Confirmed with Link: Kessel and a 4th to Arizona for Galchenyuk and PO Joseph

[Dipsy Doodle]

I mean this from the bottom of my heart: if you honestly think that Jack Johnson was the sole reason for every single problem on the Penguins last year, your opinion is worthless because you're showing yourself to not be at all rational. I don't know if it's laziness, scapegoating or just being a fanboy, but it's just absolutely absurd in every way.

When I read that, I basically interpret that to mean "the Penguins have a perfect team outside of Jack Johnson". For a team that got embarrassed in a 4-0 sweep in the playoffs last year, yeah that's just bull****. Regardless of what Johnson did, Kessel was a negative player analytically both offensively and defensively. He put up 2 ES goals from February 1st until the end of the season. He had a stretch of 29 games without an ES goal. That's the reality of what Kessel did last year, and the Penguins were 100% in the right to pull the plug on him when they did.

Kessel's production over the course of the season (PP, ES, whatever) and underlying numbers with and without JJ over the past 2 seasons bear out exactly what I'm saying.

None of that is in dispute. The data couldn't be more clear.

So, nonsense like parsing with arbitrary timeframes, isolated stats being used as the sole determinant of a player's value (ES goals > all!), ad hominems, etc are the only refuge for those wanting to diminish Kessel's performance.

Not my problem if you infer things that weren't implied about the team as a whole.

 

[Shady Machine]

We don't cotton to that sort of talk 'round here mister. You take that common sense nonsense of yours to someone else's town before someone gets bit by a spider.


edit: The only strong takeaway I think that can be taken from Kessel in Arizona (and it should still wait for 20 games) is that Kessel appears to be heavily dependent on his supporting cast these days. Which I guess isn't really news anyway.

Yeah I think that's fair. Most I did, in absence of watching the games, is take a gander at the Coyotes board. Most seem happy with his play so far and advanced stats seem to indicate some kind of dam is going to open up for him. Again still early so let's see.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Kessel's production over the course of the season (PP, ES, whatever) and underlying numbers with and without JJ over the past 2 seasons bear out exactly what I'm saying.

None of that is in dispute. The data couldn't be more clear.

Huh, it's almost like just posting CF% stats while ignoring a massive amount of context is a flawed argument. Who could have thought that?

So, nonsense like parsing with arbitrary timeframes, isolated stats being used as the sole determinant of a player's value (ES goals > all!), ad hominems, etc are the only refuge for those wanting to diminish Kessel's performance.

Not my problem if you infer things that weren't implied about the team as a whole.

So pointing out that Kessel couldn't score to save his life for the second half of last season is "arbitrary", but blaming cancer on Jack Johnson is fine because you can look at CF% stats while completely ignoring context (like how Schultz dragged down Kessel way more than Johnson did). Gotcha.

Johnson is 1 of 5 players on the ice and he spends about a third of his ice time with those guys. You can mention their WOWY analytics all you want, and you can legitimately argue that Johnson hurt a ton of players based on those WOWY stats, but blaming Johnson for their bad play is just horribly biased and reeks of scapegoating 1 player for a team's failures. Johnson isn't the reason Kessel couldn't score goals for the last half of the season. Johnson didn't cause Kessel to have 78 giveaways last year. Johnson didn't cause Kessel to regress to a PP specialist last year.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Huh, it's almost like just posting CF% stats while ignoring a massive amount of context is a flawed argument. Who could have thought that?

I'm providing context.

Me ignoring context here? That's a masterclass in projection.

So pointing out that Kessel couldn't score to save his life for the second half of last season is "arbitrary", but blaming cancer on Jack Johnson is fine because you can look at CF% stats while completely ignoring context (like how Schultz dragged down Kessel way more than Johnson did). Gotcha.

Schultz was playing on one leg. JJ's playing on two legs, he just performs like he's playing on one.

Don't be afraid to acknowledge it just because you were his biggest proponent on the board.

And like pixies, your criticisms of Kessel's 2nd half performance hinges on goals, as if that was ever his main contribution. That's a fallacy. He hit 30 goals once in his 4 years here, and in that season he put up nearly twice as many assists. Kessel was never primarily a goal scorer for his entire tenure as a Penguin.

