Confirmed with Link: Kessel and a 4th to Arizona for Galchenyuk and PO Joseph

[ChaosAgent]

I honestly would not do that.

Me neither, but it's fun to contemplate. Perhaps if we added Schultz and they added a first?

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

It just blows my mind for how some people try to blame coaches for faults in players. It's not the coach's job to cater to any specific player, it's the coach's job to get the best team possible. With Kessel playing how he played, it was impossible to get the "best team possible" with him on it. If Kessel wanted to stay, he should have made any effort to play a more well rounded game that had him giving effort at all times. He didn't do that at all. Expecting coaches to have to deal with lazy and selfish players because "it's their job" is putting needless babysitting work on a coach that the player shouldn't need.

If you were a boss and one of your employees didn't follow company policy for how to do work and refused to change how he worked when confronted about it, would you say "Just let him do what he wants"?

Kessel always played that way. He didn't change, his circumstances and expectations did.

His decline in underlying numbers last year is a direct consequence of a decline in his support on the back-end, as has been shown time and time again, no matter how inconvenient those numbers are when it comes to scapegoating him.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Kessel always played that way. He didn't change, his circumstances and expectations did.

His decline in underlying numbers last year is a direct consequence of a decline in his support on the back-end, as has been shown time and time again, no matter how inconvenient those numbers are when it comes to scapegoating him.

You bolding something that is false doesn't make it true.

You've tried to bring this point up in response to me a ton of times, and I've refuted it with the same thing every time. Come up with new arguments if you're going to reply to me on Kessel.

 

[Beauner]

Kessel always played that way. He didn't change, his circumstances and expectations did.

His decline in underlying numbers last year is a direct consequence of a decline in his support on the back-end, as has been shown time and time again, no matter how inconvenient those numbers are when it comes to scapegoating him.

so what's his excuse this year?

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

You bolding something that is false doesn't make it true.

You've tried to bring this point up in response to me a ton of times, and I've refuted it with the same thing every time. Come up with new arguments if you're going to reply to me on Kessel.

Not with anything valid. What was it again, for posterity?

so what's his excuse this year?

Kessel's underlying numbers are fine this year.

 

[Beauner]

Kessel's underlying numbers are fine this year.

I'm sure Coyotes fans are taking great consolation in that.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I'm sure Coyotes fans are taking great consolation in that.

My argument has never been what Coyotes fans take consolation in.

 

[EightyOne]

My argument has never been what Coyotes fans take consolation in.

That's because you're a fan of the player and not overall effect that player brings upon the team.

 

[Doogle]

I love Kessel but it was clearly time to get out from under him. He's looked awful at 5 on 5 for two years now. He also doesn't train hard and has made his career on his unreal wrist shot, speed, and passing abilities. Right now it seems he's only doing one of the three well, because his speed is diminishing and he hasn't been utilizing his shot.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

That's because you're a fan of the player and not overall effect that player brings upon the team.

Pardon? The criticism was that Kessel became a huge liability defensively last year and that was reflected in his advanced stats.

My counter-argument was that his dip last season was on account of the Pens losing Letang and Schultz for long periods, and that playing an excessive amount of time with JJ and a one-legged Schultz were to blame for that decline, which was reflected in his numbers with and without those 2 players...a consequence that also affected his linemate Malkin.

Now Kessel goes to a new team without those variables and all of a sudden, his underlying numbers are fine again. Seems pretty cut-and-dried - playing regularly with shitty defensemen compounds the defensive issues of an offense-only forward. Who knew?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Not with anything valid. What was it again, for posterity?

We've had this discussion like a dozen times. This is how it always goes:

You: "Kessel's bad play last year is due to Johnson"
Me: "The bad analytics between Johnson and Kessel were almost entirely from when Schultz was playing with Johnson, so Schultz definitely deserves some blame there"
You: "Schultz broke his leg, so it's Johnson's fault"
Me: "Yeah but Schultz still sucked, him breaking his leg is why he sucked"
You: "Schultz broke his leg, so it's Johnson's fault"

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

We've had this discussion like a dozen times. This is how it always goes:

You: "Kessel's bad play last year is due to Johnson"
Me: "The bad analytics between Johnson and Kessel were almost entirely from when Schultz was playing with Johnson, so Schultz definitely deserves some blame there"
You: "Schultz broke his leg, so it's Johnson's fault"
Me: "Yeah but Schultz still sucked, him breaking his leg is why he sucked"
You: "Schultz broke his leg, so it's Johnson's fault"

No, I acknowledged Schultz's part in this the last time we did this dance (which doesn't exculpate JJ, by the way).

