawks games and tie the Rangers game up to get that pt.

Im more focused on Bjugstad. If Crosby is gonna be out a month+ ....this will be his chance to pan out here. If not thats more of an issue.

 

[Gurglesons]

Missing games is part of the drawback. Galchenyuk being 25 is pointless if he's not useful this season and a UFA at the end of the year.

If he turns it around, beautiful. But the early returns are ugly.

You keep going back to this “return is ugly” argument. The point was never the return, the point was getting Kessel off the team.

If you view the trade as Galchenyuk as a direct replacement of Kessel it will always look ugly.

The point was to solidify our bottom six with a player like Tanev, lighten up the RW cap commitment given the fact both Hornqvist and Rust could slide in the top six with Geno or Sid and produce around the same goal totals as Kessel has at ES, and fixing the laziness of the PP which was breaking team records for the amount of goals given up last year.

 

[RizzleMcRib]

All I know is that without Kessel we are still scoring at the same rate as we were last year, while being a better team defensively. Plus Galchenyuck comes off the books next season.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

If you didn't like the PP before I don't see how you could prefer the present version.

Kessel wasn't bringing Malkin down last year, and the numbers reflect that. It was the defense playing behind them.

So far AG hasn't shown anything. I'll be ecstatic if he does. If he doesn't improve there's no reason to re-sign him because we can make better use of the cap than to sign a player who does nothing for us.

PP way worse right now. But again, its early. And I kinda like that we are getting most of our goals 5 on 5. We know the PP eventually finds its way. They'll get there eventually and our team will be much better cuz of the struggles so far(5 on 5 play providing all of the offense).

As for Kessel and Malkin...referring to all of the talk about Geno wanting someone else . They werent great 5 on 5. Horrible in OT reg season lol.

Kessel should always be remembered for helping us win again(not his past two seasons, where his numbers were fjne, just seemed "off " in playoffs).

But we had to get younger anyway. And we got POJ too. IF AG isn't gelling here in a few months I can see JR having no prob trading him to add someone of value. Whether it's another UFA or JR starts his first of many deals with Guerin using Galchenyuk to get Zucker.