Johnson is 1 of 5 players on the ice and he spends about a third of his ice time with those guys. You can mention their WOWY analytics all you want, and you can legitimately argue that Johnson hurt a ton of players based on those WOWY stats, but blaming Johnson for their bad play is just horribly biased and reeks of scapegoating 1 player for a team's failures. Johnson isn't the reason Kessel couldn't score goals for the last half of the season. Johnson didn't cause Kessel to have 78 giveaways last year. Johnson didn't cause Kessel to regress to a PP specialist last year.

Again, I didn't say anything about the team as a whole. That's a strawman.

And Kessel didn't even lead the team in giveaways. Malkin did.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Imagine thinking that just posting naturalstattrick stats without anything else is "providing context". Lol.

Imagine thinking that saying "Schultz was playing on 1 leg last year" suddenly means he didn't drag down Kessel more than Johnson did. I don't even know how you can even logically make that statement. You're basically admitting that Schultz was horrible last year with the excuse of "he was horrible because he broke his leg", but then you decide to suddenly not blame him like you're blaming Johnson because....he was injured last year? Him breaking his leg last year was why he was horrible last year, but that's doesn't absolve his terrible play at all. He was terrible because of the injury, but he was still terrible.

Just think about it for a second. Your argument is that Johnson dragged down Kessel last year based on with/without stats. Schultz also dragged down Kessel last year based on with/without stats, to an even larger degree than Johnson did. The reason Johnson did that is because he's just a bad hockey player. The reason Schultz did that is that he blew up his leg, plus he's not actually that good of a player. So you decide to blame Johnson entirely on Kessel's play, with basically saying "it's not Schultz's fault because he was hurt last year"?

Imagine thinking that Kesesl scoring 0 ES goals over a 29 game stretch and scoring 2 ES goals from February until the end of the season isn't a problem because "goals aren't his main contribution". Lol.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Imagine thinking that just posting naturalstattrick stats without anything else is "providing context". Lol.

Imagine thinking that saying "Schultz was playing on 1 leg last year" suddenly means he didn't drag down Kessel more than Johnson did. I don't even know how you can even logically make that statement. You're basically admitting that Schultz was horrible last year with the excuse of "he was horrible because he broke his leg", but then you decide to suddenly not blame him like you're blaming Johnson because....he was injured last year? Him breaking his leg last year was why he was horrible last year, but that's doesn't absolve his terrible play at all. He was terrible because of the injury, but he was still terrible.

Just think about it for a second. Your argument is that Johnson dragged down Kessel last year based on with/without stats. Schultz also dragged down Kessel last year based on with/without stats, to an even larger degree than Johnson did. The reason Johnson did that is because he's just a bad hockey player. The reason Schultz did that is that he blew up his leg, plus he's not actually that good of a player. So you decide to blame Johnson entirely on Kessel's play, with basically saying "it's not Schultz's fault because he was hurt last year"?

Schultz clearly contributed to Kessel's drop last year too - nobody's denying that. But unlike JJ, his was a temporary condition.

Imagine thinking that Kesesl scoring 0 ES goals over a 29 game stretch and scoring 2 ES goals from February until the end of the season isn't a problem because "goals aren't his main contribution". Lol.

Imagine putting more emphasis on a 29 game drought than a P/G season.

And I'll remind you that regardless of that drought, Kessel put up the 2nd highest goal total of his Pens tenure last year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Schultz clearly contributed to Kessel's drop last year too - nobody's denying that. But unlike JJ, his was a temporary condition.

Isn't that exactly what you're doing when you're blaming Johnson entirely on Kessel's play last year? Blaming Johnson entirely for the 2nd line's struggles is implying that Schultz, Malkin, Kessel or whatever LW was on that line had nothing to do with why the 2nd line sucked.

Imagine putting more emphasis on a 29 game drought than a P/G season.

Yes, Kessel was great for the first half of that season and sucked in the 2nd half of the season. That sounds about right. No one said that Kessel was bad for the entire year, rather that he was just bad for the 2nd half of the year. Which he was, and is why trading him made complete sense.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Isn't that exactly what you're doing when you're blaming Johnson entirely on Kessel's play last year? Blaming Johnson entirely for the 2nd line's struggles is implying that Schultz, Malkin, Kessel or whatever LW was on that line had nothing to do with why the 2nd line sucked.