What's clear is that Kessel's "defensive decline" last year was a mirage that ignored the obvious context of who was playing behind him. He is who we thought he was. Unfortunately, it looks like Galchenyuk is too.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Pardon? The criticism was that Kessel became a huge liability defensively last year and that was reflected in his advanced stats.

My counter-argument was that his dip last season was on account of the Pens losing Letang and Schultz for long periods, and that playing an excessive amount of time with JJ and a one-legged Schultz were to blame for that decline, which was reflected in his numbers with and without those 2 players...a consequence that also affected his linemate Malkin.

Now Kessel goes to a new team without those variables and all of a sudden, his underlying numbers are fine again. Seems pretty cut-and-dried - playing regularly with ****ty defensemen compounds the defensive issues of an offense-only forward. Who knew?

You're missing the part where his underlying numbers aren't fine considering his zone starts and Coyotes fans are very dissatisfied with him.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

You're missing the part where his underlying numbers aren't fine considering his zone starts and Coyotes fans are very dissatisfied with him.

The difference in Kessel's zone starts do not account for the difference in underlying stats (he went from 65.6 OZ last year to 69.9 this year, a marginal change), and again, what Coyotes fans think has never once entered into my equation.

 

[Beauner]

Pardon? The criticism was that Kessel became a huge liability defensively last year and that was reflected in his advanced stats.

My counter-argument was that his dip last season was on account of the Pens losing Letang and Schultz for long periods, and that playing an excessive amount of time with JJ and a one-legged Schultz were to blame for that decline, which was reflected in his numbers with and without those 2 players...a consequence that also affected his linemate Malkin.

Now Kessel goes to a new team without those variables and all of a sudden, his underlying numbers are fine again. Seems pretty cut-and-dried - playing regularly with ****ty defensemen compounds the defensive issues of an offense-only forward. Who knew?

You can not blame Jack Johnson for Kessel turning the puck over 78 times last year. His next highest number in a season with us was 60 in 17-18. It wasn't just defense. He had no idea what to do with the puck anymore. He also had his lowest shot per game total last year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

No, I acknowledged Schultz's part in this the last time we did this dance (which doesn't exculpate JJ, by the way).

Where did I ever say that Johnson had no responsibility for Kessel's bad play last year? I'm criticizing you for completely blaming him, I'm not saying he's blameless.

What's clear is that Kessel's "defensive decline" last year was a mirage that ignored the obvious context of who was playing behind him. He is who we thought he was. Unfortunately, it looks like Galchenyuk is too.

Kessel did not just have a "defensive decline" last year, and blaming the defensemen on his lazy/bad defensive play is just hilarious. No, the major decline last year came from Kessel's offensive generation, which was really crappy at ES. Whether you want to look at shot generation or ES production, he fell off a cliff in the second half of last season.

 

[molon labe]

Where did I ever say that Johnson had no responsibility for Kessel's bad play last year? I'm criticizing you for completely blaming him, I'm not saying he's blameless.



Kessel did not just have a "defensive decline" last year, and blaming the defensemen on his lazy/bad defensive play is just hilarious. No, the major decline last year came from Kessel's offensive generation, which was really crappy at ES. Whether you want to look at shot generation or ES production, he fell off a cliff in the second half of last season.

Bolded absolutely. Even in the 2017 playoffs (where he was still productive) - his wrist shot was nearly absent. In the following season..it was GONE. By the time he was traded, his even strength threat level and patented wrister were things of the past.

Though - we've all discussed this ad naseum....and the proof is easily available - yet it continues to fall on deaf ears. The man won hearts...that's clearly all it takes in Pittsburgh.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Where did I ever say that Johnson had no responsibility for Kessel's bad play last year? I'm criticizing you for completely blaming him, I'm not saying he's blameless.

Then you're tilting at windmills, because you're criticizing me for something I'm not saying.

Kessel did not just have a "defensive decline" last year, and blaming the defensemen on his lazy/bad defensive play is just hilarious. No, the major decline last year came from Kessel's offensive generation, which was really crappy at ES. Whether you want to look at shot generation or ES production, he fell off a cliff in the second half of last season.

Shot generation/differential reflect exactly what I'm saying regardless what end of the ice you want to talk about, and the difference in Kessel's ES production between last year and the year before is negligible as I've pointed out before. Now the variables removed and his numbers reflect it again. Don't argue with me, argue with the stats.