I literally just said that an injured Schultz was a big factor too. I put more emphasis on JJ because, like I said, JJ's is not a temporary condition.

Yes, Kessel was great for the first half of that season and sucked in the 2nd half of the season. That sounds about right. No one said that Kessel was bad for the entire year, rather that he was just bad for the 2nd half of the year. Which he was, and is why trading him made complete sense.

Kessel still scored 29 points in 34 games after the All-Star break. If that kind of a half-season with extenuating circumstances justifies a trade, we should have traded Sid halfway through '15-'16.

 

[Shady Machine]

This is fun.

 

[kladorf2005]

@Soggy Biscuit

The foundation of your argument is essentially Kessel's point totals. You claim other posters aren't providing context but when in reality it's you that is lacking the context

Kessel had three strengths:
- speed
- high (offensive) hockey IQ
- a good wrist shot

That's it. That's the list. And the first two items on the list were only strengths when he wasn't pouting and/or being lazy. Are you ready for his list of weakness?

- he was lazy AF
- no one-timer
- zero defense, less than zero actually
- zero physicality, again less than zero (the ironman thing actually hurt the team at times)
- horrible on the boards

I'm sure there are more, but that first item is the one that appeared more apparent last year. And especially the second half of last year. Which is why other posters have pointed out his declining production, most notably at ES (that you blindly keep dismissing as "parsing stats").

I've got news for you, parsing data is a very common technique in the statistical world to find patterns and trends that could be predictive of future events. The fact is that Kessel was on the decline, at least here in Pittsburgh anyway. So stop continually spouting off nonsense about people arbitrarily parsing his stats. It's meaningful. And the only reason you don't agree is because it paints a negative picture someone you like.

 

[IcedCapp]

hope y'all stay hydrated. Hate for you to be pissin' dust on this grave

 

[Shady Machine]

Playing 82 games a year and elite passing ability should be added to the strength list. Also, saying "that's it. that's the list" seems to be a way to downplay the strengths, which are pretty damn important strengths.

 

[Peat]

The circs in which you trade a Kessel are in no way comparable to the circs in which you trade a Malkin or Crosby. That comparison should be thrown out the window.

That said, yes, there's quite a few extenuating circumstances to Kessel's play last season. But it was still mostly bad outside that extra hot opening month and still mostly bad away from he who shall not be named. Some of that bad play definitely looked linked to a potential decline - there were a few too many times he simply couldn't get separation with his skating and get his shot off in a scenario where I felt sure he would have a year before. Some of it probably wasn't linked. He's probably still a really good player. Just don't think his strengths lined up with what Sid, Geno and the team wanted anymore.

Dunno why I felt the need to contribute to the posthumous equine flagellation but there we go.

 

[PensandCaps]

defending JJ is a weird hill to die on

 

[kladorf2005]

Playing 82 games a year and elite passing ability should be added to the strength list. Also, saying "that's it. that's the list" seems to be a way to downplay the strengths, which are pretty damn important strengths.

Did you read the part where I said the ironman thing actually hurt the teams at times? His lack of physicality and willingness to play defense cost the Pens more wins than if he had missed a few games due to injury.

And "elite passing ability" might have been the most overrated part of his game. He was a good passer when he had time and space. Not elite. Sid and Backstrom are elite passers. Not Phil. And Phil was a panicky little female dog when that time and space was taken away from him.

So no. Neither one of those items get added to the strength list.

The other strengths are important, yes. But as I pointed out, 2 of his 3 strengths were no longer strengths when his top weakness, being a lazy , took over.

 

[ziggyjoe212]

@Soggy Biscuit

The foundation of your argument is essentially Kessel's point totals. You claim other posters aren't providing context but when in reality it's you that is lacking the context

Kessel had three strengths:
- speed
- high (offensive) hockey IQ
- a good wrist shot

That's it. That's the list. And the first two items on the list were only strengths when he wasn't pouting and/or being lazy. Are you ready for his list of weakness?

- he was lazy AF
- no one-timer
- zero defense, less than zero actually
- zero physicality, again less than zero (the ironman thing actually hurt the team at times)
- horrible on the boards

I'm sure there are more, but that first item is the one that appeared more apparent last year. And especially the second half of last year. Which is why other posters have pointed out his declining production, most notably at ES (that you blindly keep dismissing as "parsing stats").

I've got news for you, parsing data is a very common technique in the statistical world to find patterns and trends that could be predictive of future events. The fact is that Kessel was on the decline, at least here in Pittsburgh anyway. So stop continually spouting off nonsense about people arbitrarily parsing his stats. It's meaningful. And the only reason you don't agree is because it paints a negative picture someone you like.

I'm not sure I understand what you're trying to say. Are you trying to downplay Kessel? Because everyone knows what Kessel can and cannot do.
Everyone knows you'll never get D or back-checking out of him, but you will get 70-90 points. He's also a playoff performer and a big reason why we won the last 2 cups.

There are other reasons why he was traded, but scoring 82 points last year was not one of them.

 

[IcedCapp]

Hating on Kessel now is like a married dude having an affair for 4 years, then dumping his mistress because "I could never be with someone so amoral they'd sleep with a married man."

Penguins knew what they were getting. They got exactly what they wanted. Won two cups. Then, when it suited their needs, "found jesus."

If you buy into it, ... this is where the new me stops short of an infraction. High five, new me.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

The circs in which you trade a Kessel are in no way comparable to the circs in which you trade a Malkin or Crosby. That comparison should be thrown out the window.

Yet that's what one opens himself up for when one makes broad, sweeping generalizations about underwhelming half-seasons, ES totals, giveaways, etc.

That said, yes, there's quite a few extenuating circumstances to Kessel's play last season. But it was still mostly bad outside that extra hot opening month and still mostly bad away from he who shall not be named. Some of that bad play definitely looked linked to a potential decline - there were a few too many times he simply couldn't get separation with his skating and get his shot off in a scenario where I felt sure he would have a year before. Some of it probably wasn't linked. He's probably still a really good player. Just don't think his strengths lined up with what Sid, Geno and the team wanted anymore.

Dunno why I felt the need to contribute to the posthumous equine flagellation but there we go.

He really wasn't though. His underlying stats away from JJ were better than the previous year, so the so-called "decline" doesn't hold water when that variable is accounted for.

@Soggy Biscuit

The foundation of your argument is essentially Kessel's point totals. You claim other posters aren't providing context but when in reality it's you that is lacking the context

Kessel had three strengths:
- speed
- high (offensive) hockey IQ
- a good wrist shot

That's it. That's the list. And the first two items on the list were only strengths when he wasn't pouting and/or being lazy. Are you ready for his list of weakness?

- he was lazy AF
- no one-timer
- zero defense, less than zero actually
- zero physicality, again less than zero (the ironman thing actually hurt the team at times)
- horrible on the boards

I'm sure there are more, but that first item is the one that appeared more apparent last year. And especially the second half of last year. Which is why other posters have pointed out his declining production, most notably at ES (that you blindly keep dismissing as "parsing stats").

The strengths and weaknesses were always there, and Kessel was always a huge contributor to the team's success regardless.

His '18-'19 "decline" at ES saw him score 4 fewer ES points and better possession stats when the blueline factor is accounted for.

I've got news for you, parsing data is a very common technique in the statistical world to find patterns and trends that could be predictive of future events. The fact is that Kessel was on the decline, at least here in Pittsburgh anyway. So stop continually spouting off nonsense about people arbitrarily parsing his stats. It's meaningful. And the only reason you don't agree is because it paints a negative picture someone you like.

Selectively parsing stats while deliberately ignoring key variables is a fantastic way to make a poor evaluation of the problems on your team.

Did you read the part where I said the ironman thing actually hurt the teams at times? His lack of physicality and willingness to play defense cost the Pens more wins than if he had missed a few games due to injury.

And "elite passing ability" might have been the most overrated part of his game. He was a good passer when he had time and space. Not elite. Sid and Backstrom are elite passers. Not Phil. And Phil was a panicky little female dog when that time and space was taken away from him.

So no. Neither one of those items get added to the strength list.

The other strengths are important, yes. But as I pointed out, 2 of his 3 strengths were no longer strengths when his top weakness, being a lazy ****, took over.

Kessel was 5th among NHL RWs in assist totals over the past 2 years behind only Kucherov, Wheeler, Giroux, and Kane.