Parsing his numbers by halves of the season is as pointless now as ever.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

You can not blame Jack Johnson for Kessel turning the puck over 78 times last year. His next highest number in a season with us was 60 in 17-18. It wasn't just defense. He had no idea what to do with the puck anymore. He also had his lowest shot per game total last year.

Are we trading Malkin now too? Because he had a lot more turnovers.

 

[SEALBound]

No, I acknowledged Schultz's part in this the last time we did this dance (which doesn't exculpate JJ, by the way).

What's clear is that Kessel's "defensive decline" last year was a mirage that ignored the obvious context of who was playing behind him. He is who we thought he was. Unfortunately, it looks like Galchenyuk is too.

I understand your argument...Kessel was bad last year because he had Johnson and Schultz on his back end and that drug down his numbers. Okay, I get that and I think there's a bit of fairness there.

But my argument is, why would the team want a player whose numbers are so dependent on everyone else? So what...so unless Kessel has the perfect combination of linemates he's not going to be impactful? That he needs THAT much sheltering and boosting up? Why do we feel thats what we need eating up $6.8mil?

I miss Kessel too at times. But it was time. Doesn't mean it's an easy break. I do not miss him.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Bolded absolutely. Even in the 2017 playoffs (where he was still productive) - his wrist shot was nearly absent. In the following season..it was GONE. By the time he was traded, his even strength threat level and patented wrister were things of the past.

Though - we've all discussed this ad naseum....and the proof is easily available - yet it continues to fall on deaf ears. The man won hearts...that's clearly all it takes in Pittsburgh.

What proof? He scored a handful of ES points fewer last year than the year before despite being thrown to the wolves with garbage defensemen behind him...and that decline was less than what his linemate Malkin saw under the same circumstances.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I understand your argument...Kessel was bad last year because he had Johnson and Schultz on his back end and that drug down his numbers. Okay, I get that and I think there's a bit of fairness there.

But my argument is, why would the team want a player whose numbers are so dependent on everyone else? So what...so unless Kessel has the perfect combination of linemates he's not going to be impactful? That he needs THAT much sheltering and boosting up? Why do we feel thats what we need eating up $6.8mil?

I miss Kessel too at times. But it was time. Doesn't mean it's an easy break. I do not miss him.

Everybody is affected by who they play with. As I've shown, Malkin was subject to the same circumstances and was affected even more adversely. Even Sid saw a huge decline in his effectiveness when he was playing in front of those defensemen, but he didn't play as large a portion of his time with them.

But ya know, I'm glad we keep those two around.

 

[Gurglesons]

Are we trading Malkin now too? Because he had a lot more turnovers.

As you said prior, we know what kind of player Kessel was. His value to us was no longer there. The team is much better without him as can be seen in OUR underlying numbers.

How anyone can watch games and want for Phil Kessel is beyond me especially considering he now has 26 ES points in 62 games since the calendar year started. For reference Malkin has 27 ES in 32 games since January 1st and McCann has 26 ES in 57 games since January 1st.

 

[EightyOne]

Pardon? The criticism was that Kessel became a huge liability defensively last year and that was reflected in his advanced stats.

My counter-argument was that his dip last season was on account of the Pens losing Letang and Schultz for long periods, and that playing an excessive amount of time with JJ and a one-legged Schultz were to blame for that decline, which was reflected in his numbers with and without those 2 players...a consequence that also affected his linemate Malkin.

Now Kessel goes to a new team without those variables and all of a sudden, his underlying numbers are fine again. Seems pretty cut-and-dried - playing regularly with ****ty defensemen compounds the defensive issues of an offense-only forward. Who knew?

Right. You continue to care about Kessel. Not the team he is on.

He was never going to play on line one. He was never going to get the great puck moving support (which even though the d this year is better overall, they still aren't great at it). It would be nice to have better d-men to support the forward group at all times. That...isn't happening here. Priorities are on a decent overall cast because a lot of money is tied up in like five players. So....Kessel is gone.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

As you said prior, we know what kind of player Kessel was. His value to us was no longer there. The team is much better without him as can be seen in OUR underlying numbers.

How anyone can watch games and want for Phil Kessel is beyond me especially considering he now has 26 ES points in 62 games since the calendar year started.

This team's underlying numbers are better because it's playing some young blood at forward and the defense has been healthier and seen the emergence of Marino, so Sully didn't feel compelled to put JJ in a top 4 role.

Put Kessel in Galchenyuk's role and the team's better than it's been. The PP's not a complete abomination, and we have an elite scorer who can stay in the line-up.