If being 5th at your position in a stat over an extended period isn't being elite at it, then I'm not sure what is. Your subjective, unsupported take on his passing ability doesn't amount to much.

 

[Empoleon8771]

defending JJ is a weird hill to die on

Imagine thinking that someone saying "blaming Johnson for all of Kessel's problems is stupid" is defending Johnson.

But you're right, it's probably JJ's fault that Steckel concussed Crosby in 2011 too or something.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Playing 82 games a year and elite passing ability should be added to the strength list. Also, saying "that's it. that's the list" seems to be a way to downplay the strengths, which are pretty damn important strengths.

Personally, I don't give Kessel credit for playing 82 games a year. Kessel stays as healthy as he does because he actively tries to avoid physical play. It's not hard to stay healthy when you don't block shots, don't hit people and don't play intensely. To me, giving Kessel credit for staying healthy is about as fair as giving a bulimic credit for staying thin.

Kessel's playmaking, hockey IQ and wrist shot are obvious strengths, he's so elite at those 3 things that he's an elite offensive player overall. I'd also say he's a good skater overall, not as good as he once was but still good. I think that's about all you can give him credit for though, because he's heinously bad in pretty much everything else.

 

[kladorf2005]

Kessel is gone. And the kids that have replaced him are playing with more effort/intensity/passion than Kessel ever did. Sure they aren't as naturally talented, but they more than make up for it in other areas. And this team looks infinitely better than they did last year because of it.

So remind me why so many people ITT find the need to keep defending Kessel until the cows come home?

 

[ziggyjoe212]

Kessel is gone. And the kids that have replaced him are playing with more effort/intensity/passion than Kessel ever did. Sure they aren't as naturally talented, but they more than make up for it in other areas. And this team looks infinitely better than they did last year because of it.

So remind me why so many people ITT find the need to keep defending Kessel until the cows come home?

Galchenyuk has played literally 3 games as a Penguins and is widely regarded as a similar, 1 dimensional, player like Kessel. That prospect POJ is years away. So I don't know what you're basing this on.
And I also don't understand why anyone would bash Kessel? He came in and did exactly what was expected of him, and then some. He was a MAJOR part of 2 cups, and even almost won the Smythe. His 4 year stint was an absolute success.

People are defending him because there is literally nothing to bash him for. And people are confused why you are trying to so hard to bash him.

This is like bashing Dumoulin because he sucks on offense.

 

[kladorf2005]

Galchenyuk has played literally 3 games as a Penguins and is widely regarded as a similar, 1 dimensional, player like Kessel. That prospect POJ is years away. So I don't know what you're basing this on.
And I also don't understand why anyone would bash Kessel? He came in and did exactly what was expected of him, and then some. He was a MAJOR part of 2 cups, and even almost won the Smythe. His 4 year stint was an absolute success.

People are defending him because there is literally nothing to bash him for. And people are confused why you are trying to so hard to bash him.

This is like bashing Dumoulin because he sucks on offense.

Wasn't talking about Galchenyuk or POJ. Was talking about all of the AHL call ups. Thanks for playing though.

Kessel could have retired/gotten hit by a bus/won powerball/left in free agency. It still would have been addition by subtraction. Heck it was addition by subtraction considering the two pieces we got back for him haven't played

And I never said he didn't do what he came here to do. But he was dreadful last year. He was a big whiny baby that was dragging everyone else down with him. Good riddance.

Oh and one last thing, stop putting words in my mouth. None of your points had any relevance at all to my post.

 

[ziggyjoe212]

Wasn't talking about Galchenyuk or POJ. Was talking about all of the AHL call ups. Thanks for playing though.

Kessel could have retired/gotten hit by a bus/won powerball/left in free agency. It still would have been addition by subtraction. Heck it was addition by subtraction considering the two pieces we got back for him haven't played

And I never said he didn't do what he came here to do. But he was dreadful last year. He was a big whiny baby that was dragging everyone else down with him. Good riddance.

Oh and one last thing, stop putting words in my mouth. None of your points had any relevance at all to my post.

Kessel scored 82 points last season and 92 the year before that. Just because he doesn't play defense doesn't make him a bad player.

That's like saying Dumoulin is a bad player because he sucks offensively.

 

[vikingGoalie]